Uncertain Macro Environment May Call for Autocallable ETFs
The article warns that 2026’s macro landscape is clouded by escalating U.S. foreign‑policy tensions and lingering doubts about Federal Reserve independence, which could pressure equity markets. It proposes laddered autocallable income ETFs as a defensive tool, highlighting Calamos’s CAIE and CAIQ that embed over 52 autocallable notes each. These funds aim to deliver yield while protecting principal as long as their underlying indices stay above preset barriers. By diversifying across multiple maturities, the laddered format seeks to smooth timing risk amid market volatility.
CLZ26's High Risk Premium Reflects Delivery Incentive
CLZ26 price of 75 is the expected forward spot price of oil for December delivery plus a risk premium. That risk premium is likely higher than normal (Z26 is cheaper than normal) due to the high incentive for those...
The Market Brief
US equity futures nudged higher on Monday, led by Meta’s rally after the company disclosed sweeping AI‑driven workforce cuts. Meanwhile, crude oil lingered near the $100‑a‑barrel mark as Strait of Hormuz shipments remained disrupted, keeping risk appetite muted. Elevated energy...
Swap Data Was Supposed to Deliver Transparency. A Decade Later, Regulators Are Still Trying to Use It
Regulators have amassed a decade’s worth of swap transaction data through mandated repositories, yet extracting actionable insight remains elusive. A new Memorandum of Understanding between the SEC and CFTC creates a formal framework for sharing derivatives reporting data and supervisory...
Hedge Funds Boost Nat‑Gas Futures, Yet Still Below Historic Peaks
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 159 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 10. Fund...
Vanna‑driven Rally May Thrust SPX Into the 6,800s.
It *could* be a big week for a vanna driven rally into the 6,800s. Note here how VIX spread to SPX movement (RV) often contracts around VIX exp, which is this Wed. We've unlocked the AM Founder's Note to explain our...
Hedge Funds Turn to Exotic Cross-Asset Options Amid Market Turmoil
Hedge funds and institutional investors are turning to exotic cross‑asset options as the Iran‑related conflict fuels extreme volatility across energy, equity, bond and currency markets. Brent crude recorded a $36 intraday swing on March 9, breaking traditional correlations and weakening the...
Silver Futures Slip Below $77, Bearish Outlook Persists
Silver Futures: Down >$3.5 to the $77 handle. I feel like the lone or one of the few folks who have remained negative on higher prices (for now) based on a few different factors.
Tagus Bytes (16.03.26)
Bitcoin futures are displaying a modest bullish tilt as BTC hovers around $73,000, with taker volume showing 51.9% long versus 48.1% short, translating to $30.8 bn in buys against $28.6 bn in sells across Binance, OKX and Bybit. Short liquidations exceed longs,...
Cboe Options Exchanges Introduce Optional Risk Limit Control Enhancements
Cboe Options Exchanges will let Trading Permit Holders optionally exclude auction volume and set contra‑capacity fractions in post‑trade risk limits, effective April 20, 2026. The new controls, configurable through the Customer Web Portal and Cboe Titanium API, also introduce an optional atomic...
DNO Brings Forward Norway Production Through Multi-Asset Equinor Swap
DNO ASA announced a non‑cash asset swap with Equinor, trading its stakes in four non‑core Norwegian Continental Shelf discoveries for a 19% interest in the Atlantis field and a 10% interest in Afrodite, both adjacent to the Kvitebjørn area. The...
BTC Fills CME Gaps 95% of Time—Will It This Time
Historically, #BTC has filled its CME gap in 95% of cases. Will it close it this time? https://t.co/XkCluFm0gV
UNIVERSAL TRADE CAPTURE (UTC) – REPORTING ENHANCEMENTS
DTCC’s National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC) is adding a Universal Trade Capture (UTC) reporting enhancement that delivers direct trade‑capture data tied to a firm’s MPID. The service is optional for full‑service NSCC members that clear or introduce broker‑dealers through another...
JPMorgan's Das on Opportunities for Investors Amid Market Volatility
JPMorgan strategist Das warned that heightened market volatility is forcing investors to map multiple scenarios, from rising commodity prices to aggressive central‑bank tightening. He highlighted a sector rotation away from semiconductors toward staples, energy, materials and industrials, while noting JPMorgan’s...
How to Hedge Against $100 Oil, According to Market Strategists
Brent crude has breached the $100‑per‑barrel threshold, prompting oil‑intensive firms to accelerate hedging programs. Market strategists advise a mix of forward contracts, options, and swaps to lock in fuel costs while preserving upside potential. Daimler Truck CFO Eva Scherer highlighted...
