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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
For Traders, a Prague‑based retail prop trading firm, announced the beta launch of its Prediction Markets trading platform. The beta runs as a free monthly competition ending on April 9, 2026, allowing participants to trade on event outcomes. The firm says the trial will help refine the product before a possible full rollout. Prediction markets are rapidly expanding across retail brokers such as Robinhood, highlighting growing demand.
Wall Street’s tail‑risk hedges have surged as the Iran‑Israel conflict wiped roughly $6 trillion from global equities and pushed oil above $100 per barrel. Leveraged VIX ETFs such as UVIX and UVXY jumped 30% and 20% respectively in March, while long‑expiry...
Research by Connamara Technologies and Acuiti shows that 47% of traditional derivatives exchanges are actively considering launching prediction markets, though only 5% have made a firm commitment. Respondents identified market‑design complexity, system integration, and post‑trade settlement as the top technical...
Powell Industries, Inc. announced a 3‑for‑1 stock split effective April 6, 2026, with a record date of March 20, 2026 and payable date of April 2, 2026. The split will triple the number of outstanding shares while reducing the share price to roughly one‑third. OCC will...
Tickblaze announced a partnership to embed CME Group futures market data into its trading platform, delivering both Level 1 top‑of‑book pricing and Level 2 depth‑of‑market information. The integration supplies real‑time, exchange‑sourced data directly to traders while Tickblaze manages entitlement, reporting and compliance...
Crypto traders are turning to decentralized exchanges for macro bets, with oil leading the pack this week. Hyperliquid’s oil‑linked perpetual contract (CL‑USDC) generated over $1.2 billion in 24‑hour volume, overtaking ether and becoming the platform’s second‑most traded market after bitcoin. Open...
The London Metal Exchange (LME) announced it will replace American‑style metal options with European‑style contracts after a consultation that garnered strong support. Respondents highlighted that early exercise is uncommon and that the change would streamline the expiry process. LME Clear’s...
Futures across several markets, including agriculture, opened weaker as energy prices corrected following President Trump’s remarks that the Iran conflict may be winding down. Crude fell nearly $8 per barrel amid expectations of strategic reserve releases and possible easing of...
Massive Short Cleansing or New Bull Market? Crude May Follow Gas - The invisible hand can be quite efficient in autocorrelated commodities, and crude oil and corn producers may have just received a chance to hedge and bring on more...
Senior Loans ETF (BKLN) buyer 7500 Oct. 19/16 put spreads, been a play on credit worries
ICE May cocoa futures surged nearly 12% this week, climbing from $2,888 to $3,230 per tonne, marking one of the sharpest recoveries after a prolonged liquidation phase. The rally was driven primarily by short‑covering and logistical disruptions rather than fundamental...
From @Cboe: Monday's option volume of 72.4M contracts was 5% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 8 to 7. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30-day IV was higher for 256 and lower for 199.
#ES_F mean reversion strategy update. 13 trades since inception (May 21, 2025), 50% return (1 contract/$50K), 21% YTD. Sharpe ratio is 1.67. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/kptIfdqx6F
Cboe Global Markets announced a patent‑pending prediction‑market framework that adds a middle‑ground payout tier to traditional binary contracts. The new structure offers three possible outcomes—a $0 payout, a partial payout within a defined "payout zone," or a full $100 payout....
LATEST: Oil-linked perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid recorded $1.29B in 24h trading volume, surpassing ETH. Source: @Cointelegraph https://t.co/SjSRZQdxTb
Funding rates in #BTC futures indicate local oversold conditions, according to data from CryptoQuant. https://t.co/uNn1ErbfZf
A sudden escalation in the Middle East has driven crude oil prices up nearly 40% in a week, pushing barrel prices toward $150 and sending jet‑fuel costs soaring. Fuel, the airline industry's largest variable expense, is now testing the resilience...
Oil and Silver Futures cross back over in the $80's. Can't make this kinda stuff up if you tried. April Crude $85+, May Silver $89+
Crude oil futures benchmarks Brent and WTI surged to their highest intraday levels since 2022 on Monday, with Brent briefly topping $90 a barrel and WTI crossing $85. The rally was short‑lived, as both contracts slipped later in the session,...
Carnage in the short-vol trade. The Mar–Apr $VIX futures calendar spread collapsed through -$2, printing a > $2.50 weekly range and a -$3.18 low. That’s roughly a 6σ move, meaning the probability was at ~0.0000002% Translation: the volatility complex violently flipped into...
Australian Q2 electricity contract prices surged this week, with the New South Wales (NSW) market showing the sharpest increase. The rise follows the onset of the Middle East conflict, which analysts say is filtering through to Australian energy pricing. ez2view...
🚨 Oil just woke up. Biggest weekly move since the 1980s Then another 12% move today. Perfect trend day structure: 📈 Momentum leg 📉 Pullback to +1 VWAP deviation 💥 Buyers step in 🚀 Continuation higher Those were clean PDC trades all day. Pulled 6K trading CL today. Comment VWAP...
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) announced revised customer margin rates for CBOE Futures Exchange VIX products, effective March 9, 2026. The update introduces new tier‑based scan ranges, higher contract‑level maintenance margins, and increased spread charges across all tier pairings. A single VXW...
