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Tuesday recap
Automation efforts are cutting down labor costs, increasing productivity and improving delivery speeds @Walmart per its earnings call. @DowJones
The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? https://t.co/WxrRxkwriN https://t.co/JKBVG5eT39
Value now of $1 invested 25 years ago: Monster Beverage: $8,025 Apple: $779 Nvidia: $761 Amazon: $301 Booking .com $217 Autozone $144 Sherwin-Williams:42 Caterpillar $35 Deere $29 Costco $23 Lowe’s $20 Starbucks $16 Adobe: $14 Microsoft: $14 McDonald’s $11 Nike: $10
📺 STOP WAITING FOR THE BREAKOUT, TRADE THE RANGE FOR NOW Get today's newsletter: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F My core message to everyone today: stop expecting big follow-through and start trading the range that’s actually in front of you. That’s the environment right now: quick pushes,...
We're LIVE with my accountable teammates - kicking things off with a BUY Hershey $HSY rundown by Biolsi @Hedgeye_Staples , also analyzing toilet paper
Despite the NYSE Advance-Decline line hitting new all-time highs again yesterday, the American Association of Individual Investors reported this morning that there are actually more bears the bulls for the first time since Thanksgiving. What do you think they're so...
You've got the same-day delivery guy with the influencer POV phone setup. The Walmart earnings presentation cover slide is a snapshot of the state of retail https://t.co/71SdhBOqeq
The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years, and is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets in that next few years. This points to why this could challenge the broader industry:...
(In contrast to the bullish view expressed yesterday on the Fin TV show - see SLINK's confident consumer outlook on @cnbc), we remain cautious on the consumer. This week we put on a three way pairs trade - long $AMZN/Short $COST...
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
TCS will still achieve my lower targets I think - the chart is already wrecked - targets given by Indiacharts Research
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...
the software playbook used to be: lock users in, protect the workflow, build the moat. a day before blowout earnings, @zoink told us the opposite, don't be sacred about locking in users in the AI era. "Start anywhere, go everywhere."...
Bitcoin's drop has coincided with a decline in the Russell 1000's Pure Growth P/E. What do they have in common? Both are long-duration, and are being shunned during the underlying rotation into shorter-duration (cyclical) securities (think value, dividend payers, Energy...
Chart of the Week - Defensives With tech in trouble (+a number of macro risks lurking on the horizon), defensives are starting to look interesting… Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 —after...
S&P 500 is up 77% over the last 5 years. These tech stocks didn't beat it: Amazon: +27% Netflix: +46% And these stocks got destroyed: Nike: -55% Disney: -42% PayPal: -86% Shopify: -18% Past winners aren't always future winners.
Narratives can crush multiples faster than fundamentals change. Markets are pricing “software is dead” as if AI will commoditize SaaS overnight. But enterprises still need governance, permissioning, audit trails, compliance, uptime, and data orchestration. AI may change workflows, but it doesn’t...
Recent rotation has helped resolve some of U.S. large cap stocks’ valuation excesses, but risks remain to the downside for U.S. multiples. Large cap growth’s sales multiple is still near its all-time high, at about 6X, and growth’s earnings multiple may...
Software is getting hit on fear of substitution more than evidence of structural deterioration in enterprise spending. When price action gets ahead of reality, the re-rating can be violent if the narrative cools.
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world. That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their...
I was astonished that Bryn Talkington's feet were not held to the fire today after she recommended (confidentally) $PANW yesterday. Four hours later the company guided lower and the stock tanked. Does the network basically not give a shit (about their most...
Last year, the S&P 500 gained 16.4%, but if you missed the best 10 days that dropped to minus 9.5%. Since '90, stocks have gained 7.7% a year, but if you missed the 10 best days each year? It goes down...
Here's ETF flows for the first six weeks of the year historically. This year is off to the best start almost by double. One reason is growing depth of cash vacuum cleaners. VOO, SPYM hoovering as always but there's already...
⚠️Almost everybody is piling into the SAME TRADE: Hedge fund net allocation to Magnificent 7 stocks is up to a RECORD 22%. This is more than DOUBLE the level seen in 2022. At the same time, these stocks remain among the most popular...
Using a 40% vol for TSLA, the stock dropping to $365 by March expiry is about a 1 st dev move. If normal distrubution the fair odds for that are 5-1. The 370-365 ps offers 5.7-1 It's not a rec...
At the current market cap, Topicus is effectively a “2015-vintage” version of Constellation Software $CSU $TOI $TOI.V
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
.@Cloudflare crushes analysts’ expectations on revenue and its stock soars in late trading https://t.co/RRvAoDmATi @SiliconANGLE @Mike_Wheatley “If those three metrics are moving together, it often points to enterprise commitment velocity improving…” - @Chirag_Mehta @constellationr
Vol Control funds are starting to re-engage. When realized vol cools, vol-control strategies mechanically add equity exposure. Vol ↓ → Positioning ↑ → Fuel for price. Still too early, but if realized volatility continues to cool off, this turns into incremental buy pressure...
In 3Q, @Walmart health & wellness”/pharmacy sales grew by 12.3% vs grocery & general merchandise sales, each up ~3%. In 2022, “health & wellness” accounted for 12% of Walmart U.S.’s sales; in 3 years that number up to ~15% @Adam__Josephson Is...
The market has been broadening out nicely as of late, and since the April 2025 Tariff tantrum low, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index has almost caught up to the cap-weighted index (34% vs 38%). It has been good to see....
Earnings growth for industrials is up more than 26%. It was expected to be negative this time two months ago. That is simply incredible. https://t.co/MTxPkrvtdA
Good news and bad news? Best quarter for S&P 500 revenue growth since Q3 '22. But this quarter is likely the peak for revenue growth. https://t.co/Dp33tx0bca
If you'd have told me Amazon just had one of it's longest losing streaks in history, I probably wouldn't have expected stocks to be flirting with new highs. https://t.co/kXBq6SpLEA
As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...
$AMZN - 210.00 was a key support...now sitting in dangerous territory. Market is still unhappy about the company's $200 billion CapEx.
One August 31, 2020, Exxon Mobil was kicked out of the Dow. It was replaced by Salesforce. Exxon is up 271% and Salesforce is down 32%. https://t.co/euMlopjZdV
Glick's Picks Prediction: New All-time highs coming for the QQQs this year. But Kenny Glick @HitTheBidRadio is Short right now. See what will change his mind LIVE on The Morning Show @StockMktTV Here's the link: https://t.co/C495u7NDBU https://t.co/Wr4Es0KkTd
Despite the YTD losses in the Tech sector, the EW Tech sector (the avg Tech stock) is outperforming the S&P 500 this year. Plenty of Tech names to own that remain in an uptrend as a market rotation continues to...
📺 FAILED BREAKDOWN, BUT STILL A SELL-THE-BOUNCE MARKET I expected a possible downside range resolution yesterday, but that did not happen – $SPY held $675–$676, reclaimed Friday’s low, and triggered a tactical reversal. – $QQQ broke down, reclaimed a key level, and gave...
- Anthropic catalyst - Pouring cash into buyback w/ conservative balance sheet - 5% annual gross profit growth since EOY 2022 - stock trading below 17x EV/EBIT per @fiscal_ai Very interesting set-up for $ZM over next couple of years https://t.co/75MsUcEE1b
$SPX futures +30 after holding key range support 6780–6790 again — that zone remains intact. For active traders, look for tactical RDR-type buys, then trim & trail into early strength while we manage the range. Resistance: 6880–6902 https://t.co/t51qiJIU4L
NEW: 🚨 Brian Armstrong says Wall Street underestimates Coinbase, even as it grows stronger through rising adoption, clearer regulation, and improving financial performance.
$qqq gave many ways to tactically adjust yesterday around a few key pivots. Now u can use some sell rules to manage the trade https://t.co/qldCOKB0UE
The transition of $AMZN (and some other MAG7 constituents) from a capital light business model to a capital intensive business model is more than three months old... the transformation has been measured in multiple quarters and not in months. It...
PANW strong q/good initial guide with CyberArk. The need for AI-native, integrated security platforms rather than fragmented point solutions is further increasing demand for PANW platform. AI increasing PANW’s value proposition-not displacing it. $225 PT..very well positioned🏆
$spx futures +40 after $spy held $675 and reclaimed $677 to keep the range intact yesterday. A few RDR’s across the board to cover some shorts and put on small risk. We’ll see if early strength holds...
#KEYS "Marginally ahead of current market expectations". Strong Update. ShareScope has fwd p/e 17.8 falling to 17.6 and fwd Divvy 3.9% each of next 2 years. With the 'beat' it looks good value. I hold #GTLY (which hopefully is also...
#BA. Results read well and market happy with them. SharePad has fwd p/e 27.3 falling to 24.2 and fwd Divvy 1.8% rising to 2%; it's getting quite a high rating but I'm happy to keep as my biggest position, as...
However, as the AI narrative continues to unfold, from euphoria a few months ago to handwringing now (over the commodification of the SaaS stocks and the unknown ROI of hyperscaler capex), the Might Mag 7 is showing some strains. The...
