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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
Institutional investors and market makers are facing an unprecedented concentration of SPY put open interest ahead of the March 20, 2026 triple‑witching expiration. The imbalance, with over 100,000 contracts at strikes 660, 645 and even 520, dwarfs the thinner call side centered around 690‑700. Analysts warn that the crowded downside hedge could amplify price swings as dealers dynamically hedge the positions.
On March 17, 2026, Bitcoin surged past $75,000, reaching $75,800, as traders unwound large short‑put positions and spot ETFs recorded record inflows. Market makers, highlighted by 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, bought spot BTC to rebalance exposure, while analysts at...
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a report attributing the 36% plunge in silver on January 30 to the expanding role of leveraged exchange‑traded funds (ETFs). Retail investors poured into double‑levered products such as AGQ, forcing rapid rebalancing in silver...
JPMorgan's Hedged Equity Laddered Overlay ETF (HELO) delivers S&P 500 exposure while slashing volatility roughly in half through a collar options structure. The design caps upside potential but consistently trims drawdowns, making it a defensive tool during risk‑off periods. With outright...
April natural‑gas futures on the NYMEX edged up 1 cent to $3.033 per million Btu, keeping the contract near the psychologically important $3 handle. Gelber & Associates highlighted a tug‑of‑war between brief late‑season cold snaps and a broader spring‑warming trend,...
Today's agricultural futures market moved in mixed directions before rallying across the board. Soybeans saw spread trading keep spot prices flat while deferred contracts gained, and the whole soy complex later rose on energy support. Corn prices were buoyed by...
A trader is re‑entering a cash‑secured put (CSP) position on a specific stock after several profitable rotations. The trade is anchored by a Probability of Profit (POP) of 88% and a Probability of Worthlessness (POW) of 85%, indicating a strong...
On 6 March 2026 the FCA released Consultation Paper 26/8 proposing to raise the UK commodity clearing threshold from €3 billion to €5 billion. The change addresses nearly 90 % commodity price inflation since the 2016 threshold was set, which has effectively lowered...
Effective March 30, 2026 the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) will cease collecting Large Trader Files for contracts cleared on the Cboe Futures Exchange (CFE). Futures commission merchants, clearing members and foreign brokers must submit Large Trader Reports directly to the CFTC and...
MongoDB is emerging as a high‑conviction option trade as technical indicators signal a potential bounce. A fast MACD crossover on March 9 and an RSI recovery above the 30 oversold threshold suggest renewed buying pressure. The author proposes a 265/270 bull...
The author is closing three cash‑secured put positions on Rocket Lab (RKLB), Oklo (OKLO) and Symbotic (SYM) after capturing the majority of the premiums. Each trade shows over 85% premium collected, with RKLB at 90.77% and a 10‑day expiry, OKLO...
📺 RANGE COMPRESSION IN $NVDA, EARNINGS RISK IN $MU $NVDA raised its AI outlook to roughly $1 trillion in demand/revenue visibility through 2027, effectively doubling prior expectations and reinforcing the long-term AI bull case. Despite that, Nvidia is still range-bound and struggling...
In this episode, host Eric Rourke explains the distinction between market conditions and trading signals, emphasizing why conditions matter more for credit spread trading. He illustrates how using simple moving average crossovers as ongoing conditions, rather than one‑time signals, allows...
Day 8 running my automated trading strategy on Micro Nasdaq futures (MNQ). Two clean trades. Market was choppy, so position size was reduced to 2 MNQ contracts to control risk and stay consistent. Same rule based execution. Same entry confirmation. No overtrading. Adjusting position size based...
Call positioning continues across the full spectrum of Biofuel names w/ gasoline prices sky high and 45Z tax credits in focus ADM BG DAR FF GPRE ANDE Could see junky plays GEVO AMTX run as well
Legal scholar John C. Coffee highlights how prediction‑market platforms like Polymarket and CFTC‑regulated Kalshi have allowed traders to profit from bets on U.S. military action and leadership changes in Iran. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) possesses authority under Rule 40.11...
In the last 2 hours we only had 2 candles greater than 20 points in NQ that basically means that we only 10bps moves just 1.6% of the time this afternoon. These are the days that try scalpers souls https://t.co/UBos7R9C8l
RBOB gasoline futures $3.12 - that's very close to the spike high Sunday night last week https://t.co/x2eJ04zPio
Kevin Hassett highlighted on CBS Face the Nation that oil futures are pricing a rapid decline in oil prices, even as spot gasoline prices surge due to current Strait disruptions. The forward curve suggests Brent will not revert to its pre‑war...
Oil futures having a hard time rising much in anticipation of the scarcity barreling down toward us all when—as we saw last week—jawboning can dump prices by $10 and blow folks out We'll need physical markets to drag paper barrels to...
$USO There's a lot going on behind the CL chart, lots of inflationary stuff we will see as the year goes on https://t.co/QQRYWzhzi2
The Iran‑Israel war has reignited fears of a major disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending shockwaves through global markets. Gold futures remain near $5,013 per ounce while silver hovers around $81, reflecting heightened volatility but limited...
