My S&P 500 Forecast for 2026
The S&P 500 has delivered roughly 6‑7% annual earnings growth over the past four decades, but its valuation has surged to a PE of 26 and a CAPE of 36—well above historical norms. The author argues that such elevated multiples are unsustainable and predicts a mean‑reversion to a CAPE of about 19, which would push the index down to roughly 3,800 by the end of 2026. This scenario implies a potential 47% decline, highlighting the risk of investing at current levels despite AI‑driven optimism.
Scott Kennedy’s mREIT + BDC Earnings Series: Assessing Chimera Investment’s and Blackstone Secured Lending’s Performance For Q1 2026
Scott Kennedy’s latest earnings series evaluates Chimera Investment Corp.’s Q1 2026 mREIT results alongside Blackstone Secured Lending’s Q1 2026 BDC performance. Chimera delivered a 7.2% total return, with its NAV per share climbing to $12.45, driven by higher mortgage‑backed security yields and...
The ROIC Engine
The article argues that return on invested capital (ROIC) is the fundamental engine behind sustainable earnings growth. It explains that high ROIC, not just headline earnings, enables companies to generate cash efficiently after the initial capital build‑out. The piece advises...
Home Depot (HD): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value
Home Depot’s discounted cash‑flow model yields an intrinsic share price of roughly $235‑$240, well below its current trading level near $329. The analysis assumes an 8% discount rate, 3% terminal growth and projects free cash flow climbing to $17 billion by...
Deeply Undervalued Global Medical Device Company – Embecta Corp. (EMBC)
Embecta Corp. (EMBC) is a global diabetes‑care device maker trading at an IV/P of 1.90 and an Acquirer’s Multiple of 5.03, suggesting significant undervaluation. The company posted $1.08 billion in revenue, $140 million net income and $206 million free cash flow, while maintaining...
Pagaya Technologies (PGY): Q1 2026 Earnings Review
Pagaya Technologies posted Q1 2026 revenue of $318 million, topping the $323.8 million estimate, and generated $94 million of adjusted EBITDA, delivering a 29.6% margin. Net income reached $25 million and network volume grew 9% to $2.6 billion, with core volume up 23% YoY after excluding...
Adobe: An AI Victim Story That May Be Wrong
Adobe’s stock has been penalized by the belief that generative AI will render its creative‑software suite obsolete. The article argues that this view is too narrow, suggesting AI will instead amplify the volume of content that businesses must produce, edit,...
Whirlpool Sales Plunge, Warns of 4 Percent Price Hikes, Blames Inflation
Whirlpool Corp. slashed its full‑year earnings outlook to $3‑$3.50 per share and halted its dividend as it confronts rising input costs, a new 25% tariff on imported appliances, and a heavy debt load. The company warned that list prices will...
Q1 Markets in Review
Prof G Markets will host a live Q1 market review on Monday, May 11 at 10 a.m. ET featuring NYU valuation professor Aswath Damodaran. The session will dissect the quarter’s volatility, covering Big Tech earnings, hyperscaler capex battles, the prospective SpaceX IPO,...
What Is Dollar Cost Averaging?
Dollar‑cost averaging (DCA) lets investors commit a fixed dollar amount at regular intervals, buying more shares when prices dip and fewer when they rise. The method removes market‑timing anxiety and works best with low‑cost index funds that provide broad diversification....
Fiserv Faces a Difficult Reset Amid Revenue Declines
Fiserv reported first‑quarter adjusted revenue of $4.68 billion, down 2.4% year‑over‑year and missing analyst expectations. Both its Merchant Solutions and Financial Solutions divisions saw revenue declines, 1% and 6% respectively, reflecting weaker merchant growth and rising attrition in core banking. The...
After Brutal Run Of Underperformance, Is The Value Premium Back?
Brian Chingono’s Verdad research paper examines whether the long‑awaited value premium has returned after a 14‑year “value famine” (2007‑2020) that saw value stocks lag growth by roughly 5.7% annually. By pairing historical valuation spreads with forward five‑year return vintages across...
