Regulators Tighten Grip on Prediction Markets as Kalshi Faces $5 Million Ohio Fine
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and state regulators are intensifying oversight of prediction‑market platforms after Ohio fined Kalshi $5 million for unlicensed sports betting and lawmakers raised alarms about non‑public information trading on sites like Kalshi and Polymarket.
YieldMax MSTR Option Income ETF Loses 47% as 75% Yield Proves Unsustainable
YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF (MSTY) has lost 47% of its total return over the past year, trailing the 54% plunge of its underlying stock Strategy (MSTR). The fund’s 75% yield, generated by synthetic covered‑call positions, has been eclipsed...
Analysis Right, Patience Wrong: Missed Nifty Target
Exited early from 24000 CE… and of course it went straight to target after that 🙂...Booked decent, but market clearly said “thoda aur ruk jaata toh better hota” Classic.🤣💥 Target was 415...420, it printed 424. Sometimes analysis right hota hai, patience wrong ho...
Nifty Call Rise Driven by Flow, Not Volatility
Holding Nifty 21 Apr 24000 CE, avg around 350.80. Spot above 24.3k, but IV still relatively muted near ~17. That tells me this move is more flow driven than vol expansion. From a GammaGrid Insights view, price is moving in a positive...
Cboe Reports Record Daily Proprietary Index Options Volume
Cboe Global Markets reported a record‑high day for its proprietary index options on April 14, 2026, with 8.96 million contracts traded. SPX options accounted for 6.28 million contracts, split almost evenly between same‑day‑expiration and longer‑dated contracts. VIX options saw 2.38 million contracts, the strongest day...
HIP4 Launches Binary Options, Volume Surge Expected
HIP4 enables binary options on @HyperliquidX I expect an explosion of volume. $HYPE = $150 is just the beginning.
Bitcoin Climbs to $74,900 as S&P 500 Hits Record, but Options Traders Stay Cautious
Bitcoin surged to $74,935, up 0.7% in 24 hours, as the S&P 500 closed at a fresh all‑time high following reports of a tentative U.S.–Iran cease‑fire extension. Despite the rally, crypto‑options desks are still buying protection, citing unchanged long‑term Treasury...
Hedge Funds Boost Short‑Dollar Bets Ahead of US‑Iran Talks
Hedge funds have increased net short‑dollar exposure as renewed diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran raise expectations of a softer dollar. Bloomberg highlighted the shift, noting that the move reflects a broader tactical pivot toward currency plays. The...
Iran War Sends Oil Prices to Record Peaks, Puts U.S. Near Net Exporter Status
The Iran‑Israel war has pushed physical oil benchmarks to multi‑year highs and trimmed global supplies by over 600 million barrels. Brent futures jumped 64% in March, while U.S. crude exports surged close to a record, bringing America within striking distance of...
Trading Technologies’ Green Sees TT Shifting Into Multiasset ‘Economic User’ Platform
Coinbase is accelerating its transformation into an "everything exchange" by integrating Deribit and expanding its product suite. The platform now offers spot crypto, futures, perpetuals, options, and newly added prediction markets. Within the next month, Coinbase will launch equity perpetual...
Goldman Sachs Flags Overvalued US Stocks, Unveils Six Options‑Based Hedge Strategies
Goldman Sachs warned that US stocks are overvalued and outlined six hedging transactions that use options structures to limit downside while targeting returns of up to 13.2 times the investment. The bank’s report, released April 16, recommends SPY put spreads,...
Investors Pull $4.8 B From Tech and Bond ETFs as Market Cool‑Down Accelerates
On April 14, 2026 investors dumped more than $4.8 billion from technology‑focused and intermediate‑term Treasury ETFs, led by a $1.02 billion outflow from the leveraged semiconductor fund SOXL and a $668 million pull from iShares 7‑10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF). The moves underscore a broad...
Tesla, IBM and Intel Report Earnings Next Week — Here’s the Best Way to Play a Volatile Market
Earnings season kicks off next week with high‑profile reports from Tesla, IBM, Intel and UnitedHealth, prompting a surge in implied volatility for their options. The strategy outlined favors buying short‑term ATM straddles—particularly the April 24 expirations—and exiting after the earnings‑day close...
![[RE-SEND] 4 Green Days This Week For SPX. Can It Close Up With 5? April 17 Plan](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CQcs!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b003827-c0d7-41e5-9f3c-34abd02bf083_198x198.png)
[RE-SEND] 4 Green Days This Week For SPX. Can It Close Up With 5? April 17 Plan
The S&P 500 e‑mini (ES) has surged roughly 700 points in the past two weeks, marking one of the strongest short‑term rallies in years. The author attributes the move to a classic "Failed Breakdown" pattern, where institutions dump the contract,...
