2 Retail Stocks Seeing Influx of Calls Before Earnings
Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) are set to report Q4 earnings tomorrow and Monday, respectively, after sliding near multi‑week lows—DG around $144 and DLTR near $115. Both stocks have struggled to breach previous highs, yet DG posted a 9% YTD gain while DLTR is down 6% in 2026. Options markets show bullish pressure, with 50‑day call/put volume ratios of 2.38 for DG and 2.55 for DLTR, placing them in the 75th and 88th percentiles. Short interest has risen, now covering 3.5% of DG’s float and 6.2% of DLTR’s.
Trading the VIX/SPY Relationship: A Strategy Webinar
Lawrence G. McMillan’s March 11 webinar highlighted the normally inverse VIX‑SPY relationship and how occasional distortions create trading opportunities. He explained that when volatility spikes while the S&P 500 stalls, the pricing gap between VIX options and SPY options widens. The...
JEPQ: Why Covered Call ETFs Now Look Like A Lose-Lose Trade (Rating Downgrade)
JPMorgan’s Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) has been downgraded to a sell rating as its covered‑call strategy delivers sub‑optimal risk‑adjusted returns. The fund’s exposure is effectively unhedged, meaning a 20%+ correction in the underlying QQQ could translate into comparable...
VWAP Acts as Dynamic Support in Strong Trends
Oil volatility is back 🔥 One VWAP Bounce this morning paid before 8AM. In strong trends, VWAP becomes dynamic support, not mean reversion. Most traders fade it… Professionals buy the pullback. Comment VWAP and I’ll send the free guide + Discord. #trading #futures #vwap
Energy Spike Could Lift Eurozone Inflation to 2.3%
First scores on doors I've seen ... and it's boringly close to what we have been telling readers in the past week. At the current futures curve in oil, you get 2.3% in 2026 (roughly), with gas not doing much...
Cherry Picks: Why VXX Underperforms the VIX Contango and the Futures Roll
VXX tracks VIX by holding front‑month and next‑month /VX futures, rolling about 4.5 % daily. Because the futures curve is in contango most of the time, the roll forces VXX to buy higher‑priced contracts, creating a persistent drag that causes the...
Buy the Dip and Hedge Risk on This Energy Services Stock, Using Options
SLB, the world’s largest oilfield services firm, fell nearly 10% as Iran‑related geopolitical tension pushed crude toward $120 per barrel, creating a valuation disconnect. The stock has rebounded to its $45 support level, suggesting buyer interest, and could test the...
Oracle Call Spread Bet Hinges on IGV Support
📺 $ORCL EARNINGS TRADE & WILL MONEY ROTATE TO $IGV? In this Short video, I go through my defined-risk earnings trade in $ORCL using a $160–$170 call spread that costs $2 and could return $8 if the stock closes above $170....
WTI Prices Dip While Volatility Hits Six-Year Peak
WTI crude oil remains well off its intraday high from Monday, but implied volatility - from the $OVX - continues to climb to fresh 6-year highs... https://t.co/VDf2X5NDWk
The Liquidity Paradox: Hedging in Open-Ended Fund Structures
Open‑ended private‑equity funds must hedge currency risk while promising investor liquidity. Hedging tools such as forwards, swaps, and options protect returns but require collateral that can strain cash reserves. As macro volatility rises, the need for hedging intensifies, creating a...
High VR
Fat VRPs but think vega is here to stay. as risk if risk premium here to stay..time spreads look decent https://t.co/IpY830RswR
Market Dips, yet Front‑end VIX Futures Being Sold
Despite 9 of 11 US sectors showing red, someone out there is selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/Wr7rXuRzOu
2025 SDR-Reported IR Compression
In 2025, SDR‑reported cleared interest‑rate compression reached $170 trillion, a 73% jump from 2024. OIS compression alone accounted for $151 trillion, up 80%, while basis‑swap compression surged 212% to $1.76 trillion and fixed‑float IRS rose 28% to $16.9 trillion. Off‑platform activity expanded dramatically, capturing...
US Government's Crude Short Roughly $10 B Margin Equivalent
I currently estimate the notional size of the crude oil futures short the US government ends up putting on to be roughly whatever $10 billion in margin gets you. Attached tweet unrelated.
Future Prices Defy Norms: Oil Options Expose Gamma Paradox
Today's "Future prices are not like other prices" by @ByrneHobart is an outstanding preamble to tomorrow's moontower titled: oil options and the raw gamma paradox 🛢️🧩 a post that sniped me from whatever i planned to write about Byrne's post is free: https://t.co/ekmCXjtQQ1
Option Pricing Model in Illiquid Markets
The 2022 study by Pasricha, Zhu, and He extends the Black‑Scholes‑Merton framework by introducing a liquidity discount factor that reflects market‑wide illiquidity. Using a mean‑reverting stochastic process for liquidity, the authors derive a closed‑form pricing formula for European options. Numerical...
