Original Bullish Options Trade on LyondellBasell Worked. Now It Deserves Another
In January, a bullish call‑spread risk‑reversal on LyondellBasell (LYB) was recommended, and the trade has now paid off as the stock climbed to $75.20. Management’s cash‑improvement plan delivered $800 million in 2025 and raised the cumulative target to $1.3 billion by 2026. The company also halved its quarterly dividend to 69 cents, eliminating a key source of uncertainty. With the original position expiring, the author advises rolling up and out to a June 65/75/90 call‑spread risk‑reversal to capture further upside.
ICE CDS Turnover Surges 256% to $21.2B as Iran Conflict Fuels Hedging
ICE Clear Credit reported a $21.2 billion turnover in single‑name corporate and sovereign credit default swaps on March 16, a 256% jump from Feb. 27. The surge reflects investors scrambling to hedge credit exposure as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates.
J.P. Morgan Debuts Equity Premium Yield ETFs ROCY and ROCQ on Nasdaq
J.P. Morgan Asset Management launched two new active ETFs, ROCY and ROCQ, on the Nasdaq, expanding its derivative‑income suite. ROCY focuses on U.S. large‑cap equities while ROCQ targets Nasdaq‑listed stocks, both using a call‑spread options overlay to generate yield. Each...
Does Revenue Seasonality Translate to Vol Seasonality?
H&R Block (HRB) saw its implied volatility surge to a one‑year high after market chatter about AI disruptions. The company’s low P/E ratio and 16% earnings yield give it bond‑like characteristics, prompting the author to sell cash‑secured puts instead of...
179: How To Make $100 Per Day Selling Options
In this episode, host Eric O'Rourke breaks down practical ways to earn $100 per day by selling options, focusing on SPX credit spreads and the nuances of profit targets versus strike width. He explains why the common 50% profit‑take rule...
Pure Gamma Bet on Sensex 74500 CE Requires Immediate Upside
Thinking of going long Sensex 74500 CE (today’s expiry) @ ~620, but let’s be real. 🧐 This option already spiked to 1158 and cooled to 620, so most of the gamma + IV expansion is already done.... Now it’s a pure gamma...
Nifty50 Options Signal 31% Weekly Volatility, Demand Zone 23100‑228
In these uncertain times, options data tells a deeper story. Plugged today’s Nifty50 weekly options into my model, it’s pricing => 31% IV (annualized) for nxt 7 days...😳🔥 >> Structure suggests 23100 to 22800 as a strong demand zone, but remember,...
Rollover Equity: Considerations for a Seller
John Jenkins highlights key considerations for sellers contemplating equity rollovers in M&A transactions. The blog stresses that call options embedded in buyer agreements can allow the acquirer to repurchase the seller’s rolled‑over stake, often at below‑market prices and over extended...
Hot CPI Triggers Price Discovery, No Fade—Execute Now
266 points on NQ. 💰 Hot CPI → price discovery → no fade. Just execution. Most traders fight this move. I press it. Comment “I’m in” and I’ll send the setup 📩 #vwap #futurestrading #tradingstrategy
Revenue Seasonality Drives Market Volatility, Explore Data Insights
Moontower Thursday 🌙Sold some puts on a turd so then I needed to like look at it and stuff 🌙Exploring the link between revenue seasonality and volatility You'll find several ways of looking at data to test your own ideas. https://t.co/nO8SPhrkJm https://t.co/MMfM6hW9aP
Iran War Fuels Tenfold Oil Futures Boom in NZ, Triggers Hedge Fund Losses
New Zealand retail traders have increased oil futures activity tenfold month‑on‑month as the Iran war drives bullish bets on Brent and WTI. At the same time, global hedge funds are posting their steepest losses since the so‑called “Liberation Day,” underscoring...
Mass
$GLD put of the day, 450 opex from $1-30, inciting a dealer dumpathon ON https://t.co/jU8qmVi9bh
VIX Plunge Signals Rising Market Complacency Amid Stress
$VIX: 27.85 on March 13. 21.51 now. A 6+ point collapse in one week while oil trades near $100, the Fed just held, and private credit is cracking. Complacency doesn't announce itself. It just shows up in the $VIX. https://t.co/QOUSwv6YZ0
Cherry Picks: ZB or ZN? A Smarter Way to Compare Treasury Volatility
The article proposes a systematic way to compare volatility between the 30‑year ZB Treasury future and the 10‑year ZN Treasury future by juxtaposing each contract’s implied volatility (IV) with its dollar value of a one‑basis‑point move (DV01). ZB’s DV01 of...