Friday's OPEX has $1.2 trillion in delta notional set to expire. Given highly elevated vols, this expiration could be highly impactful. Don't miss our March OPEX analysis at 1pm ET tomorrow: https://t.co/55HHarmCC7
Vol through the lens of @CBOE vol indices: better than 3/6; not as good as 2/27; pesky 9-day VIX refusing to cooperate. https://t.co/isod6NdR6y
Lawrence G. McMillan outlines the current wave of implied‑volatility trading as geopolitical tension in Iran pushes put‑call ratios higher and lifts the Cboe VIX and its related products. The article notes that equity puts and S&P 500 index puts are driving...
And for what it’s worth I just think the bull spreads are (sn/sx) just shaking the trees right now. I expect new highs in that spread at some point. Not a recommendation and there is a risk of loss in...
$DOCU "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 47.50/48 Call Spread (95 cents) and sell the March 41.50 Put for 30 cents." sell to close call spread on any weakness, puts expire.
U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Monday despite a cold snap that boosted heating demand. A rebound in deeply negative West Texas prices lifted the national average, masking softness elsewhere. European TTF gas and U.S. WTI crude stayed above recent...
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...
More and more traders are looking to express a view on the weekends — with crypto. But perps function more like options than futures for retail traders, and that distinction matters more than most realize when leverage is on the...
The piece highlights a widening gap between realized equity volatility and the higher implied volatility priced into options, suggesting market complacency. It warns that clearing existing puts and VIX call positions ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting and QOPEX could...
$30M Call Spike on $NVDA after NVDA ceo says he expects revenue to surpass $1 trillion by 2027. 👇
Most traders blame their entries, indicators, or strategy. But the truth is… You lose before the trade even starts. Markets operate like an auction. Once you understand: • Price rotation • Value areas • Market structure Tools like VWAP and Volume Profile finally make sense. Comment “I’m in” and...
Vistra Corp (VST) rose 0.9% to $160.41, edging toward its year‑to‑date breakeven level after a prolonged slump. The stock's buy‑to‑open put/call ratio surged into the 90th percentile, crossing 1.0—a signal that has occurred only eight times in the past three...
1-month realized vol is still above 3-month realized vol. That keeps the market in a high-volatility regime, which forces vol-control funds to reduce equity exposure as volatility rises. If 1M realized vol drops back below 3M realized vol, systematic strategies will be...
Now build out a 6 month +-7% range, take Ethereum down 50%, kill the high beta trash, bomb Iran again but this time close the Strait of Hormuz, and then rally $ES_F twice in a row off the 200 dma....
YieldMax XOM Option Income Strategy ETF (XOMO) generates weekly distributions by selling call options on Exxon Mobil stock, delivering an eye‑catching 30% dividend‑equivalent yield as oil prices surge above $100 and market volatility spikes. The fund’s income stems from option premiums,...
$VIX had to come down with a 1% gain in $SPX. 3.7 points is a big drop for a 1% change, but we've been over-vixxing for a while now, as shown in the second chart. https://t.co/OV1trbLQxV
Notable FX options expiring tomorrow: 1.6 bln euros at $1.15 $720 mln at JPY158.40 A$430 mln at $0.7100 and A$485 at $0.7045 $685 mln at BRL5.20 $550 mln at CAD1.3645
Derive, formerly Lyra Finance, has transitioned from an Optimism‑based AMM to its own OP‑Stack rollup appchain featuring a central limit order book. The platform now offers options, perpetuals, and spot trading, with options remaining its core product, supported by an...
Yes, this is why boatloads of $NVDA puts were sold to open this morning And yes, all the other options flow sites thought they bought https://t.co/6AWLqSDvRH
📉CBOT May soybeans have plunged the daily 70-cent trading limit after weekend U.S.-China talks - touted as successful - were viewed unfavorably (possible Trump-Xi meeting delay, mention of non-soybean row crop purchases). CBOT May bean oil was also limit down....
The March 16 mid‑session IV report highlights rising implied volatility across leading tech stocks, with NVIDIA, Broadcom, Arm and CoreWeave showing notable IV levels below their 52‑week peaks. It flags extreme IV spikes for upcoming earnings—Lululemon, DocuSign and Oklo all posting...
Global FX derivatives daily turnover hit $6.6 trillion in April 2025, about double the 2013 level. While FX swaps still dominate, outright forwards and options are growing fastest, reshaping product composition. Trading remains concentrated in London, though Asia‑Pacific’s share is rising and...
bought to close the $NVDA Mar 165 puts (was a roll from a workout of strangle sales for earnings)
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) recommends that synthetic risk transfers (SRTs) be incorporated into system‑wide stress tests to expose hidden vulnerabilities. SRT usage has expanded fivefold since 2016, covering roughly €800 billion of loan portfolios and delivering about 43 basis...
May Beans: largest daily down bar for May contract. note: Momentum sell div at the top, 3 bar triangle, then range expansion today on downside breakout. Despite news left and right, market technicals remain consistent...
Treasury (TLT) early big buying June $84 calls 7000X for $3M, need to see Bonds hold up for stocks to stabilize
The bid for tail hedges could be seen in mid-Feb and peaked for now on 3/6. Meanwhile, ATM IV (VOLI) remains elevated. Big week with VIXperation on Weds and quarterly OpEx on Friday. Relax at your own risk. https://t.co/BdigWM05b0
$ES_F $NQ_F Green is the YTD low day VWAP / red is last wk high anchor = overhead levels of interest ES and NQ purple = new WTD anchor Both are below decl 5sma (not shown) https://t.co/ZoZZ8cTXK0