LifeVantage Corporation (NASDAQ:LFVN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
LifeVantage Corp (NASDAQ:LFVN) reported Q3 2026 revenue of $43.7 million, a 25.2% drop from the prior year, and earnings per share of $0.12, missing the $0.16 consensus. Gross profit margin slipped to 79% and operating income fell to $1.7 million, reflecting weaker...
Whirlpool Crashes After Iran Shock Sparks "Recession-Level" Appliance Slump
Whirlpool Corp. posted a first‑quarter loss and missed sales forecasts, prompting a pre‑market share drop of up to 20%. Net sales were $3.27 billion, below the $3.42 billion consensus, while EBIT fell 79% to $44 million. Management blamed the U.S.–Iran war for a...
A Glimmer Of Common Sense Emerges
A major institutional investor managing roughly $250 billion in assets publicly challenged SpaceX’s proposed $2 trillion valuation and Elon Musk’s compensation plan ahead of any public offering. The criticism follows earlier blog posts that questioned the feasibility of such a valuation and...
Stock of the Week: Alphabet - 63% YoY Growth In Cloud
Alphabet posted a strong Q1 2026, reporting $109.9 billion in revenue, a 22% year‑over‑year rise. Google Cloud surged 63% to $20 billion, lifted its operating margin to 33% and built a record $462 billion backlog. The company also expanded Waymo’s autonomous rides to...
The Asset Class Buffett Owns That You Probably Don't
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reported $339.3 billion in three‑month U.S. Treasury bills and $51.5 billion in cash, totaling $390.8 billion in liquid reserves as of March 31 2026. The short‑duration T‑bills earn about 3.69% annualized and are exempt from state taxes, outperforming most high‑yield savings accounts...
Will Wegovy Tablets Spark a “Turnaround” At Novo Nordisk?
Novo Nordisk’s newly launched Wegovy oral tablet is delivering a rapid market surge, with over two million U.S. prescriptions and first‑quarter sales of about $350 million, outpacing expectations. Weekly new prescriptions reached roughly 200,000 by mid‑April, marking the fastest uptake for...
Can the Commodities-to-Equity Ratio Help Us Time Asset Rotation?
The commodities‑to‑equity ratio compares the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index to the S&P 500, indicating which asset class has stronger momentum. Historically the ratio has cycled, with equities dominating the 1990s, commodities the 2000s, and stocks regaining strength in the 2010s. A simple...
Nutrien Reports Record Potash Volumes and 30% EBITDA Growth in Q1 2026
Nutrien Ltd. posted a strong first‑quarter 2026, delivering $1.11 billion of adjusted EBITDA, a 30% year‑over‑year increase, and net earnings of $139 million. Record potash volumes of 3.51 million tonnes drove a 30% EBITDA rise in that segment, while nitrogen and retail divisions...
Earnings-Led Meltup
Since the S&P 500 hit its March 30 low, the index has surged 16.1% to a fresh record high. Analysts have sharply upgraded earnings‑growth expectations, now forecasting 21.4% growth for 2026 and a long‑term earnings growth (LTEG) of 20.2%, surpassing the 2000...
Tom Gayner’s Top Holdings, Trades & Investment Strategy
Tom Gayner’s Markel Group disclosed an $11.94 billion equity portfolio, with the top ten holdings making up roughly 42% of assets. The core positions feature Berkshire Hathaway (both classes), Alphabet, Brookfield, Deere, Amazon and Apple, reflecting a Berkshire‑style emphasis on durable...
THE GOLD MINERS FREE CASH FLOW REVOLUTION: The Unprecedented Profitability, the Discovery Deficit, Historic Ownership Lows, Digital Age, & Why...
Gold miners are now generating record free cash flow, eclipsing profitability levels seen in the 1970s and early‑2000s. Despite this cash surge, their equity valuations remain deeply compressed, with EV/EBITDA multiples far below those of tech and the broader S&P...
Honey Badger Silver (5/6/2026)
Don Durrett’s newsletter outlines a framework for evaluating gold and silver mining stocks and applies it to Honey Badger Silver (HBSD). The junior miner holds about 12 million ounces of combined proven and probable reserves and operates at roughly $5 per...
