Bitcoin Funding Rates Hit Most Negative Since 2023, History Suggests Bottom Is In
Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rates have plunged to their most negative level since 2023, reaching a seven‑day average of about -0.005%. The dip reflects heavy short positioning even as the cryptocurrency has rallied from the low‑mid $60,000 range to roughly $75,000. Historical data shows that sharply negative funding often coincides with local price bottoms, suggesting the current market may be nearing a floor. Analysts view the divergence between bearish bets and rising prices as a potential catalyst for further upside.
Corn's Tight Range Signals Potential April‑May Price Peak
Range-Bound Ags Ripe to Move - Is Up Sustainable? The agriculture sector may be guided by corn -- its most significant commodity -- which hasn't ended a quarter outside a per-bushel range of about $4-$5 since 2Q23. That managed money (hedge...
Volatility Mean-Reverts Faster than Ever Before
We know that volatility mean reverts, but the difference is that we're now seeing this process happening faster than ever https://t.co/CvF1jnIYd0
Ohio Casino Control Commission Fines Kalshi $5 Million for Unlicensed Binary‑options Contracts
The Ohio Casino Control Commission imposed a $5 million penalty on prediction‑market platform Kalshi for offering binary‑options style contracts without a license. The fine follows a federal court ruling that treated the contracts as gambling, not swaps, and comes as Kalshi...
Option Volume Jumps 17% as Calls Outpace Puts
From @Cboe: Wednesday's option volume of 79.1M contracts was 17% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 13 to 8. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30-day IV was higher for 298 and lower for 157.
CFTC Probes Suspicious Oil Futures Trades Ahead of Trump’s Iran Policy Shift
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has launched a probe into oil futures contracts traded on CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange platforms, alleging the trades were timed ahead of President Donald Trump’s policy shift on the Iran war. Regulators have...
SPX Futures Up 6
$spx futures +6. Make sure to trim and trail on Day#12 to book some gains if ur active
Implied Moves Reveal Today's Earnings Winners and Losers
This is the implied move for the stocks of today's reporting companies: $TSM $PEP $ABT $SCHW $PLD $BK $TRV $USB $CFG $MRSH $NFLX $AA $FNB $CNS $SFNC $INDB $LAKE https://t.co/PVJ72KjMaD
CFTC Probes Oil Futures Trades Tied to Trump's Moves in Iran: Report
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating two sharp spikes in oil‑futures trading that occurred minutes before President Trump announced a postponed strike on Iranian energy assets on March 23 and a cease‑fire on April 7. The probe focuses on activity...
Cocoa Producers Boost Hedge Sales as Prices Slip 2.6% on Margin Pressure
Cocoa producers in the Ivory Coast surged forward sales to 800,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 season, triggering a 2.6% drop in May ICE futures. The surge in hedge unwinding coincides with record short positions by funds and inventory levels...
CME Group Launches Mid‑Curve Options on S&P 500 Dividend Index Futures
CME Group announced that on May 11 it will introduce mid‑curve options on S&P 500 Annual Dividend Index futures, plus quarterly dividend futures for the Nasdaq‑100 and Russell 2000. The move follows a more‑than‑50% year‑over‑year surge in trading of its dividend products,...
Taiwan Insurers’ Hedging Pivot Cements Global Bond Prowess
Taiwan’s life insurers are reshaping the management of their roughly $700 billion overseas bond portfolio, a move that solidifies the island’s standing as a major global fixed‑income investor. New accounting standards introduced this year require insurers to seek higher foreign returns...
Local Government Debt Swaps, Fiscal-Financial Governance, and Bank Risk in China
China’s debt‑swap program, launched to convert implicit local government liabilities into explicit securities, is showing measurable effects on the banking sector. Using a 2011‑2024 bank‑region panel, researchers find that overall bank risk declines, but the impact varies by ownership. State‑owned...
How A Government Gold Price Reset Could Actually Work...
Gold futures slipped $30 on Wednesday, settling at $4,820 per ounce, while silver futures fell 15 cents to $79.39. The article explores a hypothetical government‑driven gold price reset, outlining the mechanical steps such a move would require. It also notes...
Market Watch: US Gas Futures Inch Higher From 18-Month Low
U.S. natural gas futures edged up 1.1 cents on Wednesday, trading at $2.61 per million British thermal units after hitting an 18‑month trough earlier in the week. Analysts at Gelber & Associates expect a modest reprieve in demand, with a...
Natural Gas Futures, Apr. 15, 2026
The natural gas market is under pressure from several fronts: Russia’s Portovaya LNG terminal has resumed blacklisted sales, adding Russian cargoes back into global supply; Australia is debating an LNG export tax and curbs to address a domestic fuel‑security crisis;...
