S&P Equal‑Weighted Index Holds Trend, Forward P/E 18.2
Taking a longer look, we can see below that the S&P 500 equal-weighted index is right on its rising trendline, while the forward P/E ratio is at 18.2x. It’s hard to accuse the market of being over-extended, at least in equal-weighted terms. https://t.co/TXLAQj8QDo
Rosenblatt Cuts Meta Price Target to $1,015, Keeps Buy
Rosenblatt today lowered its price target on Meta Platforms $META stock to $1,015 down from $1,144 while maintaining its Buy rating
Keybanc Cuts Meta Price Target to $760, Stays Overweight
Keybanc today lowered its price target on Meta Platforms $META stock to $760 down from $855 while maintaining its Overweight rating
Markets Calm as Middle East Tensions Ease, Bull Persists
Stress levels in the financial markets have subsided a bit as the conflict in the Middle East enters its 5th week. Bonds and equities (and their vols) have moderated as the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is ticking up...
Nike at $43: Buy Signal After Fire‑Sale
Full Deep Dive Thesis - Is #NKE a BUY now at $43? I have been receiving DMs. Nike’s stock has been hammered. The brand everyone thought was untouchable… now trading at fire-sale levels. Even Tim Cook just loaded up. So the question everyone’s asking:...
SPY and QQQ Hold Gap Pivot, Spark Rally
Soooo. $spy and $qqq both held yesterday’s gap pivot and rallied. How did u do? #630club
AWS Poised for Its Most Consequential Growth Phase
Seems a good time to resurface this report on the back of the Amazon shareholder letter. The AWS Acceleration Thesis: Why Amazon's Cloud Business May Be Entering Its Most Consequential Growth Phase https://t.co/nNOw2zxMk9
Points 5 and 6 Define Cycle Durability, Not
I liked the $AMZN shareholder letter. I take point 4 with a grain of salt (trn is largely AWS as a customer and Anthropic). Points 5 and 6 are most important for the "durability" of the cycle debate. https://t.co/X7zQDnJ6YM
VOO Reclaims YTD #1 Spot After Massive Inflows
$VOO has been on a tear, +$8b in flows in past 5 days, now firmly back in the #1 spot YTD after $SPYM had shocked all by knocking it out of the top spot for a few days. I had...
BofA Forecasts 10.7% YoY Q1 Earnings Growth
BofA: YoY earnings growth is expected to be steady in 1Q (+10.7%) ex. Energy and Finance. https://t.co/ZqJkJKzBML
Record DII Buying Marks Renewed Domestic Confidence
In a month eclipsed by bad news, we have seen record DII buying in March 2026. The last time this happened was March 2020. COVID saw DIIs or retail investors, if we might call them, come out leg and toe...
ARK Buys Tesla Third Consecutive Day, Remains Top Holding
ARK Third day in a row of ARK buying TSLA. Today for ARKQ, $11.3m. This morning the funds were holding - ARKK 9.72%, #1 position - ARKQ 9.38%, #1 position, now add the 0.62% from today - ARKW 8.75%, #1 position - ARKX 2.34%, #17 position https://t.co/beWpv4aNho
Rare SPY DMA Breach Foreshadows 13‑16%
BTIG, with a “bearish stat”: “.. Since 2003, SPY has opened above both its 50 and 200 DMA while closing below both the day prior just three other times .. “.. Those three periods saw immediate declines of -13%, -16%, and -13%...
Travel Stocks Lead Large‑Cap Gains Amid Growth Surge
83% of large cap stocks up today with mid and small cap growth leading. Seeing travel stocks (airlines, cruises, booking sites) holding several of the top performing large cap stocks on the day.
Samsung Predicts Profit Surge From AI-Driven Memory Price Boom
MyPOV: @Samsung forecasts insane operating profit growth thanks to surging memory prices https://t.co/TtaW3vxXCN @SiliconANGLE @Mike_Wheatley “Nobody could have foreseen the ferocity of AI’s memory appetite, but it’s still a great advertisement for…” - @holgermu @constellationr
S&P 500's 200‑day MA Breach Fails to Spark New Highs
That's interesting. In all of these cases the S&P 500 was still in a longer term downtrend and did not make a new ATH following the close above the 200 day MA. https://t.co/THrRmHqWrG
Dow's 1,000‑point Surges Mostly Occurred Under Trump
Today is the 25th time in history the Dow gained more than 1,000 points on an intraday basis. 23 of those happened under President Trump. https://t.co/huMO8XedSx
S&P 500 Nearing All‑Time High, Within 3% Opening Gap
The S&P 500 is set to open less than 3% from the late January all-time high.
