Stop Waiting—Great Deals Exist at One‑third Price
People on this site are somehow still “waiting for the market to drop” meanwhile I’m about to submit an offer on a deal at 1/3rd the 2022 sale price If you’re not seeing deals right now, you have a problem
Sacramento Median and Average Prices Mirror Since 2014
Similar vibes. The average and median have been twinning since 2014 in the Sacramento region. Check out the up and down seasonal rhythm too. Remember, part of the up and down has to do with larger homes selling in the...
Investment Volume Spikes 18%, Larger Deals Reappear
MSCI Q1 2026: Volume Climbs 18% Investment volume reached $110.7 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, continuing a growth trend that began in mid-2025. While single-asset deals remain the primary source of liquidity, the market is seeing a selective return of larger...
Institutional Investors Are Boosting Housing Supply by Selling Homes
Reminder that big institutional investors also add to housing supply. Dallas Tanner (CEO – Invitation Homes $INVH): 04/30/26 earnings call: “We’ve sold almost 20,000 homes back into the marketplace in the history of our business.”
UWM's VantageScore Option Can Cut Mortgage Rates
The nation's top mortgage lender (UWM) has rolled out a VantageScore option for customers. Borrowers who qualify with FICO but have a higher VantageScore could obtain better pricing due to lower LLPAs. However, b/c VantageScore is new and untested, it must be...
Buyer Demand Near Record Lows; Price Cuts Needed
Homebuyer demand remained near record lows to close out April. With Reventure's buyer demand index downshifting to 9/100 this month. For comparison: a 50/100 is "normal", and the current readings are near the lowest on record. Suggesting that the spring 2026 season...
Sellers Are Also Buyers, so They Won’t Accept Low Offers
A lot of people fail to realize that "boomers" and other home sellers are also home buyers, most of the time. This makes them would-be sellers, who won't just sell for any price b/c you think they should. Why? Because they...
How to Value California Governor’s Mansion Listing
How do we pull comps on the mansion that was built for the California governor? This estate is currently listed for sale, and today I have some thoughts in my weekly post. https://t.co/LymXG0FbtG https://t.co/J1HJJ1HJaT
Low‑Rise Home Building Surges After Four‑Year Slump
New Home Construction Industry Rises From The Grave: Low-Rise Home Building Jumps Hi-Rise Condos Still Dead Building new Single Family, Semi's & Townhouses has been Dead in Ontario for 4 years Ottawa has crawled along but Southern Ontario a total crash Until this...
House Price Growth Stalls; Punta Gorda, Austin Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in March; Up only 0.7% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased-9d1
Serious Sellers Share Key Lease Details, Not Just Offers
It happens countless times a day in America. A broker cold-calls a property owner to see if they’d be interested in selling, and they get the most nonsensical answer possible: “Sure, bring me an offer.” When the broker asks for more information about...
Ayala Land Trades at Roughly Half Its Book Value
Ayala Land, one of the Philippines most well-known and respected property developers, is now being valued by the market at near HALF book value. Wow https://t.co/ePVrGvsF8S
Southside Atlanta Home Prices Decline Since 2022 Peak
Atlanta’s Southside correction pocket The map below shows home price shift since that Atlanta area ZIP Code's 2022 peak via ResiClub Terminal
Oversized 3BRs Inflate Rent; Smaller Units Save Money
The "problem" with modern 3BR apartments is that they are too large Increased size pushes up the rents And then with all the extra space, it ends up getting filled with too many bathrooms and bedrooms that are too larger An urban 3BR...
Miami Records Historic Domestic Exodus, Real Estate Slumps
Miami's domestic migration just plunged to the lowest level on record in 2025. With an astounding -113,000 net Americans fleeing the 3-county metro. Note that Miami usually loses Americans due to outbound migration, and makes up for it with international immigration. But...
Starwood Fund Freezes Redemptions, Slashes Dividend Amid Liquidity Crunch
Starwood property fund halting all redemptions and cutting its dividend. This has mostly been gated since 2024 when the @FT outline how it had drawn down its liquidity significantly to pay redemptions, instead of selling assets. https://t.co/eirUSkAkPh
Current Sacramento Home Sale Prices: Full Price Spread
What price points are selling? Here's the spread of prices in the Sacramento region through today.
