Mega Office Projects Struggle Amid Stagnant Demand and Rising Rates
Serious question - how do the economics of these mega developments actually work? Structural demand for office space in Japan is stagnant at best (at best). This was before WFH etc. and now yen rates are pushing 2.5% so money actually costs something…
Condo Prices Drop 12‑31% Across Major Markets
Condo Prices Dropped by 12% to 31% in 31 Bigger Markets. Some Are where They’d Been 20 Years ago, such as Oakland. Condos face some special challenges. Oakland (-31%), St. Petersburg, FL (-28%), Austin (-26%) … the names pile up. https://t.co/SfUETbLV1D https://t.co/Jqb669OFDP
2.5% Cap Rate Rise Erases 30% Equity
Cap rates go from 4% to 6.5%. No big deal, right? Just a 2.5% move? Nope, that’s a 38.5% crash. Put down 30%? You’re completely wiped out. But everyone reading this understands basic commercial real estate math and already knows this.
Pandemic Fuels 4.7M SF Supply Gap, Rents Surge
The MOB Market: Low vacancy. Rising rents. Demand outpacing supply. Since the pandemic, demand has outpaced new supply by 4.7 million SF across the top 100 markets. https://t.co/TyEj7PBonU
National Vacancy Rates Surpass 2019, Sun Belt Rentals Cool
The national vacancy rate is now above pre-pandemic 2019 levels Just as in the for-sale market, Sun Belt boomtowns have been experiencing the biggest cyclical rental cooldowns Chart via @ResidentialClub
Charge Higher Spread for High‑Risk, Heavy‑Lift Deals
Just because the standard is to underwrite 150 bps of spread doesn’t mean you should do that for every deal. This is a multifamily deal I was looking at a little while ago. It’s a *heavy* lift: - Currently operating as a...
NJ's Housing Crisis Mirrors National Shortage, Prices Soar
New Jersey has one of America's biggest housing shortages - and no one is paying attention. NJ inventory levels are down 63% from pre-pandemic norms, and refuse to recover. Today there are only 14k listings on the market compared to...
Mortgage Rates Drop 0.57% YoY, Spread Widens
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.30% Same day last year: 6.87% --------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.26 Spread today: 204 bps
Homebuilders Push Freehold Sales, Let Residents Choose Management
Astonishing that homebuilders believes that they can actually get away this. Just sell the share of freehold and let the residents choose their mgt agent. They'd be selling with a higher margin anyway.
Urban Apartment Build Slows, Suburban Rents Set to Outpace
Apartment construction is down everywhere but ESPECIALLY in/around downtown areas across the U.S. On a relative basis, we built far more apartments in urban areas than in the suburbs over the past 15 years. As a result, urban rents grew far...
Timing Beats Price: Early Entry Drives Real Estate Gains
Why most investors lose money… even in a rising real estate market Everyone thinks: “If prices are going up, I’ll make money.” But this chart shows why that’s wrong. First — how to read this chart: • X-axis = when you enter the market cycle • Y-axis =...
Retail Is Evolving, Not Disappearing: Growth Across Sectors
Retail isn’t slowing down — it’s shifting. Grocery demand rising McDonald’s expanding again Walmart reinvesting Private equity betting on QSR Retail brands restructuring Service-based tenants growing The strongest retail isn’t disappearing — it’s evolving. Sumanjeet Singh DRE :02107827 #RetailRealEstate #NetLeaseInvestments #CommercialRealEstate #RetailInvestment #nnnproperties
Industrial Deals: Buy Low, Wait, Re‑lease, Then Profit.
Industrial real estate in a good area: 1. Figure out roughly what tenants are willing to pay 2. Buy a building for a price where that rent will generate a reasonable return 3. Once the existing tenant(s)' lease ends, re-lease at market rent 4....
Median Price Ignores Bedroom Count, Misleads Families
Another example ⬇️⬇️ why price $$ per unit is an incomplete metric Median “home” price does not account for the number of bedrooms … which REALLY matters for families.
Leverage Small Deals by Turning Sellers Into Banks
"If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100MM, that's the bank's problem" What people don't realize is that you can create this exact scenario with way less money Let's say you're looking to buy a...
Inventory Climbs, Listings Far Below Crash‑era Peaks
Surging inventory 😏 … New listings were 77,000 last week. During the housing crash years, weekly numbers ranged from 250K to 400K per week for years. We likely won’t reach 100K during the upcoming peak weeks, which will arrive soon...
