Unlock Hidden CRE Strategy: Secure National Tenants Early
In this episode, Cherif Medawar breaks down one of the most overlooked commercial real estate strategies today, how to control deals, secure national tenants, and create massive upside before you even close. Tune in now: 📺 : https://youtu.be/DI2HYxsH6vc 🍏 : https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/raise-the-bar/id1543049208
California Homeowners Still Locked Into Sub‑4% Mortgages
Everyone keeps talking about lock-in going away, saying the share of mortgage rates above 6% now exceeds those below 3%. Maybe in Alabama. In California, most still can't/won't move as evidenced by 34% of homeowners holding a rate between 3-3.99%...
Mortgage Applications Plunge; Sellers Must Slash Prices
Mortgage applications to buy a house fell again. They're back down to an index level of 159, which is more than 50% below the pandemic peak in early 2021. Not only that - they're now declining year-over-year, reversing a slight positive trend...
Sales Rise Thanks to $400‑500K Volume Surge
We have slightly more sales in 2026 compared to 2025 in the Sacramento region, and the x-factor has been higher volume between $400K to $500K this year. Why do you think we've seen more sales in this price bucket?
Q1 Sales Volume Up Only 0.3%, Essentially Flat
Sales volume is slightly ahead of last year. Technically, we could say it was the best first quarter of volume since 2022, but volume is really only up 0.3% from last year (basically flat). https://t.co/UW13FjQ48p
Single-Family Home Sales Index Drops to 37 in April
JUST IN: The NAHB index for single-family home sales dropped to 37 in April from March's revised 41, previously 42.
Winning in CRE Requires Off‑Market Access, Not Public Listings
Smart CRE investors don’t compete on listed deals. They win through access. • Off-market opportunities • Distress situations • Land and entitlement plays If you’re only looking at what’s public… you’re already late. #CommercialRealEstate #CREInvesting #CaliforniaCRE #RealEstateInvestors #InvestmentStrategy
Self‑Storage Built for $2.4M Grows to $8M
We built this self storage facility in 2015. Opened the doors in 2017. All-in cost: $2.4 million. Acquired the property across the street for $500k a year later. It did over $100,000 of rev recently. It’s worth $8 million + today and we...
AI Price Advice Now Derailing Real‑estate Offers
Ok so this is a first for us: Broker gives us pricing guidance, we make an offer, and broker gets back to us. “The seller was happy with your offer. But ChatGPT told him it’s worth $2M more, so he’s going...
Host-City Hotel Rates Fall a Third, Demand Softens
"Match-day room rates in host cities including Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Philadelphia and San Francisco have dropped about a third from their peak earlier this year, according to data tracker Lighthouse Intelligence, in a sign of lower than anticipated demand."
DBS Bank Seals Hong Kong’s Biggest Office Deal of 2024
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) has agreed to pay about HK$2.62 billion (US$334 million) for six floors at The Center, marking the city’s largest office transaction so far this year.
Choose Deal‑by‑deal for Low‑cost, Flexible REPE Startup
You want to start your own real estate private equity firm but you don’t know how much it’ll cost Here’s how to think about start-up costs: There are basically 2 ways to set up a real estate private equity firm 1. First way...
Housing Yields Sweet Spot: ≤6.25% Thanks to Spreads
The sweet spot for housing over the past few years has been 6.25% and under, with duration. The only reason we have a shot here again is due to the spreads this year
SF Buyers Pay Premium for Move‑in Ready Homes
The other factor here is that it is already remodeled. Buyers are afraid of the time and cost to remodel in SF so they’re paying big premiums for completed work.
