ARKK Innovation Fund Earnings Estimates/Revisions
The Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) saw more earnings estimate upgrades than downgrades in the latest 60‑day window, with a 19:10 up‑to‑down ratio among its top‑weighted stocks. Cumulative 2026 earnings power for these holdings rose modestly by 0.77%, while 2027 forecasts slipped 0.32%. The spreadsheet also tracks Wall Street’s consensus 12‑month price targets for each stock, though those targets remained largely unchanged. Overall, the data suggests a slight near‑term earnings upside amid mixed longer‑term outlooks.
KISSing CVX and COP (FREE POST)
Rob Connors highlights a long‑standing pattern linking Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) to the broader market. Over a century, CVX’s price relative to the S&P 500 has oscillated between roughly 2 % at lows and 9 % at highs, while COP’s ratio has...
Portfolio Update – 03/29/2026 (Important One)
The investor released a Q4 portfolio update after the earnings season, emphasizing strong performance in a concentrated high‑beta stock strategy despite a recent market‑wide correction. Year‑to‑date returns are –5.2% versus the S&P 500’s –6.8%, while cumulative returns since January 2024 total +412.7%...
Howard Marks & The Foundational Elements of Intelligent Investment
Howard Marks, co‑founder of Oaktree Capital, delivered a one‑hour presentation in Sag Harbor outlining what he calls the three foundational elements of intelligent investing. He revisited the Efficient Market Hypothesis, explained how investor psychology and risk aversion shape market cycles,...
Does It Make Sense to Build a Dividend Portfolio to Generate Steady & Reliable Monthly Dividend Income?
The article examines whether constructing a dividend portfolio that delivers steady monthly cash flow is worthwhile. It outlines the psychological comfort of predictable income but warns that relying on REITs and income trusts can concentrate risk and limit growth. The...
Opportunities For Outperformance In The Small and Mid-Tier PM Producers (Part 1)
The article outlines how small and mid‑tier gold producers can deliver outsized returns compared with larger miners. It begins with mindset advice for investors before diving into the fundamentals and technicals of select stocks. The author highlights near‑term catalysts such...
Enterprise Group (E.TO/ETOLF): Infrastructure Services Specialist
Enterprise Group (E.TO/ETOLF) discussed its infrastructure services strategy in a live interview with CEO Desmond O'Kell on March 23, 2026. The company is targeting Canada’s natural‑gas and site‑power markets by deploying advanced turbine technology for resource and construction projects. O'Kell...
Bad News: When Insiders Buy Up Stock
A recent analysis of roughly 1,400 insider purchases at S&P 500 firms shows executives collectively spent $3.7 billion on shares worth over $100,000 each since 2020. Most buys occurred after a 30‑day price dip, often following disappointing earnings or other negative news....
Cyber Incidents: Share Price Response Immediate and Sustained
ISS STOXX and ISS‑Corporate analyzed cyber incident disclosures for Russell 3000 companies from 2022‑2024. They found that firms reporting significant cyber breaches underperform the market by roughly 5% on average, with the gap widening to nearly 4.9% after 250 trading...
The Mag 7 Ate Your Index
For nearly two years the S&P 500’s rally has been powered by an unusually tight group of seven mega‑cap stocks, often dubbed the “Magnificent 7.” That concentration masked historically thin market breadth, leaving most equities lagging behind the index. Recent price action...
A 10% Dip Is Not A Green Light To Go All In
The author warns investors not to pour all cash into the market simply because the S&P 500 has slipped 10% from recent highs. A 10% decline is technically a correction, not a market bottom, and Fidelity’s historical data shows many...
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratios
Yardeni’s latest chart shows the S&P 500’s forward price‑to‑earnings ratios diverging sharply across market segments. The so‑called Magnificent Seven tech‑heavy stocks are trading above a 30‑times forward P/E, while the broader large‑cap index sits near 22‑times and small‑to‑medium caps hover around...
