National Housing Inventory Growth Plummets From 33% to 4.7%
National Housing Inventory growth has slowed from the peak of 33% YoY last year to now, just 4.67% However, be mindful that the year-over-year comps are a big variable here. Just like it is with Florida's negative YoY inventory data https://t.co/GfWAVoVLHN
Condo Prices Falling, Buyers Struggle to Pay Developers
most see bubbles only in the rear view mirror... Drop in condo prices leave buyers struggling to pay developers https://t.co/GvcQJqp8TJ
Better Mortgage Spreads Keep Rates a Full Percent Lower
If we had the worst mortgage spread levels in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.45% today, not 6.45%. If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.07% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates...
Smart Investors Follow Capital, Not Price
Gurgaon real estate doesn’t move randomly. It moves in cycles of capital. Look closely: • When price rises → smart capital reduces exposure • When price corrects → smart capital accumulates • When liquidity peaks → retail dominates This pattern has repeated across cycles: 2000 → accumulation 2006...
Top Developers' Sales Drop 23%, Existing Market Revives
Caixin: "Sales by China’s top 100 real estate developers plunged roughly 23% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The prolonged slump in new home sales contrasts with a nascent rebound in the existing home market of major cities like...
Affordable Housing Requires Massive Metro-Driven Greenfield Development
There is no City that has achieved "affordable" housing (by any definition) without the metro building an enormous amount of greenfield development
FIRE Firms Dominate Preleases as Office Construction Cools
A Cooling Cycle: Office Construction Declines in Major U.S. Cities As of the start of 2026, 14 of the country's leading office markets had more than 17.5M SF actively under construction or renovation, with 42.5% of the space preleased. Overall, 30%...
Oak Park, Sacramento Home Values Soar Over Time
The story of value over time in the Oak Park neighborhood in Sacramento. Something on my desk today. Thought I'd share. https://t.co/u432dCM38O
50‑Year‑Old 9 West 57th Commands Record
50+ yrs after it w/built, #9West57th still rakin' it in. Some int'l family firm, whose name w/bc known soon enough, pays record $327/sf to look down on #CentralPark. 'The price speaks for itself' #realestate #CRE #NYC #Soloviev #CBRE #mortgage ...
NY Real Estate Rebounds as Talent Flows From Florida
The “@ZohranKMamdani effect”? Real estate prices back to pre-pandemic highs, office vacancies falling, and young talent still moving from Florida to New York.
Mortgage Defaults Return to Pre‑pandemic Levels, Boosting Inventory
Mortgage defaults in the U.S. are now back to pre-pandemic levels. In Q4 2025, 4.3% of mortgage holders were in default, a level slightly higher than 2019 figures. This return to normalcy in mortgage defaults is actually good news, as it means...
Target 150bp Yield Spread Over Market Cap
How private equity firms analyze deals: Most important metrics: 1. Stabilized cap rate (yield): Since we focus on value add, the entry cap doesn’t matter much, as long as we can service our debt The stabilized yield matters because it shows the intrinsic...
Builders’ Rate Cuts Mask Deeper Housing Supply Misalignment
If it weren't the builders paying down rates, housing permits would be worse today. We will never build housing the way people want because we aren't a supply-first economy; the demand curve needs to align with it, and rental vacancies...
Dallas Rents Dip, Homes Stay Affordable—Perfect Buyer Window
I toured some Dallas buildings recently. Was *shocking* how nice of an apartment you can get for $1200-1300. Combine that with the fact that you can still buy a house in the suburbs for $400k, and you can see why so...
Sacramento 2026 Home Sales Slightly Edge 2025
Closed home sales volume in 2026 is just ahead of 2025 in the Sacramento region so far. Not by much, but any growth feels like a win. I'll have visuals out next week to break down the trend.
Housing Market Divides: West Surplus, Midwest Shortage
The housing market has split into two. In South and West states, the housing shortage is over. (inventory up to 741k listings as of March 2026, above 2019 levels). Prices are dropping and buyers have leverage in TX, FL, GA,...
Past Low LTVs Preceded Credit Boom; Today’s Opposite
Loan-to-value data was low back then. In 2006, only 4% of homes were underwater, but we experienced a massive credit leverage boom, with down payment data dropping to 21st lows in 2008 after credit broke in 2005. It's the complete...
