USDA Lifts Corn Export Outlook, Cuts Ending Stocks
U.S. corn ending stocks decrease from last month as USDA bumps exports to 3.3 billion bushels. Minimal/no changes in wheat and beans. https://t.co/FpMZKyhSPO
Gold and Silver Bull Market Persists, Keep Cash Ready
I had a great chat with Peter Spina @goldseek at #VRIC. We covered why this still looks like a real gold/silver bull market, why I keep cash ready, and where early-stage opportunity is hiding. Full interview 👇
Software Multiples Hit 2014 Lows Amid AI Fears
Software earnings have been quite resilient, yet prices have collapsed over AI worries. As a result, multiples are the cheapest they've been since 2014. Sometimes things are cheap for a reason, but what if this is another DeepSeek moment? Nice charts...
Holiday Sales Slump and Rising Delinquencies Hit Young, Low‑Income Americans
The one-two punch today of highly disappointing holiday retail sales and the highest consumer delinquencies since 2017 paints a bleak picture for lower-income and younger Americans. https://t.co/Bd2eX18BAU https://t.co/H1biY6UCIL
Permian Wells Surge 13% as Crews Work Smarter
The frac spread count measures the number of completion crews actively fracturing a well. In the Permian, the frac spread count averaged ~100 crews in 2025, 3% higher than the 2024 average. Yet operators completed a total of ~6,800 wells,...
Weekly ChartStorm Reveals Hidden Stock Market Seasonality Angles
You may think you know all about stockmarket seasonality... but this special focus piece from the Weekly ChartStorm lays out a few more angles and details that you might not have considered before: https://t.co/5sf2QCC8pE https://t.co/XBuZIufwiB
Dollar Weakening as Diverging Policies Boost Global Assets
I keep playing through the potential outcomes over the coming months and I have a very difficult time painting a bull case for the dollar. I expect: 1. Monetary policy divergence widens (more dovish US vs RoW/Japan) 2. Capital flight risk as...
Top Picks: Hundreds of Weekly Charts Highlighted
Our team probably creates a couple hundred charts each week. Here are some of our favorites from last week in the @CarsonResearch Charts of the Week. https://t.co/UIFr74RPu4
Brent Futures Steepen Backwardation, WTI Weakens
The Brent (white) and WTI (blue) futures curves are telling rhyming but importantly different stories right now Both have a backwardated front, depressed belly into contango past 2027 But Brent curve seeing steepening prompt backwardation (70c/bbl now) while WTI weakening (20c) https://t.co/5ZyF18ZPDO
Market
Great analysis in his note this week on some positives and negatives from @scottcharts. But breadth continues to be the one big reason to expect this bull to continue imo. https://t.co/WO4e9HXrem
Banking Chief Calls for Urgent European Payment Alternatives
European alternatives to Visa and Mastercard ‘urgently’ needed, says banking chief - https://t.co/TJ18SQs5Bg via @FT
Doubling Down: Shorting QQQ to Complement SPY Bet
Adding Some QQQ to My SPY Short @TheStreetPro I just shorted (QQQ) (to add to my (SPY) short earlier this morning): * QQQ $615.74 By Doug Kass Feb 10, 2026 9:26 AM EST
Analysts Anticipate Stable US/World Stocks, Brazil Crop Gains
All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand report due Tuesday at 11 am CT. On average, analysts don't expect major changes to U.S. and world stocks, though Brazil's corn and soybean crops could increase. U.S. demand will also be...
TLT's 15-Year Low ATR Signals Potential Breakout
$TLT : The Average True Range (orange) is now the lowest in over 15 years. Something has to give. Might the plummeting @truflation readings be a clue to which direction a breakout might occur? https://t.co/0pEENxYpXs
IG Spreads Widen Despite Equity Rally, Hinting Supply Worries
IG credit spreads wider +4bps from late-Jan yet HY wider by only +2bps. Last two days have seen +2.5% equity upside that statistically should mean IG spreads -2bps. May be nothing, may be worries about supply. A "balanced" IG...