Microsoft’s $1.25T Loss Matches Tesla’s Entire Market Cap
This is pretty crazy: MSFT is having its 3rd-largest drawdown in 20 years, wiping out $1.25 trillion in 6 months. That's the entire market cap of TSLA.
Steinhardt’s Gut Beats Analyst Hype on IBM
New Article John LeFrere, an analyst hired by Michael Steinhardt in the 1970s, recalls his first weeks on the job; he visited IBM and returned convinced that its profits were headed upward. LeFrere recommended buying IBM stock ahead of that Friday's...
Magnificent 7 Slump; Broader S&P Shows Resilience
The Magnificent 7 are pulling back… hard. Meanwhile, the rest of the S&P 500 is holding up better. For years, a few tech stocks carried the market.
Trim ASML Position Amid Stretched Valuation Despite Strong Demand
Macro: robust EUV demand supports ASML. Key: €100m buyback, Q4 rev beat, large SK hynix order. Risk: stretched valuation despite 113% YTD gain. Insight: trim position to lock gains. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Staple Food Stocks Lag S&P by 39% Annually
We are at a year 2000 performance extreme on basic supermarket staples companies relative to the S&P 500. A basket of Campbell's, General Mills, Clorox and Conagra has underperformed the S&P by 39 percentage points per year for the last...
S&P Drops Three Bars, Volume Steady—Side‑liners Linger
SPs had 3 bars down off OP (negative) but pace of volume same as yesterday suggesting folks on sidelines. https://t.co/m3DyfjRblV
2027 Forward P/E Ratios Show No Market Bubble
How can we be in a bubble if these are the 2027 forward P/E multiples for some of the largest companies in the world: $MU - 4x $ADBE - 9x $CRM - 12x $META - 13x $NVDA - 15x $TSM - 16x $AVGO - 17x $ORCL - 18x $AMD...
Magnificent Seven Shed $1.1 Trillion in Market Value
"as of early April 2026, the Magnificent Seven giants have collectively lost $1.1 trillion in market cap." https://t.co/9cSOg8GBjC
US Tech Hyperscaler Valuation Premium Declines
GS: The valuation premium of the US technology Hyperscalers has fallen S&P 500 12m forward P/E multiple https://t.co/29BVbVl8AT
Broadening Forward Earnings Signal Bullish Market Momentum
"S&P 500 forward earnings continues to rise rapidly, while S&P 400 and S&P 600 forward earnings are also moving higher. The broadening breadth of forward earnings in recent months is a bullish development." -Yardeni
Berkshire Holds $373B—Enough to Acquire 480 S&P 500 Firms
Berkshire Hathaway now has $373 Billion in Cash, enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500: 😳 https://t.co/TK44SN9UsM
SPY Bullish on Earnings, AI
Macro: SPY supported by ~17.5% S&P earnings growth and AI/NVIDIA outperformance. Technicals are bullish but 150‑day EMA caps. Risk: higher oil → inflation, Fed hawkish shift. Trade: buy pullbacks; stop <150‑day EMA. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Overweight Tesla as ARK Pivots to EVs
Macro: ARK shifts from industrial semis to EVs. Key: sold Teradyne, bought Tesla. Risk: ARK flows will amplify volatility. Insight: Consider overweighting TSLA within risk limits. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Samsung Q1 2026 Shatters Records, Sales Double, Profit Soars
Samsung's Q1 2026 results have broken all previous records for the company Highest quarterly sales ever and highest operating profit ever Almost 2x higher sales and over 8.5x higher profit over Q1 2025 is incredible
ARK Adds $14M Tesla Stake, Tops Three ETFs
ARK buying 39,691 $TSLA shares in ARKK, ARKQ and ARKX ($14m) This morning, Tesla was in - ARKK #1 position with 9.94% - ARKQ #1 with 9.58% - ARKX #17 with 2.39% (ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF) No purchases in ARKW; #1 position with...
Casey’s General Stores Replaces Hologic in S&P 500 Lineup
Biolsi @Hedgeye_Staples has Hedgeye Nation Long $CASY $CASY Casey's General Stores $756.05, +8.28) -- to replace Hologic Inc in the S&P 500 following the acquisition of HOLX by Blackstone and TPG Global https://t.co/3sxRpNo2yY
Berkshire's Cash Ratio Spikes to 44%, Double Historic Average
Since Berkshire is an insurer, it needs a lot of cash on hand, and so ratio charts tend to be more informative than nominal charts. Berkshire's cash amount as a share of enterprise value has averaged 24% over 20+ years, whereas...