How the Stock Market Performs After a Correction
A new analysis of S&P 500 data from 1950‑2026 examines how the market rebounds after 10%, 20% and 30% drawdowns. The study finds that, on average, investors who bought at those lows were up 15%, 17% and 21% after one year,...
A Time for Caution
The My Trend Asset Allocation Model has consistently outperformed the traditional 60/40 stock‑bond benchmark on an out‑of‑sample basis, delivering higher returns while maintaining comparable risk levels. Its trend‑following methodology spans a broad set of global equity markets and commodity prices,...
Deckers Outdoor Stock Analaysis: Is the 15x PE a Screaming Buy or a Value Trap?
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) is trading at roughly 15 times forward earnings, a 50 percent discount from its all‑time high where the multiple peaked above 30 x. The company boasts a fortress balance sheet—zero debt, multi‑billion‑dollar cash, and an asset‑light supply chain—but its revenue...
What Do Aircraft Maintenance Shortages Mean for Investors
North America faces a shortfall of roughly 17,000 aircraft maintenance technicians in 2026, widening the gap between a growing fleet and available labor. The deficit is inflating wages, pushing labor to nearly a third of total MRO costs and extending...
Some Final Words on the Market Outlook
The author announces retirement at the end of March and publishes a final strategy note on the intermediate‑term stock outlook. The piece highlights that the long‑term timing model remains bullish on equities, suggesting continued upside potential. A technical analysis review...
Time to Be Fearful
An investor over‑committed to oil stocks and energy ETFs after noticing falling gasoline prices, seeing his portfolio halve before a rebound restored and grew his position. The experience left him alternating between panic at losses and anxiety about missing further...
Auxly Cannabis Group Inc. Q4 FY2025 Update – (XLY)
Auxly Cannabis Group posted Q4 FY2025 revenue of C$40.1 million, up 16% YoY, and an adjusted EBITDA of C$12.5 million, delivering a 31% margin that beat expectations by roughly 20%. While revenue missed consensus by about 2%, the company highlighted strong mix‑shift...
Digital Engagement's Fat Tail Risk?
Meta was hit this week with two high‑profile lawsuits—one in Los Angeles over algorithmic addiction and another in New Mexico over child sexual exploitation—resulting in $375 million in civil penalties and $6 million in damages, respectively. The penalties are modest compared with...
Rick Rule Says This Gold Stock Panic Looks Like a Buyer Opportunity
Veteran resource investor Rick Rule warns that the recent sharp sell‑off in gold equities is less a crisis than a buying window for disciplined, long‑term investors. He argues that focusing on a "shopping list" of high‑quality names, rather than trying...
Why 'New' Value Stocks Outperform: The Hidden Driver Of Value Investing
A January 2026 paper by Linda Chen, Wei Huang and George Jiang finds that roughly half of the stocks classified as value or growth each year are “new” entrants, having switched categories after a two‑year gap. The authors show that the...
Ukrainian Agriculture Stocks – the World’s Ultimate Land Bargain?
Four years after a 2022 primer warned that Ukrainian farmland was priced at just 10% of Polish values, the sector has proved remarkably resilient despite the ongoing war. The London‑listed agribusiness MHP SE has doubled its share price, posted a...
Pfizer Inc (PFE): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value
Our weekly DCF model values Pfizer Inc. at roughly $14‑15 per share, far below its current trading level near $27. The analysis uses a 9% discount rate, 2% terminal growth, and projects free cash flow stabilizing around $10 billion by 2029,...
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) — Deep Value In a Revitalized Global Apparel Retailer
Abercrombie & Fitch has completed a multi‑year transformation that lifted gross margins to 61% and generated over $350 million of free cash flow. The retailer now reports $5.27 billion in revenue, $699 million operating income and a net margin of roughly 10%. Valuation...
Is It Time To De-Risk Your Portfolio? | Ted Oakley
Ted Oakley, founder and CEO of Oxbow Advisors, urges investors to keep 20‑25% of their portfolios in cash or Treasury bills as stock valuations remain extreme and earnings multiples risk compression. He warns that both declining earnings and falling multiples...