Stock Futures Gain as Oil Eases From Earlier Highs: Markets Wrap
U.S. and European stock index futures rose after crude oil eased from earlier highs, following President Donald Trump’s call for nations to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and his indication that the United States is in talks with Iran....
Geopolitical Guesswork Turned ₹1L Into ₹6Cr
The Option That Turned ₹1 Lakh Into ₹6 Crore 💸💸💸 On 26 Feb, MCX Crude Oil 9000 CE was sitting around ₹125–₹150.💡 Nobody touched it. Too far. Too boring. Then came the strikes on Iran, crude shot past ₹10,000.🔥 That same ignored option jumped...
Some Implied Moves for Earnings Next Week(Mar. 16th – Mar 20th) – 177 Companies Reporting
The article lists implied move percentages for companies reporting earnings from March 16‑20, covering 177 firms but highlighting a subset of tickers. Implied moves range from 3.6% to a peak of 22.2% for PL, indicating expected price volatility around earnings releases....
Free Deep Pairs Trading Strategy Threatens Hedge Funds
Hedge funds are worried. Stat arb is now available to the masses. Some guy just published the most in-depth pairs trading strategy I've ever seen. 100% free
Crude Oil's 48% Surge Marks Second‑Largest 2‑Week Jump
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Demystifying Derivative Finance: A Comprehensive Guide to What It Is and How It Works
Derivative finance encompasses contracts whose value is tied to an underlying asset such as stocks, commodities, currencies, or interest rates. These instruments—futures, options, forwards, and swaps—are traded on regulated exchanges or over‑the‑counter, offering standardized or customized terms. Leverage allows participants...
Massive $11.4M Oil Long Faces Liquidation at $88.4
Someone opened a $11,402,000 Oil long position yesterday. If Oil drops to $88.4, he will be fully liquidated. https://t.co/7YNdGzV93U
NSE to Launch 10-Gram Gold Futures Contracts Under Commodity Derivatives Segment From March 16
The National Stock Exchange announced a new Gold 10‑gram Futures contract, slated to begin trading on March 16, 2026. Identified by the symbol GOLD10G, the contract’s trading and delivery unit is 10 grams with a tick size of ₹1. NSE set a...
Gold and Silver in India: Beyond Tradition, A Strategic Allocation
Gold and silver prices in India have shown heightened volatility as global macro factors and Middle East tensions influence market sentiment. On the MCX, April gold futures fell 0.6% to ₹1,60,651 per 10 gm, while May silver futures slipped 0.29% to...
Retail Options Trading and Gambling Behavior
Retail investors treat stock options like gambling, driving higher trading volumes in states with strong gambling cultures. Researchers built a Google Search Volume Index to capture option‑related attention, finding spikes around earnings announcements and other firm‑specific news. The study shows...
Oil Options Implied Volatility Surpasses 2022 War Peak
"Implied vol in oil options is above 100% (1m, ATM), climbing above levels seen at the peak during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and comparable to those during the pandemic lockdown panic" --DB
Record Hedge Fund Shorts Signal Imminent Squeeze
Bearish hedge fund positioning is extreme: Shorts in US-listed ETFs +10% Thursday—2nd-biggest daily jump since 2016 (only topped by +16% on April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day”). ETF shorts +12% this week (after +8% last), +23% in last month. US macro shorts (incl. index...
Episode 418 Option Trading Podcast March 13, 2026
In Episode 418 of The Weekly Option, host Eric reviews last week’s option trades on UiPath, Redcat Holdings, the US Oil ETF, and Occidental Petroleum, noting mostly profitable outcomes and minimal adjustments needed. He then introduces four new trades for...
Micro Futures Simplify Trade Management Across Cleaner Markets
Most traders only trade Nasdaq or gold. But markets like Dow Jones, Russell, crude oil, and natural gas often move with cleaner trends. The futures ticker you trade, the volatility, and your position size all impact your results. Using micro futures and choosing...
ES Futures Break Support, Bears Dominate Until Recovery
Big Picture View: From December to this week, #ES_F was in a range with 6765 support. This week, it failed, and we sold. Bears control until it recovers Plan next week: 6640 must reclaim to see 6704, 6758-65. 6588 must hold...
U.S. Officials Have Discussed Trading Oil Futures, Burgum Says
U.S. officials, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, confirmed that the Trump administration has discussed using oil futures contracts to temper soaring crude prices amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict. While the idea was explored, Burgum said no concrete market intervention has...
