The Investment Excitement Ratio
Stephen Clapham introduces the Investment Excitement Ratio (IER), a composite metric that blends valuation multiples, earnings concentration, and capital‑expenditure intensity. The framework flags periods when cheap valuations, high earnings concentration, and low capex converge, historically preceding market bubbles. Clapham shows current IER readings are comparable to those seen during the late‑1990s tech boom and the 2008 housing surge. He argues the ratio can help investors gauge systemic risk before price corrections materialize.
Marvell (MRVL) Initiated Buy as AI Semiconductor Growth Accelerates
Erste Group initiated coverage of Marvell Technology with a Buy rating, highlighting a doubling of net profit over the past five quarters and a 19% return on equity. The firm cited Marvell’s leadership in high‑performance analog, optical DSP and AI‑focused...
Emerging Market Stock Valuations
A recent analysis shows emerging market (EM) equities are trading at historically low cyclically‑adjusted price‑to‑earnings (CAPE) multiples compared with both their own history and the MSCI USA index. The valuation gap is evident across a broad set of EM countries,...
Innovotech ($IOT.V) FINS Review
Innovotech Inc. (IOT.V) remains a tiny picocap with a $9.5 million market valuation, trading in the life‑sciences services niche. The stock has risen 30% over the past year but is down roughly 50% from its July highs, leaving its valuation virtually...
Piper Sandler Sees “Two Halves” In Mortgage Market, Lowers Rithm Capital (RITM)
Piper Sandler lowered its price target on Rithm Capital (RITM) to $14 from $15 while maintaining an Overweight rating. The firm described the first quarter as a “two halves” mortgage market: rates slipped to 5.98% before climbing back to about...
TD Cowen Lowers Kraft Heinz (KHC) as Food Sector Faces Cost Pressures
TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow lowered Kraft Heinz's price target to $20 from $24 and kept a Hold rating, citing rising input costs from the Iran conflict and limited pricing power. The firm also trimmed earnings forecasts for several large‑cap...
Citi Boosts Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Price Target, Sees Discipline in E&Ps
Citi analyst Paul Diamond raised Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) price target to $39 from $34, keeping a Buy rating, after updating its small‑cap exploration and production models to reflect higher oil and gas price forecasts. The firm highlighted robust...
Erste Group Sees Profit Growth Ahead, Upgrades Verizon (VZ) to Buy
Erste Group upgraded Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) to a Buy rating, highlighting the carrier’s profitability that exceeds most competitors. The analyst expects Verizon’s operating profit to rise over the next two years. A federal judge recently issued a preliminary injunction blocking...
The Down Years
The piece reviews how the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 have fared during down years, contrasting the volatile 2000‑2008 period with the smoother post‑2009 bull market. Since 2009 the S&P 500 has closed the calendar year in the red only twice in...
"Never Sell" Episode: AI Doom, Veeva, Research and Writing
The latest “Never Sell” podcast episode explores three intertwined themes: the growing investor fascination with AI‑doom scenarios, why biotech‑software leader Veeva Systems appears insulated from disruptive AI forces, and a fresh perspective on investment research that favors a judge‑like stance...
Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI): Deep Value Speciality Retailer
Bath & Body Works (BBWI) trades at a deep‑value discount, with an Intrinsic Value to Price (IV/P) ratio of 1.30 and an Acquirer’s Multiple of 6.70. The specialty retailer generates $865 million of free cash flow, supporting debt service, share repurchases,...
Portfolio Review | March 2026 (+2%, +40% YTD)
In March 2026 the equity market experienced a sharp decline driven by political uncertainty surrounding former President Trump’s policy legacy. The sell‑off sparked a wave of bearish sentiment that even inspired meme‑driven commentary on social platforms. Despite the broader downturn,...
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[NEW] Cliff Note #138: An Aerospace Supplier with a Decade of Aircraft Backlogs and a Generational Defence Spending Surge
A leading aerospace parts supplier that serves Boeing, Airbus and major defense primes is riding a dual tailwind of a ten‑year, roughly 15,000‑aircraft backlog and a resurgence in global defence spending as NATO allies pledge 3.5% of GDP. Gross margins...
