Individual Landlords Own Majority of U.S. Rental Units
New @nberpubs: "Towards a Methodology for Measuring Rental Property Ownership in the United States" https://t.co/GWlAblsl11 "we find that individual landlords own a large majority of rental units" https://t.co/9aSqWneGrf
Latham & Watkins Secures Over 10% of Houston Skyscraper
Big Law Expansion in Houston’s CBD Latham & Watkins just locked in another full floor at 811 Main St., adding 26,760 SF and bringing their total footprint to 103,330 SF. They’ll now lease over 10.5% of the 972k SF skyscraper. https://t.co/5HqEZvoWNR
Low Supply Prevents 2007‑Style Housing Crash
So much obsession over a housing crash, but supply is much different story today. I’m not sugarcoating. The reason why prices have not been able to collapse like 2007 is because we don’t have the supply to make that happen....
2012 Mortgage Rates Were 2‑3% Too
On the topic of rate lock-in, many forget (or don't know) that mortgage rates were in the 2s and 3s all the way back in 2012. Not just in 2020-2021. That means many of these loans are about half paid off, or...
Mortgage Defaults Surge Sixfold in Poorest Areas Amid Inflation
With rising inflation and interest rates, more Americans are defaulting on their mortgages. For the poorest communities, the rate has increased nearly sixfold. My @morningjoe Chart.
Zonda and ResiClub Present Housing Insights at BofA Symposium
Both the Zonda team and the ResiClub team were invited back this year to give housing presentations to institutional investors at the Bank of America Housing Symposium in NYC If you'd like the 42-chart ResiClub slideshow, shoot me an email: lance@resiclubanalytics.com...
AI Data Centers Clash With Homebuilders Over Land
America's largest homebuilder D.R. Horton recently moved into a small Ohio county. Just months later, a data center showed up next door and bought over 1,000 acres Welcome to the land-use collision happening in the housing market right now: AI data...
Buyer Activity Rises While Housing Supply Tightens
Big news. Buyer volume has been a little better in 2026 despite rates being up. Also, supply is shrinking since sellers have started to pull back a little. I have some cool stats today on my blog to show what...
Apartment Loan Originations Jump 46%, Signaling Debt‑Driven Inflection
Apartment loan originations in Q1 surged 46% year-over-year, making Q1'26 the 2nd-largest Q1 in history, behind only Q1'22. Lots of refinancing helping stabilize the sector. Still tough to raise equity and still mismatch between buyers and sellers on values, but the...
GTA Prices Drop 4.6% as Sales Slightly Rise
GTA House Prices Continue To Fall In May Even As Sales Of Homes Show A Slight Improvement Actual unit sales of homes increased 6.3% in May Yr on Yr even though prices just keep grinding down 4.6% Yr on Yr Sales are...
U.S. Home Prices Set to Surge 5% by 2027
Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) expects U.S. home prices to increase 5.3% year over year by April 2027. This is a massive jump from the current 0.3% YoY gain. Despite 69 of the 100 largest metros currently overvalued, meaning their home prices exceed long-term...
AI, Brand, Capital Fuel Uneven Office Leasing Surge
The ABCs of office leasing’s rising demand US office leasing surged ~25% YoY in Q1, approaching 120M sq ft. The recovery is highly uneven, driven by three sharp market realities: (A) Artificial Intelligence: AI firms are fueling major demand in SF and...
Largest Units, Lowest Rent: Hollywood East Upside
Just Listed: Hollywood East is a 247-unit, core-plus, 15-story multifamily building built in 2021, fronting Hollywood Blvd—walking distance from Arts Park at Young Circle. *The property offers the largest average unit size (1,049 SF) in the Hollywood market* at the...
Institutional Capital Fuels $151.4M Miami Multifamily Deal
A newly delivered Miami multifamily community just traded for $151.4M. RPM Living and Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management acquired Biscayne Shores, a 380-unit waterfront apartment community completed in 2024 along Biscayne Boulevard in North Miami. The property sits between Aventura and Downtown...
April Delinquency Rates Slip Slightly for Fannie, Freddie
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in April Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Decreased in April https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-962
Housing Crisis Stems From Developer Shortage and Risk Aversion
A significant portion of the housing crisis is a lack of developers. Not many people are willing to take the risk in development ... and even fewer investors are willing to take risk with new managers.
