Higher Rates Demand ~30% Home Price Drop
People say home prices must FALL and that mortgage rates are OK where they stand. Sure, but here's an example of how much they'd need to fall... A mortgage payment is $2,021.50 per month on a $450k home w/ a 3.75% rate and 3% down. To get the same payment at a rate of 6.75%, the price needs to be $321,311. That's a ~30% drop.
Redfin Rebounds From Record Lows to Four-Year Sales High
Redfin went from the lowest demand ever, the highest number of sellers ever, and the highest cancelation rates ever to a four-year high in pending sales within a few weeks 🤔😏 I have questions. https://t.co/5Ijqf0Sdfu
AI Boom Shifts: SF Prices Surge, Oakland Buyers Gain
The Bay Area housing market LEFT: Home price shift between spring 2024 to spring 2025 RIGHT: Home price shift between spring 2025 to spring 2026 Spillover from the AI Boom into housing was a little stronger a year ago in San Jose than...
Mortgage Rate Lockdown Hype over, Data Shows
@GRoditiD, whose job is to look at this stuff, has the coupon data on mortgages, so it's a bit unfair that we both talk about the mortgage rate lockdown being over hyped; he has the best Charts on this https://t.co/osWg5Co0Ly
Florida Inventory Dip Milder than 2008, Market Shifts
We have to be mindful of the inventory decline in Florida, since it isn't worse than 2008; it needs context. It's working from an elevated level. In general, the housing market shifted mid-June nationally & here as well. https://t.co/9kKIjLgaFe
Housing Bubble Crash Delayed Until 2027; Heed Experts
Now that we have pushed the housing bubble crash to 2027. Hopefully, by now, you all know who to listen to on this subject matter. Or you can stay in the doom porn trash world until death and the afterlife
Turnover Shifts Post‑2008
You're correct with housing tenure at 11 years, and even younger households running near 8 years. The turnover data, which changed after 2008, has been a bigger variable not only post 2020 but from 2010-2019 as well
Low 2021 Mortgage Rates Didn't Spur More Listings
To my point: In 2021, when mortgage rates were around 3% or slightly lower, people expected a significant increase in new listings. However, the number of new listings in 2021 was actually lower than in the pre-COVID era during the...
Louisville's $1M Homes Fly Off Market, Outpacing Major Cities
JUST IN: Louisville is a surprising luxury market where $1 million homes sell quickly and it's less constrained than Chicago, New York, or L.A.
Restricting Developers Undermines Housing as a Human Right
If housing is a human right, restricting developers is an infringement on the human rights of your constituents. You’re right that this is a policy failure. But if congress members like you can’t understand why policy has failed, there’s little...
Housing Tenure Doubled Post‑Covid Despite Brief Low‑rate Period
Housing tenure is now 11-13 years, doubling to 10 years before Covid even hit us. We had sub-3% rates for roughly a year, so it's only one calendar year of sales with that rate level that is supposedly holding housing...
Higher Mortgage Rates Lift Housing Inventory Despite Lower Demand
No lower rates drove inventory lower, higher rates, and less mortgage demand pushed inventory higher 2014 rates went up, inventory rose, and in 2022 and on Inventory has been rising since the lows of 2022 as rates rose https://t.co/P0s2EF33ME
50% Price Crash Predicted for 2026 Despite Stable Rates
The best debate all year was a 50% price crash in 2026, recorded on YouTube, because rates would go to 5.5% this year, and there were no distress sales Link is below, I kid you not, we recorded the entire...
Over 40% of U.S. Homes Mortgage‑free, Rural Areas Top 60%
Nationally, around 40% of owner-occupied homes are mortgage-free. In some rural pockets of the country, that mortgage-free share exceeds 50%. In some places, it’s even above 60%. via ResiClub Terminal
Prioritize People Over Developers to Solve Housing Crisis
What would “choosing people over developers” look like in practice and how would that lead to more housing?
City Core Housing Tightens, Exurbs See Inventory Rise
Here's what to know about the Texas housing market in 2026: Inventory of homes in Dallas and Austin is now FEWER than last year. That's driven by better demand closer in to the cities. The further exurbs like Prosper (also Houston...
