Florida Housing Downturn Softens After Post‑pandemic Boom
The intensity of Florida's post-pandemic housing boom correction is easing Softness—and even outright weakness—remains across parts of Florida’s housing market. However, the intensity of the downturn in Florida has eased over the past 6 months
U.S. Housing Market Flips: Record Seller Surplus
🚨 The U.S. housing market just flipped. There are now 630K more sellers than buyers, which is the largest gap on record.
Rising Oil, Falling Stocks Pressure New‑home Sales
Recent drop in U.S. new home sales and abundant inventory could weigh on new construction ahead. Elevated oil and falling stock prices are likely to weigh on home sales. https://t.co/XpvBbc9mwe
Trump's Brand Expands Across GCC Amid Iran Tensions
With the Iran conflict now in its 4th week, an important angle worth noting: President Trump’s family business (Trump Organization) has substantial licensing deals across the GCC - Trump Towers, hotels & golf resorts in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar & Oman,...
War‑Driven Dollar Spike Likely Boosts Gurgaon Real Estate
War, Dollar @ 93–94, Gulf Risk — Will NRI Money Rotate to India and Push Gurgaon Real Estate? This is not fear talk. This is capital-flow math. Right now rupee has touched ~93–94 per USD during the Middle-East war volatility, near record lows....
Florida's Housing Boom Peaks, Then Corrects Dramatically
What's happening across Florida housing markets, as told by 10 charts Florida experienced one of the most intense Pandemic Housing Booms—and subsequent corrections. Here’s where things stand now. My latest ResiClub PRO report https://t.co/Nesqr0w1OL
Office Construction Hits 2011 Lows; B‑space Demand Uncertain
We’re currently seeing the lowest level of office construction since 2011. ▫️A+ is full ▫️A is almost full What happens to B space is the question? Some B+ will be competitive in good locations and with renovations. Tear Downs and Conversions are up. In...
Housing Market Unchanged Despite War, Higher Rates
No noticeable impact from the war/higher mortgage rates in the weekly housing data yet: https://t.co/f4wx5tgXQn
Midwest Real Estate Booms as Climate Haven Emerges
Is the Great Lakes region the ultimate Climate Haven? 🌎🌊🔥 With over $15T in real estate at risk from floods & fires, I explore why the Midwest is seeing a pricing boom. Low risk, low cost, high quality of...
Zoning Flexibility Key for Commercial‑to‑residential Conversions
A necessary, if not sufficient, condition for commercial to residential conversions is to provide maximum zoning flexibility, e.g. the exemptions on parking mandates provided for by AB 2097. I provide comment: https://t.co/O3dF26SHCm
Co
Renters relocating from California prefer Texas and Nevada. Renters relocating from New York prefer Florida and New Jersey. Interesting data from Apartment List. https://t.co/qJvXYBSwxJ
Corporate Housing Investment Ends as Cap Rates Match Bonds
The era of corporate investment in the U.S. Housing Market is ending - potentially forever. And not just because of the investor bans. But because of the relationship of interest rates to Cap Rates, otherwise known as investor returns. From 2008-2022,...
Housing Demand Now Driven by Prices, Not Rates
Mortgage rates have spiked in the last 3 weeks. But it won't matter for the housing market. Mortgage rates stopped being the driver of demand 3-4 years ago. Whether mortgage rates are 6.5%, or 6.0%, makes no categorical difference on demand right now. The...
Rates to Exceed 7% with Worsening Spreads
2023-2025 rates would already be over 7% with the worse levels of spreads each year. https://t.co/2c2qtO9Hlx
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% to Pandemic Lows
From December to January, US new home sales DROPPED by a STUNNING 17.6%. Sales were at their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. AMERICAN HOUSING MARKET = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/AMSqv9ZMsT
Household Real Estate Value Drops to $47.9 T
"The market value of household real estate assets fell for the second consecutive quarter to $47.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025" -NAHB
Factory‑Built Homes Could Reverse Rising Homebuyer Age
In 2010, the median U.S. homebuyer was 39. Today, it’s 59. Home prices have doubled in a decade, and construction productivity has fallen. Sweden builds 45% of single-family homes in factories, year-round, cutting costs and build time. If we built...
