Political Clout Now Trumps Antitrust in M&A
There is a new meta for merger arbitrageurs, such that traditional antitrust analysis is outweighed by the acquiror's political clout. In particular, if the acquiror employs Mike Davis, their M&A deal is getting done. https://t.co/B0QuYUxxv2
Cut Fees, Buy Back Shares, Avoid Nontraded BDCs
My thoughts on how private credit mangers can rebuild investor confidence in this weekend's @barronsonline: First, they should cut fees: "A lower fee structure would go a long way toward improving managers’ standing with investors". Investors will return to the asset...
Tokenizing Securities to Modernize Capital Markets
Tokenization and the Future of Securities: Modernizing Our Capital Markets | U.S. House Committee on Financial Services Democrats https://t.co/DIllwrCy1U
Media Overlooks the Growing Syndicated Loan Market
It is as if the media is unaware of the broadly syndicated loan market https://t.co/7VASp4fFsN
Biotech IPOs Show Strong Avg Gains, Weak Median
Quick Biotech IPO stats for 2026, with six offerings: $AKTS $AGMD $EIKN $SGP $MANE $GENB - Average post-IPO stock performance (offer price to 3/20/26 close): +38%. Without $MANE, avg is negative. - Median post-IPO stock performance: -24% - Total IPO gross proceeds:...
Regulators Push Lower Bank Capital, Sparking Risk Concerns
Regulators proposed Thursday letting banks hold less capital, freeing billions for lending, while critics say it increases risks of crises and bailouts.
X-Energy Launches IPO for Small Modular Reactors
🚨Small modular reactor and nuclear fuel startup X-energy is going public via IPO. #energy #nuclear link to @axios’ @ChuckMcCutcheon’s item in next post.
Estimating Market Value for $1.5B
I’m sure there’s no desire, or rush, to go public anytime soon, clearly. But as a thought exercise, based on their current numbers: >$1.5b revenue >$250m adjusted EBITDA >10% organic ARR growth >ca$1.4T technology services TAM What do you think the public markets would pay for...
2‑Year Treasury Yields Surge to Highest Since July
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
Bezos Unveils Project Prometheus, Targets $100 B Raise
Digging into what Jeff Bezos is up to with Project Prometheus and that $100 billion fundraise. https://t.co/Z0imZiZxKt
Biotech Giant Earendil Labs Secures $787M Funding
Giant biotech round that hit right after I sent Pro Rata: Earendil Labs raises $787M https://t.co/NWt2bBA9Lr
Prorating Vs. Gating: Different Tender Offer Mechanics
Prorating investors in a standard 5% quarterly tender offer is not the same as gating or halting redemptions. https://t.co/p9tLyxgsOi
EBay's Depop Acquisition Targets Younger Shoppers
The @ebay acquisition of @depop from @etsy makes so much sense, especially because EBay has been trying to build its customer base and reach younger demographics. #ebay #depop #etsy #fashion #business
AGs Sue, Deal Closes Same Day: TGNA Winners
State AGs sue to block the merger in the am, deal closes in the pm. Wild ride for $TGNA shareholders - congrats to those who held for $22.00. https://t.co/hroSGkpRRo
Company Launches Nasdaq Debut as $HQ Tomorrow
Delighted to be able to share that we expect to begin trading on Nasdaq tomorrow as $HQ. After 7 years of work, it’s great to finally reach the starting line. $DMYY https://t.co/9tJ8iMXemJ
Wave Digital to Launch First Bitcoin‑Collateralized Rated Bond
"Wave digital is going to issue the first rated bond COLLATERALIZED by Bitcoin," says @EmanAbio https://t.co/oU2EeDw6Mf
Bearish Pressure Threatens Previously Bullish Deal Market
The best news may be in the rearview... Bears encroach on bullish dealmaking market https://t.co/Gc2v7KSjbQ
Predictive Analytics Flagged BVNKFinance Before Mastercard Deal
Crunchbase called it. Three months ago, we flagged @BVNKFinance as a likely acquisition target, & @Mastercard just announced plans to acquire it for up to $1.8B. That’s the power of predictions — you can spot opportunities early & move before competitors....
