Record $5.7 Trillion Options Expiry Fuels Gamma Squeezes and Pinning Risk on Quadruple Witching Day
Wall Street is bracing for a $5.7 trillion options expiry—the biggest March event on record—as S&P 500 quadruple witching unfolds. The massive unwind of index, ETF and single‑stock contracts is expected to trigger gamma squeezes, price pinning and sharp volatility spikes across equities, futures and even Bitcoin.
#58611
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) issued a March 20, 2026 notice that two listed options—CEPU1 (Central Puerto S.A.) and MGIC1 (Matrix IT Ltd)—will not be subject to the standard automatic exercise thresholds for the March expiration. Holders of long positions must independently...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures markets opened mixed but slipped into negative territory by mid‑session as traders engaged in end‑of‑week profit taking and consolidation. The lack of fresh domestic news left markets vulnerable, while external geopolitical developments dominated headlines. Growing concerns over the US‑Iran...
IWM’s Surge in Unusual Options Activity Signals Opportunity — Here’s a Covered Strangle With a Twist
Unusual options activity on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) spiked as geopolitical tensions lifted oil prices and pressured S&P futures. Despite solid year‑to‑date returns—11.39% in 2024 and 12.66% in 2025— IWM’s early rally faded, prompting investors to buy protective puts....
#58606
On March 20, 2026 the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) will apply special pricing to Tradr 2X Short DASH Daily ETF (DASX) options because DASX shares have been suspended from trading on the Cboe BZX Exchange. For expiration calculations OCC will use the last reported trade price...
ITWO: Russell 2000 Covered Call Strategy That Outperforms Its Peers
ProShares Russell 2000 High Income ETF (ITWO) combines direct exposure to the Russell 2000 with a 0‑day‑to‑expiration covered‑call overlay, aiming to deliver both growth and income. Over the past twelve months the fund outperformed peer covered‑call ETFs, benefitting from its aggressive...
Shopify (SHOP) Call Option Spread Garners a 33% Return Potential
Shopify (SHOP) is regaining momentum as it rolls out AI‑driven features and projects over 30% revenue growth for Q1, with earnings due in May. Analysts have modestly lifted FY2026 earnings estimates, now forecasting $1.78 per share, a 52% year‑over‑year increase....
Euronext Diversifies Its Financial Derivatives Franchise with the Launch of Mini Options on ETFs
Euronext has launched the Nord Pool Power Futures market, covering Nordic and Baltic electricity contracts, and went live on 16 March 2026. The transition moved 100 % of open interest—173 TWh—to Euronext Clearing, bringing 86 participants and 16 clearing members onto the Optiq® platform. The...
Interval Map Levels Predicted 1,000% SPY Call Trade
Here's how I took a 1,000% trade on $SPY today. $660 had the greatest exposure on the Interval Map. $655 was the downside target. $SPY rejected near $660 and dropped near $655. Multiple times. That range held all day. In the afternoon, I entered...
Midmorning Markets: Outsized South Central Natural Gas Storage Injection Pressures Permian Prices
Natural gas futures slipped Friday as traders weighed heightened Middle East war risk and a sharp rise in U.S. storage. The U.S. South Central region logged a 26 Bcf injection, pushing inventories to 721 Bcf, still 30 Bcf below the five‑year average. The...
#58603
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) announced that a set of S&P 500 INDEX PM/EURO flex options currently trading under the 4SPX symbol will be consolidated into the SPXW C series. The transition applies to ten contracts with expirations ranging from April to...
Crude Oil Pulls White Sugar to a 4.75-Month High, but the Surplus That Capped the Last Rally Is Still There
White sugar futures jumped to a 4.75‑month high as crude oil and gasoline prices surged, lifting the energy‑linked ethanol diversion mechanism. The rally is mechanical, not driven by tighter supply‑demand. India’s record sugar output and an approved export programme add...
#58601
New Gold Inc. completed its merger with Coeur Mining, converting each NGD share into roughly 0.4959 CDE shares. The Options Clearing Corporation adjusted NGD options, raising the contract multiplier from 1 to 100 and setting the deliverable to 50 CDE...