Nio's $2.6B Battery Swap Bet Threatened by Fast Charging
Chinese EV maker Nio raises US$2.6 billion bet on battery swapping Company touts 100 million swaps, but fast-charging batteries are eating into the technology’s speed advantage, analyst says https://t.co/5WP0l9ZSXA via @scmpnews
US Stocks Look Strong, Yet Lag Global Peers
"The US stock market, while it looks strong, is actually much weaker than almost any other industrialized country.... So while we're doing well… everyone else is doing even better." https://t.co/7KavXe5LXh
Software Sector Oversold Bounce, Not Sustainable Trend Reversal
📺 SOFTWARE SECTOR: TACTICAL OVERSOLD BOUNCE, NOT A TREND REVERSAL Software $IGV is seeing a short-term oversold bounce, not a trend reversal. The sector remains broken after losing key moving averages, so upside is likely limited near short-term resistance like the 8-day....
Weak Data Fuels Bonds, 15% Growth Now Unrealistic
Soft retail sales, ECI flat for quarter and ADP jobs figures on the low end of expectations. Good data for the bond market, but that 15% GDP growth rate looks out of reach.
Bulls Hold SPY Above 680, Eye 7,000 Target
📺 BULLS TOOK CONTROL: HERE’S THE LEVEL THAT MATTERS Active bulls regained control after $SPY held the $687 level and followed through on Friday’s strength. Small caps $IWM and mid caps $MDY continue to lead, while $QQQ works back into key...
December Retail Sales Stall at 0%, Missing Forecast
December retail sales 0% vs. +0.4% est. & +0.6% prior; control group -0.1% vs. +0.2% prior (rev down from +0.4%); ex-autos 0% vs. +0.4% prior (rev down from +0.5%) https://t.co/BbJwHL35ne
December US Retail Sales Stall, Missing Growth Forecasts
US December Retail Sales comes in flat vs expected 0.4% - previously 0.6% m/m Core retail sales also flat vs expected 0.3% - previously 0.4% m/m
SMIC Beats Forecast on Chip Demand, Yet Remains Cautious
SMIC Earnings Top Expectations on Strong Chip Demand, Outlook Cautious Question no one asks: Wouldn't it have been good to have SMIC as cutting edge node producer given where demand is? https://t.co/BlRZpOYkmc
BP Finally Admits Debt Exceeds $50 Billion, Not $22 Billion
Regular readers know we at @Opinion had flagged BP had far more debt than the company's prefered metric (~$22 bn). Look at net debt + hybrids + leases + off-balance sheet items and it's >$50 bn. Now, BP acknowledges the issue...
Dollar Stabilizes, Still Strong vs G10; Yen Diverges
Greenback Consolidates after Yesterday's Shellacking: After yesterday’s sharp losses, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception. The unexpected post-election gains have been extended… https://t.co/s4awtQJ5o7 https://t.co/Xlf89Ydd1E
Small Business Optimism Falls, Uncertainty Rises
January @NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down to 99.3 vs. 99.8 est. & 99.5 prior … net % of respondents expecting a better economy ticked down to 21%; percentage saying it’s a good time to expand rose to 15%; uncertainty...
U.S. Large Caps Lead Inflows; High‑Yield Bonds Lose Ground
U.S. large caps dominated inflows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals ... high yield bonds saw most outflows, but broader fixed income universe was still positive @DataArbor https://t.co/l0soXmQF4S
Household Pessimism on Finances Rises, Stays Elevated
Share of households expecting to be in a worse financial situation a year from now ticked up in January and has been elevated over past year per @NewYorkFed https://t.co/fGqXylhwzD
Nearly 42% Expect Rising Unemployment, Survey Shows
Consumers still showing concerns over labor market, with average of nearly 42% expecting higher unemployment in next year per January @NewYorkFed survey https://t.co/ykN7Bdc2C0
Energy Sector Outpaces S&P 500 by 19 Points.
Quarter-to-date, Energy sector is outpacing S&P 500 by nearly 19 percentage points … best since first quarter of 2022 and one of best performance spreads (as of now) since 2000 [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/1vvb9Qf0Mh
Vanguard's $70B ETF Inflows Rank Top Three
Vanguard has already taken in $70b in ETF flows to start year, that's nearly $3b a day and more than all but 3 issuers took in last year. If VOO alone were an issuer it would be in 3rd place...
