
Buffer ETFs, a $80 billion defined‑outcome fund category, are emerging as a bond alternative amid volatile markets and rising Treasury yields. The largest vehicle, FT Vest Laddered Buffer ETF, fell only 1.4% in March versus a 2.7% drop in the S&P 500, illustrating its downside‑protection promise. Advisors and endowments, such as the University of Connecticut, are shifting to these options‑based funds after bonds proved unreliable as hedges during the Iran war and 2022 rate‑spike sell‑offs. Critics caution that the trade‑off may lower long‑term returns.
One last comment on $STRC as I am bored of the whole thing and happy just owning long $IBIT Over the next year you could own STRC and get 11.5% yield. Or Go long IBIT and short ATM call and collect...

Yesterday's post on CL time spreads combined with this image of USO which has time spreads on the same underlying regardless of maturity (CL1) creates a fascinating circle to square. Anyone running the SEC/CFTC jurisdiction RV desk knows the fun...
Silver futures on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange fell 2% to ₹2.62 lakh per kilogram, a ₹5,354 drop, as crude‑oil prices rose and inflation concerns intensified. The decline mirrored a near‑3% slide in May COMEX contracts, pricing at $82.89 per ounce. Analysts...

Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...
Boolish Silver folks watching May Futures drop $3 and getting close to sub $80. If folks really really wanted more physical, they should have stayed long March Futures, the open interest is a measly 875 contracts vs 77,604 in May (FYI...

Crude oil’s deep, liquid futures market makes it a prime playground for day traders and systematic strategies. A 2019 study found that the price movement in the first half‑hour of trading (9:30‑10:00 a.m. EST) reliably predicts the final half‑hour (3:30‑4:00 p.m. EST)....

$MU entry on puts @IUTraders and game plan -- sometimes you just have to ask ... 😎 https://t.co/aetAdrJh6S

Beta of SPX to 1pt chg in the VIX has fallen to uncomfortable levels. Opposite in many ways to Volmaggedon where VIX was at depressed levels, but SPX showing almost no response to implied vol changes. https://t.co/zaPe03rueo
Docebo Inc. (DCBO) options have transitioned to Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) through the National Securities Clearing Corporation, effective March 5, 2026. All exercise and assignment activity from March 12, 2026 onward will settle via NSCC, eliminating broker‑to‑broker settlement for new transactions. Existing broker‑to‑broker obligations...
$ADBE "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 13 Expiry 275/280 Call Spread ($2.85) and sell the March 13 Expiry 255 Put for 30 cents.' a bust, call spread will expire. Will need to roll puts down and out.

$VIX near 28. Not panic. Not calm. The worst place to be — the uncomfortable middle. Panic capitulates. Calm is stable. The middle is where real damage gets done slowly. Watch this number. https://t.co/hPhtbG45FE
President Donald Trump’s administration plans to use commodity swaps to offset a 172 million‑barrel emergency drawdown from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, aiming to add over 200 million barrels back within a year at no cost to taxpayers. The swaps would exploit the...

Again with Friday the 13th! And no love in the vol complex as we head into the weekend. https://t.co/x0OcW7xE6R https://t.co/eLS7V3zlfE
Curious ? Inflation swap traders. Do you do partial arbitrage on inflation swaps using long dated oil contracts? For instance if receiving inflation do you sell CLM6 and buy CLM7 given that 8-20% of the cpi basket is...

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 35.3 amid the U.S.–Iran conflict and has settled near 26, indicating lingering market fear. The S&P 500 has slipped about 3 % since the war began, while Brent crude surged to roughly $100 per barrel,...
Here's a post on the basics of vertical spreads. I'll publish a more advanced one in X Articles for Friday the 13th. https://t.co/MEeZsvbmyb
Not for nothing but any other time in say the last 8 years of Fintwit the current broadening $ES_F chart would have hundreds of 07-08 analogs on it.

Options traders are pricing in heightened risk as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates, driving premiums on oil‑related contracts. CME Group’s CEO Terry Duffy warned that any U.S. attempt to directly intervene in oil futures could trigger a “biblical disaster,” potentially destabilizing...
Silver: The truth about recent Deliveries........ only talking COMEX Guys are posting Bullish comments here regarding Silver deliveries, and folks wanting to take position of the Metal. I wonder if they understand the longs are not in control of the delivery...
Earnings lottos 3/12/26 Adobe $290 Calls 255 Puts RBRK $63 Calls $48 Puts ULTA $682 Calls 597.5 Puts I don’t love em but let’s see what we got
U.S. natural gas futures were largely flat Thursday, with the front‑month contract up 1.3 cents to $3.222 per MMBtu. The Energy Information Administration reported a 38 Bcf draw from storage for the week ended March 6, near the low end of forecasts....