SpaceX IPO at $1.75 Trillion... Can It Be Justified?
SpaceX is reportedly preparing an initial public offering that would value the company at roughly $1.75 trillion, dwarfing any previous aerospace listing. The filing, disclosed by Reuters, suggests the rocket maker aims to raise billions to accelerate Starship development and its...
Morgan Stanley Defends Memory Stocks Including Sandisk Corporation (SNDK)
Morgan Stanley issued a research note on March 26 defending memory stocks, spotlighting Sandisk Corp (NASDAQ:SNDK). The firm raised Sandisk's price target from $483 to $690 and kept a Buy rating, despite a 20.2% share decline since March 19. Analysts...
William Blair Downgrades Adobe (ADBE) to Market Perform, Lowers PT
William Blair analyst Arjun Bhatia downgraded Adobe (ADBE) to Market Perform on March 26, cutting the price target from $423 to $237. The downgrade reflects growing competitive pressure in Adobe’s Creative Cloud segment from fast‑growing rivals such as Figma and...
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG): Billionaire Ray Dalio Likes This Travel Company
Bridgewater Associates, led by billionaire Ray Dalio, has dramatically increased its stake in Booking Holdings, now owning over 2 million shares after a 100% jump in Q1 2025. The travel giant is preparing a 25‑for‑1 stock split on April 6 2026, which could...
Unilever (UL) Supported by Expected Volume Growth Recovery
Unilever (UL) is flagged as an oversold European stock, prompting TD Cowen to reiterate its Buy rating with a price target of £58 (about $73). The firm expects the market to recognize a rebound in volume growth, projecting a modest 2%...
SAP SE (SAP) Downgraded on Slowing Cloud Backlog Growth
JPMorgan downgraded SAP SE from Overweight to Neutral on March 24, citing a slowdown in the company’s current cloud backlog and growing strategic uncertainty. The downgrade reflects a shift from earlier optimism about accelerating revenue and margin expansion. Analysts highlighted...
Monthly Portfolio Update - The Tempest Is Here
The author’s monthly portfolio update warns that equity markets are poised for a 10% consolidation to reach five‑year valuation averages, with a 30% drop needed for the 20‑year mean. Persistent rate‑hike threats, geopolitical tension, and a cooling labor market are...
Kingsway: A Different Type of Serial Acquirer
Kingsway Financial Services has launched a publicly‑traded vehicle that mimics the high‑return search‑fund model, allowing retail and institutional investors to participate in serial acquisitions. The firm targets lower‑middle‑market companies, buying them outright or taking controlling stakes, then applying operational expertise...
Q1 2026 Portfolio Update
The Science of Hitting reports that the S&P 500 slipped nearly 5% in Q1 2026, with the entire decline confined to March. Investors remain wary amid lingering macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. The blog notes a similar Q1 dip in 2025, which...
Nano-Cap SaaS Gem: Headwinds, Green Shoots, and the Private Equity Playbook
The micro‑cap SaaS company posted FY2025 results that mix balance‑sheet strength with top‑line weakness. An at‑the‑market offering wiped out legacy debt, leaving the firm with zero debt and an undrawn credit line. Revenue fell year‑over‑year as its volatile segment faced...
Improving CAPE, One Stock at a Time
The cyclically‑adjusted price‑to‑earnings (CAPE) ratio, long‑standing in market forecasting, has underperformed in the United States for roughly the past 15 years despite success elsewhere. Researchers Rui Ma and colleagues propose recalculating CAPE at the individual stock level and then aggregating by...
Thu 2 Apr 2026 - Paul Scott's Small/Mid Cap Value Report
Paul Scott’s Small/Mid‑Cap Value Report spotlights six equities—Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY), SSE, MCB, AOM, SDY and TRCS—while drilling deeper into SDY and MCB as primary value candidates. The analysis emphasizes their low price‑to‑earnings multiples, solid dividend yields, and resilient cash...