Five Winning Real Estate Strategies for Today's Market
Part 1: Top 5 Real Estate Investing Strategies for Today’s Market Follow @chasecalhoun.realestate for more on build-to-rent and real estate investing. #realestate #investmentproperty #buildtorent
Sacramento March Sales up $400‑500K Year‑over‑year
It's still early to pull sales for March, but here's what it looks like so far when we compare this year to last year in the Sacramento region. It's positive to see more growth between $400-500K. I'll update this visual...
Investors Shun BTR Projects Due to Seven‑year Resale Limit
More on the collapse of BTR construction: "Those investors are not investing right now because no one is going to invest in something that they have to sell in seven years… We’ve already stopped a lot of housing at a time...
Homebuilder Stocks Falter, Signaling Economic Weakness
$XHB Daily. Homebuilder (& home construction in $ITB ETF) stocks remain weak, rejected at 20-day m.a. today (orange line). Long-term looking like major tops, too. Poor sign for economy/consumer https://t.co/bZnRRpRU33
Master DSCR, LTV, Debt Yield: Buyer vs Lender Views
There are 3 main debt metrics in real estate: 1. Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) 2. Loan to Value (LTV) 3. Debt Yield Here’s how to view each from both a buyer’s perspective & a lender’s perspective: 1. DSCR Definition: The DSCR is the...
California March Home Sales Near Decade High, San Jose Leads
Homes for Sale in California Rose to the 2nd Highest for March in at Least a Decade as Demand Withered: The Biggest Markets. In the San Jose metro (Silicon Valley), active listings hit at least a 10-year record for March. But...
Sellers Return: New Listings Up 9% in March
Sellers have been coming back to the market this year after stepping back last year. New listings in 2026 are slightly higher than one year ago, and that’s thanks to a stronger March that had almost 9% more new listings....
No Missed Deals; Market Prices Too High to Buy
There hasn’t been a deal we’ve passed on this year where the broker believed we were making a mistake by not pursuing. With rare exception, it’s very much an “I wouldn’t buy it at this price either” kind of market.
From 23% Underwater to Record Home Equity Gains
In 2010 we had over 23% of the homes underwater; today, we have massive home equity @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy
Portfolio Deal Pullback Masks Strong Asset Sales
U.S. CRE Investment Sales | February 2026 Snapshot Headline numbers tell a misleading story this month. While total U.S. investment sales of $25.4 billion appear soft, down 17% year over year, the real culprit is a dramatic pullback in portfolio and...
Supply Rises, Sellers Active, Market Still Sluggish
A little more supply this year. Glad we're no longer seeing sellers sit back like 2023, but it's still been a very slow burn to see much change in the marketplace. https://t.co/1ItZel19q7
Office Availability Drops 12.6M Sq Ft Across Top Markets
The Office Market is Healing New York was just the beginning. Office market tightening is now sweeping through San Francisco, Houston, and Boston as availability declines. Q1 2026: All top 15 office markets saw declines in availability totaling 12.6M sq. ft New York...
Sacramento Leads Buyer Migration, But Are Rankings Accurate?
Where are buyers moving? Redfin recently came out with a top list in the United States, and Sacramento actually is the number one destination. But are these really the top spots? Some thoughts on my weekly blog. https://t.co/SPAXCixM2H https://t.co/Oqe3yaEfog
Homebuyer Demand Hits Near‑record Lows; Price Cuts Needed
Reventure's homebuyer demand index remain near a 10/100 this week, resting near the lowest levels on record. Not much has changed in terms of homebuyer demand over the last several months, even with the start to the war. This week, mortgage apps...
Luxury 4‑6‑Bedroom Rentals Remain Vastly Underserved
The Airbnb market is not saturated. The 1 and 2-bedroom market is saturated. There are roughly 2 million listings across Airbnb and VRBO. Around 70% of them are 3 bedrooms or less. That is the saturated market. The 4, 5, and 6-bedroom luxury group travel...