SpotGamma’s Compass, Equity Hub, and HIRO flow tools identified a bearish breakdown in MicroStrategy (MSTR) after the stock slipped below the critical $165 call wall, a key gamma level. The breach triggered aggressive put buying and call selling, prompting market...
Recent research demonstrates that machine learning can dramatically accelerate the pricing of complex derivatives and improve crash‑prediction analytics. A two‑stage framework using a Gaussian Process Regressor (GPR) trained on full volatility‑surface inputs delivers near‑instant valuations with sub‑percent errors for variance...
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
Puts have been selling off since the open on Mag 7, totaling $64M short-dated single-leg Puts sold today. 👇
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) is trading down 2% at $193.50 ahead of its Q4 earnings on March 12, marking its lowest close since June and reflecting a 10.1% year‑over‑year revenue decline. The stock’s options market shows a pronounced bullish tilt,...
$15M Call Spike on $SPY just before close. Trump said, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much.”
Ice gasoil futures swung wildly on 9 March, peaking at $1,381 /t before closing at $1,116 /t, the highest level since June 2022. The move mirrored a surge in Ice Brent crude, which touched $119.50 /bl and settled above $100 /bl – the first breach since...
Lawrence G. McMillan revisits his volatility‑market framework, highlighting how large gaps between the VIX (implied volatility) and the 20‑day historical SPX volatility (HV20) can forecast market turning points. A VIX‑HV20 spread above 15 triggers a short‑term buy signal once it...
The company is aggressively expanding, targeting over 300 locations system‑wide by 2026, with early test markets delivering higher average ticket sizes, increased transaction volume, and a near‑4% lift in comparable sales. Technically, the stock has pulled back from a recent...
SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) slipped 2.8% to $18.36, extending a 29.7% YTD loss and remaining trapped below the $20 resistance line. Despite the decline, options traders have flooded the stock with activity, logging 3.6 million call contracts and 1.3 million puts over the...
Stagflation concerns have pushed volatility risk premiums to record levels across commodities and equities. One‑month implied volatility for crude oil surged to 104%, the highest since 2020 and near 2008 crisis peaks, with the volatility risk premium now almost twice...
SpotGamma published a deep‑dive analysis of trade setups for Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, JP Morgan and the S&P 500, centering on option‑gamma exposure and realized volatility. The report maps where gamma concentrations are building and how volatility spikes can flag short‑term price moves....
The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has issued a public warning about Elite Option Experts, operating at eliteoptionexperts.com, for offering unauthorised investment services. The regulator flagged the site as non‑compliant, highlighting that it is not authorised to provide financial advice...
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged above 35, its highest level in nearly a year, as oil price spikes stoked panic across equity markets. In contrast, Bitcoin rose roughly 5% in 24 hours, trading above $69,000, diverging from the broader...
Natural gas futures surged past technical resistance, pushing the Henry Hub benchmark above $3 per MMBtu and breaching the $3.50 ceiling. The rally follows supply disruptions from the war in Iran, which have tightened global gas markets. Meanwhile, milder spring...
The VIX just hit 30. It's only been this high a handful of times in the last 20 years. Every single time was a great buying opportunity. VIX above 30 = buy VIX above 40 = go all-in VIX above 50 = do everything you...
Crude Oil WTI Plunged by 24%, Back Below $88, from $116 Overnight. Gasoline Futures -16%. Manic Speculation Unwinds. The Futures Market is where the Imbeciles go nuts. https://t.co/uWAJTgQkXb https://t.co/EdZk8SVqd6
A week ago I sent some questions to Blue Origin about its "monopoly money" stock options program. An hour ago, CEO Dave Limp tells the company they're launching a new stock options program. https://t.co/nNipz4qTtQ
South Korea ripped off the 50-day. 11:20am sweeper bought 149K of the 3/27 150C. Feels like the same trader who nailed the short last Monday. Reminds me of the old $DIA sweeper from back in the day. If you know, you know. $EWY https://t.co/35pRSiDF13
Did you raise cash last week or did you sell vol, deploy cash, and sell put spreads?
Crude Oil Futures could be unchanged soon $93.66 after the high of $119.48 kinda like that day in Silver Futures
Insane moves no longer insane, Silver tame today.... Silver Futures +$5 from LOD E-Minis +132 from LOD
Tiny bit of improvement from VX30/VIX. Watching to see what the next two hours brings. https://t.co/6We2gflp6M
Oil price futures, 2 years out: White: current blue: a week ago purple: 6 months ago Source: Bloomberg. https://t.co/IjF2clfIGe
$VIX weekly - When did we see it pop above 30 on Monday, then sell off for the rest of the week before? That's right. August 2024 and April 2025. https://t.co/a6U74uaYNp
$USO and $SPY pair trade in @IUTraders $SPY calls $1.7x's to $5.30s $USO $123.50s to $114s Here is bias/entry and game plans Nice work @CorleoneOffer https://t.co/IkJphEY3xo
Vix front contract is 28 SPX Level 6650. Down 4.6% from ATH Which one is "wrong"
