Pre‑Conflict 2026 Mortgage Locks Hovered
To give you an idea of what levels were rates locked in 2026 before the conflict started, a bunch of rate locks came in at 6.20%-6.35% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #housing #realestate #chartdaddy
Lennar Sees Modest Tariff Impact as Costs Fall
After initial have a concerned reaction to tariffs back in spring 2025, most giant public homebuilders walked back their tariff concerns last summer. That commentary shift reflected a combination of factors: some of the proposed tariffs didn’t ultimately go through,...
Lennar Prices Fell 13.6% After Incentive Adjustment
If you’re active on “Housing Twitter,” you’ll likely see charts circulating this coming week that show Lennar’s average selling price down roughly -23.8% from its 2022 peak. It’s worth noting, however, that the figure reported by Lennar is net of...
Institutional Pullback Threatens Builder Supply, Says Lennar
Lennar says pushing institutional homebuyers out of the housing market could cause big builders to 'build less supply' Lennar CEO Stuart Miller said on Friday that institutional investors are already pulling back further this year given the heightened policy pressure
Executive Orders Clash With
So we're signing executive orders to "improve housing affordability" when we already had the lowest mortgage rates in nearly FOUR YEARS. We were ever so close to that elusive magic number of 5.5% for a 30-year fixed, which gets home buyers...
More Studios Drive Down Metro Prices, Boost 3BR Affordability
This is also why unit typology in new construction matters If we build lots of Studio units in Neighborhood A does that “free up” larger units for families in THAT neighborhood? Maybe More likely, it lowers prices in the Metro and ...
Industrial Real Estate Thrives on Global Structural Shifts
Industrial real estate continues to be one of the most resilient sectors in commercial real estate — and the demand is being driven by structural shifts in the global economy. For investors and operators, understanding these macro drivers is critical when...
90s Housing Market Snapshot: Sacramento and Nationwide Trends
Lots of focus on the ‘90s lately. What was the housing market like back then? Here’s what was happening in Sacramento and many markets across the country.
Housing Prices Will Drop Without Income Growth
This is the big problem I see with U.S. housing. If incomes can't support prices, something has to give. While wealth transfers can offset this temporarily, most people won't have such a windfall. If incomes don't rise, prices will fall in...
National Chains Threaten Neighborhood Charm Through Collective Rent Choices
“Tragedy of the commons” in interesting neighborhoods: Each individual owner incentivized to rent to national chains, due to their higher credit-quality. But, once too many do, the neighborhood loses what made it interesting in the first place.
Five Years Renting Cost Him Higher Mortgage Rates
Rate were under 3% in 2021 and now over 6 What did 5 years of renting really get him
Japanese Builders Accelerate U.S. Homebuilder Acquisitions
WOW. ANOTHER ONE. Japanese builders are rapidly acquiring U.S. homebuilders—striking their third deal in a month This week, Japan-based Hajime Construction agreed to buy Utah-based Wright Homes My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/FgJwjNewbx
Mortgage Rates
Rate locks between 6.20% - 6.35% corrinadting with positive purchase application data and weekly pending sales all year long, so far, yes. At 6.41% today is the first day that pricing is above the September 17th, 2025 data point https://t.co/lqWqldYe3s
Waiting for a Crash Cost Buyers $400K
In 2010, homes in Vegas were $100K and people still said “I’m waiting for the crash.” Today they’re $500K…
2026 Mortgage Rates Show Record‑Low 42‑bp Spread
Since 2000, the average year has seen an 87 bps range between the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reading in the calendar year and the lowest reading So far in 2026, that range has been 42 bps Lowest this year: 5.99% Highest...
Condo Market Softens, Cancellations Persist Into 2026
Condos are softer than the detached market. Cancellations have continued into 2026. Nothing at all like all-time highs in 2007, but this submarket is notably softer than detached homes. https://t.co/3krxTga2qS
Institutional Buying Doesn't Hike Prices; Building New Homes Lowers Them
It's not actually that complicated: 1️⃣ There's no evidence that institutional purchases of existing single-family homes drives up prices. 2️⃣ Institutional financing, building, and ownership of new single-family homes expands the housing supply and drives down prices.