Sacramento Home Prices: Current Selling Range Revealed
What price points are selling? Here's the spread of prices in the Sacramento region through today. https://t.co/4eizMvc1jD
Land Taxes Reward Emptiness, Driving Soaring Home Prices
U.S. home prices have quadrupled since 1995, but it's not that homes got more expensive to build. It's that the LAND they sit on did. We tax buildings the same as land, so owners are rewarded for keeping lots empty and...
Texas Rents Fall Sharply as Supply Outpaces Demand
"Rents have declined across Texas due to excess rental property supply (Chart 1). The sharpest rent drops in the state have been in Austin, San Antonio and Dallas." https://t.co/O61kiuAhpW https://t.co/NMe2ewnoJQ
Texas Leads Biggest Home Price Drops Among Top Counties
Chart: Among the nation's 500 largest counties, these 50 have seen the biggest home price decline since their local 2022 peak price -26.0% -> Travis County, TX -24.6% -> Williamson County, TX -24.1% -> Hays County, TX -23.9% -> Charlotte County, FL
Apartment REITs Show Steady Gains Amid Tapering Supply
Quick read of apartment REITs earnings reports this week: Seems to be mostly a steady-eddy, as-expected story -- good occupancy, low turnover, and even some concession burn-off. Not a surge, but clearly optimistic as supply tapers back.
MOB Sales Surge, Prices Stabilize as Private Buyers Lead
MOB Sales Volume Increasing, Pricing Continues to Stabilize MOB transaction volume on a TTM basis reached approximately $15.4B nationally through 1Q26. Private/investor buyers dominate at 72% of volume YTD 2026, with REITs accounting for only 21%. On-campus MOB pricing is down...
Mortgage Rates Climb Again; Jobs Data Will Decide Impact
Looks like mortgage rates are heading higher again after a nice little reprieve in early April. The jobs report next week will either add to the pain or offset the move higher. Will be important, especially as new Fed chair comes in.
Mortgage Rates Climb, yet Homebuyers Start Returning
#Mortgage rates are rising again, but homebuyers are trickling back https://t.co/Cn6MwsBKjW @MBAMortgage @mortgagenewsmnd #realestate #housingmarket #realestateinvesting
Half of Sacramento Deals Include Seller Concessions
Good news for buyers. Seller concessions in the Sacramento region are taking place in about half of transactions. These are things like a credit for repairs, credit for closing costs, or buying down the rate. What types of concessions are...
Mortgage Rates Jump to 6.38%—survey Your Tolerance
4.40% --> average mortgage rate on all outstanding U.S. mortgages: 6.38% --> average mortgage rate today Homeowners: What’s the highest mortgage rate you’d accept on your next home purchase? Take our annual Housing Sentiment Survey here: https://t.co/t2Yn9pawIo
40% Home Price Drop Triggers Massive Distress Sales
History indicates that a 40% nominal national home price crash would necessitate significant distress sales. https://t.co/h46Wqa4NpK
Purchase App Data Shows 2% Weekly, 21% YoY Growth
Purchase application data update: 2% week to week growth. 21% year over year growth https://t.co/0rJaQcBlPc
Most Case-Shiller Cities See Price Drops, Midwest Holds Steady
12 of the 20 Case Shiller cities are showing home price declines vs last year. LA and DC slid into negative territory this month. Nationally, thanks to very tight supply in the midwest, home prices are still barely above zero...
Proposed Housing Investor Ban Halts Builders, Hurts Real People
The Senate-passed bill banning institutional housing investors isn't yet law but has already "stopped home builders in their tracks" by scaring off investors & lenders. An instant case study of bad policy harming real people, even when just for show 😡 https://t.co/h5oaq2IAYN...
Higher Rates Raise Investors' Opportunity Cost in Value‑add Real Estate
Don't think I appreciated the full impact of higher interest rates on the heavy value-add real estate business when rates increased initially in '22. The problem for operators isn't just the higher exit caps. It's the increased opportunity cost for investors of...
