LNSR Spread Widens, Credit Line Hints at Deal Delay
$LNSR spread to the $14 cash offer back to ~40% after the latest update. Co disclosed a credit line allowing it to borrow up to $9.2m. Market seems to read this, together with the last update, as a signal that the deal may not close. But hard to draw firm conclusions. Could also just be a liquidity backstop for ongoing operations while regulatory review pushes closing from Q1 to Q2 ’26.
Assess Central Mine Planning IPO: Apply or Avoid?
Central Mine Planning IPO Review Shareholder Quota IPO Apply or Avoid? https://youtu.be/YMNA0YqYa_g #ipo #ipoalert #cmpdiipo #centralmine
Liquidity Crunch Looms as Private Credit Withdrawals Surge
BlackRock restricted withdrawals on its $26B private credit fund. Blackstone got $3.8B in redemption requests. JP Morgan cut lending to private debt funds. When the exits close, the panic starts. https://t.co/OW9SaL4vZA
Maximize Founder Leverage After Buyer Diligence, Avoid Early Exclusivity
At what point does a founder have the most leverage in a transaction? The point at which buyers have completed all their diligence, fully understand the business, and can close on a rapid timeline. This is when you can extract...
Biotech IPOs Falter as Companies Pull Planned Listings
16March: Which companies recently withdrew their planned IPOs? And how much have the stocks of this year's #biotech IPOs risen or fallen this year? Read about the IPO market plus updates on $BNTX, $IXHL, and $INKT in my latest StockWatch...
MFIC Chooses Discounted Share Buybacks Over New Loans
Apollo's listed BDC, $MFIC, trades at a -27.2% discount to NAV with non-accruals of 2.6%, PIK of 4.8%, and software exposure of 11.4% While it doesn't stand out via its market average NAV discount, it does stand out on capital allocation....
Abra's $846M Acquisition Highlights Digital Asset Wealth Management
Abra / New Providence Acquisition III deal overview Digital asset wealth management platform $846.3 million enterprise value Symbol $ABRX PR: https://t.co/PKIWSdVOsf IR deck: https://t.co/4K0equHQqD Disclosure: Long $NPAC shares + warrants in $ARB.to https://t.co/2X7jjFOvzd
LEG Merger Arb Spread Swells to 18% Amid Turmoil
$LEG merger arb is getting juicy. Deal is non-binding. Spread now ~18%. Spread went from ~6% → 18%, mostly on recent mkt turmoil. Mgmt gave $SGI long DD access, cancelled the conf call, and multiple execs just got CoC bonuses. Downside ~10% if...
Desperate Financing Deals Tank Issuers, Boost BTC
I'm not gonna bother. This is another atrocious deal for the issuer. $MTPLF joins $ONDS, $BMNR, $IONQ doing a deal which costs 25-40% of proceeeds to get desperation financing. All companies that have done this deal have...
2026 Equity Risk Premium Update for Practitioners Released
The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential ingredient in hurdle rates in corporate finance, discount rates in valuation and expected returns in financial planning. In 2009, I pulled together everything I know about the ERP, in a paper that...
Longeveron Primed for Breakout Post‑placement
$LGVN - "Longeveron closes USD 15 million private placement of shares" Over 50x relative volume on its initial breakout last week over its 200MA, followed by multiple days of low relative vol consolidation... now, I'll be looking for continuation on the...
Close Deals in 90 Days with Five Simple Steps
the closing process in 5 steps: – step 1: off market cold outreach – step 2: NDA + 3 years financials – step 3: NBIO submitted in 24 hours – step 4: LOI executed, 90 day exclusivity – step 5: due diligence, reprice, close total timeline: 90 days
SpaceX IPO Targets June 9, Citing Cash Flow Limits
SpaceX potentially IPO’ing on 6/9 (69). Musk wanted to keep his companies private as long as possible so the IPO will set off rumors that private markets can’t shoulder the cashflow needs of SpaceX’s spending. The IPO is allegedly time to align...
Three Essentials to Close Any No‑Money‑Down Deal
the 3 things that close every no money down deal: – capabilities (your credibility stack) – capital (the structure that deploys zero) – closing (the process that controls everything)
Young Trader's £827M Blunder Toppled Britain's Oldest Bank
At 25, he was running a trading desk. At 28, he caused £827,000,000 in losses and collapsed Britain’s oldest merchant bank.
