California Housing Boom Fuels Odd Mixed‑use Projects
He's joking, and this is an absurd example, but expect to see more weird mixed-use development as it gets easier to build housing in California and harder to build anything else. I'm aware of one self-storage project that added ~30 units on the site for HAA protections.
Housing Guidance Expected to Tighten Earlier in 2026
Last year it took until early summer for the housing industry to throw in the towel and lower guidance across the board (namely housing starts). Thinking we pull the timing of that directional guidance revision forward a few months in...
US Office Vacancy Drops Slightly, Sunbelt Leads Recovery
A glimmer of hope for offices. US vacancy falls 2 % points Though 17.6% vacancy shows there's still a long way to go. #Tech-heavy metros like #Seattle #Austin #SanFran still struggle w/#Sunbelt leads way w/12.8% #realestate #CRE #pandemic #NYC #DC...
7% Mortgage Rates Trap Sellers in Negative Real Yield
Mortgage interest rates are hitting 7 percent and sellers are locked into COVID era mortgages that are in negative real interest rate territory. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jUHCvyVvDx
6.64% Rate Threshold Determines Mortgage Demand
6.64% has always been my line in sand for rates when they tick higher from here demand slows when they go lower toward 6% things improve. Hug a mortgage spread today https://t.co/DeRZntaHsC
Mortgage Rates Likely Peaked, May Stay Under 7%
Are mortgage rates nearing a top? One could argue they've already baked in the ME conflict and $100 oil. Perhaps they go another ~0.25% higher, but manage to stay below 7%.
Two Decades of Growing Seller‑Buyer Gap in Sacramento
The gap between sellers and buyers. Here's a wide view in Sacramento over the past 25 years. More on my blog this week. https://t.co/jfVvNTgTO5
Community Banks Fund Deals With 1.25 DSCR
Let’s say you’re looking to buy a real estate deal and want to use a community bank for the financing These lenders will be looking to make sure you satisfy 5 main requirements in order to fund your deal: The 5 lender...
Outpatient Growth Fuels Surge in Healthcare Real Estate
Strong medical office fundamentals are driving a real surge in healthcare real estate investment right now. With outpatient care continuing to expand quickly and favorable demographics still firmly in place, owners and investors alike are moving fast to reposition their...
What $200K Bought in 90s Is Unthinkable Today
"Looks like $200K" was a selling point in the early '90s for this new construction home in the Sacramento area, but that wouldn't be a compliment today. https://t.co/CvPI9cITs9
Spring Leasing Lags Behind Last Year, Vacancy Trends Unclear
New data from Radix (apartment data provider) shows no sign yet of a spring leasing bump -- and, in fact, a slower start to the spring leasing season than what we saw at the same time last year. We'll get data...
Year‑to‑Date Sales Volume Across 12 Sacramento‑Area Counties
Just in case you were wondering about year-to-date sales volume in twelve counties in the wider area around Sacramento. I got you covered.... On a serious note, I do think it's fascinating to consider where transactions happen. https://t.co/CRctUqWvn9
Office-to-Residential Conversions Surge 28% as Loans Mature
Still plenty in the office>resi #conversion pipeline. Study by #RentCafe shows 90K+ in the process in early 26, up 28% from last year. 13d of office loans coming due drives the trend. #realestate #CRE #multifamily #YardiMatrix #mortgage https://t.co/gzewkNTvQh
Higher Rates Above 6.6% Dampening Demand
This is where the data in the past starts to get hit as in the past few years rates moving above 6.64% and above 7% impacts demand https://t.co/oiZjW5mQiD
Sellers Surge, Buyers Plummet as Housing Supply Near Record
"record growth of potential sellers...record decline of potential buyers...near record new supply of housing units coming to the market."
Redfin's Seller Data Is Misleading, Beware the Hype
If you men haven't learned that Redfin is playing you like a chump with their most sellers ever data, just look at their weekly pricing data since their chart came out. You guys are getting hustled. https://t.co/OJouoW3HqA
Sky‑high Home Prices, Not Rates, Suppress Demand
The mainstream media is writing articles about how higher mortgage rates/the war are killing the "housing recovery". But that's wrong. Homebuyer demand remains near its lowest levels on record, and has not improved at all over the last 4 years. This has nothing...