Purchase Index Jumps 21% YoY, Modest Weekly Rise
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent higher than the same week one year ago." Note: the comparable...
Purchase Apps Jump 21% YoY After 12% Rise
Purchase apps up 21% year over year, coming off a 12% YoY print last week
Denver’s Housing Boom Outpaces Growth, Prices Drop
Building housing works. Denver has absorbed 150,000 new residents since 2010, nearly a 25% population increase, yet they built so much housing that prices are actually falling. https://t.co/jbeGFJEaas
Record Seller Surplus Signals Falling US Home Prices
US home prices increased 0.7% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
PulteGroup Hikes Incentives to 10.9%, $54.5K Bonus
Homebuilder PulteGroup pushes housing market incentives to 10.9%—that’s $54,500 on a $500,000 sale PulteGroup notes that its historically “normal” incentive range is between 3.0% and 3.5% Chart via @ResidentialClub
PulteGroup's Orders Reveal K‑Shaped Housing Market
K-shaped housing market is showing up directly in giant homebuilder PulteGroup's order book "Economic reports talk to the K-shaped economy... We saw this play out again in our first quarter results" - @pultehome CEO Ryan Marshall said on their earnings call
Quick 5‑Minute Deal Analysis: Yield >150 Bp Spread Wins
“How do I analyze a deal in 5 minutes?” BOE’s are extremely easy Basically what you’ll be doing is: 1. Multiplying market rents by the property’s unit count 2. Applying a vacancy factor to get total revenue 3. Multiplying the total revenue by...
Housing Supply Surges Past Population, Creating Accidental Landlords
Housing Unit Growth Far Outruns Population Growth: Vacant Units on the Market and the “Accidental Landlords.” These dynamics are now moving in the right direction. https://t.co/J2ThoTPrRD https://t.co/GVUspOBlLG
Home‑buying Sentiment Hits Multiyear High
The consumer sentiment index on the intent to buy a new #home was released today at a multiyear high. #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Half of US Metros See February Home Price Drops
🏘️📉"More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in February, signaling that the housing slowdown has broadened well beyond its Sun Belt origins" - S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index https://t.co/n3HIGUVg7v
Real Estate Leverage Lets $60k Control $300k Asset
$60,000 down on a $300,000 rental property controls a $300,000 asset. That same $60,000 in the stock market controls $60,000. The bank will never offer you that deal on a stock. They've been telling you which asset they trust more for hundreds of...
Metro Home Prices Diverge: Winners and Losers Nationwide
Chart: Year-over-year shift in home prices across the 50 largest metro area housing markets Where do you think home prices in your local housing market head next? Take the @_TurboHome-ResiClub Housing Sentiment Survey: https://t.co/x319m6NQxc
Cheap Chinese Property, But Capital Controls Trap Returns
I'd say "Now is the time to buy some cheap Chinese real estate", except you shouldn't. China has capital controls, meaning that even if prices go back up, you won't be able to get your money out of the country.
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Widens to 202 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.38% Same day last year: 6.82% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.36% Spread today: 202 bps
Strategic Low Pricing Fuels Two‑Week SF Contracts
Most properties get into contract within two weeks in San Francisco. The market is really hot right now, but this is also about properties being priced strategically low to generate multiple offers to get into contract quickly. Any thoughts? https://t.co/B899f4lZ1d
Retail Footprints Shrink as Tenants Favor Prime Sites
If you can get tired walking around it, it's probly too big. #Retail recalibrating. Tenants shrink their footprints. Demand concentrating on top-tier locations. #realestate #CRE #NAIFarbman #ICSC https://t.co/SwWQPgBj0G
Repeat‑sale Prices Rise Faster than Median Home Values
Home prices based on repeat-sales, meaning the same property that sold twice. Flying higher. This differs from median prices, which don't control for size, quality, or location. Repeat sales track how prices are changing over time, while median shows what...
U.S. Home Prices Edge Higher, Up 0.7
U.S. single-family home prices rose 0.3% month-over-month without seasonal adjustment between the January 2026 to February 2026 print Year-over-year: +0.7% Since March 2020: +52.1% Since 2022's peak: +6.2% Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/swLLdluSbF