Miami's Rent Growth Turns Negative Amid Mass Exodus
Large market with the worst single-family rent growth in the U.S. entering 2026? Miami Wouldn't have guessed that from the headlines about Zuckerberg and Palantir. While billionaires are moving in, local residents are moving out. Rents are up 50% in Miami from...
Housing Market Set to Grow If Iran Tensions Spare Rates
Housing market is poised for growth this year if Iran conflict doesn't raise rates, says HousingWire Mohtashami https://t.co/ZBWUvaA7UQ
More Rental Units Drag Single-Family Rent Growth to Decade Low
This additional rental supply is putting downward pressure on single-family rents. One reason why SFR rent growth is at 10-year low. https://t.co/wh9Qyhz6TK
Public Split on Whether Mortgage Rates Are Rising
If you look at this chart of mortgage rates, do you say rates are: Up, Flat, or Down? (poll follows below) https://t.co/f44iFahBSk
Struggling Sellers Turn to Renting, Listings Surge
Homeowners who are having trouble selling their homes are becoming landlords at a near record pace About 2.2% of rental listings on Zillow in November had previously been listed for sale—highest level since late 2022 when mortgage rates surged...
New Home Sales Yet to Slip Below 2022 Lows
If new homes can fall below the 2022 lows in sales for at least 5-7 months, that would do it, but their purchase application data hasn't shown that yet. https://t.co/Jv2eyLip1u
Fannie, Freddie Flood Market with Big MBS Bids
A bit of weekend announcement aimed at stabilising soaring mortgage rates FANNIE, FREDDIE PLACE LARGE BIDS FOR MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES
Spreads Peaked 2023, Normalize by 2026 After 2022 Rise
2023 had the peak spreads of the cycle at 3.11%. Since then, it has gradually improved each year. By 2026, spreads approached normal levels again. February 2022 is when the spreads started to worsen. https://t.co/hK3qQPLtIs
NYC Two
New York City builds smaller 2BR apartments Here's the distribution of 2BR sizes in NYC vs Seattle & Austin NYC average is 5% smaller than Seattle & 14% smaller than Seattle ... and more than 2/3 of NYC 2BRs are smaller than...
Existing Home Sales Near Record Lows, Sensitive to 7% Rates
We have to be mindful that existing home sales, unlike new home sales, are still working from all-time lows; the bar is very low for growth. Sales haven't collapsed since the end of 2022, no matter where rates went, but...
Florida Inventory Drop Easier; Comps Soften Through Mid‑June
Also, be mindful that the inventory decline in Florida YoY was working from an easier bar to do so. Just like the national data, the YoY comps get easier up until mid-June. https://t.co/z4GnIpxb5B
Home Prices Poised to Dip Below 2022 Levels by Summer
Home prices sure look like they could be back under 2022 levels by late summer. *This is list prices, which is subject to a shift in the mix of homes available, but it a direct measure of how much homes cost,...
Current Rates Far Below Worst‑case Mortgage Spread Scenarios
If we had the worst levels of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.67% today, not 6.53% If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.29% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025,...
Weekly Demand up YoY Even as Rates Fall
As crazy as this sounds, the weekly demand with our tracker data is still positive YoY, just remember that rates are still lower YoY; more on this with our weekend tracker. 🫡
Housing Demand Hinges on Prices, Not Mortgage Rates
The thing everyone gets wrong in the housing market is they think it's about mortgage rates. When it's actually about prices. Buyer demand is at record lows because prices (inflation-adjusted) are at record highs. No one wants to buy a house they know...
Only One US Home Price Crash Despite Many Recessions
We have experienced many recessions since WWII, but only one nationwide home price crash and foreclosure crisis, household debt leverage ratio was much higher back then. https://t.co/VjgmPgQgRv
Rent Prices Plunge Nationwide, Boosting Tenants and Buyers
Rental market deflation is spreading across the U.S. Austin is down 22% from peak. Fort Myers is down 19% Denver is -13% Atlanta is -11% Nashville is -11% Dallas is -11% Landlords are doing big rent cuts across the Sun Belt and West. In some cases, they're...