Slightly Elevated Withdrawals and Cancellations Remain Unremarkable
Through March, withdrawn listings and canceled contracts are still slightly elevated, but don't look particularly alarming to me https://t.co/aDY2kdN66d
Mortgage Rate Lockdown Myth Remains Unfounded
One of the most misunderstood housing economic stories in this cycle is the mortgage rate lockdown premise, which I never bought into, even in the last decade when it was being discussed. https://t.co/ae3tzVWdb9
Middle East War Lifts Fixed
Most Fixed Mortgage Rates Are Now In The 4% Range: What Should People Do? The War In The Middle East drove up Canada Bond Yields & therefore drove up Fixed Rates 5 - Yr 4.04% - 4.29% Variable Rate Mortgages now look...
Mortgage Refinance Demand Drops over 40% in a Month
Weekly #mortgage refinance demand is down more than 40% in the past month https://t.co/KBjl0aRgH6 @MBAMortgage @mortgagenewsmnd #interestrates #economy
Apartment Rents Slide as War, Job Cuts Curb Demand
#Apartment #rents weaken further as war and job cuts weigh on demand https://t.co/bhTYCv7BMT @ApartmentList @CoStarGroup @apartmentscom
Mortgage Applications Plunge 10% Weekly, Purchase Demand Slides 3%
Mortgage applications decreased 10.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey ... The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier.
Large Warehouse Leases Surge 31% as Data Centers Drive Demand
High time for storage. Demand for biggest #warehouses rebounds, w/146 leases of 500KSF bldgs+ in 25. That's up 31%+. '#Datacenter construction is starting to be a demand driver.' #realestate #CRE #industrial #logistics #Cushman #Savills https://t.co/qPqh4r1J17 via @WSJ https://t.co/6eV5DXeJBR
Cold‑Storage Hits 20‑Year High Amid Looming Industry Challenges
The reason nature abhors a vacuum is cuz it's chilly. 20-yr high hit in #coldstorage, as bldg boom, rising costs+weak demand take their toll. 'The industry is g/to have a tough couple of years.' #realestate #CRE #industrial #logistics #mortgage https://t.co/30UETCwZhR...
Sub‑6% Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Since 2015
Q4 2025 NMDB data reveals that 78% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, that's down from the peak of 93% in Q2 2022. The share of mortgaged homes with a rate below 6% is the lowest since 2015....
Replacement Cost No Longer a Credible Selling Point
We’ve gotten to the point where you almost lose credibility when you bring up replacement cost as a selling point. Take literally any retail property in America: Calculate what it would cost to build it. Add tenant improvement allowance, leasing commissions, permits,...
Raleigh Beltline Densifies, Inventory Rise Pressures Prices
"Some developers are maximizing available land, especially inside the Raleigh Beltline. They sometimes build two homes on a single lot....[I]nventory is catching up with demand, which is affecting the average sale price" 😲 https://t.co/fi12sk2s80 https://t.co/Bev8IMMjtb
China's New Home Prices Tick up in March
Reuters: "China's new home prices edged up in March, reversing a decline in the previous month, supported by a seasonal pickup in demand in major cities. New home prices in 100 cities rose 0.05% from a month earlier after falling...
New Leases Get Rent Relief as Switching Costs Drop
There’s something your landlord doesn’t want you to know: switching costs in the rental market are low right now New leases are seeing more rent relief right now than renewal leases The reason? New leases must compete on the open market amid...
Mortgage Rate Surge Undermines Two-Year Affordability Gains
GS Housing Affordability Index ticks down after 2+ years of gains Mortgage rates hit six-month highs, reversing recent affordability gains https://t.co/Czxstb76r8
Lennar's Home Incentives Triple in One Year
Lennar—America’s second-largest homebuilder—had to spend $62,700 on incentives per average home sale last year Back in 2022, that figure was $17,300 via @ResidentialClub
California's Decade-Long Migration: More Leaving Than Arriving
Leaving California? Here are some new stats from the California Policy Lab to show exits and entrances over the past decade. What stands out to you? https://t.co/AThnxkhp7K
Earn $100K by Funding Deals, Not Managing Rentals
If you want to invest in real estate real estate but don’t want to manage rentals or flip properties, private money lending is for you. Give me a follow on IG to learn why I switched from buying rentals to...
Powell's Reassurance Drops Mortgage Rates Despite Oil Surge
Mortgage rates are lower today thanks to Jerome Powell. Why? Because he put fears of Fed rate hikes to bed during a Q&A session with Harvard students yesterday. Despite surging oil prices, he said “We feel like our policy’s in a...