Viemed Healthcare Q1 2026 Update – VMD
Viemed Healthcare posted Q1 2026 revenue of $75.4 million, up 27% from a year ago, and gross profit of $42.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $14.3 million, though margin fell to 19% as capex declined to $5.5 million and debt was trimmed to $8.3 million. Strong...
THE COMING URANIUM SQUEEZE: The 85M Lb Deficit, the A.I. Demand Shock, the Hollowed-Out U.S. Production Crisis & Why Uranium...
Uranium markets are entering a tight supply cycle, with global demand projected to outpace supply by roughly 85 million pounds, driven largely by AI‑powered data centers and grid modernization. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust now holds over 81 million pounds—about two years...
Red-Flagging a Hot Data Center Play
Modine Manufacturing, a century‑old thermal‑management firm, has seen its shares soar roughly 1,000% in three years as investors chase data‑center cooling exposure. The company began by producing the Spirex radiator for tractors and later expanded into vehicle thermal systems before...
Sequans Posts 25% Revenue Drop in Q1, Abandons Bitcoin Treasury Strategy
Sequans Communications reported Q1 revenue of $6.1 million, a 24.8% decline from a year earlier. The drop reflects a comparison effect after a strong Q1 2025 quarter boosted by Qualcomm licensing fees. Despite the revenue slump, product sales surged 45% year‑on‑year and...
Modeling with the NAAIM Exposure Index
The piece outlines a systematic trading model that relies solely on the NAAIM Exposure Index, a weekly sentiment survey of active investment managers. The model goes long 150% of the S&P 500 when any of three index‑based conditions are met,...
AGCO Reports 14.3% Q1 2026 Revenue Growth, Raises Full-Year EPS Guidance and Increases Dividend
AGCO Corp posted first‑quarter 2026 net sales of $2.34 billion, a 14.3% year‑over‑year increase, driven by strong demand for high‑horsepower tractors and precision‑ag equipment. Europe and the Middle East led growth with a 20.3% sales jump and near‑record operating margins of...
LNG FSRUs: Stable Infrastructure Returns in the Booming Global LNG Market – Top Fleet Owners to Watch
Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) are reshaping the global LNG market by offering rapid deployment and lower capital costs compared to onshore terminals. Their flexibility has accelerated LNG adoption in emerging importers such as Egypt and helped bridge supply...
Mohnish Pabrai Explains Why Only 4% of Stocks Drive Market Returns
Mohnish Pabrai told The Investor’s Podcast that roughly 4% of all stocks account for the bulk of market returns, while the remaining 96% barely keep pace with bonds or inflation. He highlighted the growing concentration of index performance in a...
This Week’s Deep-Value Landscape: Acquirer’s Multiple Large-Cap Screen
Today’s Acquirer’s Multiple® Large‑Cap screen highlights a pronounced disconnect between cash‑rich large‑cap companies and market valuations. While financials, energy, industrial cyclicals and mature franchises generate strong operating income, high free‑cash‑flow conversion and disciplined capital allocation, they trade at compressed multiples...
10 Best Young Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade
CIO Group’s Steven Wieting told CNBC that AI‑driven software and hardware stocks are thriving despite broader economic headwinds such as $100‑plus oil, higher Treasury yields and geopolitical bottlenecks. He highlighted an 88% projected EPS surge for U.S. semiconductors and record‑high...
5 Best Young Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade
Toast Inc. (NYSE:TOST) introduced its Toast Go 3 handheld point‑of‑sale device across the UK, Ireland, Canada, and Australia. The rugged, IP65‑rated unit features a 6.52‑inch screen, 24‑hour battery life, and seamless Wi‑Fi or cellular connectivity. Integrated software tools such as Menu Upsells...
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY): A Top Undervalued REIT Stock on Balanced Risk Profile
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) received a Neutral rating from BofA Securities on April 24, with the price target lowered to $23. The REIT posted earnings per share of $0.76, a 3% quarter‑over‑quarter increase that topped the $0.73 consensus, driven by...
Why Citizens Still Sees Upside in Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR)
Citizens Research & Management reiterated a Market Outperform rating on Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) on April 2, but trimmed its price target to $11 from $12. The firm projects a 2026 total dividend of $1.20 per share, translating to a required...
Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) An Undervalued REIT Stock to Buy On Shareholders’ Returns
Dynex Capital (DX) expanded its at‑the‑market equity distribution agreement on April 28, adding Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as sales agents, boosting its capacity for future Rule 415 equity raises. The board also approved a $300 million common‑stock and $50 million preferred‑stock repurchase...
Book Value Stability Affirms Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) as a Top Undervalued REIT Stock to Buy
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) received a Market Outperform rating from Citizens on April 2, with a $14 price target that translates to 1.04 times its reported book value per share. The firm’s book value stands at $13.56, bolstered by a $0.13 monthly...
Q1 Results Assert Why Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) Is a Top REIT Stock
Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) posted record first‑quarter results, with revenue up 6.3% year‑over‑year to $420 million and adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) rising 9.2% to $297.1 million. Net income climbed to $239.4 million, and the annualized dividend per share increased to $3.12....
This Is Why Wall Street Firms Are Cautious on Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD)
JPMorgan reaffirmed an Overweight rating on Starwood Property Trust but lowered its price target to $19 from $20, reflecting broader sector adjustments amid higher interest rates. BofA Securities also cut its target to $19 while maintaining a Neutral stance, citing...
JetBlue Pushes Back on Bankruptcy Rumors as Fuel Costs Drive Losses
JetBlue Airways denied recent bankruptcy rumors after rival David Neeleman warned of a possible $1.3 billion loss in 2026 if fuel prices stay near $4.50 per gallon. The airline reported a $319 million first‑quarter loss, driven by soaring jet fuel costs, but...
Does Academic Research Actually Give Investors an Edge? A New Study Says Probably Not
Researchers Andrew Chen, Alejandro Lopez‑Lira, and Tom Zimmermann compared 212 peer‑reviewed stock‑return predictors with roughly 29,000 mechanically generated accounting ratios. In out‑of‑sample tests, the two approaches performed almost identically, with only a modest edge for top‑journal papers and for studies...
Why The Cash Flow Statement Is More Important Than Ever
Investors traditionally focus on the income statement, but the surge in AI‑related capital spending makes cash‑flow analysis essential. Amazon’s latest quarter showed record revenue and operating margin, yet it spent $44 bn on capex and projects $200 bn for the year—over half...
Frontier Airlines 1Q26 Earnings
Frontier Airlines posted Q1 2026 operating revenue of $992 million, up 9% year‑over‑year, while GAAP net loss widened to $272 million and adjusted loss narrowed to $68 million. The carrier’s ultra‑young Airbus fleet delivers roughly 106 ASMs per gallon, the most fuel‑efficient mix...
$STVN: Are Oral GLP-1s Really a Death Blow? | Aurelion Research's Leo Trudel
Stevanato Group (STVN), a leading supplier of glass vials and pre‑filled syringes for GLP‑1 therapies, saw its shares slide amid speculation that oral GLP‑1 formulations could erode demand for injectable delivery. Analyst Leo Trudel argues this view overlooks continued growth...
Selling
Dean Pettycash’s latest post in his "How I Run My Portfolio" series tackles the often‑overlooked art of selling. He argues that exits are not a single decision but a set of context‑driven choices, each requiring its own rationale. By categorizing...
Total Shareholder Return: The New Playbook for Chinese Equities
Chinese equities are transitioning from a growth‑centric narrative to an income‑focused playbook as regulators, low domestic rates, and a slowing economy drive higher shareholder returns. In 2025, A‑share listed companies paid a record 2.64 trillion CNY (≈$370 bn) in dividends and executed buybacks...
2026 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting Video, Transcript, and Notes
The 2026 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting on May 2 featured a five‑hour session where new CEO Greg Abel fielded most questions, marking the first time Warren Buffett did not lead the Q&A. Buffett appeared in a separate interview, reiterating...
Are Stocks a Good Inflation Hedge?
The author argues that stocks are not a reliable hedge against inflation, citing research that shows negative or low inflation betas for U.S. equities. A study by Fang, Liu, and Roussanov (2026) measured excess‑return betas to headline, core and energy...