Institutional Investors Expand US Housing Supply via Distressed Home Rehab
New @AEI case study finds that institutional investors boost US housing supply by buying single family homes in poor condition (thus likely underused/vacant), quickly rehabilitating them, and returning them to the market for sale to individual homeowners: https://t.co/oRNyDFJcil https://t.co/DswoYpfXZ7
Deep Dive Into U.S. Single‑Family Housing Market Trends
Last week, @WellsFargo had me give a presentation on the U.S. single-family housing market and homebuilding for their institutional clients If you'd like to see the 34-chart slideshow, email lance@resiclubanalytics.com https://t.co/Lmcesf5ymB
Prime Midtown Fetches $700+/Sqft in $385M Deal
$700+/foot for prime #Midtown. #SovereignPartners+#HudsonPoint may pay $385M for #575Fifth, at 5th+47th. #NYC #realestate #CRE #investmentsales #mortgage #Eastdil #Savills #Sakhai https://t.co/rwtwZ6wI0E
CRE ETF Mirrors Market: Higher Highs, Lower Lows
$IYR Daily. Commercial real estate ETF may be a microcosm for broad market: Massive broadening pattern of higher highs but lower lows. Loose & sloppy since last summer. Tons of debt, empty buildings https://t.co/isus0WM0lO
Case‑Shiller Reveals National Housing Price Crash.
If you show the Case-Shiller index instead of a median sales price index, prices have been crashing nationally "The drugs you're on," Wow https://t.co/98Oo6wuBbW
Underwriting Simplified: Three Core Questions for Deal Success
A lot of people try to complicate the real estate underwriting process, but it’s actually pretty simple once you understand the basics Here are the central questions you need to answer during your underwriting: Question 1: “Can I capitalize the deal?” Question 2:...
Santa Monica Rents Fall 8% After Three-Year Decline
Santa Monica rents have gone down for 3 years in a row, down 8.1% in the last year LA rents also down Remember: Rents go up and down https://t.co/ohWuaQQoYT
Austin's Housing Boom Cuts Rents Amid Population Growth
"Austin’s Surge of New Housing Construction Drove Down Rents" (even as its population grew) https://t.co/Mi7GYtLlbz https://t.co/HAdE5iQaBO
Housing Market Slowdown Began Before War-Driven Rate Hikes
House sales were slowing even before the war sent mortgage rates higher and gas prices soaring https://t.co/rfpqU6llQd
Track Capital Rotation to Anticipate Market Moves
Capital doesn’t stay in one place. It rotates. And if you understand this rotation… You stop chasing the market and start entering before it moves. This chart explains Gurgaon better than any report. Let’s break it down 👇 ### First — what are you looking...
WM Senibong IPO: Bet on Singapore’s Land Scarcity
The upcoming RM500 million IPO of WM Senibong isn't a signal of Malaysia's domestic property strength—it's a massive, coordinated bet on Singapore's shrinking land space. While the headlines focus on the target valuation of more than RM2 billion, there's a...
Goldman Predicts Modest 2026 Price Rise, Many Regions Fall
Goldman Sachs' latest forecast expects U.S. single-family home prices, as measured by Case-Shiller, to rise +0.7% in calendar year 2026 In that type of environment, around 35%-45% of regional housing market post outright annual nominal declines https://t.co/D37QmxUgc9
Home Sales Plummet as Supply Peaks, Condos Hit Record Low
Single-Family Home Sales Drop Further into Deepfreeze, Supply Hits 10-Year High, Condo Sales Plunge to Record Low March was a lousy beginning of spring selling season. But mortgage rates ticked up only modestly. https://t.co/B5wK4sU0lw https://t.co/jYisYhV9je
US Housing Sales Plummet, Prices Still Out of Reach
The U.S. Housing Market is in a full-fledged depression. Existing sales in March just hit their 2nd lowest level ever for the month, behind only 2009. Not only that - sales volumes are down 25% from pre-pandemic norms and continue to...
Inventory Shift: Sun Belt Stabilizes, Northeast Declines, Rates Under 6.25%
2026.... Think 2023 data Except that spreads are much lower, we have a lot of rate cuts in the system. Inventory is higher, but hard comps for inventory growth until mid-June. Housing shifted in Mid June of 2025. Look at...
Homebuilders Bet on Growth Markets Amid Housing Volatility
Despite housing market choppiness why giant homebuilders are sticking long-term with growth markets There's a strong relationship between population growth & single-family permitting. High building activity is largely concentrated in growth markets https://t.co/zwEuUTYf0H
Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 600K, Affordability Crisis Freezes Market
JUST IN: Home sellers now outnumber buyers by 600,000. That's the largest gap ever recorded in US history. The housing market isn't frozen because nobody wants to sell. It's frozen because nobody can AFFORD to buy. A $400K home now costs $960 more...
