Abysmal Hiring Rate Signals Housing Market Trouble
In other depressing news for the housing market, the hiring rate is abysmal. The hiring rate continues to be my key macro indicator for whether the housing market can recover this year. February looks bad. https://t.co/rdRsiAwAaR
Buyers Stay Out Until Affordability Drops Below 30%
When will homebuyers return to the U.S. Housing Market? When affordability hits the yellow line. Currently, the Mortgage Payment/Income Ratio is 36.5%, near the highest level on record, and comparable to the 2006 housing bubble. The long-term average is 30%, and it...
Freddie Mac Index Slides; Punta Gorda, Austin Prices Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in February; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 23% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased-8d1
Regional Banks Face $1.5T Real‑estate Maturity Crunch
CRE office delinquency: 12.34%. All-time high. Multifamily maturities in 2026: $162.1 billion. A 56% jump from last year. Total maturity wall: $1.5 trillion. Who holds the most concentrated exposure? Regional banks. The ones without the size or diversification to absorb a wave of...
Record Office Delinquency Signals Imminent Real Estate Debt Crisis
CRE office delinquency: 12.34%. All-time high. $162B in multifamily maturities in 2026 alone. Up 56% YoY. $1.5T maturity wall. Rising rates. Regional banks holding the bag. The next shoe isn't dropping. It's already laced up. --- https://t.co/GPSg1nlO6H
Adjust Prices Now: Buyers Sensitive to Cost Amid Rate Hikes
Buyers have lost purchasing power in recent weeks with higher rates, so adjust your price if needed. Sellers, this is so important to recognize. Buyers are hyper-sensitive about price, location, and condition, but they’re ready to act when the price...
Home Price Growth Stalls; Atlanta Joins Declining Markets
Home prices are only up 0.9% vs last year at this time. Essentially all markets have declining growth. 10 markets are now negative vs. Jan 2025. Atlanta is new to the list. Weakness on the West Coast in the period....
Just $70K Extra Can Net a $1M Property
Real estate is valued at a 15x multiple Only need to increase income $70k on one property to make a million bucks Not so hard when you think about it that way
NYC Office-to-Residential Conversions Drive Sky‑high Rents
Prepare to pay up in #NYC for apts converted from offices: Studios+1bdrs w/cost $3,500-5,500/mo, Larger or great spots well past $6,000. #Conversions cost a fortune: reconfiguring floorplates designed for cubicles, putting in plumbing. #multifamily #CRE https://t.co/norND10307
Strip Mall Deals: Pay Full Price, End Up Flat
Was pitched a strip mall deal this morning. It’s around a 4% cap based on today’s income. The pitch: If I can get back a space where’s there’s a non-paying restaurant tenant, spend a year releasing it, pay TI and leasing commissions, then...
Home Prices Slow, Sellers Outnumber Buyers, Prices Set to Drop
US home prices increased 0.9% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
Regional Banks Face Looming CRE Loss Wave
$1.5 trillion in CRE loans mature through 2026-2027. Office delinquency: 12.34%. All-time high. "Extend and pretend" is over. Banks are shifting to "extend and resolve." Resolve means someone takes the loss. That someone is regional banks — the ones with the highest CRE...
Most Major US Metro Home Prices Still Falling
75% of the largest U.S. metro areas saw real home price declines over the past year. Rates have normalized, but prices haven't...yet. My latest on whether U.S. housing is starting to crash: https://t.co/HsPGtyscV6
UK Mortgage Approvals Climbed Before War‑driven Rate Spike
UK mortgage approvals rose before the war triggered a rates surge https://t.co/sRgK0HpypM via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/o5w32DYwZ5
Cardone Capital Launches Bitcoin‑backed Real Estate Fund
JUST IN: Cardone Capital, run by Grant Cardone, is accepting Bitcoin and launching Fund 29 to merge real estate with BTC exposure, delivering tax benefits and cash flow for investors.
Only One Nationwide Home Price Crash in 84 Years
There have been many economic cycles, recessions, and rising mortgage rates since 1942. In 84 years, there has only been one national home price crash period. https://t.co/AjoH2agyyy
Lodging Delinquencies Surge, Driving Overall CMBS Rise
Where’s the next CRE pain point as I warned last year? @TreppWire CMBS Delinquency Rate increased 41 bps to 7.55% in March, reversing Feb’s decline. Lodging posted largest increase, jumping 137 bps to 7.31%, the first time it’s been >7% since...