Market Fear Matches 2022 Levels Despite Complacency
How big is the market fear factor? The 4 charts on the left show what's going on in spot markets. The 4 on the right show options markets. Compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine 4 years ago, we're now at...
Quick Oil Options Tips: Read Vol Surface Instantly
One last pump...this came out yesterday. Dean and I talk oil, options, and some handy tricks for understanding a vol surface with a glance
#58540
Effective March 13, 2026, the National Securities Clearing Corporation will no longer accept exercise and assignment activity for ClearSign Technologies Corp. (CLIR) options, forcing all such transactions to settle on a broker‑to‑broker basis through the Options Clearing Corporation. The OCC...
Edge Lies in Better Event Probability, Not Sigma
Black-Scholes starts to break down when a stock stops trading on continuous volatility and starts trading on a mispriced discrete corporate event. In special situations, the edge is rarely in sigma. It’s in underwriting the probability-weighted outcome better than the...
Master Mental Options Chains: Part Two
Part 2 of "building an options chain in your head" which way too many of you nerds enjoyed
Coinbase Prime Introduces Unified Cross-Margin Trading Across Spot, Derivatives, Perps
Coinbase Prime has launched a unified cross‑margin trading layer that combines spot, traditional derivatives and regulated perpetual futures into a single capital framework. The upgrade lets institutional traders view and manage exposure across more than 90 assets with one margin...
WTI Crude Surges 9% to $98.71, Monday Gains Expected
WTI futures price rose $7.81 (9%) from $90.90 to $98.71 week ending March 13 Higher price movement is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/qQdFuuupRU
VIX, GLD Skew Reveal Iran‑China Geopolitical Link
Honored to be on with @JermalChandler and @TraderMikeyB to discuss $VIX $GLD skew why #Iran is about #China https://t.co/N4yZ7QkrnI
💡Trade Idea for Friday, March 13, 2026
A trader is initiating a cash‑secured put on a stock that has recently pulled back after a strong uptrend. Technical analysis shows the price holding above its longer‑term trend line while momentum indicators are stabilizing, suggesting a lower‑risk entry point....
Retail Investors Overleveraged, Flooding NVDA Call Market
Reality: most of these post-pandemic "Retail Investor" bulls just play a levered (fully loaded with options) game chasing the same stocks Despite the "get out" $NVDA Signal we issued this week, look at how many WEEKLY $NVDA $185 Calls traded...
War Spikes Hedging While Markets Stay Oddly Complacent
As war escalates, markets look complacent. The S&P 500 is barely down and USD is up only a bit. But hedging activity in options markets is picking up a lot. That's most pronounced for oil (top left), but it's also...
‘Buffer’ ETFs Prove a Decent Bond Alternative in War-Hit Markets
Buffer ETFs, a $80 billion defined‑outcome fund category, are emerging as a bond alternative amid volatile markets and rising Treasury yields. The largest vehicle, FT Vest Laddered Buffer ETF, fell only 1.4% in March versus a 2.7% drop in the S&P 500,...
Treasury Tapped Parallel Dollar Market, Used $2.5B, Made Profit
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
Rate Volatility Rising; Oil Hikes Push Yields Higher
I went over this with clients already: rate volatility is just starting… “If 80 then 100” is what I said about MOVE and it’s got lots of room to move higher. Higher oil = higher yields
Money Managers Snap up Corn, Fourth‑largest Weekly Buy
🌽HOLY. CORN. BUYING. Money managers in the week ended March 10 bought more than 140,000 CBOT corn futures & options contracts (the fourth most for any week on record). The resulting net long - 193,271 contracts - isn't even halfway to the...
Linking CL and USO Time Spreads Reveals Arbitrage
Yesterday's post on CL time spreads combined with this image of USO which has time spreads on the same underlying regardless of maturity (CL1) creates a fascinating circle to square. Anyone running the SEC/CFTC jurisdiction RV desk knows the fun...
Dubai Physical Crude Trades $40 Above Brent Futures
Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...
May Futures Collapse, Open Interest Near Zero
Boolish Silver folks watching May Futures drop $3 and getting close to sub $80. If folks really really wanted more physical, they should have stayed long March Futures, the open interest is a measly 875 contracts vs 77,604 in May (FYI...
MU Put Entry Strategy Unveiled with IUTraders Game Plan
$MU entry on puts @IUTraders and game plan -- sometimes you just have to ask ... 😎 https://t.co/aetAdrJh6S