Class A Dominates 70% of Houston Q1 Office Leasing
Approximately 70% of the total office leasing volume in Houston for Q1 2026 was in Class A properties.
ARM's Lower Rates May Outshine 30-Year Fixed Now
What's the point of taking out a 30-year fixed mortgage right now if rates are only expected to move lower over the next five years? They made perfect sense when mortgage rates hit record lows in the 2021, but why now? Rates...
Older Condos Falling Faster Than Detached Homes
Condos have declined more than the detached market. I find the older developments have struggled more. https://t.co/0cBXaIJT83
California's Homeownership Decline Calls for Massive Housing Build
California has the second lowest homeownership rate in the US after New York, and we've lost ground over the past 20 years. This is not healthy. We need to build a lot more housing and create the next generation of...
Manhattan Rents Hit Record $5k, Supply Crisis Persists
New monthly report: Median rents in Manhattan remain at record high $5k/month. +6% over past year. Avg. for 2-bed hit all-time high $8,166. Lack of supply is driving these sky-high rents: "In March, Manhattan’s rental market remained incredibly inventory constrained. With just...
Housing Market Shifts to Demand Destruction, Setting up Snapback
The housing market has flipped from scarcity → demand destruction. Prices likely soften, but the bigger story is collapsed activity. This is a rate-driven cyclical slowdown, not a balance-sheet crisis. It sets up a future snapback trade once affordability improves.
30‑
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.41% Same day last year: 7.07% --------------------- 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.31% Spread today: 210 bps
True Housing Shortage only 1 Million, Not 10 Million
Our housing shortage estimate is 1 million, and it’s shrinking. This 10 million figure far exceeds all other estimates I’ve ever come across over the years.
Current Housing Competition Mirrors Pre‑2020 Norms, Not Crises
Many people compare the housing market to extreme years like 2007 and 2021, but the stats are nothing like those years. Competition today is actually very close to the pre-2020 norm (avg of 2016 to 2019). https://t.co/gqwbjF2mGi
Resale Turnover Stays Tight Amid Slowing Sales
U.S. existing home sales by month Resale turnover remains constrained This is the raw adjusted data Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/5kA7jnxkLh
March Home Sales Miss Warns of April Slowdown
Today’s March miss on existing home sales is concerning, as most those closings were negotiated and mortgage rate locked well before housing demand cooled post-Iran mortgage rate spike. Not a great sign for what’s to come in April, which we...
Peak Inventory at 1.5M,
While inventory won't get back to normal 2-2.5 million, having peak inventory above 1.52 million and 4 months plus of supply during the seasonal peak supply months is a much healthier backdrop than in the past
Homes Now Sell in 30‑45 Days, Market Healthier than Covid Era
30-45 days on the market is normal, this is a much healthier marketplace than the Covid years
NAR Pending Data Increasingly Diverges From Existing Sales
Back-to-back months, there is a gap between the NAR's pending and their existing home sales data, which has been more common lately, this is why I am suspect of their pending data
Lower Rates Could Reverse Expected Home Price Decline
My forecast of negative -0.62% national home price growth is at risk if rates go lower
March Existing‑home Sales Fall 3.6% Overall
NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 3.6% Decrease in March a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. 1.0% decrease in sales year-over-year.
Apartment Development Remains Fragmented; No 8k+ Builder Since 2019
For the first time since 2019, no single apartment developer started 8k+ units last year, according to the newly released NMHC Top 25 developers list. Greystar still ranked No. 1 with 7.2k units, amounting to 1.9% of all U.S. apartment starts...
Apartments Built Cheap, Owned Short-Term, Profit-Driven
Because most apartment buildings are financed with short term money Those facade materials are cheap … and the people who BUILD apartments do not OWN buildings long term Buildings are designed as financial products: to maximize rents at stabilization
Japan‑1990s and China Today Share Real‑estate Crisis Dynamics
New @nberpubs: "A Tale of Two Countries – The Real Estate Crises in 1990s Japan and Contemporary China" https://t.co/au6sFcLXSp "striking parallels in investment dynamics and consumption responses despite profound institutional differences." https://t.co/yz5TYRePB8