Kalshi Taps Brazil’s XP to Take Prediction Markets Global
Kalshi has teamed up with Brazil's leading brokerage XP Inc. to launch regulated prediction‑market contracts outside the United States. XP will handle local distribution, client relationships, and regulatory coordination, while Kalshi supplies the trading technology, market design, and risk‑management tools. The contracts will initially be offered to Kalshi's U.S. investors and a limited set of XP clients with international accounts via XP's U.S. brokerage arm. The collaboration aligns with Brazil's securities regulator allowing derivative‑style prediction markets, marking a strategic milestone for Kalshi's global ambitions.
Citi Issues Its First Digitally Native Structured Note on Euroclear’s D-FMI Platform
Citi has launched its first digitally native structured note on Euroclear’s Digital Financial Market Infrastructure (D‑FMI), marking a pioneering use of distributed‑ledger technology for wealth‑management products. The note, issued under English law by Citigroup Global Markets Funding Luxembourg, demonstrates a...
Pre-Market IV Report March 9, 2026
The March 9 pre‑market report flags a surge in implied volatility across energy ETFs, major oil majors and a cluster of aerospace‑defense names. United States Oil Fund (USO) posted a 30‑day IV of 108, near its 52‑week peak, while ExxonMobil and...
23800 Support Crushed, Target 275‑300 Zone
23800 was a crucial support for Nifty50 and it’s been brutally broken today 😬 >> Holding 10 Mar 23900 PE, avg ~195.50. Option already spiked to 325.95, largely driven by gamma expansion + IV spike after the breakdown...💥🔥 >> Current plan: looking for...
BofA Securities Gets a Slap on the Wrist for Alleged ICE Futures US Rules Violations
ICE Futures US announced a settlement with BofA Securities over an alleged violation of Rule 4.02(c). The issue stemmed from a September 2024 trade where a trader entered simultaneous buy and sell orders that executed against each other, creating a...
CME Group Reports First Trades of South Asia Crude Palm Oil (Fastmarkets) Futures
CME Group announced the first trade of its South Asia Crude Palm Oil (Fastmarkets) futures, with 100 contracts exchanged between Avere Commodities and Olam Agri on March 5, 2026. The contracts were launched on March 2 as part of four new cash‑settled...
Market Metrics That Matter: Derivatives February Volume Highlights
Cboe reported record February trading activity across its derivatives platform. S&P 500 index options (SPX) posted a historic average daily volume of 4.75 million contracts, with zero‑days‑to‑expiry (0DTE) trades accounting for 63% of that flow. Mini‑S&P 500 (XSP) and Russell 2000 (RUT) options also...
S&P Futures Signal Potential Gap Down Through Dec Low
Stocks don't open for 12 more hours, but with futures -125 the S&P looks like it will gap down through the Dec. low; a low which became even more significant after Wednesday's bounce off its corresponding support. And if the...
Positive VIX Spot‑Future Spread Signals Bearish Market
Here's the spread between spot VIX and the front month future. Positive spread is bearish. https://t.co/598aRc7d3r
As Middle East Conflict Rages, DBS Urges SMEs to Hedge at Least Half Their FX Exposure – Not Time the...
DBS is urging Singapore‑based SMEs to hedge at least half of their foreign‑exchange exposure amid heightened volatility from the Middle‑East conflict. The bank’s SecureFX facility, which lets companies lock in rates up to US$1 million without credit lines, is already used...
US Stocks Just Starting to Sneeze, Put/Call Signals Downturn
US equities are only starting to sneeze. When it does, droplets fall everywhere, and you get infected. S&P500 and the CBOE Put/Call ratio. #SP500 #PutCallRatio #StockMarket $SPX $SPY #GlobalMarkets #PutCallRatio #TechnicalAnalysis #indiacharts https://t.co/hkGs4mAlj7
VIX Futures Reverse After Testing 30, Volatility Looms
$VX 30 was tested overnight but VIX futures reversed from there. May still be a spicy day ahead of us. https://t.co/NDJwW1XZhG
Brent Prompt Futures Open at +$108
Brent prompt futures opened above $108 per barrel on NYMEX, marking a notable price surge. The rally is driven by OPEC+ output cuts, lingering Middle East tensions, and a weakening dollar that favors commodities. Analysts warn the $108 level could...
Master Gamma and Throttle for Pro Risk Management
GAMMA @t1alpha If you don't know where Gamma and its Throttle are, you really don't know how to manage risk like Macro Pros @Hedgeye do https://t.co/fU17MkB83v
2026 Carry Trade Plans Faltered as Curves Flattened
Basically; 2026 was supposed to be the year where you bought carry in 26 STIR contracts, and cash bond curves would steepen. Best laid plans and all that.
Bitcoin Funding Rates Just Flashed One of the Bleakest Signals in Months Before One Macro Number Changed Everything
Bitcoin perpetual futures funding plunged to about -6% on Feb. 28, the most negative level in three months, while BTC‑denominated open interest climbed to roughly 120,260 BTC, indicating a crowded, leveraged short bias. The sharp negative funding signaled that traders...
10‑Year Note Futures
10 Yr Note Futures fall again (-13.5/32's to 112-00+) Since tagging 114 and seeing the UST Active 10 Yr Note fall under 4%, it has been a steady reversal aided by the war in the Middle East. https://t.co/aX13QG6ARo
Brent and WTI Crude Surge to $119.5 per Barrel
Brent crude futures LCOc1 climbed to a high of $119.50 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 to $119.48 a barrel.
Buy Write Strategy: Definition and Examples
The buy‑write strategy pairs a stock purchase with a simultaneous sale of a call option, creating a covered‑call position that delivers immediate premium income. It is most effective in neutral to mildly bullish markets where large price jumps are unlikely....
Oil and S&P Futures Keep Falling, Sentiment Wanes
Oil and S&P 500 Futures Extend Tumble to Start the Week – Is Sentiment Giving Way? Wrote this week ahead article on an airplane with awful wifi... https://t.co/PoHGRgI2oL
Brent Prompt Timespread Hits Record $9+, Signaling Unprecedented Tightness
The Brent crude prompt timespread is currently over *$9/bbl*, a new all-time record. Timespreads measure the steepness of the crude futures curve, which at the front (prompt) reflects how tight—loose if neg—the spot market is. The oil market has literally never been...
TSMY: The Covered Call Strategy That Doesn't Commit
YieldMax TSM Option Income Strategy ETF (TSMY) receives a Hold rating as its covered‑call approach fails to capture strong upside in bullish markets. The fund trails its non‑option counterpart TSM by roughly 40 percentage points during robust rallies, despite a...
Oil Futures Hit -$42; Meme Traders Could Amplify Chaos
Reminder, oil futures once traded at negative $42 a barrel. And if the meme stock traders get a hold of this thing who knows where it can go?
US Oil Futures Surge 60%—Record Monthly Gain
US oil futures are now on track to rise +60% this month, marking their largest monthly gain in history. https://t.co/P4ciDNwr85
Stock Futures Plunge: Nasdaq Down 2.3%, S&P Near 2%
Losses for stock futures accelerating Nasdaq futures now down 2.3% S&P 500 futures down almost 2%
VIX Spikes Signal Huge Investment Opportunities Ahead
Every single time the VIX soars and panic ensues there has been a tremendous opportunity for investors. Buckle up. That moment may be coming soon. 🙏🏻👊🏻💪🏻
WTI Cracks $140, Near 2008 Record
After adding more than $40 a barrel in a little more than five trading sessions, the nominal record for West Texas Intermediate futures—$145.29, set on July 3, 2008—no longer seems out of reach @WSJmarkets https://t.co/rlxj1lnh5N
Corn Poised for Rally as Funds Stay on Sidelines
📈Speculative bullishness across U.S. grain/oilseed futures is at a three-year high, but funds haven't even begun to tap the potential that lies in corn. Does this mark the start of a run-up in corn? What could be the limiting factors? I covered...
WTI Could Hit $115 If Gas Gains Replicate
If the front-month WTI crude oil future matches natural gas’s 100% gain in 2026 to its January peak, it would reach about $115 a barrel -- then what by the midterms? Gas has reversed all of those gains. Spiking crude can be...
Citi Advises Holding Off Equities Amid Soaring Oil
“We see no reason to actively add equity exposure at this time as risk/reward will improve from either price action or a path to de-escaltion forming:” Citi’s Kaiser. The oil VIX reached its highest level other than during COVID since...
TDEX Crash Put Hits 97th Percentile Amid Volatility Surge
OK. Pending apocalypse or local bottom? @Nations_Indexes TailDex ($TDEX aka crash put) hit 30 on Friday with $VOLI (ATM vol) at 22.58. TDEX level is 97th percentile and spread above VOLI also 97th percentile. You don't need to look far...