Iran Conflict Freezes U.S. IPO Pipeline This Week
Iran war chills the IPO market: No companies expected to price in the U.S. this week
Innovision IPO Price Shift: Is It Still Attractive?
Innovision IPO Price Change What's the Final Decision now? Attractive or Not? https://youtu.be/BL5QievtKsk #ipo #ipoalert #innovisionipo
Finance's Quirks: Gold, Coffee, and Glinting Aluminum
Three of my favorite stories (so far) from the highly educational and entertaining Lloyd Blankfein book. 1. Fischer Black’s (as in the Black-Scholes model) observation on gold trading that why not just leave it in the ground and trade on it...
Government's 71% Fee Threat Sparks Outrage
Leaving aside the bad precedent (govt threatening to shut down a co unless it gets paid), the fee itself is kinda insane. The entire enterprise value was only around $14 billion. So this would be a 71% “banker’s” fee.
Partial Recap During Growth Boosts Valuation and Upside
Because founders are famously optimistic about the future of their business, selling their company during a growth phase may feel like giving away too much upside. A couple things to think about in this case: 1. A liquidity event is...
Microsoft Goes Public: March 13 1986 Milestone
#ThisDayInTechHistory. March 13, 1986. @Microsoft has it's IPO. (Video courtesy of Considerable) #Computer #Software #History https://t.co/542DUOnheH
SpaceX's $1.75T IPO Could Trigger Market Bubble
SpaceX is targeting a $1.75T IPO. That would make it the 6th largest company in the world on day one. Nasdaq is already proposing rule changes to let SpaceX enter the Nasdaq 100 in just 15 days instead of a year. My...
Public Record Undermines Lazy Valuation, Raises Premium Bid Stakes
New on $MAPS: I think the public record is now strong enough to reject lazy, tape-anchored valuation—and strong enough to make a future “premium” bid answer much harder questions than management might like. Linked below. 1/2 https://t.co/ApS7y2tctJ
Swire Pacific Raises HK$1.79bn, Keeps 45% Cathay Stake
Swire Pacific has sold 153,059,000 shares in Cathay Pacific, with the net proceeds expected to reach HK$1.789 billion. Swire will retain 45.12% ownership of the airline after the sale. HKEX filing: https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0313/2026031300119.pdf
Bank Pull‑backs Expose Private‑credit Risk Like 2008
The part that rhymes with 2006-2008 is that Banks were providing warehouse lines to Mortgage Co.'s who would then originate mortgages & Wall Street would buy them, repackage them (MBS/CDO's) & sell them to the world. When delinquencies spiked, the...
2‑Year Treasury Yields Spike to Highest Since August 2025
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
From $1.6B Peak to $26.5M Market Cap
Peak valuation was $1.6 B in 2016, went public via SPAC in 2021 at $1.5 B, currently trading at $26.5 Million market cap. https://t.co/e77Em1jwbX
Merger Arbitrage Yields Still Low, No Arbageddon Yet
While we're seeing panic in certain areas of the market (private credit), it has not translated to merger arbitrage, where the current average yield of 10.8% is far below a March 2020-type environment. Once we see arbitrage yields nearing 20%, then...
Savills' $1.1B Eastdil Deal Forms Global Real Estate Powerhouse
Not just another #MandA. #Savills aims for #Eastdil's prestige as it pays $1.1B for #capitalmarkets giant. 'Creates a global #realestate powerhouse' #EastdilSecured #mortgage #CRE #investmentsales https://t.co/5wlSWrEAp5
IPO Market Collapses as Pricing Plummets Across Sectors
IPO market in the toilet. First was MiniMed pricing low. Then PayPay. Now MDA Space, which goes well below its as-converted price in Toronto.
Acquirers Are Already Courting Sellers—Be the Next Buyer
9 million businesses changing hands this decade the acquirer in your market is already calling owners already signing NDAs already in due diligence the sellers they close with this year were always going to sell to someone the only question was whether that someone was you
Simon Peckham Reverses Trend, Investing in UK Businesses
London’s capital markets have been dominated by overseas firms snapping up UK businesses. Simon Peckham is pushing in the other direction. https://t.co/8UIULznzFQ
Deutsche Bank Repeats Risky Credit Expansion Despite Past Missteps
When the financial crisis was heating up, geniuses at Deutsche Bank opted to buy more "highly rated" tranches of mortgage backed securities. With that in mind, when I see that DB says they are expanding their private credit exposure, I...