Coinbase Introduces Stock Perpetual Futures Contracts for non-U.S. Customers
Coinbase has launched perpetual stock futures for eligible non‑U.S. retail and institutional clients, expanding its derivatives suite into U.S. equities. The contracts cover the Magnificent 7 stocks and ETFs such as SPY and QQQ, trade 24/7, and settle in USDC. Leverage...
A Cleaner Way to Compute Seasonal Vol
The author introduces a calendar‑month realized volatility (CMRV) metric that computes monthly volatility by annualizing the square‑root of the mean squared daily log returns, eliminating the overlap inherent in a trailing 20‑day window. This approach prevents a large earnings‑driven move...
MLB Teams with Polymarket and CFTC in Groundbreaking Integrity Pact
Major League Baseball announced an exclusive partnership with prediction‑market platform Polymarket and a memorandum of understanding with CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig. The deals grant Polymarket access to MLB logos and official data while establishing a joint integrity framework to...
Oil Backwardation Signals Spot Prices Outpacing Futures
My latest w/ @janetonthemoney on @SIRIUSXM 132 on oil: “Oil is in a backwardation, with the spot price being quite a bit higher than the forward prices... The futures oil markets are not thinking the way I am. The futures markets...
Veg Oils Price Surge: CPO and CME Soyoil Futures Extend Gains
Vegetable oil futures, led by crude palm oil (CPO) and CME soybean oil, surged amid rising crude oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. The most active May CPO contract on Bursa Malaysia rose 0.93% to 4,541 ringgit per tonne,...
Global Rates: Global DM Swap Spread Outlook
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan’s global rate strategy team breaks down recent dynamics in developed‑market (DM) swap spreads, highlighting how central‑bank policy expectations and technical factors drive the curves across the US, Germany, the UK, Japan and...
Oil Volatility, Fed Caution Cloud Asian Markets
Asia mixed; oil volatility and Fed caution weigh, China holds LPR. Oil spike raises inflation/Strait-of-Hormuz supply risk; Alibaba weakens sentiment. Trade: hedge Asian equities with oil puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oil Risks Surge as Spot Prices Rise, Volatility Falls
Oil riskies firmed a lot to the put and today spot up, vol down day https://t.co/yyPo6cUfXq
NIHI: Tax-Efficient Way To Collect A 10% Yield From International Stocks
NEOS MSCI EAFE High Income ETF (NIHI) employs a collar option‑spread on international equities to deliver roughly a 10% yield, paid monthly and designed for tax‑efficient payouts. The overlay caps upside participation while providing limited downside protection, appealing to income‑focused...
Fed Rate Cut Now Expected in October 2027
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
Urgent Call: Stop Now Before Angry
Assembling a team. We stop this right now, at any cost. Activists gonna find out what the angry 0DTE option mob can do
#58598
Adjusted Meridian Holdings Inc. (formerly Golden Matrix Group) options were modified on March 3, 2026, creating a new deliverable of eight MRDN shares plus a cash‑in‑lie payment of $2.55 per contract. The cash portion, based on a $7.65 share price and a...
CFTC Allows FCMs to Use Bitcoin for Margin
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC announces Futures Commission Merchants can accept Bitcoin as margin collateral. https://t.co/oNOW4PB9po
Track Implied Delta by Comparing Poly to Futures
a quick little trading inspiration.. track the implied delta of the >90 market on poly compared to the corresponding futures price by tracking its price change. For example if the market went to 75% on a $1 rally then it's a...
#58597
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) issued a memo that special pricing will apply to HIMZ1/2HIMZ1 options expiring on March 20, 2026 because the cash‑in‑lieu amount for fractional shares has not been set. Each contract delivers seven Defiance Daily Target 2X Long HIMS ETF...
Record $5.7T Options Expiry May Spike Volatility
Today, options worth $5.7 trillion are expiring - it’s a ‘triple witching day’ and one of the largest volumes in recent years. This accounts for about 8.4% of the entire market, which is significantly above the usual level. Against the backdrop...