Kalshi's Oil Futures: A Second‑Derivative Market Twist
Kalshi markets on oil futures is crazy because it’s a 2nd derivative. Current oil price-> CL futures (first derivative) -> Kalshi (2nd derivative). Leads to very odd dynamics if Kalshi markets get big enough
New Raise Model Guarantees Exit Options in Bear Markets
Understanding @flyingtulip_ new raise model; TLDR; Market Cap: $2k FDV: $175m Volume: $33.5m 2 weeks in (and brutal markets) and yet the token looks boring (by design). Volume is tiny (by design). Comparative projects that raised and TGE'd in the same time-frame are on average significantly...
Diversify Now; Active Hedging Won’t Save a Sinking Portfolio
With vol high/skew high but OTM calls also high and with equities in a minor drawdown those with undiversified max long U.S. equity portfolios are whipping around "options" trade ideas as the solution. Looking for ways to hedge. ...
Short‑term OTM Calls Miss Right‑Tail Market Moves
If you sold long stocks on Friday and bought 10d 3 month calls at equal notional you are going to underperform badly in most right tail events. Doing it delta neutral is highly likely to get destroyed in most...
Buy Distant Futures at Discount, Earn Risk Premium
[looks at Brent curve] Gary Gorton voice: "investors can earn a risk premium by buying distant commodity futures at a discount to spot"
Lag And
Hey energy experts, what's the lag, in days, from a change in wholesale gasoline futures to retail (AAA average) prices? And what's a good rule of thumb on the spread/mutiple between the two? (Answer in DM's if you prefer.)
Oil Futures Top $100 Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil futures surge above $100 for the first time since 2022 🚨 🛢️ Brent contract jumps more than 10% as the conflict in the Middle East continues https://t.co/KgPOv96YdC
Bitcoin Poised for $1,400 CME Gap at Open
🚨 BITCOIN CME GAP Current price: $67,000 CME open: $68,400 As it stands, Bitcoin will open a sizeable gap tonight https://t.co/rOL85QHEJw
Deriving the 80% Straddle Rule Simplified
Moontower Sunday pitchfork CLAWback In this issue: 🌙half-baked AI thoughts 🌙making your own teacher 🌙a satisfying derivation of the 80% straddle rule https://t.co/K5xTbWQpU1 refs: @outlieroptions
30-Day VIX Futures vs SPX RV21 Comparison
And here's my version using $VIX, VX30 (constant maturity VIX futures) and SPX RV21 that's ~ 30 calendar days. https://t.co/e8dCY61qju
VIX/VXV Spike Signals Near-Term Bottom, Upcoming Rally
The $VIX: $VXV ratio spiked to 1.07 on Friday. That's the biggest volatility spike since the April 2025 crash low. Last March it had an initial spike to 1.08, dropped to 0.90, then spiked to 1.27 in April, but this...
Stock Volatility Gap Hits 2008 Levels, Options Soar
Market stress is surging at a rapid pace: The spread between the average 9-month volatility of S&P 500 stocks and the S&P 500 index's 9-month volatility is up to 18 points, the highest since 2008. This spread has DOUBLED over the last...
Nifty50 Option Mispriced, Hints at Monday Move
One interesting thing I noticed in Friday’s EOD option chain for Nifty50 (10 Mar expiry)...🤔 >> Look at the marked Option, closing around ₹439.85. Based on basic OTM risk premium / volatility structure, this option’s theoretical fair value appears much higher... >>...
VIX Hits Highest Level Since April 2025 Tariff
VIX closed at its highest since the Apr'25 tariff (and above the +1 StD level).
Early Iran Risk Warning Yields Record Oil Gains
Since my client warning, VIX has risen 70%. and because I warned two weeks ahead that IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN, clients got to take full advantage of every dollar of the largest weekly gain on record in data going...
Strait of Hormuz Closure Threat Triggers S&P Futures Drop
If Citrini publishes a substack post this weekend about an extended Strait of Hormuz closure scenario S&P futures are going to open Sunday night limit down huh
VIX Spikes Often Precede Stock Rebounds—Still Just Probabilities
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
Simple Crowd‑contrarian Setups with Defined Risk Levels
So there's no exact playbook for trading against the crowd but I try to share some decent probability setups and wanted to attach notes to them. 1 thing I'd say is it doesn't need to be super complex, but you do...
Hyperliquid Open, Oil Perps Drive Weekend Price Discovery
It's the weekend and the TradExchanges' computers must caddy for their humans on the golf course. But @HyperliquidX is always open for trading. The oil perp CL-USDC is where price discovery will happen this weekend as bombs continue to fall...