Software’s Value Mispriced; Embedded Platforms Gain From AI
Software Is Not Dead. It’s Being Mispriced. AI disruption fears, multiple compression, and why embedded platforms may be the real beneficiaries of automation. Read here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/p/software-is-not-dead-its-being-mispriced
US Stock Market Hits Record Concentration: Top 10 Own 40%
🚨US market concentration BUBBLE in one chart: The top 10 US stocks make up a record 40% of the S&P 500 market value. At the same time, the weight of the largest stock in the S&P 500 relative to the 75th percentile...
McGough’s CVNA Sell Call Beats CNBC’s Coverage
Great SELL call by McGough @HedgeyeRetail on $CVNA that CNBC failed, once again, to cover
Buybacks Drop as Capex Takes Priority, ESO Dilution Fades
There are two reasons why buybacks are falling and likely to fall more 1. CApex as a use of FCF is deemed more important than share count reduction or SBC dilution offset 2. To the extent stocks fade the ESO awards provided...
Top Two Sectors and Their Leading Ten Stocks
Top 2 sectors and top 10 stocks in those 2 sectors #stockmarket #Nifty50 #ai #bess #energy
Walmart CEO: Tariffs Gone, Wages Drive Pricing
"If you refer to those Walmart earnings. The CEO saying that tariffs are no longer an issue when it comes to pricing, but rather wages and income…" https://t.co/0OABeT0az6 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy #schwab https://t.co/VX4my3zpe8
Calm S&P Masks Turbulence, 2026 Stock Picker’s Market
“The S&P looks calm… but underneath, it’s churning like crazy.” Great convo with @GinaMartinAdams on concentration risk, price-to-sales extremes, and why 2026 may be a stock picker’s market. 🎙️ Latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/6P2xtsblvM https://t.co/tohQDT7fRk
NYSE Advance-Decline Line Reaches All-Time High
If you were to track the daily net difference between advancing and declining stocks on the NYSE and build a cumulative Advance Decline line, you would see it just hit the highest level in history. https://t.co/Eg6hlzbbe6
Rising Car Prices Spur New‑Used Gap, Boosting Used Market
Interesting commentary from Sonic Automotive on their call and the affordability issues that are still here and possibly about to rise again: “And look, January was a hell of a month. Without the snowstorms, it would have been a magnificent month....
Earnings and Dividends Now Power Half of Market Gains
One positive aspect of the evolution of this market cycle has been how the market has become less reliant on multiple expansion. Earnings and dividends now comprise almost half of the cumulative gains since October 2022, with the P/E expansion...
PANW Posts Explosive Growth, $30B M&A Pending
$PANW: TR +15%, Product Rev +22%, TTM Software Firewall +42%, RPO +22% and 110 new platformization deals w/conserve but DD guides. $30B worth of M&A hasn't even kicked in yet.
PWR Posts EPS Beat, Backlog Hits All‑Time High
$PWR: more evidence of the DC+Grid+Power theme - EPS beat/raise with Year-End Remaining Performance Obligations of $23.76B and Total Backlog of $43.98B. Year-End Electric Infrastructure Solutions Segment RPO and Total Backlog Reach All-Time Highs.
Walmart Automation Slashes Labor Costs, Boosts Productivity
Automation efforts are cutting down labor costs, increasing productivity and improving delivery speeds @Walmart per its earnings call. @DowJones
Global Markets Outperform S&P, Gap Widens in 2025
The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? https://t.co/WxrRxkwriN https://t.co/JKBVG5eT39
Monster Beverage Beats Apple, Nvidia, Amazon Over 25 Years
Value now of $1 invested 25 years ago: Monster Beverage: $8,025 Apple: $779 Nvidia: $761 Amazon: $301 Booking .com $217 Autozone $144 Sherwin-Williams:42 Caterpillar $35 Deere $29 Costco $23 Lowe’s $20 Starbucks $16 Adobe: $14 Microsoft: $14 McDonald’s $11 Nike: $10
Trade the Range Now, Skip Breakout Expectations
📺 STOP WAITING FOR THE BREAKOUT, TRADE THE RANGE FOR NOW Get today's newsletter: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F My core message to everyone today: stop expecting big follow-through and start trading the range that’s actually in front of you. That’s the environment right now: quick pushes,...