Mortgage Intent Index Slides, Yet Pending Sales Remain Positive
The Xactus Mortgage Intent Index dipped this week. Three down weeks in a row and below last year now. Xactus is counting credit pulls, so it includes refis. I've found this data to correlate well with the pending sales rate, though...
Hot Asset Hype Triggers Overbuilding, Warns Unsophisticated Investors
Exhibit A on why uninformed / unsophisticated investors should stay from investing in industrial real estate. A few years ago I attended a conference where there was a break out panel on cold storage. Everyone on the panel was extremely bullish on...
Sacramento $400‑500K Sales Up 8%, Buyers Benefit
Seeing more sales between $400-500K in the Sacramento region. This is a part of the market that's experiencing volume growth from last year. This speaks to prices dipping and more sales happening in this range (8% more in 2026 so...
Rising Rates Erase Affordability Gains, Prices May Dip
Mortgage rates hit the upper 6s this week - up 65 bps in a month. The affordability gains of early 2026 are gone. Here's what the data shows: ➡️85,000 pending sales this week, down for the week. Still 1.5% above last...
Rising Mortgage Rates Signal Upcoming Home Price Decline
With each passing day, the mortgage rate lock-in effect fades. Nearly 22% of mortgage holders now have a rate above 6%. Which is more than the share with a rate below 3%. Ultra-low-rate owners are slowly getting replaced with 6%+ owners. Meaning...
Refinance Cash‑flowing Properties for Tax‑free Deal Funding
I NEVER sell a property that cash flows. The move is to refinance. Get an appraisal on the new value. Take a loan at 80% of that number. Pay off the old debt. Keep the difference. That cash is tax-free. You can use it...
Bottom‑tier Homes See Offers; Overpriced Get None
More competitive at the bottom. Not a shocker. But expect zero offers if overpriced. Here are the number of offers in pending contracts over the past two weeks. Let’s keep watching demand closely since mortgage rates have spiked lately. https://t.co/nP090hRRtA
Florida Rents Plunge 25%, Renters Regain Leverage
Rental market deflation is spreading across Florida. In a metro like Cape Coral, apartment rents have been cut 25%. From a high of $1,695/month in 2022 peak down to $1,272/month. That's almost back to pre-pandemic norms (within 12%), and a signal that renters...
Provincial and Federal Support Cuts Municipal Development Fees
Today We Will Have The Announcement Of The Provincial & Federal Governments Supporting The Reduction Of Municipal Development Fees Let's endorse this Everything that reduces Taxes is an unqualified GOOD THING Because Canadians are over taxed And Development Fees went NUTS
REPE Funds Force Cap Rate Compression for Rapid Gains
How “The Game” works in Institutional Real Estate Private Equity A lot of people know that when cap rates go down RE investors make a lot of money. Most investors rely on a lucky market to do it But what if you...
Buy by Price per Foot, Sell by Income
We bought a 6% Cap building for $1.95M and sold it for $5.5M. Lesson: Buy based on price per foot, sell based on income. https://t.co/cMiaf6dKzV
Mortgage Rates Rebound From Historic Lows to 6.38%
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.38% (highest since Sep 2025) https://t.co/EZVocXbneE
CRE Success Requires Value Creation, Not Passive Holding
I don’t believe in holding commercial real estate long-term. Doing so means you are relying on two things to happen in order to get appreciation: Interest rates going down, or rents going up I don’t have control of either. “Buy and hold” made...
Tampa Bay Vacancy Hits 8.7%, Sparking Vertical Growth
What's going on in the Tampa Bay area? Apartment vacancies just spiked to 8.7%. Haven't seen anything like this in 10+ years. They're going vertical. https://t.co/EXZxZsIT13
2026 Demands Higher Caps—Don’t Wait for Naive Buyers
Dear sellers stuck in the past: A property we’re about to list with a broker would’ve sold at a 4.75% cap in 2021. It will be listed at a 6.25% cap. Why are we selling at a 24% discount to 2021? Because it’s...
Speed Trumps Higher Margins in Home Building
These firms are primarily solving for speed of construction and sales and maximal return on each equity dollar. A 20% margin home they can build and sell in 3 months is BETTER than a 40% margin in 6 months 1.2^4 =2.0736x 1.4^2...
