Low‑rate Mortgages Shield Older Borrowers From Past Crises
A ton of foreclosures and bankruptcies vs a 30-year fixed debt Stock vs flow economics https://t.co/CUdOs4rE71
Sellers Outpace Buyers by 43%, Largest Gap Since 2013
"Nationally, sellers outnumber buyers by 43%—just shy of the largest gap in records dating back to 2013" -Redfin
REITs Surge in Relative Strength, Model Shows
Anyone else noticing REITs climbing the ranks of relative strength. One of my models @ETFreplay https://t.co/eybq3g61Kl
DR Horton’s Shift to 65% FHA/VA Increases Default Risk
DR Horton has adjusted its business model in an interesting way. Back in 2021/22, they were doing 40% of their business to FHA and VA borrowers. Now it's 65% of their business. FHA and VA loans typically have 0-5% downpayments and higher credit...
Crash Period Listings Triple Normal Seasonal Peaks
Just a friendly reminder that the new listings data was consistently around 250K-400K per week during the housing bubble crash years. Normally, during seasonal peak weeks, it's 80K-100K. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Turn One Home Into Multiple Income‑Generating ADUs
Co-living: looks great on paper, tough to manage. But what if you could add ADUs to a single-family home? More units, more doors. Generational living or rental income – that’s the investor opportunity. #RealEstateInvesting #ADU #PropertyManagement #InvestmentOpportunity #SingleFamilyHome RealEstateTips GenerationalLiving...
D.R. Horton Cuts Unsold Inventory 35% YoY
D.R. Horton is quickly shrinking its pileup of unsold completed inventory "Unsold homes are down 25% from December and 35% from a year ago" - Paul Romanowski, CEO of @DRHorton said during their April 21, 2026 earnings call Chart via @ResidentialClub
Banks Pay Homeowners To
Banks are now PAYING homeowners to move if they get rid of their mortgage? You can get a massive principal balance reduction if you give up a super low-rate mortgage and buy a replacement home at today's rates. The DREAM (Discount for...
Apartment Market Still Tight; 2026 Starts Forecast Slashed
NMHC on Apartments: Market Tightness "mostly unchanged" in April Survey Multifamily executives have lowered their expectations for total 2026 multifamily starts https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nmhc-on-apartments-market-tightness
Austin Housing Market Hits Stabilization, Near Bottom
#Austin housing market finally approaching bottom. CEO of Taylor Morrison 1Q26 earnings call: “Austin actually finally saw what I would say some stabilization in backlog, had the best sales month in quite some time, and cancelations seemed to stabilize.” Checks w/our analysis...
Current Housing Crisis Far Worse Than 2008 Stats
There are so many flippant comparisons to 2008 in today's housing market, but what do the stats show? I'm not sugarcoating the glaring affordability problem today. I just think sometimes people casually compare without really looking at the stats. More...
Smart Money Shifts to Growth Phases in Gurgaon
Where is smart money moving in Gurgaon? This chart maps capital flow across micro-markets (2010–2030). How to read it: X-axis = Market Cycle Progression (1 → 12) • Early → Growth → Peak → Late • It’s a cycle stage, not calendar time Y-axis = Capital Inflow Intensity...
Maryland's $48.5M Land Purchase Signals Suburban CRE Shift
Maryland paid $48.5M for 229 acres between Baltimore and D.C. — and no private developer stepped up first. When the state becomes the buyer of last resort on a large suburban asset, that’s a signal worth understanding. What’s your read...
LPs Prefer Lending at 12%, Not Borrowing
If you're considering a real estate strategy that would require you to use high octane bridge debt, consider this: Some potential LPs are likely to give you a version of the following feedback: "We don't *borrow* at 12%; we *lend* at 12%"
More Housing Built, Rents Fell Despite Developer Optimism
The key to falling rents is building more housing. And the key to building more housing is making developers believe rents will go up (which, in the case of Austin in 2022, they ended up being very wrong about).
Million Dollars Buys Less Space Worldwide, Except London, Melbourne
What does $1M buy you in prime real estate? Here's the space you get and how it's changed since 2020: 🇲🇨 Monaco: 16 m², 172 ft², -7% 🇭🇰 Hong Kong: 23 m², 248 ft², 0% ➡️ 🇨🇭 Geneva:...