Easter Bounce Vs. Rate Cuts: What Drove Recovery?
Was it lower #mortgagerates or the Easter holiday rebound that caused a quick recovery in the data? We take a look at that with this weekend's tracker. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Superstar Cities Thrive While Others Face Steep Decline
Japan is an advanced case of trends present in nearly every developing country and it seems like: (a) superstar cities will be fine, (b) second tier cities/regional hubs will struggle, and (c) everything else -- smaller cities, towns, rural areas...
Better Spread Levels Keep Mortgage Rates About 1% Lower
If we had the worst mortgage spread levels of 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.39% today, not 6.29%. If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.02% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates...
Conventional Financing Dominates While Cash Share Stays Small
Just in case you woke up wanting to see financing and cash since 2009. Check out how dominant conventional financing has been (brown). I think many people think cash is that prominent. https://t.co/duZai0iwSs
Senate Bill Lets Institutions Buy Fixer‑Uppers With 15% Repair Spend
Institutional investors could still buy single-family homes needing major repairs under the Senate housing bill—will they? It still allows institutional SFH resale acquisitions if they spend >15.0% of purchase price spent on repairs ResiClub PRO https://t.co/Xk3ZCcdQcW
Home Sales Steady; No Waiting Crowd, Life Moves On
There have been nearly 5,000,000 total home sales every year since 2023. The idea that a large group of people is waiting isn’t supported by the data; the peak in the last decade was near 6,000,000. Every day, you get...
Capital Flow, Not Demand, Drives Gurgaon Real Estate Prices
How prices actually move across Gurgaon’s real estate cycle (2010–2025) Most people think prices move because of demand. That’s incomplete. Prices move because of where capital is flowing in the cycle. Before we start — how to read this chart: • X-axis = Market cycle phase...
Cities Are Pushing Families Out; Housing Must Change
“Families with children often cannot find a suitably sized home ... and are either forced to move to a different part of the city or out of the capital altogether." I've been saying this for a long time And working stem or...
Tennessee Home Prices Surge, Yet Dip Expected by 2027
Something big is happening in Tennessee's housing market right now. Listings have shot up 50% above the long-term norm. And inventory breached 30,000. (the highest in a decade) Values in markets like Nashville and Memphis have started to drift down YoY for the...
Pending Home Sales Return to Year‑Over‑Year Growth
Weekly Pending Home Sales are back to positive year-over-year. "Mind," This week's data is the snap back from the holiday week. Next week will be back to normal, more on this with the weekend tracker
Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6.1% Mortgage Rates Through 2027
#NEW Fannie Mae's revised forecast expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average... 6.2% in Q3 2026 6.1% in Q4 2026 6.1% in Q1 2027 6.1% in Q2 2027 6.1% in Q3 2027 6.1% in Q4 2027 https://t.co/AhH8SZ64tC
NIMBY Policies Block Housing Supply, Drive High Rents
We both know @Timodc, from living in places that allow new units, that a couple of penthouses are not the problem... The problem is the inability to build new units in Democrat-led cities... SF, LA and NY, it's the same...
Mid‑range Homes ($400‑500K) See Strongest Growth
More buyers at lower prices? Don't sleep on the trend. We're seeing the most growth right now in the region between $400K to $500K. More on my blog. https://t.co/k8PxYYpcrC https://t.co/ImgNJtdh6D
411k FHA Borrowers Face Equity Risk in Weak Markets
Doing a little more deep dive on FHA borrowers. How many people are "at risk" with low or negative equity and higher mortgage rates? About 411,000 since mid-2022. Many of the biggest FHA markets, like Phoenix and Houston, have had the...
Housing Hope Delayed One Year, Still On Track
Good housing read from @conorsen. Housing hope delayed a year but not totally derailed feels about right. https://t.co/3R3f8NDfvG
Milwaukee Leads Home Price Gains; Austin Trails Losses
#NEW Home price shifts across America's 50 largest metro area housing markets Tightest: Milwaukee, WI (+5.7% YoY) Weakest: Austin, TX (-5.9% YoY) MoM = Month-over-month YoY = Year-over-year Without seasonal adjustment Analysis via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/Q58oWthGbA
First-Time Builders: What Private Lenders Offer & Requirements
As a first-time builder, here’s what you can expect to get from a private lender on your first new construction project – and what you need to qualify. #newconstruction #newbuild #builder #realestateinvesting #privatemoneylender
Hamptons Real Estate Inventory Drops 35% in Q1
How low w/inventory go in the #Hamptons where available #realestate, always tight, fell 35% in Q1, following banner 25 that featured sky-high deals? Waiting on 'death, divorce, distress' #NY #LongIsland #mortgage https://t.co/zIdHd23XCX
Challenges Spark Innovation, Fueling Explosive Business Growth
Different aspects of our business have only improved dramatically when they’ve been challenging. For example: Years ago, when it was taking longer to lease space than I would have liked, it forced us to drill down like crazy and figure out how...