Silver Risk Sentiment Flips as Put Skew Rallies
Big sentiment flip in silver riskies recently...driven both by put skew rallying and call skew getting hit https://t.co/uxFWp2eClV
S&P 500 Perpetual Futures Launch on Hyperliquid, First Licensed On‑Chain Product
S&P Dow Jones Indices has licensed its S&P 500® to Trade[XYZ] for a perpetual futures contract on the Hyperliquid blockchain, creating the first officially authorized 24/7 on‑chain derivative tied to the benchmark. The product targets eligible non‑U.S. investors and leverages...
USO Call Butterflies Signal Strong Oil Upside
USO trades in January and March 2028 are actually call butterflies today as 125/185/245 seeing plenty of upside for Oil
S&P 500’s Next Move: Uncertain
Will $SPX unclench up or down next week? It has been pretty consistent for a while now fwiw
Gold, Silver, Copper Forecasted Below 5‑Day SMA
GC, SI and HG will all have 7 closes below the 5 SMA today. https://t.co/9wuK7cjvOG
FDX Call Spread Trade Targets 10x Return
$FDX "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 347.50/352.50 Call Spread ($3.50) and sell the March 325 Put for 50 cents." puts expire, sell call spread near $5 or watch max out at a 10x
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Vol Premium Soars While VIX Stays Low
Vol premium is near historic highs. But VIX is only 25. On the latest OPEX Effect on @excessreturnpod, @spotgamma explains what’s going on behind the scenes and what it could mean for the market. https://t.co/fKAHUZs21I
S&P Futures Target $655‑$657.5 Amid Pressure
Good morning. I’m on the road so limited contact from me. Spx futures-25 as “Boots on the ground” gets floated. Simplify it for today. Do we reclaim $655-$657.50 to relieve pressure. Or do we see $650.50 which looks...
Swaps Market Overprices Central Bank Rate Hikes
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
Rare Unpredictable Catalyst Shakes Oil and Gold Markets
Months ago well before the war inside the oil thread there was this. At the time you simply cannot predict a catalyst let alone this one but the larger pt is odds and setups. $CL_F $GLD https://t.co/tdubAxcT6a
Team Secures Exclusive License for S&P 500 Perpetual Product
Alright, y'all, looks like I'm eating crow on this one. This post from @bxunit very much says it is truly exclusive. "While this is the first product of its kind, it is also the only official S&P 500 perp product, meaning trade[XYZ]...
Brent‑WTI Spread Shifts Slowly; Short‑term Moves Are Noise
For those of you trying to figure out what's going on with the Brent-WTI spread. Let me point out an old gem that helps explain it. - Different delivery date windows - Different contract expiration dates - When things are volatile, individual...
Vol Skew Interpreted as Implied PDFs Across Expiries
Here's a question for options nerds Ignoring if it's "right" or "wrong" whether it's caused by paper flow or some expectations. Is baseline assumption in modern option thinking that each expiries vol skew represents an implied PDF and the vol...
Quadruple Witching Ahead; Options Hedging Fuels Today's Volatility
just a reminder that tomorrow is "quadruple witching" volatility today may in part be attributed to the hedging of options traders
Calls Surge
Calls doubled on that move but reject at VWAP, likely round trip them waiting for the rip yo face off that never comes lol. But, worth the risk if it does 🤷♂️
June S&P 500 E‑Mini Closes Below Key Line, Equities Risk
A close below the horizontal line shown below on the chart of the June S&P 500 E-Mini may not bode well for equities..... https://t.co/sQT9z0yJfP
Option Flows Aren't Market Masters; March 5 Misread Macro
option flows don't always control the mkt, real bad call on Mar 5, too myopic in blowing off the macro https://t.co/hLBe0RyCYC
VRP Widens as Volatility Drops, Shown on PLTR
You can pull up this type of chart on almost any symbol and see that the VRP tends to be fatter when vol is low This is PLTR Written about it in lots of places. https://t.co/zUpvOPQB7T
YPF
YPF now seeing buyers 3500 May $42 calls for $3.15 to $3.20, nice run already from last week write up https://t.co/4fVGR5BExA
Homebuilders, High‑Yield Credit, World Index Lag Volatility
Worst asset performers relative to their own vols in the past month on my watchlist Homebuilders, high yield credit, world equity index https://t.co/gpd005m2Yi