Coercive A&E Dominates $38B Software Maturity Market
The software maturity wall isn't a secret. Everyone has this chart. $38B in 2028. Mostly B and below. These aren't getting refinanced at par. They're getting extended. The only question is whether the A&E is consensual or coercive. And if the last...
OBDC's 25% NAV Discount Highlights Stale Marks
Blue Owl says the marks are real. Every sell-side analyst has a Buy. Yet $OBDC trades at a 25% discount to NAV. Finally had a chance to go through the portfolio. Found exactly what you'd expect: stale marks, understated software exposure,...
Critical EDGAR
The world's most important website is in shambles. What the heck is going on with EDGAR? https://t.co/pKsJXrmAal
JPMorgan to Demand More Collateral, Signaling Falling Asset Values
JP Morgan said it will likely (my interpretation) be demanding more collateral for their loans to Private Credit. That means JP Morgan believes the collateral values are down from the loan origination date.
PayPay IPO Priced Below Target, Signaling Market Caution
🇯🇵📍🇺🇸 Update: PayPay’s US IPO • Priced at $16/share • Below the $17–$20 target range • Raised $880M • Valuation: $10.7B The softer pricing highlights continued caution in the IPO market. via Reuters https://t.co/N76UYrg8Dt
SPACs Need Mergers, Not Just IPOs
My thoughts on the SPAC market today: “Not having mergers is certainly a negative because that’s what ultimately drives the entire sector. There’s no point in having a bunch of IPOs if you’re not going to see any material deal...
SPACs Flood Market as IPOs Raise $11.7 B
After a flurry of IPOs that raised $11.7 billion this year, a new crop of blank-check firms are joining a long queue: all the other vehicles waiting for the chance to take a company public https://t.co/LpBCk25L1r
Tilman Fertitta in Exclusive Talks to Acquire Caesars at $34
SCOOP: Billionaire Tilman Fertitta has been in exclusive talks to buy Caesars Entertainment for around $34/sh. https://t.co/Mz8usEYgRm
DoD Recruits Wall Street
Uncle Sam wants YOU, sponsor coverage bankers of Wall Street. @semafor scoop on DoD's push to hire investment bankers with deep ties to PE as it hunts for natsec deals https://t.co/lTRGjUesXl
Watch for Conflict: Banks May Favor Repeat Buyers
If you're a founder considering hiring an investment bank to help sell your business or raise capital, you need to do your diligence to make sure the bank doesn't have any conflicts of interest. Commonly, M&A banks will represent companies...
Scale Your Service Business with No‑money‑down Acquisitions
work with me and scale your traditional service based business via no money down acquisitions: expand your multiple and step into building a portfolio: https://calendly.com/josh-joshli/m-a-private-advisory
AI Giant Issues $25B Debt to Boost Stock
The AI poster child is issuing $25B in debt to buy back its own stock. Not to invest in AI. Not to acquire capabilities. To support the share price. That's the strategy. $CRM
MSTR Spends $1B Annually on Zero‑yield Assets
The capital structure of $MSTR costs just under $1BN to fund every year. The assets of the company earn zero yield. The carry is paid by issuance.
Biotech Winter: Funding Freeze, IPO Surge, Path to Thaw
Biotech Science at Less Than Zero | Ep. 955 https://t.co/4DXKsaKXdO [00:49] Biotech capital winter deep dive [01:17] Scientific leaps vs frozen markets [02:31] The 2020–2021 biotech bubble [03:42] Crossover funds fuel IPO surge [04:56] Interest rates freeze biotech funding [07:58] Negative enterprise value phenomenon [10:37] Why Big Pharma...
Testing if Best SPAC 2 Beats Its Predecessor
Excited to see whether Best SPAC 2 truly is better than Best SPAC 1 https://t.co/UZsTF1gaFs
USTs Slide as Record IG Issuance Fuels Supply Pressure
Oddly USTs under pressure ahead of what is expected to be a soft Feb CPI (0.2 core) print. Supply seems to be part of it. Yesterday's 11-deal IG issuance ($66B) was the biggest single session on record.
Upcoming Coal India PSU IPO: Retail 35% Allocation
1 Big - PSU IPO coming Soon ⬇️ Shareholder Quota ✅ Employee Quota ✅ Retail portion: 35% Full offer for sale IPO Profitable business - Good Growth 📈 More information posting soon. 💡 To be eligible - Subsidiary company :Coal India Stay...