U.S. Home Sales Hit 2009 Low; Buyers on Historic Strike
Home sales just dropped to the lowest level since 2009. Down 35% from pandemic peak, and by 25% from pre-pandemic norms. This was the 2nd-worst February reading in the last 30 years. Traditional news outlets tried to claim there was a "recovery" in demand in February 2026. But that's obviously false. Rather - buyers are on their biggest strike in U.S. history. The solution to bring them back? Lower prices.
2026 Housing Trends: County Data Shows T
The housing market so far in 2026? Let's talk about it. Today, I have fresh stats for twelve counties and some new price visuals to help interpret what is happening. I also talk about my favorite phrase, "all ships rise...
Rising Taxes Trigger Housing Supply Surge, Fuel Doom Loop
if you keep increasing the taxy levy without real benefits, eventually new supply (some forced) comes into market and lowers price, which then increases the tax rate burden as a % of asset that makes it very unattractive this is the...
Supply Surge, Not Weak Demand, Drives Rent Cuts
Here's a crazy-yet-telling apartment stat: Among the top 15 markets CUTTING rents, they collectively had 2x more demand (absorption) than the top 15 markets INCREASING rents. Why? Because it's all about supply, not weak demand or affordability etc. Among the top 15 markets...
Big‑Box Spaces Pivot to Fitness, Pickleball, Entertainment
That empty big box store in your shopping center might not become another retailer. Fitness, pickleball, and entertainment concepts are taking over second-generation retail space as goods retailers shrink. Landlords are repurposing boxes instead of waiting years for another anchor. Still marketing retail...
Both Private Assets and US Housing Face Dismal Returns
I'm trying to decide which asset class will have worse returns over the next 5 years: Private assets or U.S. residential real estate. Private assets are illiquid and investors are getting impatient, while home prices have outrun incomes and no one...
China's Trade Surplus Grows as Property Recovery Stalls
Frustrating. China won't use the "clean" balance sheet of the central government to support a real recovery from the prolonged property market slump. The net result: a rising trade surplus supports China's growth at the expense of its trading...
SUPR Trades Near NTA, Targets Dividend Growth, Acquisition Opportunities
#SUPR results OK. EPRA NTA per Share 87.5p (up) against Share price 82p; so discount relatively small now. Cost down from bringing operation in-house. Target minimum 2% Dividend Growth from FY2027. Appears to be lots of opportunities to acquire Supermarket...
Institutional Homebuying Ban: What It Actually Changes
What the institutional homebuying ban actually does, according to ResiClub’s reading of the bipartisan Senate housing bill Me + @MalasMeghan's latest ResiClub PRO report: https://t.co/GIci6e5eqY
Single‑Family Home Supply Peaks, Demand Frozen; Condo Sales Crash
Supply of Single-Family Homes Surges to Highest for February in 9 Years, Demand Stuck in the Deepfreeze. Condo sales plunged to a record low shared with two other months https://t.co/U3vgbxThRe https://t.co/3Dk5D9QugD
Housing Affordability Improves, Yet Outlook Remains Fragile
Joined @SchwabNetwork to discuss the spring housing outlook. Affordability is improving, rates are lower than a year ago, and pent-up demand is real. But a low-hire, low-fire labor market and geopolitical uncertainty keep the outlook fragile. I'm still cautiously optimistic.
February Median Home Prices Rise—Expected, Not Surprising
Not a shocker to see the median sales price tick up in February. This was expected. Happens almost every single year. Remember, the median isn't a perfect metric to gauge price change (there is no perfect metric). Lots of stats...
AMH Offers Lease Buyouts for Tenants Amid Builder Aggression
Institutional landlord AMH says some Florida homebuilders are buying out their tenants leases "Some of the builders in our Florida markets got pretty aggressive, and we're willing to buy out some of our leases for our residents who were...