5 Most Undervalued Cloud Stocks to Buy According to Analysts
BlackLine (NASDAQ:BL) is highlighted as one of the five most undervalued cloud stocks by analysts. Approximately 44% of analysts remain bullish while 50% are cautious, and the consensus price target of $50 suggests about 28% upside from current levels. BMO...
Is Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) One of the Tech Stocks to Sell Right Now According to Cathie Wood?
Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) has been flagged by Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management as a tech stock to sell, after the firm cut its stake by 15% in the fourth quarter, reducing holdings to 114,066 shares worth roughly $2.06 million. The...
From Digital AI to Physical AI — Portfolio Construction for a New AI Investment Cycle
A free, CE‑credit webinar on March 27 will explore how advisors can reshape portfolios for the next AI investment cycle. Host Michael Gayed and KraneShares strategist Derek Yan will examine the S&P 500’s extreme concentration—top ten stocks now hold over...
TransDigm: Mini-Monopolies at 30,000 Feet
TransDigm Group has built a portfolio of niche aerospace components that function as mini‑monopolies, giving the company strong pricing power and margins above 30 %. Its aggressive acquisition strategy—over 30 bolt‑on purchases in the last ten years—has driven compound earnings growth...
Start Here: Welcome to Clayton Capital Insights
Clayton Capital Insights, a Substack run by value investor Nick Clayton, showcases a concentrated, margin‑of‑safety approach that generated a 41% return in 2025. The strategy typically holds 7‑15 high‑conviction positions, emphasizing strong balance sheets, disciplined position sizing, and capital allocation...
The Best Defense: What 222 Years of Data Reveals About Protecting Your Portfolio
Over two centuries, the classic 60% stock/40% bond mix delivered roughly 7% annual returns but suffered drawdowns exceeding 71%. A new study covering 1800‑2021 evaluated dozens of defensive tactics and identified Defensive Absolute Return (DAR4020) and multi‑asset trend‑following as the...
63% Upside For This European Space Play
An investment note spotlights a European space‑focused vehicle that could deliver a 63% upside, tying together the booming space‑data market and rising defence spending. Satellites now underpin global logistics, conflict monitoring, and high‑value analytics, making space a critical economic layer....
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Balances Expansion With Execution Risks
Huntington Bancshares completed its merger with Cadence Bank, adding 390 branches and expanding its footprint into Texas and the Southeast. The combined institution now holds roughly $279 billion in assets, $221 billion in deposits and $187 billion in loans across 21 states. DA...
Analysts Reaffirm Buy as Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Normalizes Credit
Capital One (NYSE:COF) posted mixed February credit‑card data that analysts interpreted as a sign of credit normalization. Delinquencies fell month‑over‑month while net charge‑offs rose at a slower pace than historical norms, and loan balances declined 1.3% MoM but grew 2.5%...
Delta Air Lines (DAL) Raises Revenue Outlook Amid Strong Demand and Rising Fuel Costs
Delta Air Lines raised its Q1 2026 revenue outlook, citing robust demand and record corporate travel bookings. The airline reported a 25% year‑over‑year sales increase, $4.5 billion free cash flow and the lowest debt level since 2019, while premium revenues have...
CVS Health (CVS) Strengthens Market Position Amid Analyst Confidence and Industry Shifts
TD Cowen reaffirmed a Buy rating on CVS Health and lifted its price target to $105 after a proprietary consumer pharmacy survey showed CVS as the most preferred retailer with above‑market loyalty. The analyst highlighted an organic growth opportunity as rival...
Wells Fargo (WFC)’s 2026 Outlook: Analyst Revisions and Investor Guidance
Truist Securities analyst John McDonald lowered his price target on Wells Fargo (WFC) to $94 from $98, citing a softer net interest income (NII) outlook. The bank’s FY2026 guidance projects roughly $50 billion in NII, prompting Truist to adjust its margin assumptions....
Forge Insurance Update: A Small P&C Insurer Reaches the Inflection Point
Forge Insurance, a nano‑cap property‑and‑casualty carrier focused on commercial auto, reported 2025 results that signal a decisive inflection point. Net premiums earned jumped 41% to $31.1 million and underwriting income turned positive at $2.4 million after a loss the prior year. Net...