Greenfield Builds More Large Apartments than Austin City
The Austin METRO built a ton of housing, not just the City. Yes the City built a lot ... but greenfield did even more. Here's a map of large (250+ unit) apartment buildings built in last 3 years The distribution of single family...
Low‑rate Lock‑ins Keep Home Prices From Crashing
Why aren't home prices crashing despite record low demand? 🏠📉 With 80% of owners locked into low rates and record equity, nobody is forced to sell. The market is stuck. Full breakdown below, including analysis of Redfin data 👇 https://t.co/KogY0JuwSe
Skip Risky Deals: Bridge Debt, Low DSCR, Thin Spreads
Here’s how to identify when a deal is too risky: Sometimes the deals you don’t do are more important than the deals you do This 40-unit deal that I underwrote a while ago had 4 major deal breakers 1. Having to take...
Century Communities' ARM Share Jumps to 30%
In 1Q26, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) accounted for ~30% of mortgage volume at Century Communities (the 9th-largest builder in the US), up a bit from 25% in 4Q25 and up massively from less than 5% in 1Q25. $CCS
Key Metrics to Evaluate Duplex Investment Viability
How to Tell if I Buy These Duplexes if They Would be a good investment
Austin's Housing: Supply Outpaces Demand, Not Shortage
It's not a demand issue in Austin. There's plenty of it. But even more supply than demand.
Mortgage Rates Peaked 2024, Now Easing Toward 2026
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate on April 22, by year 4.58% -> April 22, 2018 4.35% -> April 22, 2019 3.43% -> April 22, 2020 3.14% -> April 22, 2021 5.38% -> April 22, 2022 6.66% -> April 22, 2023 7.43% -> April 22, 2024 6.98% ->...
Great Lakes Cities Poised for Climate‑Driven Real Estate Boom
Wildfires and floods put $15 trillion in real estate at risk. Could the Great Lakes be America's last climate haven? 🌎 🔥 🌊 I test the theory using Redfin data to see if Detroit, Milwaukee, and Buffalo are primed for a...
Local Counties Show Diverging Days‑on‑market Trends
A slide I'm showing in a presentation this morning. Days on market for three local counties. https://t.co/3kanFGf5f5
Homebuyer Demand Plummets to Record Low, Spring Sales Slump
Reventure's homebuyer demand index hit a 9/100 on April 22nd, 2026. This figure is up slightly from last week, due to increased mortgage applications. But remains well below the pre-pandemic norms of a 50/100. And actually, today's demand readings are near the lowest...
Housing Leading Indicators Return to Positive Growth
With the MBA data this morning, all of my three favorite housing leading indicators have flipped back to positive YoY growth after war-related declines at the end of March. Will it hold? https://t.co/nPUuWGhIrg
Life‑Science Lab Real Estate Bounces Back, Investors Take Note
Life sciences lab real estate is on the rebound. What it means for investors @CNBC #realestate #biotech #realestateinvesting https://t.co/Ts7hAvMYed
Only Top 20% Can Afford Ontario, BC Homes
Average Incomes Aren't Good Enough To Buy A House In Ontario & BC Today: It's Just The Top 20% Of Incomes It was my honor to testify before the Finance Committee of Parliament for the 4th time & I got some...
Analyze Property Physically Before Trusting Excel Numbers
If you’re buying real estate solely based on numbers, you’re already losing Real estate isn’t just numbers in excel. It’s tangible Here’s how to actually analyze a property without making that costly mistake: First thing most investors do when they see...
DLF Sobha M
Which luxury developers actually performed the best from 2010–2025? Not by marketing. By returns, execution, and pricing power. Over the last 15 years, a clear pattern emerges: A few developers consistently created and preserved wealth Top performers (2010–2025): • DLF → Highest pricing power +...
Homebuilders Cut Spec Inventory, Boosting Margins
Homebuilders like $DHI and $TMHC reporting sharp, swift declines in unsold finished homes during earnings so far is good news for the sector. Excess spec inventory has been one of the biggest drags on margins in recent years.
Australia’s Tallest Build‑to‑Rent Timber Tower Gets Passivhaus Certification
"$330m Deal Clears Way for Australia’s Tallest Build-to-Rent Timber Tower - adaptive reuse, combining mass timber at scale with Passivhaus certification for the first time in Australia." #passivhaus #passivehouse https://t.co/LWTGVGpiC4 https://t.co/pIJyWjH0vc
Live Mastermind Delivers Real Deal, Debt & Capital Strategies
Had an amazing Elevate 2 Day Mastermind 💎 Two days… a room full of real business owners… great conversations. We broke down live deals across new construction and commercial, talked through how to structure debt in today’s market, and went deep on...