Housing Stagflation Boosts Buyer Leverage Amid Seller Fatigue
The housing market is hitting stagflation. Jobs are cooling, but the unauthorized war in Iran is keeping oil prices and rates high. Sellers are losing patience and re-listings are at a decade high, giving buyers more leverage. https://t.co/tK43N2ajFT
30-Year Mortgage Rates Drop 63 Bps, Spread Narrows
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.09% Same day last year: 6.72% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.12% Spread today: 197 bps
Feb 2026 Home Sales Fall 17% Below
U.S. existing home sales total 257,000 in February 2026 Since 2000, February has averaged 310,000 U.S. existing home sales Resale turnover remains constrained Table via @ResidentialClub Data via @nardotrealtor https://t.co/4g2dE9eSU5
Existing-Home Sales Rise to 4.09 M; Prices Edge
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.09 million SAAR in February Median House Prices Increased 0.3% Year-over-Year https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-836
February Home Sales Rebound Slightly; Supply Growth Lags
February home sales see small rebound, but supply growth is 'sluggish' https://t.co/lU7RWyXYsP @nardotrealtor #realestate #realestateinvesting #housing
Housing Inventory Shrinks to 1.29M, Far Below 2007
1.29 million total inventory in 2026 4,000,000 in 2007 It's 2026, the 4th year after the big sales crash in 2022. Stop dancing with a ghost 🫡
Ignore Recent Dip, Trend Since June Remains Upward
So we can move along from this 2-month period Last month's report was a holiday softness; the rebound should be discounted as well, and just forget these last two months and follow the trend that has been since mid-June
Final Home Sales Report Shows Snow Impact, Outlook Stable
Just remember, this is the final existing home sales report that has some of the snow variable in it; our forward-looking data looks fine for the last 3 weeks https://t.co/JtXKhBSDDM
Canadian Rents Drop 17 Months Straight, Still Too High
Rents In Canada Falling For 17 Straight Months: A Good News Bad News Story Let's be really clear on this: in 2023 - 2024 Rents in many Canadian cities were insanely high This constant drop in Rents was so badly needed BTW: Rents...
Austin’s Housing Surge Fueled by Rent‑control Ban
What many YIMBYs miss about the Austin housing supply miracle: Investors were willing to capitalize that construction, in part, bc, except in cases of *actual* emergency, Texas bans rent control at the state level. https://t.co/rl9bpQ94Cx
Lennar's Q4 Incentives Jump to 14%, Outpacing PulteGroup
Q4 2024 incentives rate: Lennar —> 10.0% PulteGroup —> 7.2% Q4 2025 incentives rate: Lennar —> 14.0% PulteGroup —> 9.9%
Mortgage Intent Index Peaks Highest in Over Two Years
A great dataset I recently got access to: Xactus Mortgage Intent Index. Xactus processes credit pulls in the mortgage application process. The index is based on actual apps. It is highly correlated with the Altos weekly pendings data. Now at highest...
Inventory May Turn Negative YoY by Early April
Inventory has a shot of being negative year over year by the end of March or the first week of April if the seasonal increase doesn't happen soon. https://t.co/yYspHxEdvu
Sales May Beat Forecast Despite Slight YoY Decline
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 0.6% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-b1a My sense - based on limited data - is sales will be above the consensus forecast, but will likely be down slightly year-over-year.
Early 2026 Sales Lag 2025, March May Recover
The first two months of the year have started off with lower closed sales volume than 2025. The hope is for March 2026 to be a little higher in light of slightly more pendings lately. https://t.co/Ctj0EyVXqx
Homeowners Resist Affordable Housing, Celebrate Rising Rents
You are forgetting nobody wants their towns to get cheaper. They want their homes to appreciate and for poor people to be priced out of becoming their neighbors. The developers, landlords and homeowners in Austin are PISSED rents are dropping.
Florida Metros See Home Values Decline Across the Board
Every major metro area in Florida has experienced declining home values in the last year. Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, Lakeland, Naples. Now even Miami is getting in on the action. Demand and sales volume continue rest at the lowest level in nearly 15 years....
Renovate-to-Rent Crucial as Investors Outspend Homebuyers
Encouraged to see pro-housing voices pushing to keep build-to-rent. I'd also suggest pushing to keep "renovate-to-rent." Three things: 1) Freddie Mac wrote in 2022 that investors "heavily target under-market-value homes that need more repair than what most first-time homebuyers are willing to...
Wealth Clusters Around Corridors, Not Sectors
The “Corridor Gravity” Law Why 80% of Real Estate Wealth Is Created Within 2–3 km of One Road Most people buy property based on: • sector number • builder brand • brochure amenities But in real estate, the real economic unit is not the sector. It’s the...
Limited Supply Keeps Prices High, No 2008‑style Dip
So much talk about another 2008 price collapse, but that's very challenging to get with 2026 stats. I'm not sugarcoating. All I'm saying is very limited supply has kept prices higher. Not much of a dip over the past four...
