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Tuesday recap
Dow futures slipped 561 points, or 1.2%, as Brent crude breached the $100‑a‑barrel mark, rising 9.3% to $100.52. West Texas Intermediate also surged, up 9% to $95.12. The U.S. Energy Secretary announced a release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, part of a 400 million‑barrel IEA coordinated effort. Meanwhile, Iranian‑linked attacks have struck at least 14 vessels in the Gulf, heightening supply‑chain risk.
holy shit, @perplexity_ai computer build an options screener with AI built in for my parents in 35 minutes
Chinese exporters are scrambling to hedge yuan appreciation, driving a record $39 bn net foreign‑currency sell‑off in January and $100 bn dollar net sales in December. Regulators have issued informal "window guidance" urging banks to lift corporate hedging ratios to roughly 40 %...
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has slipped 3.8% over the past 30 days, trading near its year‑to‑date breakeven at $251.88. Despite a broader risk‑off shift away from small‑cap equities, IWM remains above its 126‑day moving average, roughly $250, providing technical...
It seems like everyone and their brother is aware of the record levels of put skew and hedging in the market by now. I wonder what magnitude of a tail event is required to break that loose? Is there a level...
WuBlockchain’s latest analysis shows Ethena’s deployed capital, a proxy for excess long demand, has collapsed to $791 million, an 85 % drop from its peak. The decline follows a 60 % reduction since Bitcoin fell to $60,000, leaving directional longs and shorts nearly...
Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) are set to report Q4 earnings tomorrow and Monday, respectively, after sliding near multi‑week lows—DG around $144 and DLTR near $115. Both stocks have struggled to breach previous highs, yet DG posted a...
Lawrence G. McMillan’s March 11 webinar highlighted the normally inverse VIX‑SPY relationship and how occasional distortions create trading opportunities. He explained that when volatility spikes while the S&P 500 stalls, the pricing gap between VIX options and SPY options widens. The...
JPMorgan’s Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) has been downgraded to a sell rating as its covered‑call strategy delivers sub‑optimal risk‑adjusted returns. The fund’s exposure is effectively unhedged, meaning a 20%+ correction in the underlying QQQ could translate into comparable...
Oil volatility is back 🔥 One VWAP Bounce this morning paid before 8AM. In strong trends, VWAP becomes dynamic support, not mean reversion. Most traders fade it… Professionals buy the pullback. Comment VWAP and I’ll send the free guide + Discord. #trading #futures #vwap
First scores on doors I've seen ... and it's boringly close to what we have been telling readers in the past week. At the current futures curve in oil, you get 2.3% in 2026 (roughly), with gas not doing much...
VXX tracks VIX by holding front‑month and next‑month /VX futures, rolling about 4.5 % daily. Because the futures curve is in contango most of the time, the roll forces VXX to buy higher‑priced contracts, creating a persistent drag that causes the...
SLB, the world’s largest oilfield services firm, fell nearly 10% as Iran‑related geopolitical tension pushed crude toward $120 per barrel, creating a valuation disconnect. The stock has rebounded to its $45 support level, suggesting buyer interest, and could test the...
📺 $ORCL EARNINGS TRADE & WILL MONEY ROTATE TO $IGV? In this Short video, I go through my defined-risk earnings trade in $ORCL using a $160–$170 call spread that costs $2 and could return $8 if the stock closes above $170....
How the hell was $SVIX (short vol) up 4.5% today with equities mostly in the red?? Someone was selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/oyCW72pqSw
Open‑ended private‑equity funds must hedge currency risk while promising investor liquidity. Hedging tools such as forwards, swaps, and options protect returns but require collateral that can strain cash reserves. As macro volatility rises, the need for hedging intensifies, creating a...
Traders suffer losses on options after U-turn in ECB rate bets https://t.co/IOlxq962Fs via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/EsJzYFwmea
5 Months ago....and seeing it play out well with OWL puts and plenty of other exposed names
In 2025, SDR‑reported cleared interest‑rate compression reached $170 trillion, a 73% jump from 2024. OIS compression alone accounted for $151 trillion, up 80%, while basis‑swap compression surged 212% to $1.76 trillion and fixed‑float IRS rose 28% to $16.9 trillion. Off‑platform activity expanded dramatically, capturing...
WTI crude oil remains well off its intraday high from Monday, but implied volatility - from the $OVX - continues to climb to fresh 6-year highs... https://t.co/VDf2X5NDWk
Fat VRPs but think vega is here to stay. as risk if risk premium here to stay..time spreads look decent https://t.co/IpY830RswR
The 2022 study by Pasricha, Zhu, and He extends the Black‑Scholes‑Merton framework by introducing a liquidity discount factor that reflects market‑wide illiquidity. Using a mean‑reverting stochastic process for liquidity, the authors derive a closed‑form pricing formula for European options. Numerical...
Despite 9 of 11 US sectors showing red, someone out there is selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/Wr7rXuRzOu
I currently estimate the notional size of the crude oil futures short the US government ends up putting on to be roughly whatever $10 billion in margin gets you. Attached tweet unrelated.