Dave Ramsey Warns: Avoid Home Equity Loans
Financial guru Dave Ramsey is adamant about avoiding debt, so it’s no surprise to hear that he’s not a fan of home equity loans. https://t.co/K3HMRpmev0
Housing Rarely Crashes; Liquidity Needs Sustained Distress
We have had many recessions post-WWII. We only had one national nominal home price crash in over 80 years. Housing isn't a liquid sector of our economy unless you have high levels of distressed sales as a % of total...
Call for Live Debate on Housing Bubble Predictions
You talk too much for someone who keeps saying housing will have a bubble mean crash. Let's see how you do live in front of everyone with your real name and written forecasts Time to ball up Challenge live...
Housing Affordability Rises, yet Mortgage Rates Stay Above 5.75%
Purchase apps and weekly pending home sales are at multi-year highs last week, low base-effect growth. Housing is slowly getting more affordable with time, as long as wages outpace prices. Extremely hard to get mortgage rates under 5.75% with a...
Monthly Airbnb Rentals Are Residential, Not Hotel-Like
Monthly is VERY different from by the night And in fact, that’s what most restrictions are Airbnbs nightly = Hotels Airbnbs Monthly = Residential
MBS Buying May Not Significantly Lower Mortgage Rates
I wonder if these MBS purchases have kept mortgage rates lower than they otherwise would be. Would the 30-year fixed be ~6.75% today instead? Problem is other administration policies, e.g. tariffs, war, etc. basically absorb and offset any of the benefit.
Storage Rentals Double to Record Pace This May
We are renting storage units at record pace. 386 units rented in the first 8 days of May. 48.25 units per day. Same period last year: 206 rentals for 25.75 per day.
New U.S. Homes Still Larger than Past Decades
Are houses getting smaller or bigger? Today, builders are delivering new single-family houses around 2,150 SF. This is down 14% in size from the "McMansion peak" of 2015. However, it is still above 2009 downturn lows, and about 24% bigger than back in...
Last Year's Dull Market Skews Upcoming Stats Comparisons
Similar to one year ago? Yes. Some preliminary stats. I'll have finalized stats next week (for 12 counties). The market got really dull last year, and some stats in coming months will look more competitive compared to last year. In...
America’s Debt Crisis Peaks: Credit, Mortgage, and National Liabilities
JUST IN: US credit card debt hit record high of $1.33 trillion. And foreclosure filings jump to 6-year high due to rising insurance, property taxes, and debt strain on homeowners. Meanwhile… US Household Debt = All time high US National Debt = All time...
Mumbai Homes Require Decades of Income, Not Affordability
A Mumbai couple earns ₹40L a year but a 2BHK costs ₹3Cr. After tax, school fees & EMIs, it takes 15–20 years to own it. In New York, a similar 2BHK is ₹4.75Cr – but higher incomes mean 5–6 years of...
Tie Budget Growth to Increases in Regulated Rents
This is a good idea. Hold local and state budget growth to the rise in regulated rents.
Aging Demographics Boost Senior Housing; DHC Stock Buy
Macro: aging demographics support senior housing. Key: DHC Q1 SHOP NOI +160bp, normalized FFO +131% YoY, occupancy +110bp; revenue miss. Risks: 7.8x leverage, 2028 maturities. Trade: buy on weakness to $7.50 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
AI Prompt Suggests Short‑Term Rentals in Rochmn Market
First time I have heard it! I asked the lead that called “what has you interested in the #rochmn market ?” He responded with “It’s a AI PROMPTED answer that told me your market was a good place to invest...
Americans Hold More Wealth in Stocks Than Real Estate
Ruchir Sharma, Chairman of Rockefeller International, on Americans’ overexposure in the equity market: “America is the only country where people have more of their wealth in the stock market than in the property market.” https://t.co/fdqVJtKVNJ
California Candidates Debate Housing Affordability, Hopeful for Solutions
Great California housing conversation everyone, sounds like the gubernatorial candidates have lots of ideas about the most pressing affordability issue in the state. Surely, we'll find a way to turn the corner on this. [Touches earpiece]: Oh
Only a Few Candidates Show Real Housing Expertise
That was a very substantive housing conversation. Porter, Mahan, Steyer, probably in that order, clearly understood what they're talking about. Villaraigosa sounded like he prepped for a debate. Becerra, especially early on, sounded like he released his housing plan yesterday
New Home Prices Drop 16%, Boosting Buyer Power
Some encouraging signals are coming out of the new home building market. The median sale price for a new house fell to $387k in March 2026. This is now down 16% from the 2022 peak. Some people think it's all due to builders...