Ultra‑wealthy Exodus Leaves No Revenue, Boomers Get Breaks
There's not going to be a revenue base here after they drive ultra HNW to Florida and Texas and keep giving boomers property tax breaks.
Density Bonuses Outpace Inclusionary Zoning in Affordable Housing
It's a strange thing: density bonus laws have created orders of magnitude more affordable housing than inclusionary zoning laws, which evidence suggests may reduce overall housing production. Yet the latter remains more popular, I suspect because NIMBYs recognize its utility.
NAAIM Exposure Index Drop Signals Bullish Market
NAAIM Exposure Index down from 100% in mid-December to 67% in mid-March. Seems bullish to me! $SPX https://t.co/e0bywZknAH
Financing Rules and Lawsuits Have Halted U.S. Condo Construction
Over the past 20 years, America has basically stopped building condos. Owing to a mix of restrictive financing regulations and endless defect litigation, the most viable path to urban homeownership has largely disapprared. In my latest for @TheAtlantic, we explain...
War-Driven Rate Hike Adds $130/Month on $600k Mortgage
For a $600,000 home, a borrower will now have to pay $130 more per month than what they would have paid the day before the war started when rates were 5.99%
Manufactured‑housing REITs Already Outnumber Single‑Family Rentals
Prediction: We'll eventually see a wave of articles (followed by policymakers fretting over it) about "Wall Street" investing in manufactured housing. It'll be positioned as a "loophole" and/or consequence of the ban on single-family rentals. But it's not new at all. There...
Spring Inflection Turns Median Prices Negative
Here’s a look at median price change since last year. We hit an inflection point in the spring where the trend went negative. Of course, the median isn’t a perfect price metric, but other price indexes are telling the same...
Cut Rents, Not Vacancies, in a Slow Market
Unless you’re angling to sell or refinance your building in the short term: If the rental market is slow, better to lower your asking rents than to accept vacancy or fill your building with people who will dishonor their lease obligations.
Manhattan Apartment Supply Declines Two Years Straight
A sobering trend: #Manhattan apt inventory dropped every month for 2 years running. Building boom fails to stem tide of rising demand. 'Construction expanding but it's been uneven by boro' #NYC #realestate #CRE #multifamily #condo #mortgage https://t.co/a0FkHCJC3x
Government Policies, Not Investors, Drive Unaffordable Starter Homes
While Congress wrongly attacks institutional housing investors, my latest @opinion column explores several of the govt policies that actually increase US home prices and make building a "starter home" impossible today: /1
Wealth Comes From Holding, Not Just Buying Better
The “Holding Power” Rule Why In Gurgaon, The Rich Don’t Always Buy Better — They Hold Longer Most people think wealth in real estate comes from: • better location • better builder • better timing But NCR history shows something else. The biggest fortunes were not made...
BTR May Be History’s Worst Low‑Density Rebrand
Will “build-to-rent” (BTR) go down in history as the worst rebranding of low-density apartment development?
BTR Ban Strips Safety Net, Halting Risky Land Development
Over the past 2 years, we’ve owned and developed 10,000 housing lots in “for-sale” housing. Everyone is thinking about it like building a single house, but the typical development is 20-50 acres for a community of hundreds of new homes. The biggest...
Lennar's Margins Hit 2009 Low Amid Aggressive Incentives
Lennar—America's second largest homebuilder—gross margins fall to the lowest levels since 2009 Among giant public homebuilders, Lennar has been the most aggressive in using affordability adjustments/incentives to maintain volumes/take market share @ResidentialClub research
U.S. Housing Bubble Frozen, Equity at Risk
The U.S. housing market isn’t slowing down, it’s frozen. Homes are massively overpriced, and when prices finally fall, millions of homeowners could lose their equity and banks will be stuck with bad mortgages. This is exactly what happens when decades...
30‑Year Mortgage Rates Likely Stay Below 7%
Questions to ask: - How high can the 30-year fixed go again? Is 6.5% a reasonable guess? Is 7% out of the question? I think 7% is unlikely as we'd be getting into recession talk and bond yields would likely...