Nelson Peltz Portfolio Analysis: Key Positions, Concentration & Trian Strategy
Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management disclosed a roughly $4.0 billion equity portfolio that remains extremely concentrated, with the top ten holdings accounting for essentially 100% of assets. Janus Henderson and General Electric together represent about 70% of the fund’s value, while...
Investment Versus Speculation
The piece draws a clear line between investments—assets that generate regular income such as dividends, interest, or rent—and speculation, which relies solely on future price appreciation. It argues that income streams enable compounding and lower portfolio volatility, while speculative holdings...
Is This Market Leader Finally Worth a Look Again?
The blog revisits a market‑leader stock featured on the author’s 26 Stocks to Watch for 2026 list, questioning whether it has finally become a viable investment. Recent earnings beat and renewed analyst coverage suggest the company may have turned a corner. Valuation...
Barron’s: “Target and 5 More ‘Dividend Aristocrats’ to Own Now:
DataTrek Research reports that the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index outperformed the broader S&P 500 by 13.9 percentage points over the last 100 trading days, while the S&P 500 itself declined 6.9% in the same window. The note highlights that...
Inc Mag: “The Economy’s Biggest Strength Has Turned Into a Confusing Risk”
DataTrek co‑founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe warn that the prevailing belief in a recession‑proof U.S. economy is becoming a hidden risk. They argue that capital markets—from Treasuries to small‑cap stocks—are built on the assumption of endless growth, which breeds...
Free Portfolio Update: Recap of Q1 2026
M. V. Cunha released his Q1 2026 portfolio recap, showing a year‑to‑date return of –1.5% that still outperformed the S&P 500’s –4.4% decline. Since inception in 2024 the portfolio has generated a 432.4% gain versus the market’s 40.6% rise. Key moves included...
TODAY: Major Deregulation Wave – Is Your Portfolio Ready?
Regulators announced a sweeping deregulation wave, rolling back dozens of rules across energy, finance and other industries in a single day. The move could free up trillions of dollars in compliance costs, instantly boosting corporate efficiency and profit margins. Early...
💰 WARREN BUFFETT'S 8 RULES THAT BUILT $150 BILLION (Most People Ignore ALL of Them — Don't Be that Person)
Warren Buffett attributes his $150 billion fortune to eight disciplined investment rules, from protecting capital to investing in oneself. The core principles emphasize avoiding losses, staying within a circle of competence, and buying quality businesses at a margin of safety. Buffett’s...
What Do You Do With Microsoft?
Microsoft’s shares have slumped more than 26% year‑to‑date, a 33% drop from the all‑time high, making it the poorest performer among the Magnificent Seven in 2026. The latest quarter marked the company’s worst results since the 2008 financial crisis and...
Warren Buffett on Markets, Apple, and Why He’s Holding Cash
Warren Buffett told Squawk Pod that he still can’t predict market direction and relies on business fundamentals instead. He emphasized that Berkshire’s massive cash reserves won’t be rushed into equities after the recent modest correction, as no compelling valuations have...
This Week’s Deep-Value Landscape: Acquirer’s Multiple Large-Cap Screen
The Acquirer’s Multiple® large‑cap screen highlights a stark valuation gap, with cash‑rich companies in energy, financials, housing and mature franchises trading at compressed multiples. While AI‑driven growth stocks dominate market sentiment, these deep‑value names deliver strong operating earnings, free cash...
POET Technologies Q4 2025: Reading Past the Headline Loss
POET Technologies reported a Q4 2025 net loss of $42.7 million on $341 k revenue, yet its stock jumped 16.9% to $5.94 after the release. The loss was dominated by a $30.6 million non‑cash fair‑value adjustment on CAD‑denominated warrants and a $6.85 million accounting...
POET Technologies Q4 2025: Reading Past the Headline Loss
POET Technologies posted a Q4 2025 net loss of $42.7 million against $341 k of revenue, but cash outflow was only $11.6 million. The loss was dominated by a $30.6 million non‑cash warrant fair‑value adjustment and a $6.85 million acquisition charge. With $430 million in cash,...
