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YieldMax TSM Option Income Strategy ETF (TSMY) receives a Hold rating as its covered‑call approach fails to capture strong upside in bullish markets. The fund trails its non‑option counterpart TSM by roughly 40 percentage points during robust rallies, despite a design intended for upside participation. In volatile environments TSMY provides a modest 4‑5% drawdown cushion, but its conservative option writing limits aggressive income generation. The strategy’s high ~54% yield raises concerns about long‑term NAV erosion, making a Buy call contingent on adaptive positioning.
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
Okay. I've been seeing this make the rounds. It is just a large misunderstanding of the second graph, to the extent that it's drawing the wrong conclusions. The price of electricity from solar and wind in the US *has* flatlined...
SageSure successfully issued the $175 million Gateway Re Series 2026‑2 catastrophe bond, meeting its target size while pricing Class A notes below initial guidance and Class B notes within range. The multi‑peril bond provides reinsurance for Auros Reciprocal and Interboro across storm, earthquake, wildfire, severe...
Nifty50 10 Mar option chain at today’s close shows ATM IV above 20. That means option premiums are already elevated and the market is pricing serious uncertainty...Add crude oil above $90/barrel, and the macro backdrop is getting tense.😬💥 High IV +...
The Options Clearing Corporation announced that its existing S&P 500 INDEX PM/EURO flex series under the 4SPX symbol will be consolidated into the standard SPXW series. The change affects seven call contracts expiring in July and August 2026 with strikes ranging from 5,150...
The Futures Industry Association (FIA) issued a whitepaper outlining the transition to 24‑hour, 7‑day trading and clearing for exchange‑traded derivatives. It highlights the need for continuous clearing, robust risk management, and sufficient liquidity to prevent market instability. The paper presents...
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced plans to launch four container freight futures contracts on April 7, pending regulatory approval. The contracts will be U.S.-denominated, cash‑settled, and indexed to the New York Shipping Exchange’s Freight Indices covering routes between Asia, Europe and the United States....
The market is eyeing the upcoming Non‑Farm Payroll and U.S. retail‑sales releases after a week of volatility sparked by the U.S.–Iran conflict. Geopolitical tension has nudged the S&P 500 outlook toward the downside, yet it has not yet altered payroll expectations,...
At the FIX EMEA Trading Conference, industry leaders debated the impact of new transparency rules that require exchanges to disclose market‑data margins. The disclosures are prompting a restructuring of pricing models, which many smaller firms fear will raise operational costs....
"The average stock within the index has been nearly three times as volatile as the index itself (and the implied vol spread suggests the options market believes this will persist)." -GS Pasquariello via ZH
It's the weekend and the TradExchanges' computers must caddy for their humans on the golf course. But @HyperliquidX is always open for trading. The oil perp CL-USDC is where price discovery will happen this weekend as bombs continue to fall...
In this episode of This Week in Futures Options, host Mark Longo and CME Group chief economist Eric Norland dissect a volatile week across energy, equity, and crypto markets. They highlight heating oil, crude oil, and natural gas as the...
The VIX has entered backwardation with the S&P 500 only -3.65% off its 2026 high. $VIX $SPY $SPX https://t.co/WsMfvN6wRa
Oil surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983: CNBC $XLE $USO
A 2020 study applied an ARIMA(1,1,1) model to forecast the S&P 500 index for options trading, comparing it against a GARCH(1,1) benchmark. The authors bought undervalued calls and sold overvalued puts based on forecast‑price versus strike‑price differentials. Results showed ARIMA...
No one knows the future direction of the stock market from here. What matters is the system and the stop-loss, whether pre-defined or imposed by some indicator. $SPX #ES_F
A Cboe measure of crude oil volatility has surged to its highest level since 2020 https://t.co/4FBZMvXK9Y
ASX Energy introduced Morning Peak and Evening Peak electricity futures eight months ago to address peak‑demand hedging needs in the NEM. Trading activity has been minimal, with only 58 Evening Peak contracts and zero Morning Peak contracts exchanged across NSW,...
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: March 6, 2026 - The Long & The Short Of It..." Adding some longs & some shorts this A.M.... via The Lyons Share https://t.co/I3veVBLlHY https://t.co/AqMtKshBK1
Members MRVL - Close Call Spreads 5.40, +80%, pretty good pick in this mess ha
The S&P 500 E‑Mini futures are down 1.54% year‑to‑date, trading in a sideways pattern with support around $6,700 and resistance near $6,950. Traders are advised to watch for a break below $6,700 or a rally toward $6,950 and $7,000, which could signal...
$VIX Mock cheer for COR1M, up from the dead/all time lows during earnings season to last spring and last Nov levels https://t.co/Ykw6arRCk3
$MRVL "Trade Idea 1: Buy the March 6 Expiry 75/72 1×2 Put Spread for a 5 cent credit.' a bust, looks to expire
Futures opened strongly on Thursday, driven by robust corn export data and concerns over dry soils across the U.S. Plains, before turning mixed by mid‑day. Grain contracts gained further support from a firm global market and speculation that planting delays...