HST Cut Won’t Revive BC, Ontario New Construction
What's Really Stopping Residential New Construction in BC & Ontario? And Why Playing With HST Wont Fix It. Don't get me wrong removing the HST for a year on New Construction homes is a good thing because every tax reduction is...
Mortgage Rates High, Market Frozen Despite Fed Cut Hopes
Mortgage rate: 6.43%. Mortgage applications: -10.5% in a week. The housing market isn't slow. It's frozen. Nobody's buying. Nobody's selling. The Fed's "one cut" forecast isn't saving anyone at the closing table. $XHB $TLT $SPY https://t.co/4lS8cSAOkb
Investors Adapt When Home Prices Stop Rising
In our latest Real Estate Conversations podcast I talk with Dave Meyer of the massive investor community, Bigger Pockets. One thing I wanted to learn was what happens to the investor game when we can no longer rely on home prices...
Supply Shift Keeps Home Prices From Crashing in 2026
Why haven’t home prices crashed? Some thoughts and perspective on my blog today. I think many people expect 2007 results with 2026 stats, but it’s a much different supply story today. Enjoy my weekly post if you wish. https://t.co/i3BLmGTvo4 https://t.co/hcYtZOpegS
KB Home Sees Demand Rise in Jacksonville, Orlando; Tampa Lags
Giant homebuilder KB Home is seeing some demand improvement in Jacksonville and Orlando—while Tampa still remains challenged
Why Private Money Beats Banks for Real Estate
Top builders, investors, and flippers borrow money for their real estate projects from private money lenders instead of from banks. Here are the top two reasons why.
Mortgage Rates Surge, Home Purchase Applications Plummet 35%
There Goes the Spring Selling Season: Mortgage Rates Jump, Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop. Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen https://t.co/sR0N0Jznl0 https://t.co/Hkfy4IziDs
Multifamily Investing Redefines Real Estate Wealth
Most people think real estate wealth = owning properties, managing tenants, or flipping houses. Not anymore. In this episode of Raise the Bar, Seth Bradley sits down with John Casmon to break down how investors are really building wealth in today’s multifamily...
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Widens to 214 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.48% Same day last year: 6.80% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.34% Spread today: 214 bps
Iran Conflict Threatens U.S. Housing Recovery Beyond Rates
How the Iran war could crush the U.S. housing recovery, and it's not just about mortgage rates https://t.co/ecPYsnXmA5
Supply and Distress Drive Home Price Cycles
Supply and distress supply are the big keys; we have 84 years of data on this and many economic cycles with nominal national home prices data. https://t.co/7ojUXodFpL
Outpatient Demand Soars, New Space Scarce and Pre‑leased
Houston is expecting a 16% jump in outpatient patient visits by 2029. New MOB construction under way? Less than 1% of existing supply. What little is being built is already spoken for: roughly 80% of that space is preleased before...
Sky‑High Rates Stall Existing Home Sales, New Sales Flat
Rates getting to 18% made is less affordable back then, different ways to measure this, but prices & rates exploded. A big variable on why existing home sales haven't finished a year under 4,000,000 the last 3 with with new...
1970s Rates Spiked, yet Home Prices Outpaced COVID Era
From 1977 to 1979, mortgage rates rose from 8% to 13%, yet home prices still grew faster than during the sub-4% COVID years. Rates peaked around 18%, with spreads being quite large at nearly 6%. The spread market today is...
Past Home Price Booms Surpassed Covid, No Crash
The hottest home price growth period was 1943-1947, with no bubble crash afterward, and 1977-1979 had even hotter price increases than during Covid, also without a bubble crash. If people bothered to read books instead of burning them, they would...
Sacramento’s Top 10 $2M+ Sales Hotspots Revealed
Here are the top 10 locations for 2M and above sales in the Sacramento region over the past five years. What stands out to you? And what are you seeing at the high-end right now? I’d love to hear your...