Per‑unit Housing Costs Mislead without Unit Mix Context
This is an example of why I dislike "per unit" metrics in housing discourse & policy $827K/per unit sounds really really bad ... and it's not GOOD BUT ... when you take unit mix, and size, into account it gets a little...
Spring Housing Outlook Crumbles as Rates Surge Above 6%
In less than a month, hope for a decent spring selling season has all but vanished in housing as oil spikes, rates jump, and inflation expectations reset higher. Can’t even get an adjustable-rate mortgage below 6% anymore. https://t.co/YOV544jjTl
Spring Housing Surge Meets Rising Mortgage Rates
The spring #housing market is on, but mortgage rates just shot higher. Here's what to know. https://t.co/RH3r7ufpUH @realtordotcom @cotality @mortgagenewsmnd @jonathanmiller #realestate #realestateinvesting @SelmaHepp
Most Major Metro Home Prices Cooling; New Orleans Defies Trend
47 of the nation's 50 largest metro area housing markets have a weaker year-over-year home price shift this early spring than a year ago The biggest exception is New Orleans—which is firming up after passing through a 'material' correction Analysis via @ResidentialClub...
Mortgage Rates Jump Above 6.5%, More Hikes Ahead
A 6.50%+ 30-year fixed mortgage rate is coming today. Crazy we had sub-6% rates less than a month ago. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
Rising Transport and Petroleum Costs Squeeze Homebuilder Margins
Falling construction costs were a rare positive for homebuilders in 2025. That’s quickly shifting as transport costs jump, as will build costs since many construction products are petroleum based. Hard for homebuilders to push new cost increases through, so more...
Slower Inventory, Strong Demand Thanks to Low Mortgage Spreads
Inventory growth has been much slower this year vs last; the housing demand curve has been positive this year because rates are still lower YoY. If mortgage spreads didn't improve rates would have already been above 7% already https://t.co/J8onCbn0WP
ARMs Offer $150 Monthly Savings, Biggest Discount Since 2022
"The typical homebuyer would save $150 per month taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage instead of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. That’s a 5.8% discount, the biggest ARM users have had since June 2022 in both dollar and percentage terms." -Redfin
February Home Sales Slowest Since 2016, 66-Day Average
"U.S. homebuyers are taking their time as we head into spring, which is usually the busy season for the housing market. The typical home that went under contract in February spent 66 days on the market. That’s the slowest February...
New Home Prices Fall, Inventory Peaks Since 2009
Prices of New Single-Family Homes Drop Further, Inventory of Completed New Homes for Sale Highest since 2009. Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come https://t.co/xfMYbwdtVK https://t.co/ImauhfwDWA
ADU Preemption Law Drives 100,000 New Homes.
California's ADU preemption law—of the sort Michigan is considering this year—has directly led to the construction of over 100,000 housing units that would have been illegal prior to 2017. https://t.co/dtgk8BfnNT
U.S. Home Prices Edge Up Slightly, Still 43% Above 2020
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, rose +0.1% month-over-month between January 2026 and February 2026. Year-over-year: +0.4% Since the 2022 peak: +1.6% Since March 2020: +43.2% Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/LC4jle3nVp
Sacramento Home Prices Down About 2% Year‑over‑year.
Let's look to multiple price metrics to try to understand the market. Here are various sources I watch every month. I think we can generally say prices are down about 2% from one year ago in the Sacramento region. Look...
January Home Sales Slip; Watch Under‑Construction Trend
New home sales and prices stumble in January. But my eyes are on that Under Construction line... https://t.co/ba6EOBkX36
Builder Surplus Signals Coming Resale Slowdown, Owners Cling
One of the more interesting things in the housing market right now is the divergence between Builders and existing owners. Builders are now near 9 months of supply (heavy correction / near crash level) But existing owners are at only 4...
Assuming 100% Development Underestimates Needed Zoning by 5x
This assumes that the probability of development of zoned capacity is 100%. That's unrealistic. Let's math it out: DC needs 120,000 units by 2050. Assume a high p(dev) of 5% every 5 years. DC would need to zone for 622,100...