Volatility Crushed; Oil Index Still in Crisis Zone
Volatility is getting crushed across the board. While Oil vol $OVX has declined, it is still in the crisis zone. This is called a non-confirmation.
FX Curbs Lift Hedging Costs 70 Bps, Dampening Demand for Indian Bonds
India's Reserve Bank has tightened foreign‑exchange rules, sending onshore hedging costs up 30 basis points and offshore non‑deliverable forward (NDF) costs up nearly 70 basis points. The surge in hedging expenses wipes out most of the carry on Indian government...
Bitcoin Tops $74,900 as S&P 500 Hits Record, but Options Market Isn’t Buying the Peace Trade
Bitcoin surged to $74,900, up 0.7% in the past day, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted record‑high closes amid reports of a tentative U.S.–Iran cease‑fire extension. Despite the equity rally, options traders remain cautious, holding back on bullish bets in...
Abaxx Exchange
Abaxx Exchange, a Singapore‑based Recognised Market Operator, launched in June 2024 offering centrally‑cleared, physically deliverable LNG futures across three regional contracts. Since then it has expanded its suite to include nickel‑sulphate, gold kilobar, carbon‑offset and the world’s first exchange‑traded solar futures,...
Self‑run Trading Delivers 300% Gains, 100k Weeks
The numbers hit very differently when you have a 7 figure portfolio and actually know how to trade The Black List trades and strike prices and expiration dates has always been curated by me and me alone I didn’t have an assistants/admins...
Time Decay Can Yield 18% Return in Two Months
This Trade Made 18% in 2 Months (How Time Decay Affects Your Options Trades) #optionstrader #tradingstrategy #tradingeducation #stockmarket
US Futures Near Record as Iran Peace Hopes and Earnings Drive Large‑Cap Stocks
U.S. equity futures held steady just shy of record levels on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 futures barely changed after a near‑record close. Investors are balancing optimism over a potential Iran peace settlement with fresh earnings reports from heavyweight banks...
Identify Market Mode with VWAP Before Trading
Range day 📉 — inside VWAP bands, rotation, fade the extremes. VWAP is the magnet. Trend day 🚀 — outside the bands, price discovery. Don’t fade. Wait for the pullback, enter with strength. Same chart. Different playbook. Most traders lose because they mix...
Missing ES Trade Highlights Need for Better Monitoring
I gotta start looking at ES for trades more because had I been paying attention I would've taken that buy 😫.
Traders Revive Short-Volatility Bets as Peace Hopes Calm Markets
Traders are reviving short‑volatility and carry strategies as optimism over a US‑Iran cease‑fire eases market volatility. Bond, currency and equity volatility indices have fallen daily since late March, with US 10‑year yields steady at 4.28% and Treasury futures volume at...
Negative BTC Funding, Puts Surge, Yet Uptrend Expected
Funding rate is negative on $BTC. Most options traders are in puts. There have been some occasions where this has happened. Most of the time, this was at the bottom of the markets. In 80%+ of the events, markets trended up afterward, causing...
US Probes Suspicious Oil Trades Made Before Trump Iran Pivots
John Lothian News is rolling out “Auditions,” a new JLN topic page that invites market‑related entertainment creators to showcase scripts, books, documentaries and poems to its audience. The inaugural offering is a feature‑film script titled “The Front Runner,” dramatizing a...
Implications of WTI Oil Futures In Backwardation Amid the Supply Crunch
WTI oil futures have entered backwardation, with near‑term May and June contracts trading above the more stable December contract. Backwardation signals a tight market and generates a positive roll yield, contrasting with the negative roll yield seen in contango periods....
CEO Warns Market Underestimates Oil’s Future Price
As we mostly focus on the front month futures contract and we await the finality to the war and a full reopening of the Strait, I will mention the December contract which stands at about $76.50 as of this writing,...
Positive Gamma Exposure Keeps SPY Near $700
Gamma exposure update for $SPY: There's still a ton of positive exposure around spot, and $700 is still the MVC. I am expecting some chop around $700 today. I am not interested in downside. Will see how things change in...
BtcDana Unveils Integrated Crypto CFD Platform with 1:500 Leverage for Volatility‑Driven Traders
BtcDana has launched an all‑in‑one CFD platform that consolidates crypto, forex, index, metals and stock contracts under a single interface, offering leverage up to 1:500. The solution aims to cut friction for traders who shift between markets amid heightened volatility,...