Fixed‑rate 30‑year Loans Stabilize Debt as Wages Climb
30-year fixed loan. Fixed debt cost and rising wages, even with more people with 6% plus mortgage rates vs 3% and lower. https://t.co/fLDxpBRw15
Mortgage Applications Up YoY, Weekly Demand Drops
#Mortgage purchase application data remains positive year over year, but weekly demand declined last week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #economics #mortgagerstes #chartdaddy
Purchase Applications Dip 5% Weekly, YoY Growth Slows
Purchase application data, although still positive year over year, showed a week-to-week decline of 5% and the YoY growth slowed down. https://t.co/1ZaOtoeLuN
Homebuilders Face Critical Shift Despite Stable Housing Market
Everyone’s asking if the housing market is crashing. It’s not. But something important is happening with homebuilders right now that every investor needs to understand.
Feb Home-Sale Contracts Fail at Record 13.7%
"More than 42,000 U.S. home-sale agreements fell through in February, equal to 13.7% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 12.8% a year earlier, and the highest February share in records dating back to 2017." -Redfin
New Homes Cost More Per Square Foot; Size Must Shrink
New construction always be more expensive PSF than older construction So the only way you can make new homes less expensive than existing homes by making them smaller … on average.
Record February Home Purchase Cancellations Hit 13.7%
42k US home purchases were canceled in February which equates to 13.7% of all homes under contract. That's the highest cancellation percentage for any February on record. https://t.co/QuxiWyB3TE
Tight MOB Supply Drives Record Occupancy and Rising Rents
Constrained MOB supply keeps occupancy high and rents growing. 5 Things to Know: 1⃣ MOB occupancy hit a record 92.7% in 2025, up 30 basis points from the end of 2024. Demand is outpacing every new square foot being delivered to...
Private Money Lending: Passive Returns After Initial Due Diligence
Private money lending is the most passive way to invest in real estate. However, it takes work upfront. Majority of the work will be understanding paperwork, strategy, and how to vet borrowers. Give me a follow on IG and Threads...
Single-Family Home Inventory Rises 1.2% Weekly
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Altos: Active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-123
Sellers Return: New Listings Surpass 2024 Levels Again
Sellers are continuing to come back to the market after backing off in 2025. This will be the fourth month in a row where new listings outpace 2024 levels. I've wondered if uncertainty regarding the Iran war would cause sellers...
Canadian Homes Have Been Losing Money for a Decade
Canadian real estate is getting DEMOLISHED 🇨🇦 If you bought a principal residence in the last 10 years you lost money. Even if you bought all-cash you’re negative with inflation, property tax, insurance, and maintenance. And if you had interest payments, you’re even...
Housing Likely to Underperform Private Equity in Five Years
Predicting forward returns is notoriously difficult but setting expectations can be helpful Which asset class will have worse returns over the next 5 years: Housing or private equity? https://t.co/AbfW2cXe9G https://t.co/ig9j4zorjK
Sacramento Listings See Rising Cancellations, Condos Hit Hardest
Some listings don’t make it to the finish line, and cancellations are slightly higher this year so far in the Sacramento region. Why are some listings canceling? And why are condos struggling more?
Florida Housing: Extreme Booms, Sharper Downturns
When it comes to housing, Florida doesn't do "average" It overheats more during booms—and corrects more during downturns Florida is the epicenter of the boom-bust phenomenon https://t.co/q5q3SyDu44
Rising Mortgage Rates Threaten Struggling Canadian Housing Market
If Mortgage Rates Keep Rising What Happens To The Canadian Housing Market? We have seen some Fixed Mortgage Rates rise nearly 20% since the Middle East War began: depends on which Bank & length of term Important: the War could end Friday...
Beginner’s Blueprint: Analyze Rents, Expenses, and Market Before Buying
Let’s say you’re a beginner looking at a new market for the 1st time Figuring out where to start can be daunting Here’re the steps you should take so you can start buying deals 1. Source market rents 2. Understand expense load 3. Get to...