Iran War Slashes US M&A Deals by Half
The war in Iran has had a significant impact on the merger market. Month-to-date, just 6 public US M&A deals have been announced (worth a total of $56 billion), down -65% in number and -44% in value compared to last month....
Goldman, JPMorgan Enable Hedge Funds to Short Private Credit
Goldman and JPMorgan are among investment banks offering hedge fund clients ways to bet against the $1.8 trillion private credit market https://t.co/oylGukMJd0
Senior Deals Earn Fees, Then Face Distressed Capital
The 2024 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get paid. The 2026 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get stuck with new money that’s now also distressed.
Evernorth Files SPAC Merger, Launches $1B XRP Treasury
BIG: Evernorth files Form S-4 for SPAC merger to go public and launch $1B XRP treasury on Nasdaq
Kraken Pauses IPO After $20B Valuation Surge
Kraken raised at a $20 billion valuation in November. Four months later, it's shelving its IPO plans. 📋 Read More: https://lnkd.in/ekYqtFtm
McEwen Copper Targets $300M IPO for Argentina Project
McEwen Copper $MUX plans $300M IPO to finance Argentina project, executive says 📈📈https://t.co/fhxIiLErgw via @KitcoNewsNOW
Liquidity, Not Credit, Drives Crises; Public BDCs Undervalued
If you read one thing on private credit today, make it Sixth Street's investor letter. The highlights: “Crises don’t happen because of credit issues, they happen because of liquidity issues. "If you believe in efficient markets, public BDCs trading at significant discounts...
SilverVarden‑Contango Merger Approved, JV Details Upcoming Changes
No drama here. @SilverVarden's merger with Contango just got the green light from shareholders. What changes now? JV breaks it down: https://t.co/Pn3csAb89P
Analysts Keep Aggressive Targets After NBIS Capital Raise
Yesterday $NBIS announced a large capital raise. Despite that, Northland Securities reiterated their Price Target of $232, 99% above today's price. $150 ➡️ $200 D.A. Davidson Increased Price Target $169 Citi initiated a Price Target
White House, Oracle, Silver Lake Dodge $10B TikTok Sale Questions
The White House, Oracle and Silver Lake won't answer questions about a $10 billion payment that was apparently required to secure the TikTok sale. It's unprecedented. And officially undisclosed. U.S. investors and biz leaders should want answers. https://t.co/Y0n8MTHFKa
RBC Flags Revolution, Xenon, Arrowhead as Top Biotech Takeover Targets
RBC: Revolution, Xenon, Arrowhead among top #biotech takeover targets https://t.co/h1toH9szrU by @realJacobBell $ARWR $XENE $RVMD $DYNE
EIB Funds 290MW Solar and 350MW Storage in Italy
EIB to finance 290MW solar PV and 350MW BESS Italian portfolio #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/ivC4mfMTQa
Bill Dudley’s Market Mix‑up Highlights Investor Confusion
If Bill Dudley still confuses First Brands and Tricolor with private credit, literally six months after all market participants realized they were in the broadly syndicated loan and asset backed finance markets, then what hope do regular people have? https://t.co/aA33Nc1928
Jio IPO Set to Become India's Largest Offering
India Biggest IPO JIO IPO is coming soon.. IPO DRHP most probably will file in March. So, be ready for India's biggest IPO. #ipo #ipoalert #jio
FT‑Targeted Biotech Stocks Deliver Short‑Term Alpha
Good read on Biopharma M&A by RBC , little mention to Betaville, Bloomberg, FT , oand ofc the standout $RVMD Our biopharma team is out with an M&A discussion piece - given the importance of M&A to the sector, it is...