SF $2k/Ft Homes Ripple Into Bay Suburbs
Single-family homes going for $2,000/ft in SF is going to have trickle-down effects, just curious whether it shows up more in Bay Area suburbs or the kinds of places SF people leave when they can’t afford to stay. @mikesimonsen @NewsLambert
NYC Pension Funds Allocate $4B to Citywide Housing
Big news: we just announced our plan to invest $4B of NYC’s pension funds in financing housing across the five boroughs
Expensive U.S. Cities See Sharp Housing Price Swings
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, March 2026. From “Mansion Shortage” in AI-bubble-epicenter San Francisco infecting mid-tier home prices, to Austin & Oakland prices plunging over 25% since 2022 https://t.co/gQYh2m0pnZ https://t.co/v3Kk4XR5CY
2025 HMDA Data Shows FHA Borrower Credit
Since the only corner of the US housing market that has any distressed borrowers are in the FHA loans, I was curious if the credit quality of FHA borrowers deteriorated over the past few years. The 2025 HMDA data is...
Florida Short Sales Surge, Foreclosures up 43% YoY
Over 1,000 houses in Florida now have the word 'short sale' in their listing description. Most are listed at a loss from the previous sale. Some at a $100,000+ discount. Real distress is starting to show up. According to ATTOM, foreclosures...
U.S. Home Prices Continue Steady Gains, Up 0.6% MoM
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, rose +0.6% month-over-month between the February 2026 and March 2026 Year-over-year: +0.8% Since 2022's peak: +2.2% Since March 2020: +44.1% Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/HanulIqzx2
AI Firms Devour NYC Office Space, Leasing Data Shows
My friend and broker from the Breather days, Ramsey Fehrer at CBRE, shared NYC tech leasing data they pulled for a client recently. AI is eating NYC office space. https://t.co/tEdfzI97NT
San Francisco Agents Unanimously See Price Rises, National Confidence Low
Nationally, only 27% of the resale agents we just surveyed said home prices were mostly increasing month over month. TOTALLY different story in San Francisco, where 100% of agents said prices rising. Not sure I’ve seen that high a conviction in...
Buyers Favor Properly Priced Homes, Overpricing Fails
Overpricing is not working, but buyers respond to well-priced homes. Only 21.6% of pendings needed a reduction before getting into contract in April. In contrast, 33.7% of active listings in the Sacramento region have had a price reduction. https://t.co/x4ayQ8T7U2
Hamptons Home Prices Hit Record, Surge over 30%
Lots of bonus cash, too little supply: "The median sales price for the Hamptons surged 18.3% annually to $2.4M, highest on record, Average sales price also surged 31% to $4.3M, the highest on record -@jonathanmiller
China’s New‑home Prices Dip 0.21% in March, Easing Pressure
1/3 Bloomberg: "New-home prices in 70 cities in China dropped 0.21% in March, the second consecutive month of easing pressure and the smallest decline in 11 months." https://t.co/OQEWA9QELf
45 Granite Bay ADU Comps Reveal Robust Market Data
Pulling comps for a property with an ADU. There are 45 data points here in Granite Bay with a listed ADU in MLS. These are sales since 2025 as well as current listings. Granted, some of these will be pool...
Demographics, Not Growth, Fuel Housing Demand; New Builds Lag
"Demographic change—not population growth—is the main driver of housing demand. And while the surge in new construction [in California] is welcome, it has not yet translated into meaningful relief for households struggling with high costs." https://t.co/SvBbqFg8yx
NYC Developers Exploit 99‑Unit Loophole, Merge Buildings
In 2024, NYC offered tax breaks & regulatory relief (labor regs, especially) for new apartment buildings with some "affordable housing" & fewer than 100 units. So, NYC developers built dozens of "99-unit" buildings & then... stitched them back together. LOL.
Charlotte Studios Surge Fivefold Since Financial Crisis
Over the last half century, the *kind* of apartments we have built has changed Post GFC, developers have shifted towards building more, smaller units In the City of Charlotte (not metro) the SHARE % of new units built as Studios has gone...