Crocs, Inc. (CROX): Deep Value Global Footwear Consumer Brand
Crocs, Inc. trades at an Acquirer’s Multiple of 6.70 and an IV/P of 1.4, indicating roughly 40% upside under conservative valuation. The company generates $659 million of free cash flow, delivering an 11‑12% FCF yield on enterprise value, and maintains a 20% operating margin on $4 billion of revenue. Despite concerns about fashion cyclicality and debt from the HEYDUDE acquisition, Crocs’ low‑capital, high‑margin model and expanding direct‑to‑consumer channels support strong cash generation. These fundamentals place the global footwear brand in deep‑value territory.
What, Me Worry?
Investors confront two distinct threats to wealth: inflation and market bear markets. Historical data shows bear markets can plunge 20‑50% in months, with recoveries ranging from five months to seven years, while a steady 3% inflation rate trims purchasing power...
Stagflation Sojourn
U.S. equities posted their worst weekly decline in nearly a year as an energy‑driven stagflation scenario unfolded following a sharp spike in oil prices tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The article attributes the shock to escalating...
Dividend Aristocrats List For 2026
The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index for 2026 comprises 69 companies that have raised their cash dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. To qualify, firms must belong to the S&P 500, have a float‑adjusted market cap of at least $3 billion and...
Pzena: When a Value Index Stops Looking Like Value
Pzena Investment Management argues that the Russell 1000 Value Index has drifted from a pure‑value construct, now holding hundreds of mega‑cap technology names alongside traditional value stocks. The index’s broadened composition makes it resemble a broad market basket with a...
Excelsior: Opportunities In Growth-Oriented Silver Producers – Part 16
Excelsior’s latest newsletter spotlights growth‑oriented silver producers amid a surge in silver prices, which have hovered between the low $70s and low $90s per ounce. The metal is now trading at the highest average quarterly price ever recorded, driving heightened...
9 Best Aluminum and Aluminum Mining Stocks to Invest In
Aluminum prices surged to a four‑year high of $3,418 per metric ton after Middle East supply shocks, prompting analysts to flag the sector as volatile. A new ranking of nine aluminum and mining stocks, compiled by counting hedge‑fund holdings in...
Follow-Up on "AWS: Pre and Post-ChatGPT"
The author revisits his earlier article warning about AWS’s long‑term outlook, sparked by the rise of ChatGPT and AI‑driven workloads. Reader feedback was notably more constructive, prompting a follow‑up that clarifies and expands on the original concerns. Additional analysis, including...
This Week’s Deep-Value Landscape: Acquirer’s Multiple Large-Cap Screen
The latest Acquirer’s Multiple® Large‑Cap screen highlights a cluster of capital‑intensive cyclicals, discounted financials and mature global franchises that are trading at historically low acquisition multiples despite robust operating income, free cash flow and active shareholder returns. Valuations remain anchored...
MacroPass™: Jeff Clark's Latest Gold Mining Stock Pick
Jeff Clark of The Gold Advisor recommends a newly formed gold miner that controls a project with more than 2 million ounces of proven gold in Colombia’s prolific belt. The company, less than two months old, is fully funded, has begun...
Podcast: Chris Waller of Plural Investing and Hidden Gem Investing
In a recent podcast, Chris Waller of Plural Investing and Hidden Gem Investing breaks down two high‑profile spin‑offs—GCI Liberty (GLIBK) and Seaport Entertainment (SEG). He explains why rights offerings on spin‑offs, championed by investors like Joel Greenblatt, can be compelling...
Constellation Software 4Q'25 Update
Constellation Software reported a solid fourth‑quarter 2025, with its maintenance and recurring revenue segment—about 75% of total sales—growing 6% year‑over‑year, an acceleration of roughly 200 basis points versus the prior quarter. Management said artificial intelligence has not yet affected organic...
Why Earnings Beat Cash Flow for Long-Term Investment Decisions
A new January 2026 study by McInnis, Silva and Yu shows that while free cash flow predicts short‑term cash generation, earnings become the superior predictor of cash flows over 9‑20‑year horizons. The researchers attribute this reversal to investment accruals, which...
Tigress Financial Lifts PT on McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) to $385 From $360 – Here’s Why
Tigress Financial raised its price target for McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) to $385 from $360, reaffirming a Buy rating. The firm cited the fast‑food giant’s powerful global brand, AI‑driven operational efficiencies, rapid unit expansion, and asset‑light franchise model. Combined with the stock’s...
Why The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) Is One of the Best Stocks That Will Always Grow
Procter & Gamble (PG) remains a cornerstone of consumer‑staples investing as Wells Fargo lifted its price target to $177, citing the stock’s strong defensive profile. In fiscal Q2 2026 the company posted $22.2 billion in net sales, a modest 1% year‑over‑year increase, while...
Barclays Retains an Equal Weight Rating on Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC)
Barclays analyst Andrew Mok raised Acadia Healthcare’s price target to $20, up from $14, while keeping an Equal Weight rating. The company posted fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of $821.5 million, a 6.1% year‑over‑year increase, and reported adjusted EBITDA of $99.8 million. A $996.2 million...
