Silver Sinks 2% to ₹2.62 Lakh/Kg in Futures Trade as Inflation Worries Weigh
Silver futures on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange fell 2% to ₹2.62 lakh per kilogram, a ₹5,354 drop, as crude‑oil prices rose and inflation concerns intensified. The decline mirrored a near‑3% slide in May COMEX contracts, pricing at $82.89 per ounce. Analysts linked the weakness to a stronger US dollar, fading hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑US conflict. Investors await the upcoming PCE inflation gauge for further clues on monetary policy direction.
IBIT + Short Call Matches STRC’s 11.5% Yield
One last comment on $STRC as I am bored of the whole thing and happy just owning long $IBIT Over the next year you could own STRC and get 11.5% yield. Or Go long IBIT and short ATM call and collect...
SPX's VIX Sensitivity Drops to Unsettling Low
Beta of SPX to 1pt chg in the VIX has fallen to uncomfortable levels. Opposite in many ways to Volmaggedon where VIX was at depressed levels, but SPX showing almost no response to implied vol changes. https://t.co/zaPe03rueo
Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy
Crude oil’s deep, liquid futures market makes it a prime playground for day traders and systematic strategies. A 2019 study found that the price movement in the first half‑hour of trading (9:30‑10:00 a.m. EST) reliably predicts the final half‑hour (3:30‑4:00 p.m. EST)....
ADBE Call Spread Fails, Roll Puts Down‑Out
$ADBE "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 13 Expiry 275/280 Call Spread ($2.85) and sell the March 13 Expiry 255 Put for 30 cents.' a bust, call spread will expire. Will need to roll puts down and out.
VIX at 28: Uncomfortable Middle Signals Slow Damage
$VIX near 28. Not panic. Not calm. The worst place to be — the uncomfortable middle. Panic capitulates. Calm is stable. The middle is where real damage gets done slowly. Watch this number. https://t.co/hPhtbG45FE
#58536
Docebo Inc. (DCBO) options have transitioned to Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) through the National Securities Clearing Corporation, effective March 5, 2026. All exercise and assignment activity from March 12, 2026 onward will settle via NSCC, eliminating broker‑to‑broker settlement for new transactions. Existing broker‑to‑broker obligations...
Friday the 13th Fuels Ongoing Market Volatility
Again with Friday the 13th! And no love in the vol complex as we head into the weekend. https://t.co/x0OcW7xE6R https://t.co/eLS7V3zlfE
Oil Futures Can Hedge Inflation Swaps via Energy CPI Component
Curious ? Inflation swap traders. Do you do partial arbitrage on inflation swaps using long dated oil contracts? For instance if receiving inflation do you sell CLM6 and buy CLM7 given that 8-20% of the cpi basket is...
US Using Swaps to Enable SPR Refill Plan: Wright
President Donald Trump’s administration plans to use commodity swaps to offset a 172 million‑barrel emergency drawdown from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, aiming to add over 200 million barrels back within a year at no cost to taxpayers. The swaps would exploit the...
Understanding the Fundamentals of Vertical Option Spreads
Here's a post on the basics of vertical spreads. I'll publish a more advanced one in X Articles for Friday the 13th. https://t.co/MEeZsvbmyb
Current ES_F
Not for nothing but any other time in say the last 8 years of Fintwit the current broadening $ES_F chart would have hundreds of 07-08 analogs on it.
The Market Won't Bottom Until Investors Get More Scared. Watch This 'VIX' Level
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 35.3 amid the U.S.–Iran conflict and has settled near 26, indicating lingering market fear. The S&P 500 has slipped about 3 % since the war began, while Brent crude surged to roughly $100 per barrel,...
Shorts, Not Longs, Control COMEX Silver Deliveries
Silver: The truth about recent Deliveries........ only talking COMEX Guys are posting Bullish comments here regarding Silver deliveries, and folks wanting to take position of the Metal. I wonder if they understand the longs are not in control of the delivery...
Options Traders Are Pricing in ‘Disaster’ as Iran Conflict Intensifies. Here’s How Investors Might Profit.