Options‑implied Fed Hike Odds Surge to 23%
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
Earnings Gap Propels Oracle Calls 119% Gains
i picked up a few $ORCL 4/17 $175 call options yesterday before the close & the pending earnings report... amazing how fast option prices can move with a ~+13% gap in the stock this morning... the calls i bought for...
Figure Technology Solutions Sees Unusually High Options Volume (NASDAQ:FIGR)
Figure Technology Solutions (NASDAQ:FIGR) saw unusually high options activity on Wednesday, with 33,905 call contracts—a 276% surge over its typical volume. The stock opened 21.3% higher at $39.59, buoyed by a $200 million share‑buyback authorization and a 90.7% year‑over‑year revenue jump...
Futures Dip to Daily Lows, Market Stays Calm
Futures are at their lows of the day, but everything's quieted down since the start of the week https://t.co/sqcA2J1f9o
Traders Purchase Large Volume of Put Options on Centene (NYSE:CNC)
Traders bought 22,328 put contracts on Centene (CNC), a 67% jump over the typical daily volume, signaling bearish bets. The stock opened at $36.35, trailing its 50‑day moving average of $43.20 and its 200‑day average of $38.33. Centene reported $49.73 bn...
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Understanding Retender in Futures Contracts
Retendering allows a futures contract holder to sell a delivery notice to another market participant, avoiding the need to take physical possession of the underlying commodity. It is typically employed when the long side cannot or does not want to...
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Bookout: Definition, Process, and Key Insights
A bookout is an early termination of an OTC swap or derivative, settled in cash rather than through physical delivery. It allows market participants, especially in commodities and energy, to unwind positions quickly when market conditions change. The process reduces...
Dow Jones Futures Fall, Oracle Jumps On Earnings; Oil Swings With Reserves Release Plan Due
Dow Jones futures slipped 0.1% as oil prices swung on the International Energy Agency's proposal to release up to 400 million barrels of crude. U.S. crude rallied 4% before retreating, reflecting uncertainty over the Iran conflict and recent reserve‑release chatter. Oracle...
WASDE Overshadowed as War Pushes Fertilizer Prices Higher: Can Corn Rally?
The March WASDE report was largely unchanged, with U.S. corn ending stocks holding at 2,127 million bushels and global corn stocks edging higher. Meanwhile, the Middle‑East conflict is pushing nitrogen‑based fertilizer prices up, raising concerns over planting costs. Higher fertilizer costs...
Is the Bottom In For SPX? March 11 Plan
The newsletter dissects recent S&P 500 E‑mini (ES) moves, labeling rapid sell‑offs as "elevator down" events that trigger failed breakdowns and short squeezes. After a sharp dip to 6588 on Sunday, the index rebounded to 6850, repeatedly testing the 6778‑82...
Nifty50 Futures Premium Signals Stable Market Conditions
Nifty50 March futures settled at...132 points premium over spot. >> Traditionally this reflects healthy implied financing (r − d) in the system. In simple terms, funding conditions are comfortable and there’s no aggressive demand to short futures. >> That usually aligns with...
Oil Swings $21 in Two Hours—Unprecedented Volatility
Absolute insanity: In just 2 hours, oil prices have now fallen -$10/barrel and risen +$11/barrel, with prices now nearing $90/barrel again. This is unprecedented volatility.
BALI: The Meeting Point I Was Looking For Between The S&P 500 And Covered Calls
Financial Serenity highlights the BALI fund, which merges U.S. large‑cap equity exposure, systematic covered‑call writing, and futures overlays to generate high monthly income while dampening volatility relative to the S&P 500. The concentrated, growth‑oriented portfolio has outperformed peers such as JEPI...
Higher‑Vol Strategies Shift Burden, Damage Manager Track Record
A lot of people ask me for higher volatility alternatives for "capital efficiency" reasons. And on it's face, it makes sense. Instead of putting $100 in a 10% vol strategy, you can just put $25 in a 40% vol strategy. But there are...
Brent's Record Volatility Mirrors War Uncertainty
Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
Which Hedge Fund Strategies Win when Oil Takes Over?
Crude oil’s rapid climb to near $120 per barrel has created a stark performance divide among hedge‑fund strategies. PivotalPath’s Regimes analysis shows managed futures delivering 9.1% and global macro‑commodities 8.8% when oil trades between $100‑$140, while the broader hedge‑fund index...