Avoid Using Retirement Funds for Condo Investment
My fellow senior colleague asked me opinion on taking out one third of his kwsp money to buy a one million condo in klang valley which will give him 5k/month rental. Thats like a 6 percent return on his capital which...
Spring 2026 Rents Show Steadier Momentum Than 2025
Apartment rents aren't exactly popping, but they're showing more consistent momentum here in spring 2026 than they did in spring 2025. Last year, the leasing season started strong and then fizzled out. This year shows more consistency. Data below from Apartment List,...
Freddie Mac Index Up 1.4%
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 1.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 17% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-dd5
LA Loses Lawsuit, Must Approve Venice Affordable Housing
The city of Los Angeles lost a lawsuit over a megacontroversial affordable housing project its been trying to block in Venice this week. Last fall, the state threatened to pull the city's zoning authority if it didn't approve the development....
Homebuilding Struggles to Achieve True Economies of Scale
This by @_brianpotter is very good: Where Are the Economies of Scale in Homebuilding? https://t.co/pn5v6uJmib https://t.co/8lZEHdHBds
Homebuilders Exploit Forward‑Commitment Loophole to Boost Concessions
Over 40% of sales recently by big homebuilders have a combination of seller concessions plus permanent buydown cost in excess of 6% How do they do it when there are caps on how much a seller can contribute toward closing costs? Answer:...
Apartment Ownership Stays Fragmented, While Management Consolidates Rapidly
Here's a fascinating trend getting scant attention: Apartment ownership is as fragmented as ever, but MANAGEMENT is increasingly consolidating. The narratives around the AvalonBay/Equity merger really miss this point. There's always been M&A, and yet apartment ownership remains very accessible to...
New Home Sales Slip, Prices Drop 15% From Peak
New Home Sales Decrease to 622,000 Annual Rate in April Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-decrease-to-622000
Mortgage Rates May Hit 7%—Or Have Already Peaked
This is the scenario where I see mortgage rates hitting 7% again. But if it doesn't happen, it might mean rates have already peaked.
CoStar Poised to Acquire Homebuilding Data Firm Zonda
The rumor over the past year+ was that homebuilding data giant Zonda was looking for a buyer Given the ambitions of CoStar—a CRE data giant—them being the buyer isn’t too surprising On the listings side (https://t.co/Xn1gdEwei8), CoStar has been pushing further into...
Higher 70s Rates Spurred Faster Price Gains than 2020s
Home prices rose faster from 1977 to 1979 when mortgage rates went from 8%-13% than 2020-2022 when we had sub 4% https://t.co/R3HL21xwAW
Guangzhou State Firm to Purchase Resale Homes Directly
1/5 Caixin: "Guangzhou has unveiled a plan for a state-owned housing company to buy secondhand homes directly from individual owners, extending government support for China’s struggling property market into the resale segment." https://t.co/XWzgzg7UAw
Optimistic Hormuz Outlook Fuels Volatility, Hurts Mortgages
Redfin Chief Economist explains how the overly optimistic narrative about the Strait of Hormuz reopening creates volatility, which is bad for mortgage rates, which is bad for the housing market.
US Home Prices Slow to 0.7% Growth Amid Seller Surplus
US home prices increased 0.7% over the last year, the lowest growth rate since June 2023. Why is price appreciation moderating? More sellers than buyers. Video: https://t.co/GD9q22BMbq
Housing Prices Slip Below 2022 Peaks, Rent Gap Widens
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.7% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 10.3% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-37
Affordable U.S. Home Listings Rise to One-Third
"One-third (32.9%) of U.S. home listings were affordable to someone earning the median income in April, up from 28.7% a year earlier." -Redfin
Rental Giants Merge to Harness Data‑Driven AI Flywheel
MyPOV: Two apartment rental giants merge, aim to leverage data, AI flywheel https://t.co/car9KCgKmO The $52 billion merger of two apartment rental companies is also a bet that the combined company can leverage a data flywheel and an AI joint venture. @AvalonBay...
Over Half US Markets Record Housing Price Declines
"More than half of the 20 major U.S. housing markets recorded year-over-year price declines in March, reflecting a broadening and deepening housing slowdown. ... With consumer inflation accelerating to roughly 3.3% in March, U.S. home values have now fallen in...