SEC Approves Exemptive Order and Proposed Rule Change to Permit Customer Cross-Margining in the U.S. Treasury Market
The SEC issued a conditional exemptive order that permits broker‑dealers registered as futures commission merchants to cross‑margin customer cash Treasury positions cleared by FICC with Treasury futures cleared by CME. In parallel, the SEC approved a FICC rule change to...
#58777
Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN) will hold a shareholder vote on May 6, 2026 to approve a merger with GT Silver BidCo, an affiliate of Permira Investors. If approved, each CWAN Class A share converts into a right to receive $24.55 in cash, translating to $2,455...
Morning Rant – 4/15/26
The "Morning Rant – 4/15/26" is a brief market commentary by JB, featuring a graphic of current stock market data. In a few paragraphs, JB outlines the day’s equity sentiment, notes macro‑economic drivers such as the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting,...
New Goldman Sachs Bitcoin Fund Is Built for Advisers Seeking Yield, Not Traders Chasing the Next Rally
Goldman Sachs filed a Form 485(a)(2) to launch the Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, an actively managed fund that generates yield by selling covered‑call options on Bitcoin exposure. Rather than holding Bitcoin directly, the vehicle will invest in spot Bitcoin ETPs...
#58773
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) is applying Rule 807 to accelerate the expiration of equity stock option contracts that have been adjusted for cash‑only delivery, moving their expiry to April 17, 2026. All affected series will adopt a $0.01 exercise‑by‑exception threshold regardless of...
Don't Look Now, but Target Is Outperforming the S&P 500. Trading the Pop Using Options
Target Corp. (TGT) has posted a strong three‑month run, beating the S&P 500 by roughly 18.5% while its own share price rose about 5%. A modest March producer‑price index showed inflation confined to energy, easing pressure on freight costs and consumer...
💡Trade Idea for Wednesday, April 15, 2026
A trader shares a systematic wheel trade idea for Wednesday, April 15, 2026, recommending the sale of a deep out‑of‑the‑money put near a recent support base. The put is positioned well below the current price to collect premium while limiting...
Mid-Session IV Report April 15, 2026
The mid‑session IV report for April 15, 2026 highlights sharp spikes in option implied volatility ahead of earnings for several high‑profile names, notably Netflix (IV 110 for April calls) and Alcoa (IV 127). Call‑to‑put ratios reveal divergent market sentiment, with U.S. Bancorp showing a heavy...
#58772
The Options Clearing Corporation announced a consolidation of ten flex series effective at the opening of business on April 16, 2026. Bloom Energy Corporation’s option will shift from the old symbol 1BE to the new BE C for the November 20, 2026 expiration (series 300). Multiple...
Understanding Market Volatility: What History Teaches Us About Turbulent Times
Bridgeway Capital’s head of research, Andrew Berkin, analyzed U.S. equities from July 1963 through early 2025 to assess how markets behave during and after volatility spikes. He found that while volatility spikes—such as the April 2025 VIX surge to over 50—are sharp and brief,...
Parlez-Vous Oil Trader?
The Blindspot premium article introduces key oil‑market concepts—backwardation, physical differentials, and time spreads—and explains what they mean for traders. Backwardation describes a market where near‑term contracts trade above distant futures, indicating tight short‑term supply. Physical differentials capture price gaps between...
Negative BTC Funding Signals Impending Short Squeeze
$BTC is preparing for a short squeeze. Why do I think so? Well, funding rates are negative on futures. The best part: futures are back on centralized exchanges in Europe. @okx launched X-Perps on their exchange. Available for EU clients, with up to 10x...
CME Group to Launch Mid-Curve Options on S&P 500 Annual Dividend Index Futures
CME Group announced it will launch mid‑curve options on S&P 500 Annual Dividend Index futures on May 11, pending regulatory clearance. The new contracts join Nasdaq‑100 and Russell 2000 quarterly dividend futures, expanding CME’s Equity Index Dividend suite. Trading activity in dividend futures...
January Gas Expected Below $4.40 in Q4
January Gas: Above $5.40 or Below $4.40 in 4Q? A year ago, the January 2027 natural gas future was roughly the same as the $4.60 per MMBtu on April 14, indicating the price to expect in 4Q. A move below the...
S&P 500 Options Hit Record $15B Positive Delta
S&P500 options registered +$15 billion positive delta today. Highest I've ever seen. That is nuts. https://t.co/gAFHpty8kz
8x-Bagger Tail Risk Hedge *
Investors are riding a wave of optimism that "we are so back," but the author warns that market cycles often flip to "it’s so over," making tail‑risk hedges essential. The piece highlights that well‑structured hedges can generate outsized returns—up to...