BLDR Undervalued: Massive Cash Flow, Housing Shortage Persists
Market is throwing out the baby with the bathwater on $BLDR. Down 28% in 2025, another 20% in Q1 2026. Yet $875MM in free cash flow, 10-13% FCF yield, and zero growth priced in. Structural US housing shortage isn't going away. Pitch by...
Housing Sector Buzz: Multiple Acquisitions Signal Rising Value
Worth noting the activity picking up in housing sector: $QXO acquires $BLD, $TOL acquires assets from Buffington Homes of Arkansas (it's 16th acquisition since 1995 btw) and $HD adds Mingledorff last month. Some see value in this industry.
Iran Conflict and Lower Rates Reshape Housing Market
How the Iran Conflict and Falling Rates Are Impacting the Housing Market https://t.co/9umONc87Wf via @YouTube
Simplify Deal Info to Attract Private Lenders
Read this if you’re trying to raise private capital for your next deal: Make all the information on the deal easily accessible. The more work a potential private lender has to do to get info the less chance you have of...
Pending Home Sales Plunge
Pending Home Sales Still in the Deepfreeze, Drop in the West & Midwest, Tick up in the South & Northeast . Down by 35% from 2021, by 30% from 2019, and by 31% from 2018. The housing market is in the 4th...
Plan Your CRE Exit From Day One
Smart CRE investors don’t just focus on the buy. They plan the exit from day one. • Timing the market cycle • Positioning for maximum value • Selling with demand, not hope Because in commercial real estate… profits are realized on the exit. #CommercialRealEstate #CREInvesting #CaliforniaCRE #RealEstateInvestors #investmentstrategy
US Homebuyer Demand Hits Record Low, Prices Must Drop
U.S. homebuyer demand just hit its lowest level ever for the month of March. According to NAR Pending Sales, contract signings fell yoy to an index of 73.7. This was the worst monthly reading for March ever, even lower than 2008-09 crash. Worst...
Rising Mortgage Rates Slash Home‑sale Growth Forecast to 4%
"Due to the upward trajectory of mortgage rates, NAR now expects existing-home sales to increase 4% this year, down from the previous projection [+14%]." https://t.co/BNUbt2WCK1
Sacramento Home Prices Dip Slightly—Check Local Comps
Home prices are down 1-2% from one year ago. Here are six metrics to help understand price change in the Sacramento region. My advice? Don't be rigid about these numbers. Neighborhood trends can vary, so look to the comps in...
March Pending Home Sales up 1.5% Despite YoY Dip
NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in March https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-1-5-increase-in-march Year-over-year: "1.1% decrease in pending home sales"
If Rent Controls Block Profits, Repurpose Land for Higher Returns
Long-term real estate ownership is basically speculating on the increasing value of land. If local government demonstrates to you that it will not allow you to monetize the growing value of land devoted to multifamily (for example, by imposing rent controls),...
Wall St Isn’t Behind Housing Crisis,
Investors bought 18% of homes in Q4 2025, but large institutional investors own less than 1% of all U.S. homes. So if it's not Wall St driving the housing affordability crisis, what is? In this video, I break down...
Secure Deal‑Specific Commitments, Skip Discretionary Fund Hassles
You think you want to raise a small discretionary RE fund, but you probably don't.* 1. Much harder to raise $$ without being able to point your investors to the specific assets you're going to buy, and 2. Your promote (the piece...
Capital Flow, Not Price, Drives Real Estate Cycles
Where is the real estate market right now? Most investors track price. This chart tracks where money moves before price. What you’re seeing is not pricing. It’s capital flow across the cycle. X-axis → Market cycle phase (1–12) Y-axis → Capital flow (money movement strength) The market...
Builders Halt After 120K Units, Permits Drop
This isn't a large amount of inventory in terms of scale, but once we reach 120K completed units, the builders don't push for more construction, so it's not surprising that housing permits and starts are low. https://t.co/YgX6DViH8r
DC Class A Office Prices Reset by $430M Deal
BXP sold its stake in Marriott’s Bethesda HQ at a $430M valuation. Trophy office. Metro-accessible. Single-tenant credit. That’s the product institutional buyers still want — and this deal just reset pricing expectations for D.C. metro Class A. What does your...