Massive IGV Put Purchase Signals Bearish Outlook
Software (IGV) buyer 40,000 August $80 puts $5.40 Oh god, what is Claude about to do next
Market Already Priced the Rally; Right‑tail Calls Unchanged
SPX is up 100 handles since Friday close. 10 Delta "right tail" 3 month calls are unchanged. The right tail was more than fully priced. If you are congratulating yourself for "calling" a taco/war cessation or whatever....
The Hartford Again Uses Catastrophe Bonds to Extend Reinsurance Tower Higher
The Hartford has deepened its reliance on catastrophe bonds, issuing a $270 million Series 2026‑1 bond that attaches at $1.6 billion and exhausts at $1.9 billion of per‑occurrence losses. This new layer sits above the 2023‑1 bond, which now attaches at $1.29 billion and exhausts...
Mechanical Put Bounce Signals Rising Investor Risk
Nothing has changed: the bounce was predicted on mechanical put monetization NOT fundamentals. Now we wait for VIX to base & move higher as posted for clients on more active timeframes. ;-) But big picture, risk has only increased for investors....
Extreme Backwardation Signals Temporary, Overdone Oil Price Spike
You didn't have to be a genius to look at the extreme backwardation in the Futures curve for crude oil to call the current price spike temporary, and overdone. #CrudeOil
#58525
On March 10, 2026, the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) announced that automatic‑exercise thresholds will be removed for several options whose underlying securities are halted or subject to corporate actions. The affected symbols—CEPU1, MGIC1, and IMMP—will not be automatically exercised across...
Buy Crude at 83‑92; Below $75 Signals End
If you are bullish crude on reescalation, this is the buy zone .. Equilibrium in CL1 should be 83/92 .. Single prints yesterday on trump comments in the 91/92 area. Below $75 (the first Sunday gap when the war started)...
Today's IBIT Leaders: All Top Five Options Are Calls
Top 5 IBIT options traded today (by volume and by notional) are all calls: https://t.co/LW4IxoGyqb
How To Take Advantage Of Micron Stock's Current Prosperity
Micron Technology’s stock rebounded above its 50‑day moving average amid heightened volatility ahead of its March 18 earnings. The article proposes a diagonal put spread—selling a March 20 $345 put and buying a March 27 $340 put—as a low‑upside‑risk strategy targeting a 10‑15%...
Oil Call Options Show Limited Upside Beyond $120
🚨 Call options on oil DO NOT indicate significant interest above $120/barrel. signals optimism oil-price rise may be contained. https://t.co/nlL7YR1ZsA
Commodity Hedges Rarely Succeed; Soybean‑crude Link Fails Fast
Very rarely in my 32 years have I seen hedging off risk in another commodity work out. Sometimes it does, but not often. If you bought #soybeans Sunday to protect against rising crude that "hedge" is quickly deflating.
Prop Firm For Traders Adds Prediction Markets Beta
For Traders, a Prague‑based retail prop trading firm, announced the beta launch of its Prediction Markets trading platform. The beta runs as a free monthly competition ending on April 9, 2026, allowing participants to trade on event outcomes. The firm says the...
VX Futures Rise as Spot VIX Falls Near Expiry
Spot VIX is lower but VX futures are higher. WTF? Well, the March contract is moving closer to expiration so the gap to spot needs to start shrinking. Futures will have a hard time unless and until spot drops a...
BKLN Put Spread Purchase Signals Credit Concern
Senior Loans ETF (BKLN) buyer 7500 Oct. 19/16 put spreads, been a play on credit worries
Wall Street Tail-Risk Hedges Rally as Conflict Shakes Markets
Wall Street’s tail‑risk hedges have surged as the Iran‑Israel conflict wiped roughly $6 trillion from global equities and pushed oil above $100 per barrel. Leveraged VIX ETFs such as UVIX and UVXY jumped 30% and 20% respectively in March, while long‑expiry...
Almost Half of Traditional Derivatives Exchanges ‘Considering’ Prediction Markets
Research by Connamara Technologies and Acuiti shows that 47% of traditional derivatives exchanges are actively considering launching prediction markets, though only 5% have made a firm commitment. Respondents identified market‑design complexity, system integration, and post‑trade settlement as the top technical...
Option Volume up 5%, Calls Lead, IV Split Across Stocks
From @Cboe: Monday's option volume of 72.4M contracts was 5% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 8 to 7. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30-day IV was higher for 256 and lower for 199.
#58522
Powell Industries, Inc. announced a 3‑for‑1 stock split effective April 6, 2026, with a record date of March 20, 2026 and payable date of April 2, 2026. The split will triple the number of outstanding shares while reducing the share price to roughly one‑third. OCC will...