CFTC Chair Faces Bipartisan Pushback Over Crypto Prediction Markets
"Sports and war prediction markets and crypto-backed perpetual futures came under fire during a House committee hearing Thursday." CFTC Chair Mike Selig Faces Bipartisan Pushback on Prediction Markets, Hyperliquid Perps https://t.co/eRt5FRHcd1
11 Consecutive Upside Days Confirm 200‑DMA Break
Haven't talked nearly enough about the 11 up-days or whatever coming off a clean break and 'confirmation' of the break of the 200 DMA $ES_F https://t.co/Zpw85DQaN9
Cheap Butterflies As Speculative Trades (Preview)
Lawrence G. McMillan’s April 16, 2026 preview shows how butterfly spreads—often viewed as conservative, multi‑leg options—can be deployed as low‑cost speculative trades. By buying and selling calls (or puts) at three strikes, traders can lock in a maximum loss equal to the...
VIX Dips Below 18, S&P Eyes Sixth Record High
$VIX back under 18 as the S&P 500 is poised to notch its 6th record high of the year https://t.co/dTiaN91ynn
Gasoline Futures Hold Strong, AAA Avg Near $4.10
Gasoline future remain bid up pretty well.. $3.15 on RBOB will keep the AAA average near $4.10. https://t.co/frWo9xgFHU
Coinbase’s ‘Everything Exchange’ Strategy Bets on 24/7 Crypto, Derivatives and Deribit Integration
Coinbase announced an "Everything Exchange" that will combine 24‑hour spot trading, crypto derivatives and an integration with Deribit’s futures platform. The unified product is designed to give retail and institutional users a single interface for trading, clearing and margin across...
Missing Protection at Market Peaks Leads to Regret
Remember 3 weeks ago when you were mad at yourself for not buying protection/insurance when markets were at their all time highs and the vix was in the teens...? https://t.co/xBbSHvbDuL
HYG Options Shockingly Cheap, IV30 at 5.1%
Always seems crazy how cheap $HYG options May be first time I actually looked at the IV30, it is 5.1% lmao
A Devilish Question for Option Sellers: Which VRP Is Higher?
The article challenges the common view that options are systematically overpriced by examining the volatility risk premium (VRP) through the lens of implied versus realized volatility. Using 30‑day data on the high‑yield ETF HYG, it shows implied volatility consistently sits...
Judges Question Kalshi's Roulette Betting; CFTC Likely Blocks It
Federal judges push Kalshi lawyers on what would stop them from offering event contracts on the outcome of a roulette wheel; Kalshi says the CFTC likely wouldn't allow it, without giving an explanation why
Chinese Stocks Offer Undervalued Upside, Says Strategist
🇨🇳📈 Are investors underestimating the potential upside in Chinese equities? @LizThomasStrat dives into the risk/reward setup on MRKT Call https://t.co/hKMhhCNpDm
Judge Questions Financial Impact of Yankees‑Red Sox Game
"Would the Yankees beating the Red Sox have a potential financial consequence?" asks a judge in today's Kalshi hearing; Kalshi lawyers argue that the outcome of every game impacts team valuations, and that Kalshi users are hedging sports-related outcome financial...
Option Sellers: Compare VRP Levels Starting with HYG
Moontower this morning I hope is extremely useful and educational to option enjoyyyers, especially sellers A devilish question for option sellers: Which VRP is higher? We start with $HYG is our launchpoint. https://t.co/Exoujfh7W8
Record $15bn Day, $4bn Delta in 15 Minutes
$4bn of +delta in 15 mins is, again, insane. This after a record of *$15bn for the whole day* https://t.co/LOJZGH9F5U
Stocks Trend, Volatility Mean‑reverts Faster than Ever
There's a lot about the market that we don't know, especially about the future. So we like to focus on the few things we do know. Stock prices trend. They're actually not random. Volatility mean reverts. And it's been doing...
CFTC Chair Remains Vague on Rejected Prediction
During a Congressional hearing today, CFTC Chair Michael Selig does not specify if the organization has rejected any prediction market event contracts proposed by operators
Brent Futures Rebound After $10 Drop, Still $20 Below May
Brent crude [June] futures prices—and prompt timespreads—are perking back up again this morning after sliding ~$10/bbl through the beginning of the week. Still currently down $20/bbl from where the Brent May contract settled. https://t.co/9Iv78anu65
High Call Volume Signals Imminent Market Correction
Im looking for a correction now based on the extreme call volumes & stock up + vol up into an OPEX. GL.
Tesla Call Volume Hits 5th‑Highest Ever at 3.95M
yesterday was the 5th highest TSLA call volume ever. 3.95mm contracts #1 was 4.86mm on election night 11/8/24
Mean Reversion Strategies Outperform SPY, Up Over 40% Since Inception
Mean reversion (MR) for subs. Since inception: -#ES_F bonus MR +44.7% (May 21, 2025) YTD +15.7% -Bonus MR+momentum: +3.5% (October 9, 2025. YTD +3.4% -Main MR strategy: +38% (June 27, 2023) YTD +5.2% - $SPY YTD +2.9% Link in profile (Daily mean reversion signals) 🔽...