Consumers' 1‑Year Inflation Expectation Drops to 3.09%
Per @NewYorkFed survey, as of January, consumers’ median 1y inflation expectations moved down to 3.09% https://t.co/y6Jab93CyT
SPX Futures Rise, Bulls Hold Above 6900, Target 7002
$SPX futures +10 after Friday’s action put active bulls back in control and yesterday’s dip was bought off 6902—7002 remains the ATH pivot into Wednesday’s jobs report. https://t.co/bUhLX4Ywid
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Debt Monetization Fears
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
Infrastructure Software Set for Multi-Month Rally as App Vendors Falter
Application software vendors are struggling and providing weak guidance, quality infrastructure software firms' revenue is accelerating. Infrastructure software vendors are attractively valued now and their stocks appear poised for a multi-month rally.
Global Equities Outpacing US in 2026, Stay Overweight
"It is deja vu all over again." Yogi Berra The US stock market is doing fine, but the rest of the world is soaring so far in '26. This is similar to what we saw last year and is a big...
Record Wave of Large Bankruptcies Hits Weekly
How is this a healthy development? At least SIX big companies (liabilities >=$50M) have filed for bankruptcy EVERY WEEK during 3-wk period that began Jan 10, a level matched a handful of times since the turn of the century…last week alone...
Alphabet's Sterling Bond Hits Record £4.5bn Demand
#Alphabet sterling bond raises a record £4.5 bn, with £24 bn in bids. They may start borrowing on behalf of Bessent if it continues like this $GOOG
Dollar Steadies, Yen Rebounds; US 10‑yr Dips Below
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
Equities Edge up as Dollar Slips, Data Awaits
Tuesday: Equity futures slightly higher, dollar weaker and treasury yields nearly unchanged. Retail sales, Employment Cost Index and Import prices out today.
Dollar vs EM Hits New Low, Signaling Further Weakness
The Dollar versus EM today is down to a new low, which is below its level 2 weeks ago at the height of Greenland headlines. It's the Dollar versus EM you want to watch for future direction. The signal it's...
Live Premarket Picks: NVDA, TSLA, IBIT, SPY
⏰ Scott Redler’s #630club - LIVE Premarket Stock Update $NVDA $TSLA $IBIT $SPY ➡️ Free VIP List Newsletter: https://t.co/88cKgbrKKl https://t.co/K8dY5tEQml
Nvidia’s Value Outpaces IBM with Far Fewer Employees
In 1985, IBM was America’s most valuable company & employed nearly 400,000. Today, Nvidia is nearly 20 times as valuable and five times as profitable as IBM was yet it employs roughly a 10th as many people. https://t.co/indMwMz0TO @greg_ip https://t.co/HDl995cUhw
Harvest Losses to Acquire Google at $101
no, but may harvest the loss to pick up the google 100 at 101. #theyieldbook
EU Mulls 30% Tariff or Euro Devaluation to Counter China
1/5 Reuters: "The EU should consider either an unprecedented 30% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods or a 30% depreciation of the euro against the renminbi to counter a flood of cheap imports, a French government strategy report said on Monday." https://t.co/1HcSSyRLJx
Jobs Data Wednesday, CPI Hits Friday
All the data coming for the rest of the week. We're going to have Jobs Wednesday and then CPI Friday https://t.co/8DDq0vkOvD
China's Growth May Slip to 2.5% without Action
1/11 SCMP: "China’s potential growth rate could fall to about 2.5 per cent in the coming years unless action is taken, prominent Chinese economist Zhou Tianyong has warned." https://t.co/9xqpRhz105
Hour Glass EPS Spikes as Rolex Index Hits Bottom
Here are the LTM EPS for The Hour Glass. The turn came in March 2025, just when the WatchCharts Rolex index bottomed. Coincidence? https://t.co/1dQwTByVBg
BP's Looney and Auchincloss Tenure a Board‑Enabled Disaster
Further thought on BP: Today proves, if ever there was a need of further proof, what a disaster the tenure of Bernard Looney and Murray Auchincloss were for the UK oil major. (...all permited / encouraged by a weak board...)
BP Halts $750M Quarterly Buyback Over Mounting Debt
In view of BP's announcement this morning it's cancelling its $750-million-a-quarter share buyback, let me re-publish yesterday's @Opinion note arguing the British oil major couldn't afford it anymore. It comes down to debt -- lots of debt. https://t.co/23vNRD4Nsw