Jeremy Grantham on Market Psychology, AI, and Overinvestment Risk
Jeremy Grantham warns that AI hype mirrors past bubbles, emphasizing that transformative ideas can become overinvested. He notes that railroads, the internet, and AI share a pattern: obvious, serious ideas attract massive capital, leading to valuation excess. Grantham stresses separating...
Top Superinvestors Are Buying Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)
Recent 13F filings reveal that top institutional investors added to Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP). AQR Capital led the charge with a 495,080‑share increase, while Gotham, Fairfax, and Point72 also expanded or initiated positions. The buying spans quantitative, deep‑value, and...
Scott Kennedy’s BDC Series: Blackstone Secured Lending’s NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 11 BDC Peers – Part 2 (Includes Cal...
Blackstone Secured Lending (BSL) reported its Q4 2025 results, showing a NAV increase to $1.12 per share and a dividend yield of 9.2%, positioning it ahead of eleven comparable BDC peers. The fund’s price‑to‑book multiple compressed to 0.9x, reflecting a modest...
Heritage Global: A Distressed Asset Platform Trading at 5x EV/EBIT and Near Liquidation Value
Heritage Global Inc. (NASDAQ:HGBL) operates a multi‑segment distressed‑asset platform that trades at less than 70% of book value and roughly 5.5 × EV/EBIT, placing it near liquidation pricing. The San Diego‑based firm has posted profits every year since 2018 and exhibits counter‑cyclical...
Career Risk and Conviction: Inside Jeremy Grantham’s Investment Philosophy
Jeremy Grantham, co‑founder of GMO, has built a reputation for spotting market bubbles and enduring career risk, from the Japanese asset surge to the dot‑com crash and the 2008 housing crisis. His quantitative value‑quality model delivered strong outperformance for decades,...
Increases CAPE Ratio Predictability with a Simple Adjustment
A new working paper demonstrates that a simple adjustment to the cyclically adjusted price‑earnings (CAPE) ratio—aligning index constituents and applying market‑cap weights—significantly sharpens its ability to forecast ten‑year equity returns. The revised Component CAPE delivers an out‑of‑sample R² of 0.575,...
When AI Erases Moats, What Happens to Markets?
The piece argues that AI will erode traditional competitive moats, making five‑year cash‑flow forecasts unreliable and forcing a shift from discounted‑cash‑flow models to valuations based on current cash flow multiples. Drawing on Elon Musk’s first‑principles thinking, it challenges the century‑old...
Checking In on SILA Realty Trust
Six quarters after its IPO, SILA Realty Trust reports mixed results. The health‑care REIT maintains a low 30% debt‑to‑gross‑assets ratio and 2.2% average rent escalators, while its weighted‑average lease term extends to ten years by 2025. However, a high dividend,...
Mohnish Pabrai: Why Simple Ideas and Asymmetry Drive Outsized Returns
Mohnish Pabrai’s SXSW presentation highlighted that simple, fully‑committed ideas outperform complex strategies. He linked disciplined valuation, incentives and behavioral edges into a cascading "Lollapalooza" effect. Trust, exemplified by Costco’s pricing discipline, becomes a durable moat that compounds over time. The...
Chris Hohn Portfolio Analysis: Core Holdings, Concentration & Strategy
TCI Fund Management, led by activist investor Chris Hohn, reported a $53.6 billion equity portfolio that is almost entirely concentrated in its top ten holdings. The fund’s core positions include General Electric, Visa, Microsoft, Moody’s and S&P Global, reflecting a bias...
15 Best Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Seth Klarman
Billionaire investor Seth Klarman, who runs Baupost Group’s $5.2 billion 13F portfolio, reiterated his value‑focused philosophy in a May 2025 interview with Goldman Sachs’ John Waldron. He emphasized a strict margin‑of‑safety discipline, the need for differentiation, and a portfolio structure that...