John Rogers: Where Investors Should Look Beyond The Mega-Cap Trade
John Rogers, co‑CEO of Ariel Investments, warned that the current market turbulence is driven more by policy decisions and geopolitical tension than by traditional credit cycles. He highlighted a widening gap in consumer spending, with affluent consumers still splurging while...
Top Superinvestors Are Buying ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW)
Top institutional investors dramatically increased their stakes in ServiceNow (NOW) during the latest 13F filing period, adding roughly $2.5 billion in new equity. The purchases were led by Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management, which added over 6.6 million shares, followed by sizable...
The Best Defensive Strategies: Two Centuries of Evidence
The paper extends defensive‑strategy testing back to 1800, revealing that systematic trend‑following and a revised defensive‑absolute‑return overlay (DAR4020) consistently protect a 60/40 portfolio during its worst months. Traditional safe‑haven assets such as gold and continuously‑bought equity puts underperform or erode...
The Risk of Losing Money in the Stock Market
The article examines the probability of losing money in the stock market, showing that short‑term volatility is common but long‑term outcomes are overwhelmingly positive. Data from the S&P 500 reveal that 5% pullbacks happen multiple times a year, 10% corrections every...
How to Track Your Dividend Portfolio Beyond Income: A Holistic Approach for Dividend Investors
Dividend investors often fixate on monthly cash payouts, but that narrow view can hide stagnant or declining portfolio value. A holistic tracking method adds portfolio market value, current yield, and total return to the traditional dividend‑income metric. By comparing Yield...
Is Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. (SEI) One of the Best Oil Stocks With Highest Upside Potential?
Solaris Energy Infrastructure (NYSE:SEI) received upgraded price targets from Morgan Stanley and Barclays, both reaffirming Overweight ratings. Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $72, while Barclays raised it to $63, citing strong data‑center contracts and equipment procurement outlook. SEI reported...
Here’s What The Street Thinks About Select Water Solutions, Inc. (WTTR)
Select Water Solutions (WTTR) received upbeat analyst upgrades after delivering strong fiscal Q4 results. Piper Sandler raised its price target to $16, maintaining an Overweight stance, while Citi lifted its target to $16.50 and reaffirmed a Buy rating. Both firms...
Notes From MS Conference: Meta, and Microsoft
At Morgan Stanley’s TMT conference, Meta CFO Susan Li highlighted the company’s IREV metric, showing steady ad‑performance improvements driven by AI and larger data pools. She explained Meta’s push to scale data, redistribute ad loads, and deploy large‑language models for real‑time...
AWS: Pre and Post-ChatGPT
Jeff Bezos highlighted Amazon Web Services as a "market size unconstrained" business in his 2014 shareholder letter, emphasizing strong returns on capital. After the letter, AWS disclosed mid‑20s operating margins that rose to roughly 30% by 2021, with ROIC consistently...
Sector Fund by Stealth
Retired UK entrepreneur Mark Crothers announced a major portfolio overhaul, reducing his US technology exposure to about 15% and adding Europe and Southeast Asia. He contends that the S&P 500 has effectively become a sector fund because the ten largest tech...
Why AI Is Unlikely to Kill OTAs
OpenAI announced it is scaling back plans to embed direct checkout functionality inside ChatGPT, opting instead for checkout flows through third‑party apps that plug into the chatbot. The news sent Booking Holdings and Expedia Group shares higher, reflecting investor relief...
Once Burned, Twice Shy
The article reflects on Fidelity’s Magellan Fund’s disappointing decade after Peter Lynch retired, contrasting it with the Contrafund’s stellar 35‑year run under Will Danoff. Danoff’s 14.04% annualized return outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 3 points, a rarity for a...
Weekly Summary
Greg Abel issued Berkshire Hathaway’s first annual letter and appeared on CNBC to discuss resuming the company’s share‑buyback program, underscoring continuity after Warren Buffett’s era. The week also featured high‑profile interviews with investors Stan Druckenmiller and John Arnold, plus a...
The Boeing Company (BA): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value
Each week we run a DCF model on Boeing, arriving at an intrinsic share price of roughly $85, far below the current market level near $230. The analysis uses a 10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth, and forecasts free cash...
Veeva FY4Q'26 Update
Veeva Systems posted a strong FY4Q’26, reporting $836 million in revenue versus the $811 million consensus. Revenue grew 16% year‑over‑year, outpacing operating expense growth of roughly 7%, which helped lift the LTM GAAP operating margin to a record 28.7%. Gross margin dipped...
The Small-Cap Rotation Is Real
Small‑cap indices have surged, with the S&P 600 up about 9% YTD and the S&P 400 gaining over 8%, while the S&P 500 remains flat. The rally is tied to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, which has lowered rates to 3.5‑3.75% and eased...
Never Sell: MBI Interviews Asianometry
MBI’s “Never Sell” podcast featured a conversation with Asianometry, the popular YouTube educator known for deep dives into semiconductor technology. The episode explored the entire semiconductor value chain, from design through testing, and highlighted the creator’s ability to simplify complex...