Options traders are pricing in heightened risk as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates, driving premiums on oil‑related contracts. CME Group’s CEO Terry Duffy warned that any U.S. attempt to directly intervene in oil futures could trigger a “biblical disaster,” potentially destabilizing...
Earnings Options Skew
Earnings lottos 3/12/26 Adobe $290 Calls 255 Puts RBRK $63 Calls $48 Puts ULTA $682 Calls 597.5 Puts I don’t love em but let’s see what we got
Record Hedge Levels Signal Potential Upside Rally
This chart, which has been doing the rounds, shows one of the most hedged equity markets in years. That usually means fear is already priced in, and the risk asymmetry increasingly favors upside surprises rather than further panic selling. This chart...
MidDay Futures: Gas Futures Little Changed as Storage Draw Lands Light, Cold Weather Returns
U.S. natural gas futures were largely flat Thursday, with the front‑month contract up 1.3 cents to $3.222 per MMBtu. The Energy Information Administration reported a 38 Bcf draw from storage for the week ended March 6, near the low end of forecasts....
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Volatility Strategies Open to Retail via Free PDF
Jane Street, AQR, Ren Tech... All use volatility. Retail was locked out... until now. A 327 page PDF was just released. For free:
Tokio Marine Targets Mid-Guidance Pricing for $100m Kizuna Re Quake Cat Bond
Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire is targeting mid‑guidance pricing for its $100 million Kizuna Re III catastrophe bond, which provides earthquake reinsurance for the Tokio Marine group. The bond, issued through a Singapore‑based SPV, carries a three‑year rolling aggregate trigger and a...
Negative Gamma Pushes SPX/SPY Toward 6700 Support
Gamma exposure for the combined $SPX + $SPY view shows mostly negative exposure under spot. $6700 is a key support level; if it breaks, we could see a move towards $6650 pretty quickly. The range we are currently in is...
Hold ISOs 1‑Year/2‑Year for Capital Gains
ISOs are attractive because, under the right conditions, gains from their exercise and sale can qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. However, to receive this preferential tax treatment, employees must wait to sell the employer stock until at least one...
SPX Box Spreads: What Every Advisor Should Know
Advisors are increasingly considering SPX short box spreads as an alternative financing tool. The strategy involves a four‑leg options package that delivers cash today in exchange for a known liability at expiration, effectively acting like a zero‑coupon bond. Because SPX...
Corn Rises, Soy Falls: Money Flow Drives Momentum Trade
#Corn story seems to be getting more and more bullish and the #soybean story seems to be getting much more negative. This isn't a production issue for soybeans such as hot and dry weather cutting the crop. The...
SHFE Silver Inflows Surge to Two‑Month High
SHFE #Silver Tide Turns 🌊 🚨The Shanghai Futures Exchange just recorded its largest single-day inflow in two and a half months
KNG: The Case For An Enhanced Income Strategy
The First Trust Vest S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Target Income ETF (KNG) has been rated a Buy, positioned to outperform in a flat 2026 market. KNG employs a rules‑based buy‑write strategy, writing monthly covered calls on Dividend Aristocrats to generate roughly...
India VIX’s Low Level Signals Complacency Amid Global Tensions
How come the India VIX below is lower than it was during the Russia-Ukraine crisis? The US Vix is also lower than last year's wars and the Tariff announcements. Either we have not discounted the real extent of what has...
Bull Put Spread Bets Nifty Stays Above 23900
Opened a 23900..23800 bull put spread on Nifty (17 Mar expiry). >> Sold 23900 PE @ 304.75 >> Bought 23800 PE @ 231.85 (hedge) Net credit 👉 ₹72.9 View is simple: Nifty should expire at/above 23900....Structure wise this means I'm short gamma near 23900,...
Dow Futures Down More than 500 Points as Brent Crude Again Tops $100 a Barrel
Dow futures slipped 561 points, or 1.2%, as Brent crude breached the $100‑a‑barrel mark, rising 9.3% to $100.52. West Texas Intermediate also surged, up 9% to $95.12. The U.S. Energy Secretary announced a release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic...