Figure Technology Solutions (NASDAQ:FIGR) saw unusually high options activity on Wednesday, with 33,905 call contracts—a 276% surge over its typical volume. The stock opened 21.3% higher at $39.59, buoyed by a $200 million share‑buyback authorization and a 90.7% year‑over‑year revenue jump...
Today's "Future prices are not like other prices" by @ByrneHobart is an outstanding preamble to tomorrow's moontower titled: oil options and the raw gamma paradox 🛢️🧩 a post that sniped me from whatever i planned to write about Byrne's post is free: https://t.co/ekmCXjtQQ1
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
Traders bought 22,328 put contracts on Centene (CNC), a 67% jump over the typical daily volume, signaling bearish bets. The stock opened at $36.35, trailing its 50‑day moving average of $43.20 and its 200‑day average of $38.33. Centene reported $49.73 bn...
i picked up a few $ORCL 4/17 $175 call options yesterday before the close & the pending earnings report... amazing how fast option prices can move with a ~+13% gap in the stock this morning... the calls i bought for...
Futures are at their lows of the day, but everything's quieted down since the start of the week https://t.co/sqcA2J1f9o
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Retendering allows a futures contract holder to sell a delivery notice to another market participant, avoiding the need to take physical possession of the underlying commodity. It is typically employed when the long side cannot or does not want to...
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A bookout is an early termination of an OTC swap or derivative, settled in cash rather than through physical delivery. It allows market participants, especially in commodities and energy, to unwind positions quickly when market conditions change. The process reduces...
Dow Jones futures slipped 0.1% as oil prices swung on the International Energy Agency's proposal to release up to 400 million barrels of crude. U.S. crude rallied 4% before retreating, reflecting uncertainty over the Iran conflict and recent reserve‑release chatter. Oracle...
The March WASDE report was largely unchanged, with U.S. corn ending stocks holding at 2,127 million bushels and global corn stocks edging higher. Meanwhile, the Middle‑East conflict is pushing nitrogen‑based fertilizer prices up, raising concerns over planting costs. Higher fertilizer costs...
The newsletter dissects recent S&P 500 E‑mini (ES) moves, labeling rapid sell‑offs as "elevator down" events that trigger failed breakdowns and short squeezes. After a sharp dip to 6588 on Sunday, the index rebounded to 6850, repeatedly testing the 6778‑82...
Nifty50 March futures settled at...132 points premium over spot. >> Traditionally this reflects healthy implied financing (r − d) in the system. In simple terms, funding conditions are comfortable and there’s no aggressive demand to short futures. >> That usually aligns with...
Absolute insanity: In just 2 hours, oil prices have now fallen -$10/barrel and risen +$11/barrel, with prices now nearing $90/barrel again. This is unprecedented volatility.
Financial Serenity highlights the BALI fund, which merges U.S. large‑cap equity exposure, systematic covered‑call writing, and futures overlays to generate high monthly income while dampening volatility relative to the S&P 500. The concentrated, growth‑oriented portfolio has outperformed peers such as JEPI...
A lot of people ask me for higher volatility alternatives for "capital efficiency" reasons. And on it's face, it makes sense. Instead of putting $100 in a 10% vol strategy, you can just put $25 in a 40% vol strategy. But there are...
Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
Crude oil’s rapid climb to near $120 per barrel has created a stark performance divide among hedge‑fund strategies. PivotalPath’s Regimes analysis shows managed futures delivering 9.1% and global macro‑commodities 8.8% when oil trades between $100‑$140, while the broader hedge‑fund index...
Software (IGV) buyer 40,000 August $80 puts $5.40 Oh god, what is Claude about to do next
SPX is up 100 handles since Friday close. 10 Delta "right tail" 3 month calls are unchanged. The right tail was more than fully priced. If you are congratulating yourself for "calling" a taco/war cessation or whatever....
The Hartford has deepened its reliance on catastrophe bonds, issuing a $270 million Series 2026‑1 bond that attaches at $1.6 billion and exhausts at $1.9 billion of per‑occurrence losses. This new layer sits above the 2023‑1 bond, which now attaches at $1.29 billion and exhausts...
Nothing has changed: the bounce was predicted on mechanical put monetization NOT fundamentals. Now we wait for VIX to base & move higher as posted for clients on more active timeframes. ;-) But big picture, risk has only increased for investors....
You didn't have to be a genius to look at the extreme backwardation in the Futures curve for crude oil to call the current price spike temporary, and overdone. #CrudeOil
On March 10, 2026, the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) announced that automatic‑exercise thresholds will be removed for several options whose underlying securities are halted or subject to corporate actions. The affected symbols—CEPU1, MGIC1, and IMMP—will not be automatically exercised across...
If you are bullish crude on reescalation, this is the buy zone .. Equilibrium in CL1 should be 83/92 .. Single prints yesterday on trump comments in the 91/92 area. Below $75 (the first Sunday gap when the war started)...
Top 5 IBIT options traded today (by volume and by notional) are all calls: https://t.co/LW4IxoGyqb
🚨 Call options on oil DO NOT indicate significant interest above $120/barrel. signals optimism oil-price rise may be contained. https://t.co/nlL7YR1ZsA