Florida Inventory Drops; National Growth Slows to 5.7%
Did you know Florida's inventory is down year over year? Also, the growth rate of inventory nationally decreased from 33% to 5.69%. With a HousingWire subscription, you can access local, state, city, and ZIP code data with multiple data points....
ICE Purchases Warehouses to House Detainees
ICE is buying up warehouses … for people. Great article in the Wall Street Journal featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/sIvP3Dpgd7
Builders Will Match Demand When Buyers Pay Enough
If people were generally willing to pay this … I’m confident Lennar and DR Horton would build it that way Those firms are **dialed in** on costs and demand
Florida Inventory Drop Reflects Elevated Base, Not 2008 Crisis
Be mindful that the inventory decline we are seeing in Florida was working from an elevated level, and since it's not 2008 or worse than 2008, the decline needs context on a year-over-year basis. Try not to overthink this one,...
Seek Low‑Competition Markets for Mispricing‑Driven Returns
People go about choosing a market all wrong. RE investors make money on mispricings Less competition means less price discovery which means more mispricings which makes it easier to generate outsized returns So your main criteria for a market should be "place...
Texas Triangle Dominates U.S. Population Growth Rankings
Long the Texas Triangle. ✅ 4 of the Top 10 US MSA's with the most population growth are located in Texas and 5 of the Top 10 counties. ✅ 3 of the Top 10 counties are in the Houston MSA
Pasadena Seeks Exemption From Transit‑friendly SB 79 Amid Rising Rents
Even as rents rise, Pasadena is trying to get carved out from SB 79, a bill that would make it easier to build apartments near transit. https://t.co/8Ku8qFkpZW
2012: Rare Generational Home‑Buying Opportunity via Peak Affordability
... and 2012 was a generational chance to buy a home... US Housing Affordability Index hit an all-time high then.. (moderate prices, low mortgage rates, recovering wages) @yardeni @realtors actually.. another @clementsmoney piece from me about that... https://t.co/PMNPDGiYEc https://t.co/zwLHFnQpRR
AI-Driven Lettings Roll‑up Scales with $93M Fundraise
. @DanLifshits, co-founder of Dwelly, explains how he and his partners are building an AI-enabled roll-up in the UK lettings market by acquiring independent agencies and modernizing them with software. After completing 9 acquisitions in just 24 months, Dwelly recently announced...
Two‑Thirds of Top 300 Metro Markets See Price Gains
Among the nation's 300's largest metro area housing markets... LEFT: The 99 markets with falling year-over-year home prices RIGHT: The 201 markets with rising year-over-year home prices Maps via @ResidentialClub
Housing Market in Bubble: Avoid Buying Now
I had such a great conversation with @themarketsniper on a lot of topics. He says: don't buy a property right now. We're in one big bubble. Listen to his explanation here: https://t.co/beqsm622Dc
Tampa Records First Net Outflow in 40 Years
Tampa, FL just hit its lowest migration level on record. A net 1,539 people left Tampa's metro area in 2025 - the first decline ever recorded going back four decades. Worse yet - birth rates are plummeting, and the area now...
Developer Incentives Drive Unwise Construction, Fueled by Investor Money
What ~everyone in this debate misses: Institutional developers, who build most new supply (at least in large metros), aren't using their own $$. They are using investor $$. And the terms of the deals give them large developer fees, which are generally...
Pending Home Sales Remain Positive Year‑Over‑Year
Housing data is still postive year over year with our weekly pending sales data; if there were no war, it would have easily grown in 2026. In any case, more on this with the weekend tracker. 🫡
Housing Shortage: Affordable, Desired Homes Missing in Prime Locations
I too have studied "housing square footage per capita" very deeply. Except rather than looking at it from the macro level, I approach it from the bottom of ... aka floorplans. And I looked at it from the multifamily lens,...
Lock‑in Effect Keeps Sub‑3% Mortgages Alive, ARMs Plummet
Update on the “Lock-in Effect” in the Housing Market: Below-3% & 4% Mortgages Fade Very Slowly. Share of ARMs originations fell further and is at historic lows: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database https://t.co/ZUvlUdW3RE https://t.co/bqPa12CUrs
San Rafael Shifts From 30-Year Housing Freeze to Rapid Build
San Rafael, a city that hasn't permitted 1,600 homes over the past 30 years combined, is on gearing up to build ~1,600 homes in the next two or three years alone. https://t.co/XNcGIGM2zZ