Live: Team Picks Hershey Stock, Reviews Toilet Paper
We're LIVE with my accountable teammates - kicking things off with a BUY Hershey $HSY rundown by Biolsi @Hedgeye_Staples , also analyzing toilet paper
Record AD Line, Yet Bears Outnumber Bulls Since Thanksgiving
Despite the NYSE Advance-Decline line hitting new all-time highs again yesterday, the American Association of Individual Investors reported this morning that there are actually more bears the bulls for the first time since Thanksgiving. What do you think they're so...
Walmart's Earnings Slide Mirrors Modern Retail Reality
You've got the same-day delivery guy with the influencer POV phone setup. The Walmart earnings presentation cover slide is a snapshot of the state of retail https://t.co/71SdhBOqeq
Retail Private Credit Set to Reach Trillions, Threaten Industry
The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years, and is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets in that next few years. This points to why this could challenge the broader industry:...
Stay Cautious on Retail, Long Amazon, Short Walmart, Costco
(In contrast to the bullish view expressed yesterday on the Fin TV show - see SLINK's confident consumer outlook on @cnbc), we remain cautious on the consumer. This week we put on a three way pairs trade - long $AMZN/Short $COST...
China Cuts US Treasury Holdings to Crisis Low
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
TCS Likely to Meet Lower Targets Despite Chart Decline
TCS will still achieve my lower targets I think - the chart is already wrecked - targets given by Indiacharts Research
Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...
AI Era Demands Open Access, Not User Lock‑In
the software playbook used to be: lock users in, protect the workflow, build the moat. a day before blowout earnings, @zoink told us the opposite, don't be sacred about locking in users in the AI era. "Start anywhere, go everywhere."...
Long‑duration Assets Like Bitcoin, Growth Stocks Lose Favor
Bitcoin's drop has coincided with a decline in the Russell 1000's Pure Growth P/E. What do they have in common? Both are long-duration, and are being shunned during the underlying rotation into shorter-duration (cyclical) securities (think value, dividend payers, Energy...
Defensives Hit Dot‑Com Lows, Poised for Rally
Chart of the Week - Defensives With tech in trouble (+a number of macro risks lurking on the horizon), defensives are starting to look interesting… Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 —after...
Big Tech Lagged S&P; Past Winners Not Guaranteed
S&P 500 is up 77% over the last 5 years. These tech stocks didn't beat it: Amazon: +27% Netflix: +46% And these stocks got destroyed: Nike: -55% Disney: -42% PayPal: -86% Shopify: -18% Past winners aren't always future winners.
AI Won’t Kill SaaS; Governance Still Essential
Narratives can crush multiples faster than fundamentals change. Markets are pricing “software is dead” as if AI will commoditize SaaS overnight. But enterprises still need governance, permissioning, audit trails, compliance, uptime, and data orchestration. AI may change workflows, but it doesn’t...
US Large‑Cap Valuations Still Overpriced, Risks Loom
Recent rotation has helped resolve some of U.S. large cap stocks’ valuation excesses, but risks remain to the downside for U.S. multiples. Large cap growth’s sales multiple is still near its all-time high, at about 6X, and growth’s earnings multiple may...
Software Stocks Face Fear‑Driven Selloff, Not Real Decline
Software is getting hit on fear of substitution more than evidence of structural deterioration in enterprise spending. When price action gets ahead of reality, the re-rating can be violent if the narrative cools.
US Stock Premium at Risk as Tech Capex Rises
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world. That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their...
Analyst's PANW Recommendation Misses, Stock Tanks
I was astonished that Bryn Talkington's feet were not held to the fire today after she recommended (confidentally) $PANW yesterday. Four hours later the company guided lower and the stock tanked. Does the network basically not give a shit (about their most...