Massive UCO Call Purchase Signals $300 Gas Surge
Ultra Crude (UCO) buyer 1000 October $55 calls $9.80 to $10.50 Oh boy... $300 tank fill up incoming
Goldman, JPMorgan Enable Hedge Funds to Short Private Credit
Goldman and JPMorgan are among investment banks offering hedge fund clients ways to bet against the $1.8 trillion private credit market https://t.co/oylGukMJd0
Semiconductor Stock Signal Has Never Been Wrong
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ:CRDO) is testing a key technical level, sitting within 0.75 of its 320‑day moving average’s 20‑day ATR after a 52% pullback from its December high. Quant analyst Rocky White notes that this signal has historically...
Call Spread Fails, Roll Down 425 Put
$MU "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 465/475 Call Spread ($5.00) and sell the March 425 Put for 35 cents." call spread a bust, may need to roll puts down and out
Gold Futures Extend Downward Trend, Key Support Holds
GC: overnight downside follow-through with more range expansion. Key reference point still in play. https://t.co/HJ2JZL0ipm
Nifty Bank Prediction Today – March 18, 2026: Nifty Bank Futures: Bearish Inclination
The Nifty Bank index opened on March 18 with a modest gap‑up to 54,927, edging to 54,950 by mid‑session, a 0.15 % rise. While the advances‑to‑declines ratio of 11 to 3 suggests a short‑term bullish tilt, gains were led by Federal Bank and AU Small...
RBOB Futures Signal $4.10 AAA Gas Price Soon
$3.19 RBOB gasoline futures imply $4.10 AAA average gas price in a couple weeks https://t.co/7IwQpsyBoY
War’s Turmoil Can’t Shake the VIX’s Absurdity
For all the bad news that has come out of the war - the Vix remains a joke
Cboe Seeks SEC Approval for Near‑24×5 U.S. Equity Trading and New Prediction‑Market Contracts
Cboe Global Markets filed a proposal with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 16‑17, 2026 to offer near‑24‑by‑5 trading of all listed NMS stocks on its EDGX exchange, targeting a December 2026 launch. The filing also outlines a...
Equity Put/Call Ratio Peaks at 1.11, Highest Since April 2024
$CPCE - The CBOE equity put/call ratio spiked to 1.11, its highest level since April 2024. The 10 day moving average of the ratio is now at 0.73 which is higher than it was at April 2025 low. The last...
Oil Backwardation Signals Temporary Shock; BTC Ties to Dollar
The heatmap below shows that the oil futures curve remains heavily backwardated, indicating that the energy market believes that the current oil shock is a temporary supply problem that will get fixed. That’s probably correct but the question is how...
CFTC Declines Enforcement Against Phantom’s Crypto‑Derivatives Feature, Hinting at Softer Stance
On March 17, 2026, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a staff no‑action letter stating it will not seek broker‑registration enforcement against Phantom, the self‑custodial crypto‑wallet provider, for its planned derivatives‑trading interface. The decision applies to Phantom’s front‑end...
Trade Micro Nasdaq Futures for Superior Risk Management
Most traders jump straight into Nasdaq mini contracts and struggle with risk management and stop loss placement. Trading Micro Nasdaq futures (MNQ) allows for better position sizing, tighter stop losses, and cleaner trade management. Smaller size makes it easier to hold through...
Volatility Is Volatile: Expect Choppy, Unpredictable Paths
No clue if markets go up, down, or sideways. But throughout this recent debacle, it has been clear to me that a lot of folks do not realize that volatility is very… well….volatile. When people look at charts and data from...
Global FX Derivatives Turnover Hits $6.6 Trillion, Spotlighting Growth and Structural Risks
In April 2025 the global foreign‑exchange derivatives market recorded an average daily turnover of $6.6 trillion, roughly twice the level seen in April 2013. The surge was driven by outright forwards and FX options, while FX swaps remained the largest segment....
US Supply Surge Could Pull WTI Back to $53
What Stops WTI Crude From Reverting Toward $53? The December WTI crude oil future (Dec26), which becomes front-month just before the midterms, was at roughly $76 a barrel on March 17 and may revert toward $53. Before the closing of the...
Natural Gas Likely to Stabilize Around $3‑$5
Natural Gas $3 or $5 Near Year-End? Risks Appear to Lean Lower - The second consecutive colder-than-normal winter pushed the front US natural gas future to a high of $7.83 per MMBtus in January, and the price near $3 on...