This chart, which has been doing the rounds, shows one of the most hedged equity markets in years. That usually means fear is already priced in, and the risk asymmetry increasingly favors upside surprises rather than further panic selling. This chart...

U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...

Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire is targeting mid‑guidance pricing for its $100 million Kizuna Re III catastrophe bond, which provides earthquake reinsurance for the Tokio Marine group. The bond, issued through a Singapore‑based SPV, carries a three‑year rolling aggregate trigger and a...
Jane Street, AQR, Ren Tech... All use volatility. Retail was locked out... until now. A 327 page PDF was just released. For free:

Gamma exposure for the combined $SPX + $SPY view shows mostly negative exposure under spot. $6700 is a key support level; if it breaks, we could see a move towards $6650 pretty quickly. The range we are currently in is...

Advisors are increasingly considering SPX short box spreads as an alternative financing tool. The strategy involves a four‑leg options package that delivers cash today in exchange for a known liability at expiration, effectively acting like a zero‑coupon bond. Because SPX...
ISOs are attractive because, under the right conditions, gains from their exercise and sale can qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. However, to receive this preferential tax treatment, employees must wait to sell the employer stock until at least one...
#Corn story seems to be getting more and more bullish and the #soybean story seems to be getting much more negative. This isn't a production issue for soybeans such as hot and dry weather cutting the crop. The...
The First Trust Vest S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Target Income ETF (KNG) has been rated a Buy, positioned to outperform in a flat 2026 market. KNG employs a rules‑based buy‑write strategy, writing monthly covered calls on Dividend Aristocrats to generate roughly...
SHFE #Silver Tide Turns 🌊 🚨The Shanghai Futures Exchange just recorded its largest single-day inflow in two and a half months

How come the India VIX below is lower than it was during the Russia-Ukraine crisis? The US Vix is also lower than last year's wars and the Tariff announcements. Either we have not discounted the real extent of what has...
Dow futures slipped 561 points, or 1.2%, as Brent crude breached the $100‑a‑barrel mark, rising 9.3% to $100.52. West Texas Intermediate also surged, up 9% to $95.12. The U.S. Energy Secretary announced a release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic...

Opened a 23900..23800 bull put spread on Nifty (17 Mar expiry). >> Sold 23900 PE @ 304.75 >> Bought 23800 PE @ 231.85 (hedge) Net credit 👉 ₹72.9 View is simple: Nifty should expire at/above 23900....Structure wise this means I'm short gamma near 23900,...
"You absolutely need index derivatives. Doing things token by token is not a good way for markets to evolve." @baehr https://t.co/KrlOhykve7
Chinese exporters are scrambling to hedge yuan appreciation, driving a record $39 bn net foreign‑currency sell‑off in January and $100 bn dollar net sales in December. Regulators have issued informal "window guidance" urging banks to lift corporate hedging ratios to roughly 40 %...
"Perps are a brilliant innovation and they've proven themselves successful, but not extremely compatible with how Americans tend to trade." https://t.co/KrlOhykve7

Methanex (MEOH) up over 9% now with buyers 2850 April $65 calls $2.10 to $2.45 The research works .. https://t.co/MV0sW89wl4

Someone has opened a $8,390,000 Oil short position today on Hyperliquid. Liquidation price: $147.94. https://t.co/LxECXDypMz
Mosaic (MOS) 9100 April $37.5 calls buy 1.05 as these names keep going The power of industry-wide flow trends
$USO leads everything today in IV30 rise, +15%, the exact opposite of what we want to see
Those who smoke brisket can relate. In big move days the move happens rapidly till about now. Then the combination of 0DTE and leveraged ETF rebalance flows causes a 4 hour stall. Wrap the meat. Leave...
Wow. The cost for protection is nearly off the charts. Feels extreme given S&P 500 is about 4% from new ATHs. Nice one from @MacroCharts

Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb

The futures/spot ratio for #BTC on Binance is rising rapidly. According to data from CryptoQuant, traders are once again piling into leveraged positions, hoping to become fabulously wealthy. https://t.co/XQeEiRuPWB

Futures are struggling with the WTD AVWAP, a break of the overnight lows could be troublesome $ES_F $NQ_F https://t.co/pQGwLxlyHR
If you thought commodities were fun with the retail crowd, just wait until they dive into puts.

At-the-money implied vol ($VOLI) normally trades at a premium to tail hedge ($TDEX). Makes sense. Both are elevated for obvious reasons. Folks agitated about the Middle East. This chart needs to repair itself before spooz can resume their cruise. @Nations_Indexes...
holy shit, @perplexity_ai computer build an options screener with AI built in for my parents in 35 minutes