$COST "Trade Idea 1: Buy the March 6 Expiry 980/967.50 1×2 Put Spread for a 5 cent credit." sell to close a 980/967.50 put spread on any strentght in stock. Let IV fall then can buy to close remaining...
VIX at 23.75. Up 12% in a single session. Two weeks ago it was under 18. Fear doesn't arrive gradually. It arrives all at once. And we're not even past the first act. https://t.co/7Fy3joZKAi
Bearish traders bought 5,000 AXP 330‑strike puts on Feb. 10, netting over 800% returns as the stock tumbled 16% from $365 to $305. A viral X post warning of AI‑driven white‑collar job losses triggered a 7.5% single‑day plunge on Feb. 23, while...
Futures with the strongest uptrends are the ones with inelastic demand curves...now the consumer will have less disposable income than ever...grains and energies expected to keep a steady bid
TODAY, BTC OPTIONS WORTH $2.2 BILLION ARE EXPIRING 👀 Just like last week, we might see volatility again - especially if there are any developments in the Middle East. But the largest expiration, worth around $13 BILLION, is expected at the end...
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will hold a public roundtable on April 16, 2026, to examine the structure of listed options markets. The discussion will address competition in a quote‑driven environment, the retail investor surge, and the overall customer...
RBOB gasoline futures near $2.70.. implying $3.65 at the pump soon... close to the highest level since mid-2022 $RB_F $UGA @teconomics https://t.co/vQA49bLeZr
At the time this trade had zero catalysts other than $JPM calling for $30 and everyone chasing $Silver at 110+. It's never hwere the crowd is looking/chasing and if you study the thread there were months of absolutely nothing happening outside...
On March 5, 2026 Brent and WTI crude futures were trading near eight‑month highs as geopolitical risk and trade policy uncertainty intensified. Prices were buoyed by lingering US‑Iran tensions, which have kept supply‑disruption fears alive, while a recent U.S. Supreme Court...
Low vol begets high vol, to paraphrase Minsky. Systems trained on Powell, and they all have been trained on Powell, will struggle to interpret Warsh… especially as he himself will struggle with the same.
Robinhood paved the way recently to launch its own prediction markets, outside of Kalshi https://t.co/AbYwhSNbqm
Brutal day, the S&P 500 has wiped out around $800 billion in market cap, falling 1.4%. The Dow Jones is having its worst day of 2026, down over 2% 📉 Meanwhile the VIX (volatility index) is up 17% and is now...
🚨Investors are hedging against a market crash at a record pace: Combined put open interest in credit ETFs, $HYG, $LQD, $JNK, and $BKLN, plus call open interest in the Treasury ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 15.9 million contracts. This has...
Live look at $MRVL chart ahead of its scheduled earnings today. Options expiring March 20th show an implied volatility reading of 89.5%, which is about a (+/-) $11.41 move from the underlying stock.
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Draftkings is getting into prediction markets "Because prediction markets aren’t subject to state taxes, they are expected to have margins that are 10 to 30 percentage points higher than traditional sports betting" https://t.co/NZkaOy523j https://t.co/jXiPNCN8da
$ES_F bigger picture, weekly, still amazing topped right at the 1.618 extension, the 1.382 sits at lower value edge now, 6682.5, below that it gets real thin back to 6125 with AVWAP off 2025 low at 6460 important too https://t.co/dOkIMQUPwK
observation $VIX currently 25.18 makes for hard environment for swing trading and must stay nimble if day trading. My opinion, your wallet.
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr
Filtering across a liquid cross-section of ETFs and equities (and excluding earnings names) the Trade Ideas algo picks up the following. Note across the market IV and RV remains elevated, no VRP on avg based on our RV calcs. The...
This is really something that comes up a lot (21% of the time in the past decade according to 35 liquid ETFs spanning many assets) and very easy to lure yourself into a misdirected option trade
The recent action in EWY fits a pattern that happens frequently enough to be worth understanding the SHAPE of its vol. You will find: 🌙handy measures 🌙inspiration for your own exploration 🌙GIT notebook to get you started with yfinance data https://t.co/MkdqLvqfC6 https://t.co/LDHZibQS9H
Treasury (TLT) buyer 5000 December $89 straddles expecting bond volatility, tends to be bad for markets, good for TW MKTX
$AVGO "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 6 Expiry 322.50/330 Call Spread ($3.90) and sell the March 6 Expiry 297.50 Put for free." sell to close call spread on any weakess in the stock price, puts look to expire
$KR "Trade Idea 4: Sell the March 6 Expiry 64/73 Strangle for a 75 cent credit." looks to expiore, let IV fall then can buy to close or watch