AI Says Housing Overhaul Is America’s Ultimate Fix
The most intelligent AI was asked to name a single policy that would “fix everything” in America. It’s top three ideas were about housing and construction.
New‑build Inventory Growth Halts After Incentive Spree
Homebuilders spent much of the past year upping incentives, cutting specs, and slowing starts in the weakest Sun Belt markets Now... at least for the time being... unsold completed new-build inventory has stopped surging My latest for @ResidentialClub: https://t.co/qDagkyvXFR
Leftist Policies, Not Markets, Drive Housing Shortage
NIMBY Leftists never believe that it was their own terrible anti-market policies that created housing shortages. The subsidized demand, the clamped supply, the vilification of landlords and housing builders. Of course they hate the markets. We should vote them all...
Deals Require Action, Not Luck—Use DealMachine
I have used @dealmachineapp to get several deals over the years. Deals won’t just fall in your lap… go make them happen. Follow @chasecalhoun.realestate for more on build-to-rent and real estate investing. #realestate #investmentproperty #buildtorent
Housing Inventory Set to Turn Negative YoY Amid UFO Buzz
In honor of the #UFO information release and the fact that #housing inventory is about to go negative year over year. 👽👾 #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
San Francisco Sees 89% of April Sales Exceed List Price
Is there any other location in the country with stats like this? 89% of sales in April in San Francisco sold above their original list price. https://t.co/IQ7hlaAeWL
Housing Market Tracker Shows Inventory Near Negative YoY
It was another positive week for the housing market tracker, with inventory on the verge of going negative year over year. More updates on this will be provided over the weekend.
Regulation, Not Airbnb, Drives Western Housing Shortages
"The housing crisis in the United States (and in France, and everywhere in the West) has a single cause, perfectly documented by 60 years of economic literature: the shortage of supply, created by public regulation." This is 100% accurate. In fact,...
LA Institutional Apathy Boosts SoCal Apartment Demand
Camden found a buyer for its SoCal apartment portfolio (most of which is Orange County or San Diego), and industry gossip is it's at aggressive price. More broadly: It seems the growing institutional disinterest in L.A. is driving increased interest in...
Real South Philadelphia Project Confirmed with Visual Proof
In case it wasn't clear ... this is a REAL project in South Philadelphia https://t.co/zOt3tE1fu9 https://t.co/K9dWSRlKNl
Even Iconic Skyscrapers Pay Massive Land Rent
The Chrysler Building pays $32.5M / year to rent the land beneath it. There's a lesson here I think. https://t.co/IY1LC0BiHT
Market Discounts High Oil, Hot Jobs; Rates Stay Firm
It has become obvious now that the market is looking through both high oil prices and the recent hot jobs reports. They're both seen as temporary and the broader view is labor gets worse and oil comes down. That's why mortgage rates...
Apartment REITs Reveal Merger Rumors and Rent Rebound
The apartment REITs wrapped up earnings calls, and just wrote up 8 takeaways -- the rumored merger, renter financial health, the potential rent rebound, market conditions across the country, stock buybacks, new regulatory risks, etc. https://t.co/I7IyydGpMM
Short Sales Surge 1,000% but only 30 More
There has been a 1,000% increase in short sales in the Sacramento region since 2022. Yes, we are seeing an increase, but let's be careful about percentages when dealing with small numbers. What that means is there were 3 in...
2026 MLS Sales Financing Shows Surprising Shift to Cash
Here’s a breakdown of reported financing in MLS sales so far in 2026 in the entire region. What stands out to you? https://t.co/1DBuGVwRSM
Shorewood Buys Ex‑Walgreens Site for $13M Mixed‑Use Plan
#Shorewood sees mixed-use future for ex-#Walgreens #Chicagoland campus, paying $13M for the 37.5 acres. Seller #Orion demolished 6 bldgs to make it more appealing. #realestate #IL #CRE #REIT #DeerfieldIL https://t.co/rIc6rgjE0M