Market Rally Fueled by Call/Put Oversold Reversal
One support behind the market’s surge last week was the reversal in sentiment from an oversold extreme, at least as judged by the call/put ratio. That ratio is still negative. https://t.co/i43C3jXDt6
AI Agents Can Craft Precise Bitcoin Options for Political Outcomes
.@itseneff: 'If you think Bitcoin hits 76–80K if Trump does X, but crashes to 50K if he doesn't — AI agents can translate that into the exact right options structure.' The most concrete AI + DeFi argument I've come across....
S&P 500 Futures – Elliott Wave Perspective
The latest Elliott Wave analysis of S&P 500 E‑mini futures shows the market entrenched in an impulsive structure within a long‑term rising channel. According to the chart, price is now in the final stages of a multi‑year Wave 5, the culmination of...
Extracting R Beats Imposing It for Consistent Volatilities
Put that thread in the Louvre. The disconnect comes from whether you impose r or extract it from synthetic If you impose it you often get different call and put vols but if you try to arb it you learn...
Nasdaq Options Cheap as Volatility Drops Ahead of Earnings
📈 Nasdaq options are cheap. The market just doesn't know it yet... Vol is on the decline right as earnings season heats up. $NDX $VXN https://t.co/fV5qBDe52C
Deribit Spots $100M Gamma Roundtrip Trade as US‑Iran Talks Sway Crypto Options
Deribit Insights reported a $100 million BTC put gamma roundtrip and several multi‑million ETH call blocks that surged as US‑Iran negotiations unfolded, then unwound when talks stalled. The flow shows how options traders are using gamma‑heavy positions to hedge or speculate...
Friday OPEX May Disrupt Options Amid Market Rebound
While the market has rebounded from recent lows, Friday's monthly OPEX could shake up options positioning — delivering a meaningful impact to the broader market. Get the full breakdown with SpotGamma, live at 1pm ET today: https://t.co/nDCjAQLXcO
SPY Climbs, VIX Falls, yet VIXY Rises—Who's
Just one day and it's not over - $SPY up ✅ $VIX down ✅ but VIXY up ❌ Which one of you is buying VIX futures?? 🤔 https://t.co/h1DXe2Bnxh
CME Lithium Carbonate Futures Contract Records Consecutive Monthly Trading Volume High in April 2026
Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s lithium carbonate futures saw a record monthly trading volume of 3,473 lots in April 2026, eclipsing the previous high of 2,373 lots set in March. Daily activity also peaked at 1,600 lots on April 2, the highest single‑day...
Option-Based ETFs Evolve: Insights From ISSB & ISBG
Moontower today is a change of pace...I reviewed 2 option-based ETFs, ISSB and ISBG, which are sub-advised by Convexitas. https://t.co/8FQPV4kgUm I learned a lot about ETFs writing this especially since there have been big changes the last few years vs when...
NVMI Sees Massive ITM Call Buying, Bullish Surge
Nova Measuring (NVMI) strong Semi Equipment name sees massive trade buy 1400 August $490 ITM calls as April $420 adjust a winner from 2/18 that is +50%
SPX Holds Positive Gamma; 7025 OI Leads Upside
SPX overall positive gamma still holding. -7,025 is the biggest 0DTE OI right to upside. -Downside eyes on 6,965 Now trial it in BLOOMBERG: APPS SPOTGAMMA Updating every minute of every day - not that stale bank stuff + see SPX gamma map +5...
AXTI Calls
Big calls went off on $AXTI 15k August $115 calls hot on $AXTI Mizuho Optical Expert call on now $LITE $AAOI $AXTI
60M QQQ Call Options Set to Expire Today
QQQ $60M of Jan. 575 and March 590 calls look to be cashing out today
Delivery-Month Trade: Potential Lcj/Lcm Upside Post-Correction
It's in delivery and not for everyone, but wonder if the Lcj/lcm doesn't smoke higher right into expiration after a nice correction. Not a recommendation and this trade is in the delivery month.
QQQ Buyer Shifts 20k Calls, Signals Overbought
Nasdaq (QQQ) buyer 20,000 June $675 calls $4.26, adjusts June $640 taking off some Delta into overbought
Buy April 185/187.5 Call Spread, Sell 177.5 Put
$MS "Trade Idea 2: Buy the April 185/187.50 Call Spread ($1.25) and sell the April 177.50 Put for 40 cents." puts expire, sell to close call spread on any weakness in stock or can watch to see if maxes out...
Buy BAC 54/55 Call Spread, Sell 52 Put
$BAC "Trade Idea 2: Buy the April 54/55 Call Spread (34 cents) and sell the April 52 Put for 1 cent.' puts expire, sell to close call spread on any weakness in stock price.