Coconut Grove Condo Flips 2.6× in One Year
A 1963 Coconut Grove condo building just became a $45.5M development play. El-Ad Group acquired the former Chateau Grove Condominium site at 3265 Virginia Street — a nearly 1-acre property made up of 25 residential units in the heart of Coconut...
Walkable Cheap Homes Exist, but Safety and Schools Deter Buyers
There are millions of inexpensive homes that already exist in "walkable" neighborhoods This 2000sf home is $250k in Philadelphia. 4 blocks from major subway. The problem is that the safety & schools of neighborhood are such that very few people with...
NYC Mayor Grants One‑time Rent Hike to Distressed Landlords
JUST IN: NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani allows "distressed landlords" a one time rent increase before upcoming rent freeze
Housing Costs Drop to 42% of Income, Still Steep
WSJ: “Buyers now allocate 42% of their incomes to housing costs, according to the [US] Burns Affordability Index, which is calculated based on a 10% down payment on a median-priced existing home. This is still extremely unaffordable, but better than...
Bipartisan Wall Street Housing Limits Won’t Boost Home Supply
Bipartisan majorities in both chambers of Congress have voted in favor of restricting Wall Street’s footprint in the housing market But the policy will likely do little to increase the availability of housing for American families via @hapgoodreports https://t.co/XlksOHgCHn
Hovnanian's Sales Incentives Surge to 12% by 2026
Sales incentives rate for public homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises: Q2 2022 --> 2.5% Q2 2023 --> 9.3% Q2 2024 --> 8.1% Q2 2025 --> 10.5% Q2 2026 --> 11.9%
Higher Rates Didn't Curb New Listings, Data Shows
New listings data that people use for the mortgage rate lockdown premise were lower in 2021, when rates were at 3%, than in the last two years, when rates were above 6%. https://t.co/O7Idz2TTNq
Prop 33 Failed, Averting Catastrophic Vacancy Control
A little recent history lesson for LA YIMBYs: In October '24, Nithya Raman was one of the key supporters of Prop 33, which would have allowed cities across California to impose vacancy control on apartment buildings, including on newly constructed apartment...
Wiener Delivers Housing Reform; Chakrabarti Flops
Over the past decade, Wiener was the hardest working member of the Senate on ending the California housing shortage, passing good reform over stiff opposition. Over the same period, Chakrabarti was a self-promoting charlatan who never spent more than a...
Buyers Choose Rate Buydowns Over Price Cuts for Lower Payments
People keep saying mortgage rates aren't too high, that home prices are. But when given the choice, a home buyer today who receives seller concessions will likely pay full price and just buy down the rate. Why? Because it lowers...
Match Retail Space Mission: Convenience or Discovery
The great divide in retail real estate: Convenience vs. Discovery. A location optimized for one will fail at the other. Understanding a property's core mission is now the most critical factor for both landlords and tenants. As a broker, I specialize...
Standardized Modeling Reveals 7% Yield, Varied Risks
A little more context: Via ReSeed, the platform some partners and I started ~3 yrs ago, I am now seeing sub-institutional multifamily and industrial deal-flow across like 15-20 markets. We have standardized the modeling and underwriting assumptions (allowing for regional variation supported...
Austin, Dallas, Tampa Lead Metro Housing Declines; Milwaukee Rises
Among the 50 largest metro area housing markets... DOWN the most YoY: -6.0% -> Austin, TX -3.3% -> Dallas, TX -3.2% -> Tampa, FL UP the most YoY: +5.3% -> Milwaukee, WI +5.2% -> Hartford, CT +4.8% -> Buffalo, NY Table via @ResidentialClub
KB Home Expands Into Fast‑growing Atlanta Market
KB Home—America's 7th largest homebuilder—to enter the Atlanta housing market Builders go where population is rising, land is available to entitle, and the regulatory and demand environment makes it feasible to build at prices the market can absorb https://t.co/MIOQgDjpvw
Mortgage Rates Surge From Historic Lows to 2025 High
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.51% (highest since Aug 2025) Video: https://t.co/GD9q22Ck0Y
BTR Units Mostly Apartment‑style, some with Small Yards
Fantastic and thorough article on BTR by @_brianpotter I particularly appreciated the breakdown of the different *kinds* of units that are Built-To-Rent. Most of them are ~essentially apartments, sometimes with small yards https://t.co/FppH1yRySt