Missing Top 10 Days Slashes Stock Returns
Last year, the S&P 500 gained 16.4%, but if you missed the best 10 days that dropped to minus 9.5%. Since '90, stocks have gained 7.7% a year, but if you missed the 10 best days each year? It goes down...
ETF Inflows Double Historic Pace in First Six Weeks
Here's ETF flows for the first six weeks of the year historically. This year is off to the best start almost by double. One reason is growing depth of cash vacuum cleaners. VOO, SPYM hoovering as always but there's already...
Record Hedge Fund Bet on Magnificent 7 Risks Collapse
⚠️Almost everybody is piling into the SAME TRADE: Hedge fund net allocation to Magnificent 7 stocks is up to a RECORD 22%. This is more than DOUBLE the level seen in 2022. At the same time, these stocks remain among the most popular...
TSLA $365 Drop Represents 1‑
Using a 40% vol for TSLA, the stock dropping to $365 by March expiry is about a 1 st dev move. If normal distrubution the fair odds for that are 5-1. The 370-365 ps offers 5.7-1 It's not a rec...
Topicus Mirrors 2015 Constellation Software Valuation
At the current market cap, Topicus is effectively a “2015-vintage” version of Constellation Software $CSU $TOI $TOI.V
Mega‑Cap Weakness Could Drag Entire S&P Down
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
Cloudflare Beats Revenue Forecast, Stock Soars on Enterprise Momentum
.@Cloudflare crushes analysts’ expectations on revenue and its stock soars in late trading https://t.co/RRvAoDmATi @SiliconANGLE @Mike_Wheatley “If those three metrics are moving together, it often points to enterprise commitment velocity improving…” - @Chirag_Mehta @constellationr
Cooling Volatility Triggers Vol‑Control Funds to Add Equity
Vol Control funds are starting to re-engage. When realized vol cools, vol-control strategies mechanically add equity exposure. Vol ↓ → Positioning ↑ → Fuel for price. Still too early, but if realized volatility continues to cool off, this turns into incremental buy pressure...
Walmart Health and Wellness Sales
In 3Q, @Walmart health & wellness”/pharmacy sales grew by 12.3% vs grocery & general merchandise sales, each up ~3%. In 2022, “health & wellness” accounted for 12% of Walmart U.S.’s sales; in 3 years that number up to ~15% @Adam__Josephson Is...
Equal‑Weighted S&P Nears Cap‑Weighted Levels Amid Broadening Market
The market has been broadening out nicely as of late, and since the April 2025 Tariff tantrum low, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index has almost caught up to the cap-weighted index (34% vs 38%). It has been good to see....
Industrial Earnings Surge 26% Against Negative Forecast
Earnings growth for industrials is up more than 26%. It was expected to be negative this time two months ago. That is simply incredible. https://t.co/MTxPkrvtdA
S&P 500 Hits Best Revenue Growth Since 2022, Yet Peaks
Good news and bad news? Best quarter for S&P 500 revenue growth since Q3 '22. But this quarter is likely the peak for revenue growth. https://t.co/Dp33tx0bca
Amazon's Historic Loss Streak Meets Surprising Stock Highs
If you'd have told me Amazon just had one of it's longest losing streaks in history, I probably wouldn't have expected stocks to be flirting with new highs. https://t.co/kXBq6SpLEA
Equities Up, Trend Flattens Amid 4% Yield, Rotation
As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...
Amazon Slides Below Key Support Amid CapEx Concerns
$AMZN - 210.00 was a key support...now sitting in dangerous territory. Market is still unhappy about the company's $200 billion CapEx.
Dow Shuffle: Exxon's Rise, Salesforce's Decline
One August 31, 2020, Exxon Mobil was kicked out of the Dow. It was replaced by Salesforce. Exxon is up 271% and Salesforce is down 32%. https://t.co/euMlopjZdV
Glick Forecasts QQQ All‑time Highs, Remains Short
Glick's Picks Prediction: New All-time highs coming for the QQQs this year. But Kenny Glick @HitTheBidRadio is Short right now. See what will change his mind LIVE on The Morning Show @StockMktTV Here's the link: https://t.co/C495u7NDBU https://t.co/Wr4Es0KkTd