Feb 2026 SAC:
How did homes sell compared to their original list price? Here's a way to show that. Anything above the 0% line went above, and anything below went below. FEB 2026 SAC REGION Above: 30.7% Below: 56.0% At Original List Price: 13.3% Any thoughts?
Mortgage Payments Up $1,300 Monthly Since 2021
A $500K mortgage was $1,900/month in 2021. A $500K mortgage is now $3,200/month. $1,000+ more each month for the same home.
Homebuyer Demand Index Slightly Up, Still Near Historic Lows
Reventure's homebuyer demand index inched up this week to a 9/100. This index tracks pending sales, mortgage apps, internet searches for real estate, and buyer sentiment. A "normal" reading on the index is 50, a level which we saw before the pandemic. Note...
Young Adult Homeownership Halved, Dream Becomes Elusive
She's not wrong. One reason "we're in trouble" is young adult access to the American Dream is so diminished--as evidenced, for instance, by this decline in home ownership.👇🏽 ✔️ 1980: 59% of young adults owned a home ✔️Now: 37% of young adults...
Build-to-Rent Criticism Stems From Misunderstanding Its Purpose
A lot of the criticism about build-to-rent on this app is grounded in ignorance about what BTR is, who builds it, who funds it, who lives in it, and why it's appealing to the small share of families who choose...
Housing Market Set to Grow if Rates Stay Steady
#Housing market is poised for growth this year if Iran conflict doesn't raise rates, says HousingWire Mohtashami https://t.co/ZBWUvaAFKo
Housing Starts Beat Forecast, Yet Momentum Questioned
Housing starts surprised to the upside in the latest report, rising to a 1.487 million SAAR and coming in above consensus expectations. On the surface, the headline suggests renewed momentum in residential construction. However... https://t.co/1r862BDOdv
Home Inventory Slumps to 1.29M, Far Below Historic Levels
After this week's existing home sales report. Let's do an inventory checkup, today we stand at 1,290,000. Historically, it's been between 2-2.5 million; it was 4,000,000 in 2007. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
Flat Housing Inventory Persists Unless Rates Spike Dramatically
It's going to be a boring year for housing inventory, unless rates spike up big time However, now that we are in 2026 You can see the difference in the inventory channel When comparing sales crashing from 2005 to 2008, vs sales...
Self‑storage Rentals Surge 46% in Early March
The self storage rental market could finally be taking steps in the right direction. First 10 days of March last year: 206 rentals First 10 this year: 301 rentals
Opponents Haven't Urged Fannie/Freddie to Ease Credit Standards
Have any of the people who oppose investors owning “build to rent” housing called on Fannie/Freddie to liberalize their lending standards to lower FICO buyers?
500K ADU Raises Questions on Property Value Impact
Working on a property with a $500,000 accessory dwelling added two years ago. It’ll be interesting to see how much this adds to value. That’s a big price tag for an ADU.
Single-Family Rentals Decline, Challenging Neoliberal Housing Narrative
The problem with this view is that the number of single-family rental homes in the U.S. has been in decline for years, as research from Harvard, John Burns and Redfin have all shown.
Existing Home Sales Lag, Yet Show 4% Post‑Storm Gain
NAR's existing home sales came out for February and it doesn't yet reflect what we're seeing in the weekly pending sales that we track. NAR is trying to publish this data earlier to keep up, but it still has...
Mortgage Rates Near 2026 Highs as Bond Yields Climb
Bond yields are back near their highest levels of 2026. Mortgage rates are also close to their 2026-highs, with MND putting the 30-year fixed at 6.19% today, just 2 bps below its peak thus far this year. There's a decent chance mortgage...
Renting $1.2M Home for $4k Shows Overvaluation
It's even worse than this guy makes it seem. If someone rents out their "$1.2M" home for $4k/month, that's the all-in cost (property tax, insurance, maintenance, etc.) So, the mortgage would have to be even LESS than $4k/month, valuing the home even...
New County Data Shows Minor Variations Across Eleven Regions
Fresh stats. Some differences, but nothing too crazy. Eleven other counties on my blog today. What stands out to you? https://t.co/6HKzLYqDvO