Anal
Here's a history of JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman's price targets on $TSLA In August 2018, he predicted that Tesla's share price would fall from $20.53 to $13. This made big headlines at the time. Today the share price is 15x higher....
Private Credit Market Nears Size of High‑Yield Bonds
Learned alot from the annual shareholder letter from Jamie Dimon on tailwinds/headwinds to economy including perspective on Private Credit. PC Mkt is $1.8T, HY Bond Mket is $1.5T, Bank Syndicated Leverage Loan Mkt $1.7T. Total IG Bond Mkt...
BlackRock Targets Invesco's QQQ Monopoly with New ETF
SHOCK: BlackRock is planning a Nasdaq 100 ETF in direct challenge to Invesco’s monopoly w $QQQ(M). Big boy product battle for a unique index, that’s not beta, not tech but it crushes everything. Big variable will be fee. My early...
Nasdaq 100 P/E Drops 23%, Russell 2000 Lags
"The Nasdaq 100’s forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) has compressed by 23% since the highs at the end of October, while the Russell 2000 P/E has only compressed by 9%." -Liz Thomas, SoFi
Buffett Sells Apple, Amazon, BofA; Adds Domino's
🚨WARREN BUFFET ISSUES FINAL BERKSHIRE PORTFOLIO FILING This is Buffet’s last update before he hands over the company’s new CEO In short: they sold more Apple, Amazon & Bank of America Google shares remained untouched Berkshire also took up new or added to...
S&P 500 Valuation Drops as Earnings Surge, Recession Fears Unfounded
The S&P 500's valuation multiple fell 18% while forward earnings climbed to a record high. The market priced in recession fears that analysts never shared. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/nsxnGQf0yN
US Chemical Stocks Surge 6% Amid Gulf Crude Squeeze
U.S. chemical producers like Dow are outperforming the S&P 500, with shares up about ~6%, as access to Persian Gulf crude (a key ingredient for plastics) tightens due to the Iran war
Google's SpaceX Stake Dwarfs Its Quarterly Revenue
GOOGL stake in SpaceX could be worth up to $120B. That’s more than their entire quarterly revenue… and about 4x GOOGLs net income🤯
All Magnificent 7 Tech Giants Down Over 5% YTD
How are the 'Magnificent 7' Tech Stocks doing so far this year? 🔴 Microsoft MSFT -22.8% 🔴 Tesla TSLA -19.8% 🔴 Meta META -13% 🔴 Amazon AMZN -9.1% 🔴 Alphabet GOOGL -6.2% 🔴 Apple AAPL -5.9% 🔴 Nvidia NVDA -4.9%
Netflix Valuation Too High, Await Pullback for Safety
Someone recently asked me about my scorecard on Netflix (NFLX). My current take: • Expected value: ~$104 • Upside: Limited at current levels It’s a great business, but not every great business is a great buy today. Price still matters. For now, I’m staying patient and waiting...
Tech Giants Face 20%‑Plus Slumps From 52‑Week Peaks
Current Mag 7+ drawdowns from 52wk highs... $NVDA -16% $GOOGL -16% $MSFT -33% $AAPL -11% $AMZN -19% $META -28% $TSLA -28% $AVGO -24% $ORCL -58% $CRM -37% $NFLX -26% $AMD -19% $PLTR -28% $MU -22% $IBM -24% $V $MA $AXP -20% $LLY -17% @finviz_com https://t.co/ll0K5GSWGx
OpenAI Nears $1 Trillion Mark Among Elite Titans
Felt like a good day to remind ourselves that there 12 public companies with a market cap >$1T and are here are some high-level financials on them. With today's announcement, OpenAI is worth ~$0.9T. (Data from Gemini.) https://t.co/44feWVSf4X
Three Unicorn
A trio of monster unicorns... the S&P 500 top 10 could look a whole lot different by this time next year JPMAM https://t.co/vgHNRwbucP
Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks' P/E Drops to 23
The 10 largest S&P 500 stocks' P/E has fallen to 23.0x.. it was above 30 just a few months ago JPMAM https://t.co/MthUHSpayR
Tesla Expands Japan Footprint, Boosting Model Y L Appeal
Macro Tesla targets Japan imports lead via store & service buildout. 35→60 stores, service 14→30; Model Y L adds family appeal. Risk: slow EV uptake, German-brand share. Trade: buy TSLA. — Viktor Kopylov PhD CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov