Equal‑Weighted S&P 500 Beats Mag 7 Amid Market Dip
The chart below shows that the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the Mag 7 by 12% over the past 3 months. The last time that happened was in the fall of 2024, and the time before was the spring of 2021. Since the Mag 7 started dominating the scene, bullish broadenings have been rare, with most periods of equal-weight outperformance occurring in down markets.
Bull Market Still Strong, Yet Flattening Into Picks‑and‑Shovels
Another week, another headline bombshell. Such has been the norm during the past year or so. But charts are charts, and there is a lot we can learn from them in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. What do...
MELI Smashes Q4 Forecast with 42% TPV Surge
MELI posting a very strong Q4 2025: • Revenue $8.8B vs Est. $8.5B • TPV: $83.7B (+42% YoY) • GMV: $19.9B (+37% YoY) • Credit portfolio $12.5B
WBD Board Says Para Offer May Prompt Superior Bid
Para offer —> $31/shr with $0.25 ticking fee…. WBD board says “Could Reasonably Be Expected to Lead to a “Company Superior Proposal””
High‑Momentum Tech Overvalued, Risky If Market Weakens
Tech momentum is stretched. If macro weakens or earnings disappoint, crowded high-momentum tech could unwind quickly. This chart shows the performance and valuation of a high-minus-low (H–L) momentum factor within Russell 1000 Tech. Top Panel: H–L Momentum = Long Q1 (top momentum...
Semiconductors Reach New All‑Time High Vs. S&P500
Semiconductors hit new all-time highs again today. Not just on an absolute basis, but also relative to the S&P500. Here it is overlaid with Semiconductors on an equally-weighted basis for perspective. https://t.co/eujRGfCygY
Axon Beats Q4 Forecast, Projects 27‑30% FY26 Growth
$AXON Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.15 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.55 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.60; revenues rose 38.5% year/year to $796.72 mln vs the $755.56 mln FactSet Consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY26, sees FY26...
S&P 500 Holds Tight
SPX tight 3-month range of 4.3%.. and it's smack in the middle of it https://t.co/9KwEPpi3uu
Ritholtz Launches First Trend-Following ETF: A Watchlist Pick
Interesting… Ritholtz filing for first ETF. Trend following strategy. I like the Goaltending name/concept (a la Granny Shots another bball metaphor). Ben and Mike are the PMs. One to watch.
Selling US Chips to China Fuels AI Competition
tough look for Jensen and @DavidSacks and everyone arguing to keeping the China market open to older US chips (myself included) The case against export controls was always: sell to China so theres no market for their own. But they're...
50‑Day MA Misleading in Rangebound SPY Market
There seems to be a lot of talk about the 🔵50 day moving average for $SPY If you recognize the market has been stuck in a range, you expect price to cross above and below the 50, that is a...
NYSE and S&P 500 AD Lines Hit Record Highs
Both the NYSE Advance-Decline line and the S&P500 Advance-Decline line closed at their highest levels ever on Friday.
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm Recap Now Available
ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/BjOhiFzufn Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @MarketCharts @AlphaPicks @TaviCosta @0xkyle__ @SamRo @SubuTrade @SnippetFinance @OptimizedPort @topdowncharts
Pullbacks Signal Buying Chance Before 5% S&P Drop
“Markets are at a tactical–fundamental crossroads. Historically these conflicting signals precede >5% S&P 500 drawdowns. Pullbacks are opportunities to add thematic exposure. A clearer equity “index” upturn should follow once policy catalysts materialise lower mortgage rates via falling UST yields,...
Industrial Sector Hits 30‑year Valuation Peak Amid Optimism
S&P 500 Industrials’ forward P/E, at 26.5X, matches sector P/E in 2021, when earnings were impaired by the pandemic, and at 1.24X the index, is higher than at any point in the last 30 years. EV/Forward EBITDA, Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book...
SPY Holds $
$spy morning glance as $680 range support helps again while we get a few RDR tactical buys in broken areas for cash flow https://t.co/avz7fuVMj0
MSTR’s Upcoming SPX Addition Ignored by Pumpers
$MSTR the March SPX additions and subtractions are less than a month away and the announcement 10 or 17 days away. Why aren't any of the pumpers discussing the potential for addition? Have you given up?
ETF Inflows Hit $304B, Doubling Record Pace
ETF inflows up to $304b YTD, which is DOUBLE the all-time record pace from last year. $VOO at $30b, also ahead of its record pace by 6b while Vanguard as whole is already at $100b, a $3b/day pace, and double...
Apple Becomes Modern Two‑Year Note, Rallies on Risk‑Off
Pretty cool that $AAPL has become the two year note of the modern age. Risk off equals appl rally.
Technical Signals Warned: MSFT Decline and Mega‑cap Weakness
📺 $MSFT BIG LESSON & A BROADER MEGA CAP LOOK The recent decline in $MSFT was highly tradable and avoidable if you respected technical signals. It was a sequence of textbook warning signs: 1. The Double Top at $555–$553 2. The Unfilled Gap 3. Support →...
Apple’s 2026 Lead Threatened by Priced‑In Expectations
Everyone assumes Apple’s lead is secure. But 2026 may test that narrative. Leadership isn’t about new products. It’s about what’s already priced in. Expectations are the real risk. Read closely: https://t.co/L377mvJehE @willrhind @graniteshares
Watching QQQ: Will Early Strength Hold Above $604.50?
$QQQ Now we watch to see if early strength holds or fades — key question is whether $604.50 now rejects price. https://t.co/2w0irZyLwP
S&P and NYSE Median Stocks Outpace Nasdaq Median
The median stock in the S&P500 Index is up 6.7% so far in 2026. The median stock on the NYSE (> $300M Market-cap) is up 6.3% YTD. Meanwhile, the median stock in the Nasdaq100 Index is up 1.3%, while the...
National Bank of Canada Cuts MSTR Stake by Half
National Bank of Canada just sold 1.04M MSTR shares valued at $127.8M. Now holds 1M shares worth $122.7M. https://t.co/w8ishlNKSE
Process Stays Bearish on MSFT, AMZN, META, JPM, TSLA
Shorts The Process remains Bearish on these Bombs $MSFT $AMZN $META $JPM $TSLA That's where your risk should have been managed https://t.co/MykLEB8Umh
SPX Volatility Rises, Skew Hits Year‑to‑Date Highs
"We are already starting to see stress build in the derivatives market. $SPX fixed strike volatility has risen by roughly 1.5 vol points across the curve, while $SPX put call skew remains near its year-to-date highs" @t1alpha https://t.co/wXfaVxC4VW
High Yield Holds Steady While Financials Remain Short
While we're short the Financials $XLF , liquid High Yield $HYG hasn't signaled get out yet https://t.co/NhKXuZMmrb
Software Stocks Down a Third Since October
Software stocks have lost a third of their value since the end of October. https://t.co/gSO2zdCAMQ
Staying Short Financials XLF and XLY in Quad3
SECTORS: we remain short of the Financials $XLF and $XLY during a MONTHLY #Quad3 https://t.co/VUVE8GW3B6
S&P 500 Records Worst 17‑year Start, US Rank 69th
🔴This is one of the WORST starts for the S&P 500 to the year in HISTORY: S&P 500 is lagging the rest of the world equities by 8 percentage points, the worst start to a year in at least 17 years. The...
Staples Surge Ahead While Discretionary Set to Lag
Proctor & Gamble higher by another 2% today- Staples stocks like $PG continue to make upward progress, while Retail & Casinos underperforming within Discretionary @IBDinvestors @marketsurge https://t.co/XW54gpjWXm In tonights note, i discuss why Discretionary still could lag Staples for...
Range-Bound Market Hides Ongoing Leader Implosions
The market continues to hold up in a range but under the surface, day after day, we see prior leaders implode. Not all of them, but it keeps on raining the losers. If it keeps on raining, the levee's gonna break.. https://t.co/pg576VMyL8
Palantir Valuation Halves; Investors Weigh Buying Opportunity
The Palantir bubble popped. The company’s valuation has nearly been cut in half, leaving it at a significant discount compared to last year. Is it a buy?
Widening Spreads Signal Potential Prolonged Market Shakeout
Truth: “If spreads keep widening and banks keep lagging, this is more than a one day shakeout. If they stabilize, this was the market resetting positioning and rotating and not the start of a whole new regime.”
Microsoft Chart Teaches Seasoned Traders Clear Sell Signals
$msft is a great lesson. U can probably look at the chart. If ur seasoned trader, U can see all the spots it gave u to sell, or reasons to stay out of the way. https://t.co/zAq6WwJhfi
Goldman: Stock Suffers Third‑largest Century‑wide Daily Drop
“.. the stock’s 3rd largest single day drawdown this century (2nd was covid, 1st was dot com bubble.)” - Goldman desk
AI Winners Will Be Infrastructure, Not Software
AI winners aren’t who you think. Dell’s margin shift changes the AI narrative. Infrastructure, not software, may drive the next leg of leadership. Most investors are looking the wrong way. Read this: https://t.co/nY4GbIKIfM @graniteshares @willrhind
Risk‑Off Wave Hits Financials, Sets Stage for NVDA
We started the week in full risk-off mode. $XLF broke support near 51, $MSFT continues to deteriorate, and $SPX is back testing 6800. Meanwhile gold surged and Bitcoin broke down. I walk through financials, defensive rotation, and key levels ahead of $NVDA. Watch...
Companies Issue Equity Under Pressure,
$WHR. Typical. Corporate strategy has always been Issue equity when you have to NOT when you can. Stocks down 7% on a forced issuance. $ORCL same story still dumping ATM every day https://t.co/vIGKQDwhZB
Bullish Rotation Holds; Tech Trouble Offset by Commodities
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Bullish rotation remains in play. 2. Tech stocks still look troubled. 3. AI spillovers are helping (already bullish) commodities. 4. Newspaper stocks present a case-study in disruption. 5. Commodity stocks (as a group) look good. Overall, the US...
JPM Beats NII Forecast, Anticipates Deposit Growth in 2026
$JPM just raised NII to $104.5B vs $102.9B expectation. Expenses in line. Expects retail deposit growth to resume in 2026 from underlying customer growth and a reduction in yield seeking behavior.
S&P’s Calm Mask Hides Software Slump, Rising Defaults
The S&P 500 looks calm, but look under the hood. Software stocks are DOWN ~30%. Defaults are CLIMBING. Private credit is AT RISK. https://t.co/qJPf95n11Z
AI Scare Triggers 6% Drop, Software Basket Down 33% YTD
Another day, another AI scare. A Citrini blog post titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” triggered another AI-driven selloff in US equities today. The Goldman Sachs Software At Risk Basket fell 6% today and is now down 33% year to...
Hims Beats EPS, Guides Revenue Above Estimates
HIMS Q4 2025 earnings: • Revenue $618M vs $617M Est. • EPS $0.08 vs $0.05 Est. • Gross Margin: 72% vs 74% Est. • Subscribers: 2.5M (+13% Y/Y) FY26 Guidance • Revenue $2.8B vs $2.7B Est.
Future Proof: Spot Unseen Leaders, Not the Crowd
Everyone’s chasing what’s crowded at Future Proof. We’re doing the opposite. The next leaders won’t be the names everyone already owns. Off-the-record dinner in Miami on positioning and regime shifts. @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap Details: https://t.co/GgkP75CNl6
Large‑cap New Highs Outpace Lows: 78 vs 31
there are 78 large-cap stocks hitting the 52-week new highs list today... there are 31 large-cap stocks hitting the 52-week new lows list... #FinanciallyINsync #HighLowShow #marketUpdate #investing
Buy Stablecoins, Not Mastercard, for This Narrative
If you want to sell Mastercard on that story, you should probably buy Stablecoin exposure (but markets don't get that)
CNBC Has Dismissed HOOD, APP, JPM, PLTR Positions
It's a good thing no one on CNBC is still long $HOOD $APP $JPM $PLTR etc.
HalftimeReport Missed IBM Surge, Lost $30
Go to @HalftimeReport archives on $IBM recommendations (-$30 and -12%) Last sale $228 1. January 21, 2026 $295 and January 29, 2026 $308 Malcolm 2. Slink continuous over last six months (multiple prices, all much higher than last sale) Not ad hominem. That...
ASML Climbs 38% YTD Amid Market Uncertainty
ASML Holdings quietly floating higher in a sea of uncertainty seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. Consistent earnings execution and already up 38% YTD. $ASML #IBDPartner https://t.co/6bDmMq5jpN