Altai Capital Presses OSUR Sale, Activ
$OSUR is a cash box with a diagnostic business attached. Altai Capital is pushing for a full strategic review/sale. Activist has also nominated two directors for the upcoming AGM. Altai's SOPT in the screenshot. https://t.co/tAJzNe8cMy
Credit Markets Tighten as Qualtrics Loan Stalls
While credit markets are open to many companies, they're starting to close for others. Qualtrics, which makes online survey tools, had to ice a $5.3 billion loan and bond deal due to lack of investor appetite. https://t.co/DE0BfMnHYT
Regulatory Crackdown Threatens Hong Kong's Booming Share Sales
Intensifying regulatory scrutiny is rattling Hong Kong’s financial industry and raising the prospects of a slowdown in booming share sales in Asia’s premier fundraising hub https://t.co/W795nBdXEj @kiuyanwong @depsebastian @julia_fioretti
Hyperscalers Bet $575B on AI, Need Explosive Revenue
For every dollar hyperscalers earn from AI today, they’re spending twelve dollars to build more capacity. That’s the bet embedded in $575 billion of capital expenditure this year. How fast does AI revenue need to grow to pay back this...
St. Patrick's Day Chaos Mirrors Bear Stearns Collapse
St. Patrick's Day 2008. Bear Stearns. Gone. People walking out with boxes from their brand new 47th St building. Sound of bagpipes from 5th ave parade. Drunk kids stumbling out of grand central all over the streets. Satellite trucks and...
Valuing Tokens After They Convert to Equity
If a token converts to equity, how do you think about the new valuation? https://t.co/sigF6mfZGm
Retail Investors Face Overpriced IPO Trap via S&P 500
What could end up being the biggest bagholder exercise of all time — the Operation Overlord of jamming retail investors with a comically overpriced IPO — is opening up on several early fronts. The latest is the S&P 500 index....
Forecasts Keep Rising, Yet Critics Call Them Irresponsible
Every month someone publishes a higher default forecast. > Fitch: 5.8% actual > Morgan Stanley: 8% > UBS: 15% worst case Every month someone in the industry calls it irresponsible.
Refinancing Wall: An Ever-Present Market Reality
Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
Sell When You're Thriving, Not When Growth Slows
Many founders wait until growth slows before thinking about selling or raising capital, but the irony is: buyers and investors are often most interested when a business is performing at its best. In this episode of Vista Point Advisors The...
SEC Plans Semiannual Filings as Enforcement Chief Departs
SEC eyeing toward cutting disclosures from 4 times per year to 2 times per year. Its enforcement chief just quit after only 7 months.
China Tightens Hong Kong IPO Path, Targets Red‑Chip Firms
China is clamping down on a key route for Hong Kong IPOs after a boom in share sales While stopping short of an outright ban, regulators have recently discouraged IPO applications from so-called red-chip firms https://t.co/bDNaEtHWkS
AMC Added 28M Shares, Raising $33M in a Month
How fast is @CEOAdam issuing $AMC shares? Well we have a guide. The 10K contained this sentence. Shares of Class A common stock outstanding—529,547,465 shares at February 18, 2026 And the prospectus today contained this sentence: As of March 16, 2026, there were 557,955,745 shares...
LENSAR Ends Alcon Merger Amid FTC Opposition
Kudos sir - this was a good tweet LENSAR Announces Termination of Merger Agreement with Alcon Research "We understand that the Federal Trade Commission intends to seek to enjoin the acquisition" $LSNR $ALC
Follow a 5‑Step Roll‑Up to Billion‑Dollar Exit
the roll-up in 5 levels: level 1: buy 1 business level 2: buy 3 competitors level 3: regional dominance level 4: national holdco level 5: $100M–$1B exit everything else is noise
Zero Personal Capital: Seller-Financed Deal with Payment Holiday
the vendor finance structure: – seller carries 100% as a note – 9–12 month payment holiday – business services its own debt – personal capital deployed: $0 legal common available
Future IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic Will Redefine Markets
The IPOs coming within the next five years with SpaceX, OpenAI, & Anthropic are going to be unlike anything seen in history.