IREN 2026 Forecast Update - Mar 31, 2026
The research team released its original 2026 IREN forecast on January 25, prompting the stock to climb from the low‑mid $50s into the low‑mid $60s. Since that release, IREN’s deeper push into artificial‑intelligence infrastructure has highlighted significant scale and cost considerations....
Where Is Our Real Mining Plan? – by Geoff Russ (Resource Works – March 30, 2026)
Canada’s mining sector remains hamstrung by investor skepticism despite abundant critical mineral resources. Exploration spending has plateaued around $3.1 billion USD from 2023 through 2025, while total mining investment dropped to roughly $9.8 billion USD in 2024, down from $11.3 billion USD a...
Melius Highlights FCF While Reiterating Buy on Apple
Melius analysts highlighted Apple’s strong free cash flow as a key valuation driver and reiterated a buy recommendation. The firm noted Apple’s upcoming product wave—including the iPhone 17e, refreshed iPad Air, new MacBook Air and Pro, Studio Displays, MacBook Neo,...
"We're Now In The Middle Of A Market Correction" Admits Longtime Wall Street Bull | Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni, long‑time bullish economist, has revised his outlook after the Iran‑related oil shock, calling the market a correction and raising U.S. recession odds to 35%. He warns that bond market vigilantes are returning worldwide, increasing the risk of a...
Alphabet Is Down 20%: Why This Is Not a Quality Entry Yet
Alphabet shares have fallen about 20% after peaking near $350, prompting a re‑evaluation of its valuation. The company disclosed a 2026 capital‑expenditure plan of roughly $175‑$185 billion, which is likely to pressure free‑cash‑flow and compress its price‑to‑earnings multiple. The author compares...
Piper Sandler Launches Coverage on Dime Community Bancshares (DCOM) with Bullish View
On March 16, Piper Sandler initiated coverage of Dime Community Bancshares (DCOM) with an Overweight rating and raised its price target to $37, up from $36. The brokerage cites a recovering net interest margin and anticipates significant loan repricing in...
UBS Keeps Neutral Rating on Buckle (BKE) as Growth Remains Steady but Unchanged
UBS analyst Mauricio Serna kept a Neutral rating on Buckle, Inc. (NYSE:BKE) and trimmed the price target to $53 from $55. The retailer posted an 8.0% rise in comparable store sales and an 8.8% increase in net sales to $84.4 million...
Morgan Stanley Lowers Price Target on Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), Keeps Overweight Rating
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Kramer lowered Mid‑America Apartment Communities’ (MAA) price target to $153.50 from $156 while keeping an Overweight rating, signaling confidence in the REIT’s long‑term outlook. Two weeks earlier, Truist’s Michael Lewis cut his target to $142 from...
Citi Reduces Winnebago (WGO) Target to $46, Flags Inventory Turn Challenges
Citi analyst James Hardiman lowered Winnebago Industries' price target to $46 from $54 while maintaining a Buy rating after the company posted a fiscal Q2 2026 earnings beat. The downgrade reflects concerns that the firm’s inventory turnover remains below Citi’s...
Are Bank Stocks a Buy? CBA, NAB, ANZ, Westpac, MQG
Richard Hemming explains why Under the Radar Report remains invested in Australia’s big banks—CBA, NAB, ANZ, Westpac and Macquarie—despite a prolonged sell‑side consensus. The four‑bank system controls roughly 70% of mortgage lending and has generated about 6% annual returns over...
Mohnish Pabrai on Finding Value, Asymmetry, and Ignoring Market Labels
Mohnish Pabrai’s recent shareholder call challenged the industry’s reliance on rigid labels such as “growth,” “value,” or “cyclical,” urging investors to evaluate businesses on cash generation, durability, and price instead. He highlighted that low‑cost commodity producers and emerging‑market fintech can...
Creality IPO Filing Reveals Financial Growth, Manufacturing Scale, and Other Secrets
Creality, the China‑based 3D printer maker, filed a 492‑page draft IPO application with Hong Kong’s exchange, revealing rapid revenue growth and expansive manufacturing capacity. Revenue rose from $272 million in 2023 to an estimated $453 million in 2025, while profit margins slipped...