Rockefeller Center Hits 98% Lease at Record Rents
The iconic Rockefeller Center. Ben Epstein and his team handle the leasing, and they’re crushing it. 6.5M square feet, 98% leased. Rents? The highest they’ve ever seen. Fun geeking out on the market - hard to imagine a more incredible leasing assignment anywhere. https://t.co/yBZqAs7D2v
Cities Must Signal Long-Term Investor Confidence, Not Just Regulations
Fact 1: On today's numbers, apartment buildings take 15-20 yrs to pay back the investment in building them. Fact 2: To justify that investment, investors need to expect the buildings to generate returns for decades thereafter. So, if your city wants private...
Proposed Bill Could Halt Rental Construction, Raise Rents
Are elected officials about to pass the "Rental Inflation bill?" The requirement to sell future Build-to-Rent homes to homeowners within 7 years will effectively stop the construction of rental homes, decreasing new supply and thus increasing rents. https://t.co/SEU7Kc03c3
Low Rates Trap Sellers, Stalling Housing Turnover
Symptom of the low mortgage rate golden handcuffs narrative that’s keeping housing market turnover depressed
Urban Stickiness Vanished; People and Capital Won’t Return
The stickiness that once anchored people and capital to great cities is gone. It is not coming back https://t.co/D0BFIOpVUy
Zillow Predicts Near‑flat Rent Growth, Easing Inflation Pressure
Zillow just updated their 2026-27 rental market forecast. They're projecting single-family rent growth at only +1.1% in 2026, and +0.5% in 2027. With multifamily rents dropping -0.2% and -1.5%. They also project CPI rent growth to fall to ~1.0% by early 2027, which...
Inventory Growth Slows, February Still Outpaces Season
This ResiClub table helps you see through the seasonal inventory shift noise The inventory growth slope has decelerated from last year However, based on the February figure—the most important print of the year—we’re pacing a tad above the normal seasonal pace https://t.co/6IrsSaR9mW
Home Prices Dip 1.38% YoY, Falling Since October
List prices are 1.38% below last year. Home prices have been negative since October and are moving lower, relative to last year. Here's two views https://t.co/xHl3d0HNvs
Bellevue New Apartments Skew Toward Studios, Not Families
Look at the distribution of units built in Bellevue, Washington. In buildings since 2010 with more than 20 units ... over 70% of new units are Studio or 1BRs, and less than 2% have 3+ bedrooms We don’t build apartments for...
High‑Income Job Losses Undermine Local Housing Outlook
High-income job declines don’t work well for the housing market. This is a trend (namely at local level) we’ve been hammering on the last few years as we maintain a weak outlook for housing in general. https://t.co/jN2DMafhy5 https://t.co/NhCzjO8knR
Add Bedrooms, Boost Rent per Sq Ft in Tight Markets
A game-plan that works in supply constrained markets: Identify older buildings with apartments that are too large relative to the number of beds and baths they have (for example a 1,000 sq ft one bed). During renovation, using permits, reconfigure the units...
Housing Inventory May Turn Negative Despite Low Rates
Kinda embarrassing for the #housing 2008 crowd, and, worse than 2008. At this pace, if rates stay low, inventory might show some negative week-to-week data. 🤯🤯🤯😳😱 What a bunch of scrubs 😁😉🥂 @housingwire @sarahteresa6 read the tracker reports and join...
Housing Inventory Growth Slows Sharply, Risks Negative Prints
The housing market shifted mid-June 2025. Inventory growth was running at 33% and now it's running at 6.91% with a risk of some negative week-to-week prints. https://t.co/VgpdKDUPpd
National Inventory Set to Turn Negative, Price Cuts Decline
The National Inventory is expected to turn negative at some point this year, and the percentage of price cuts is lower compared to last year. Whoever you're getting your housing info from, I would question them about this. https://t.co/AHHEytiMoR
Austin Hits Record Low Rent-to-Income Ratio
It's actually never been cheaper to rent in Austin, TX. The Rent/Income ratio across the metro has dropped to 18.3% - the lowest on record (going back at least 20 years). Landlords are aggressively cutting rents at a time when incomes in...
Price Parking, Reclaim Lots for Housing Development
"That's why we have these vacant lots, if you get rid of that (free parking) and find a median price for parking where it's kind of expensive you can then build buildings there and people will live there." - @bertkreischer ...
Potential Negative YoY Inventory by April if Seasonal Rise Delayed
We should be getting the national seasonal inventory increase soon, but if, for some reason, that doesn't happen, we will have negative year-over-year inventory data by the end of March or Early April Note: For the worse than 2008 crowd...