Index Derivatives Essential; Token‑by‑token Hampers Market Evolution
"You absolutely need index derivatives. Doing things token by token is not a good way for markets to evolve." @baehr https://t.co/KrlOhykve7
Perpetual Contracts Excel but Clash with US Trading Habits
"Perps are a brilliant innovation and they've proven themselves successful, but not extremely compatible with how Americans tend to trade." https://t.co/KrlOhykve7
Analysis-Chinese Companies Race to Hedge Against a Swinging Yuan with Regulatory Encouragement
Chinese exporters are scrambling to hedge yuan appreciation, driving a record $39 bn net foreign‑currency sell‑off in January and $100 bn dollar net sales in December. Regulators have issued informal "window guidance" urging banks to lift corporate hedging ratios to roughly 40 %...
Methanex Surges 9% as Buyers Snap up $65 Calls
Methanex (MEOH) up over 9% now with buyers 2850 April $65 calls $2.10 to $2.45 The research works .. https://t.co/MV0sW89wl4
Massive $8.39 M Oil Short Targets $147.94
Someone has opened a $8,390,000 Oil short position today on Hyperliquid. Liquidation price: $147.94. https://t.co/LxECXDypMz
Small Caps Options Traders Should See This Chart
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has slipped 3.8% over the past 30 days, trading near its year‑to‑date breakeven at $251.88. Despite a broader risk‑off shift away from small‑cap equities, IWM remains above its 126‑day moving average, roughly $250, providing technical...
Industry Flow Boosts Mosaic Calls, Buying Momentum
Mosaic (MOS) 9100 April $37.5 calls buy 1.05 as these names keep going The power of industry-wide flow trends
USO's IV30 Spikes 15%, Contrary to Expectations
$USO leads everything today in IV30 rise, +15%, the exact opposite of what we want to see
Expect a 4‑Hour Market Stall After Rapid Move
Those who smoke brisket can relate. In big move days the move happens rapidly till about now. Then the combination of 0DTE and leveraged ETF rebalance flows causes a 4 hour stall. Wrap the meat. Leave...
Protection Costs Surge Despite Modest S&P Gains
Wow. The cost for protection is nearly off the charts. Feels extreme given S&P 500 is about 4% from new ATHs. Nice one from @MacroCharts
Prediction Markets See WTI Futures Still Rising
Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb
BTC Futures/Spot Ratio Surges as Traders Chase Leverage
The futures/spot ratio for #BTC on Binance is rising rapidly. According to data from CryptoQuant, traders are once again piling into leveraged positions, hoping to become fabulously wealthy. https://t.co/XQeEiRuPWB
Futures Struggle at WTD AVWAP; Overnight Low Break Risks Trouble
Futures are struggling with the WTD AVWAP, a break of the overnight lows could be troublesome $ES_F $NQ_F https://t.co/pQGwLxlyHR
Commodities Get Wilder When Retail Traders Bet Puts
If you thought commodities were fun with the retail crowd, just wait until they dive into puts.
ATM Vol Premium Over Tail Hedge Signals Market Tension
At-the-money implied vol ($VOLI) normally trades at a premium to tail hedge ($TDEX). Makes sense. Both are elevated for obvious reasons. Folks agitated about the Middle East. This chart needs to repair itself before spooz can resume their cruise. @Nations_Indexes...
Built AI-Powered Options Screener in 35 Minutes
holy shit, @perplexity_ai computer build an options screener with AI built in for my parents in 35 minutes
Record Put Skew Raises Risk of Downward Spiral
It seems like everyone and their brother is aware of the record levels of put skew and hedging in the market by now. I wonder what magnitude of a tail event is required to break that loose? Is there a level...
SVIX Climbs as Front‑end VIX Futures Sold
How the hell was $SVIX (short vol) up 4.5% today with equities mostly in the red?? Someone was selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/oyCW72pqSw
ECB Rate Bet Reversal Costs Traders on Options
Traders suffer losses on options after U-turn in ECB rate bets https://t.co/IOlxq962Fs via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/EsJzYFwmea
Private Credit, Not AI, Holds the Real Risk
5 Months ago....and seeing it play out well with OWL puts and plenty of other exposed names