Stick to What You Know
The article warns investors that geopolitical crises, such as the current Middle East conflict, trigger instinctive, emotion‑driven actions that clash with sound investing. It highlights the impossibility of forecasting short‑ and long‑term market reactions to such events. Instead, it reminds...
Frontier AI Economics
Frontier AI model developers operate under highly speculative economics, with valuations suggesting they will capture strong net‑profit margins over time. The range of possible outcomes remains broad, from modest profitability to potential monopoly power, as illustrated by a hypothetical Anthropic...
Stanley Druckenmiller: Massive Disruption Ahead
In a recent Morgan Stanley interview, legendary macro investor Stanley Druckenmiller explained that contrarianism is often overrated and that true returns come from anticipating shifts in perception. He highlighted his successful bets on Teva Pharmaceuticals, which doubled after the market...
Top Superinvestors Are Buying Brookfield Corp. (BN)
Top institutional investors have markedly increased their holdings in Brookfield Corp. (BN) during the latest quarter, with Pershing Square, Akre Capital, Lone Pine and others adding billions of dollars in equity. The purchases reflect confidence in Brookfield’s diversified alternative‑asset platform,...
Finding Value in Numbers With Ehsan Ehsani – The Special Situations Report Episode 56
Episode 56 of the Special Situations Report features Ehsan Ehsani, executive director at Crescendo Partners and Columbia Business School adjunct, promoting his new book "Finding Value in Numbers." The interview delves into quantitative investing tools, the Kelly Criterion for portfolio...
How Elephants May Die
Hendrik Bessembinder’s research shows that roughly 4% of U.S. stocks have generated virtually all excess returns over Treasury bills since 1926. The article links this concentration to investors’ shrinking time horizons, which heighten sensitivity to valuation spikes and disruptive narratives....
March, 2026 Investing Update
The author launched a new monthly investing feature for 2026, highlighting business‑cycle‑driven portfolio management. The aggressive “Adrenaline” portfolio posted a 10.3% annualized return YTD, while the defensive “Market‑Neutral” portfolio surged 57.3% annualized, both outpacing a slightly negative S&P 500. The post...
JL Collins Goes Global - And Why That Feels Familiar
JL Collins, author of *The Simple Path to Wealth* and long‑time advocate of a single‑fund U.S. strategy, announced a shift to include Vanguard's Total World ETF (VT) alongside VTI. The change moves his allocation from 100% U.S. equities to roughly...
Citi, Stifel Bullish on Olema (OLMA) Despite COO Departure
Citi reaffirmed its Buy rating on Olema Pharmaceuticals, setting a $60 price target, while Stifel initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $48 target, modeling peak 2035 sales of $3.1 billion for the lead asset palazestrant. The bullish outlook follows...
Why Expected Returns Matter More than Index Concentration
The S&P 500’s top‑seven stocks now represent more than 30% of market value, sparking industry warnings about concentration risk. Academic research shows this level mirrors historic peaks from the 1930s and is a natural outcome of firm‑specific volatility, not a market...
Digital Advertising Industry Snapshot 4Q'25
The fourth quarter of 2025 reveals a shifting balance in digital advertising, with Meta’s market share rising to 34 percent and Alphabet’s falling to 48.1 percent after a four‑year decline. Meta’s incremental share has consistently exceeded 40 percent over the past three years,...
The Berkshire Beat: February 27, 2026
Greg Abel, Berkshire Hathaway’s new CEO, will publish his inaugural letter to shareholders alongside the 2026 annual report tomorrow, marking a symbolic handoff from Warren Buffett. Analyst Christopher Bloomstran estimates Berkshire’s intrinsic value grew 9.3% in 2025, reaching $1.23 trillion, or...
Burford Capital – Back From the Dead?
Burford Capital, the world’s largest litigation‑finance firm, presented a refreshed investment case at an online conference, highlighting its expanding portfolio and a strategic shift beyond the high‑profile YPF dispute. While the YPF claim—still pending collection—has driven past volatility, the company...
A Slightly Different (Premium) Thesis
The author proposes a nuanced premium‑valuation thesis that deviates from conventional high‑growth narratives. While the potential upside is modest compared with prior ideas, the investment case rests on differentiated catalysts such as pricing power, niche market positioning, and incremental margin...
Amazon Becomes the Most-Owned Stock Among Hedge Funds:
Amazon has become the most‑owned stock in hedge‑fund portfolios, overtaking Microsoft and Nvidia. The shift reflects Amazon’s transition from a high‑growth, low‑margin e‑commerce model to a cash‑flow‑generating infrastructure platform spanning cloud, logistics and AI. Over the past two years the...
Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2025 Annual Letter
Semper Augustus Investments Group released Chris Bloomstran’s 2025 Annual Letter, warning that a trillion‑dollar AI and datacenter arms race is reshaping capital allocation. Bloomstran challenges the notion that S&P 500 investors can still expect historic Ibbotson returns over the next...
Why Guy Spier Is Returning Capital—And What It Means for Investors
Guy Spier announced he is returning outside capital, citing health concerns rather than performance or market timing. He frames the decision as a fiduciary duty to treat investors’ money with utmost seriousness. The letter underscores liquidity discipline, a preference for...