Massive SPY Put Imbalance Meets Triple Witching, Sparking Volatility Fears
Institutional investors and market makers are facing an unprecedented concentration of SPY put open interest ahead of the March 20, 2026 triple‑witching expiration. The imbalance, with over 100,000 contracts at strikes 660, 645 and even 520, dwarfs the thinner call...
Warrant Sold at Deep Discount, Enriching Hedge Fund, Hurting Shareholders
Unlike a convert which sells a warrant at a relatively fair implied volatility and monetizes that vol for the benefit of existing shareholder. This atrocious deal sold the warrant at a massive massive discount to fair implied volatility and...
Burning Puts Unintentionally Fuels the Global Economy
4400 likes - all you people burning puts are supporting the global economy i thank you for your service
Bitcoin Rockets Past $75,000 as Derivatives Unwind Fuels Short‑Term Rally
On March 17, 2026, Bitcoin surged past $75,000, reaching $75,800, as traders unwound large short‑put positions and spot ETFs recorded record inflows. Market makers, highlighted by 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, bought spot BTC to rebalance exposure, while analysts at...
Big OTM Call Surge Hits Biotech TERN at $55
That biotech $TERN that folks were murmuring about days ago getting some bigly OTM call buying in the March $55 strike Think it was this nutty guy https://t.co/YIWYwL0845
Volatility Becomes an Asset When You Master It
📈 #Volatility is not a dirty word when you know how to use it... Kevin Davitt, Head of @Nasdaq Index Options Content, joins Dan Nathan & @GuyAdami on MRKT Call https://t.co/4z3jGYKguV
VIX Poised for New Highs as SP, Dow Lead
would love to see VIX make new highs in afternoon. So far SP and DOW only ones to take out PDL, though. https://t.co/uw5945fvVN
Futures Curve Shows Prices, Not Predictions
I know I am piling on here, but a reminder to those of you just tuning into oil markets... The Futures Curve is NOT a forecast... https://t.co/gyYIbj3Xqa
MU Release Early, QQQ/SMH Traders Get Spike Window
$MU $SMH MU release in Dec was before 4:15, so QQQ/SMH option slingers will have time to play the spike party before they close https://t.co/S4f0jns98f
Live: March OPEX Analyzes FOMC, Options & Expiration Impact
Don't miss March OPEX Live, today at 4:30pm ET. Join us for a breakdown of today’s FOMC reaction, options pricing in the face of global conflict, and why Friday’s expiration could impact markets. Join us live at: https://t.co/55HHarmCC7
Using AVWAP to Manage Puts and Hedge Positions
$IBIT - I know it's a messy looking chart...but this is how I'm managing my puts (noted yesterday). Get above that AVWAP - ill close it. *Also functioning as a hedge against my $IGV and $COIN positions. https://t.co/pSBzB90JwN
Markets Signal Persistent Oil Shock Beyond Short-Term
The market is gradually pricing in that this is more than a short-term oil shock. Below: white: oil futures curve, current blue: oil futures curve, a week ago orange: oil futures curve, 6 months ago https://t.co/8wQF3jaa8y
Sell March LULU Strangle for Credit, Await IV Drop
$LULU "Trade Idea 4: Sell the March 140/187.50 Strangle for a $2.20 credit.' looks to expire, let IV fall then can buy to close or watch
12‑Month Oil Futures Surge Past March Spike
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward...
Early Position Management Saves Traders as SPX Swings
$spx futures from +35 to -25 It’s good to get up early and manage ur positions. $spy chart https://t.co/jgRx8rsmyg
U.S. Shouldn't Manipulate Oil Prices via Market Intervention
COLUMN: The US shouldn't try to influence energy prices by intervening in the financial market for oil. "... The oil futures and options market isn’t a casino where the US government can self-appoint itself as the house that always wins..." @Opinion...
Read Fed Moves Through Positioning, Not Surface Reaction
Great Gamma chart and Fed Day point by Captain Craig @t1alpha "In that context, any outsized reaction around the Fed should first be viewed through the lens of positioning first rather than taken at face value" https://t.co/cnuGZLnhYJ
Heating Oil Prices Near $4, Spiking From Middle East Tensions
If you heat with oil you are exposed to sky-high heating oil prices. US heating oil futures are near $4 per gallon and prices have almost doubled since February, driven by escalating disruption linked to the war in Iran and...
China’s State Banks Shift Forward FX Book Post‑2010
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT