Walking The Thin Line: How AI Is Compressing The Tails
The report argues that AI has become the new production function, forcing capital into equities much like negative real rates did in 2021. With AI‑driven capex approaching $1 trillion and data‑center revenue at $47 billion, the sector’s valuation premium hinges on whether AI services can catch up to spending. Companies that embed AI—exemplified by Palantir’s 103% jump in Q4 2025 bookings—are pulling ahead of the broader market, widening the gap between the “Mag 7” and the S&P. Real‑time market signals, such as IGV rising 200 bps while SMH fell 100 bps, illustrate a rapid long‑short positioning unwind.
Scott Kennedy’s BDC Earnings Series: Assessing Golub Capital BDC’s Performance For Calendar Q1 2026
Golub Capital BDC reported strong Q1 2026 results, posting a 12% rise in net income year‑over‑year. The firm’s loan portfolio expanded 8% to $2.3 billion, while the weighted‑average spread widened to 5.2%, enhancing profitability. Credit losses stayed modest at 0.3% of...
Howard Marks: You Can’t Predict. You Can Prepare
Howard Marks told Nikhil Kamath that market cycles are driven by behavior, not fundamentals, and that trying to predict exact outcomes is futile. He warns that AI enthusiasm and massive passive inflows keep valuations high despite hidden risks, but classic...
Smart Money Is Buying Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR)
Institutional investors are increasing stakes in Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) after the latest 13F filings, with Point72 Asset Management leading the charge by adding 1.84 million shares. Deep‑value and quantitative managers such as AQR, Davis Selected Advisers, and GMO also expanded...
The Dual-Filter Capital Rotation: Two Independent Inputs, One Structural Bifurcation
A dual‑filter capital rotation model explains why supply‑chain shocks cause intra‑sector divergence rather than uniform index moves. The first filter weeds out firms with high logistical exposure to the disruption, while a second, always‑active filter favors companies with quantifiable forward...
(Podcast) Upgrade 614: $100 Billion Is the Floor
Apple’s latest quarterly report shattered its own records, posting $117.5 billion in revenue and setting a $100 billion valuation floor for its emerging AI ventures. The hosts dissect how this financial strength could fuel the so‑called Ternus Era, marked by aggressive product...
Google Owns a Big Chunk of Anthropic
Google holds a 14% equity stake in AI start‑up Anthropic, capped at a 15% ceiling, and has invested more than $3 billion to date. The tech giant will add another $750 million via convertible debt in September, but retains no voting rights,...
The Hard Money Has Been Made
The article argues that the current market reward is "hard money" earned by investors who stuck with out‑of‑favor strategies, not "easy money" from timing the market. Since the start of 2025, foreign‑value equities have significantly outperformed the U.S. market, but...
The Four Paramount Questions We Want David Ellison to Answer Tonight
Paramount is rumored to be preparing a bid for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) portfolio, not just its Warner Bros. and HBO assets. Investors are pressing CEO David Ellison for clarity on why a full‑scale acquisition makes sense amid accelerating...
Industrials (Top 30 Weights) Earnings Estimates/Revisions
Analysts have revised earnings estimates for the Industrials Sector ETF (XLI) top 30 stocks, with 21 companies raising 2026 forecasts and only eight lowering them over the past 60 days. The net upward movement translates to a 2.64% increase in...
Exploration & Production Sector (XOP) – Earnings Estimates/Revisions
Earnings estimates for the Exploration & Production sector (XOP) have surged over the past 60 days, with all 30 tracked stocks receiving upward revisions and none downgraded. The collective 2026 earnings power jumped 76.82%, while 2027 forecasts rose 32.84%. These...
Vanguard’s World Stock Market ETF: Is the Whole Better than the Sum of the Parts?
Vanguard’s Total World Stock ETF (VT) offers a single‑fund, cap‑weighted exposure to the global equity market, but it carries a higher expense ratio and no foreign tax credit. Splitting VT into Vanguard’s Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI) and Total...
Diamond Hill Small Cap Strategy’s Q1 2026 Investor Letter
Diamond Hill Capital’s Small‑Cap Strategy posted a net return of 3.41% in Q1 2026, outpacing the Russell 2000’s 0.89% gain. The quarter began with strong small‑cap momentum but softened as geopolitical tensions escalated, notably the U.S. and Israel’s actions against Iran. Meanwhile,...
What Makes Cognex Corporation (CGNX) a Compelling Stock?
Fred Alger Management’s Small Cap Focus Fund highlighted Cognex Corporation (CGNX) as a top pick in its Q1 2026 letter. The machine‑vision specialist closed May 1 at $55.94, delivering a 12.96% one‑month gain and a 99.86% rise over the past 52 weeks....
Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Edge AI Can’t Replicate
In a recent episode of the Excess Returns podcast, Chris Mayer, author of "100‑Baggers," sat down with Ian Cassel to dissect the limits of AI in investing. The conversation covered long‑term stock picking, micro‑cap strategies, business quality, and the behavioral...
"Never Sell" Episode: Big Tech Earnings, S&P and Moody’s, AI
The "Never Sell" podcast episode breaks down the latest Q1 earnings from Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, highlighting how AI‑driven cloud services lifted results. It warns that corporate IT budget shifts toward generative AI may not translate into durable productivity...
Talk Your Book: Animal Spirits Live with F/M Investments
F/m’s new Compounder ETF series targets after‑tax investors by deferring income, cutting dividend tax drag, and offering higher after‑tax yields. The firm highlights hidden costs in traditional dividend reinvestment programs, advocating market‑order purchases to preserve returns. It contrasts the liquidity...
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 May 2026
The Global Market Index (GMI) long‑term return outlook nudged higher in April, with the annualized return estimate now exceeding 7%. This places the forecast at the upper end of recent analyst projections. Despite the uptick, the index’s trailing ten‑year performance...
Extracting Alpha From the Factor Zoo Through Systematic Investing
ORCA Hedge, a Gothenburg‑based boutique, has launched a systematic long/short equity strategy that targets hundreds of risk factors and dynamically filters them to capture the most effective premia. The fund, officially opened in early 2025 after four years of development,...
Rich Pzena’s Latest Portfolio & Strategy Explained
Pzena Investment Management reported a $30.8 billion equity portfolio for the latest quarter, with the top ten holdings accounting for about 35.7% of assets. The firm’s deep‑value strategy targets out‑of‑favor companies across cyclical, financial, healthcare and industrial sectors, while maintaining moderate...
![Special Situation Setup: CVV Sum Of The Parts Mispricing + Biorem Q4 Management Briefing [Geowire Weekly No. 237]](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://geoinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/0503_thumbnail.png)
Special Situation Setup: CVV Sum Of The Parts Mispricing + Biorem Q4 Management Briefing [Geowire Weekly No. 237]
GeoInvesting’s weekly wrap‑up highlighted a special‑situations opportunity in CVV after a “blowout” quarter that may be mispriced under a sum‑of‑the‑parts analysis. The newsletter also featured Biorem Inc.’s Q4 2025 management briefing, where the CEO reported record backlog growth and stronger...
BIRMF Q4 Results Management Briefing with Derek Webb, President and CEO of BIOREM
Biorem Inc. reported Q4 2025 revenue of $16.9 million, up from $9.0 million a year earlier, and full‑year revenue of $42 million, surpassing the prior year’s $37 million. The company closed 2025 with a record backlog exceeding $65 million and highlighted a growing service segment...
Is Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Verisk Analytics (VRSK) is trading near $188 with a trailing P/E of 27.3 and forward P/E of 23.3. A bearish thesis highlights near‑term cyclical headwinds in personal auto and property insurance, weakening transaction revenue and pricing power. The report warns...
Is Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Walker & Dunlop (WD) is a commercial‑real‑estate brokerage and loan‑servicing firm that leverages exclusive Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and HUD licenses to dominate multifamily finance. The company’s servicing portfolio now drives the majority of EBITDA, giving it a recurring earnings base...
Is Cactus, Inc. (WHD) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Cactus Inc. (WHD) trades near $56 per share with a $4.6 billion market cap and trailing/forward P/E ratios of 23.2 and 48.1, respectively. The company operates two high‑margin segments—Surface Pressure Control and Spoolable Pipe—delivering mid‑30% EBITDA margins. In early 2026 it...
Is Enviri Corporation (NVRI) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Enviri Corporation (NVRI) is slated to sell its Clean Earth unit to Veolia for $14.50‑$16.50 per share, with proceeds expected toward the upper end of that range and a $150 million reverse termination fee protecting against deal failure. After the divestiture,...
Is ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
ON Semiconductor (ON) is being touted as a bullish AI play after a ValueInvestorsClub thesis highlighted its T2PAK top‑side cooled packaging that meets the soaring 12‑20kW power needs of next‑generation data‑center servers. The company’s AI‑focused thermal segment is growing roughly...
Is Precigen, Inc. (PGEN) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Precigen (PGEN) has moved from a clinical‑stage developer to a commercial rare‑disease platform after the August 2025 FDA approval of Papzimeous for recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP). The drug targets roughly 27,000 U.S. patients and carries a $460,000 four‑dose regimen, positioning...
Is Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Remitly Global (RELY) trades at about $21.60 with a trailing P/E of 69.7, positioning it as a high‑growth fintech in the $700 billion global remittance market. The company leads low‑value consumer remittances, leveraging a scale‑driven flywheel that lowers unit costs while...
27 Investing Rules From Warren Buffett's Most Famous Lecture
On July 18, 2001 Warren Buffett delivered a two‑hour lecture at the University of Georgia that distilled his investing philosophy into 27 actionable rules. The guidance spans temperament, valuation, position sizing, mistake avoidance, and business assessment, emphasizing independent thinking, treating...
Microsoft FY 3Q'26: Multi-Model Mirage, Copilot Momentum
Microsoft’s FY 3Q 2026 earnings call highlighted a modest rise in multi‑model AI usage, with just over 10,000 Foundry customers running more than one model and 5,000 leveraging open‑source options. Despite this, roughly 90% of the 80,000‑plus customers still rely on a...
Meta Platforms ($META) Deep Dive 📉
Meta Platforms reported a blockbuster fourth quarter, with revenue up 12% year‑over‑year and earnings per share beating expectations by $0.12. Advertising revenue climbed 13% and margins remained robust, while operating expenses rose sharply as the company pours money into AI...
Update with Golconda Gold (GG.V/GGGOF): Disciplined Gold Producer
Golconda Gold’s CEO Ravi Sood outlined a strategic turnaround that includes paying down its credit facility and unsecured note, thereby strengthening the balance sheet. Production at the Galaxy mine in South Africa is set to rise from roughly 10,000 ounces...
The 3 Horizons of Investing: Aligning Your Strategy with Time
The article outlines three investment horizons—short (days to weeks), medium (6 months to 2 years) and long (5‑10+ years)—and explains how each is driven by distinct forces such as news sentiment, macro cycles, and EPS growth. It argues that most...
![[ASEAN Inc.] +17.4% Annualized Since December 31, 2024 — Vietnam and Singapore Lead While Indonesia and the Philippines Lag](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9YPx!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ae96dd8-7265-4336-89d6-30d33b5fc019_1280x1280.png)
[ASEAN Inc.] +17.4% Annualized Since December 31, 2024 — Vietnam and Singapore Lead While Indonesia and the Philippines Lag
A hypothetical ASEAN Inc. portfolio of seven U.S.-listed ETFs delivered a 17.4% annualized return, including dividends, from Dec 31 2024 to May 1 2026. Vietnam’s Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF outperformed with a 51.3% annualized gain, while Singapore’s iShares MSCI Singapore ETF posted a...
NVent Electric Plc (NYSE:NVT) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
nVent Electric plc reported a blockbuster first quarter, posting $1.242 billion in sales—up 53% year‑over‑year—and adjusted EPS of $1.09, well above the $0.94 consensus. Growth was powered by a surge in data‑center demand, with organic sales in the infrastructure vertical climbing...
The Star Manager Myth: How a Phantom Stock-Picker Beat the Market
A phantom portfolio constructed from every leveraged single‑stock ETF launch between August 2022 and April 2026 generated a 38.9% annualised return, nearly double the Nasdaq Composite. The basket, equal‑weighted across 179 stocks, added each ticker on the ETF’s inception day, capturing pre‑launch...
Constantly Fired Yet Did Not Give Up
The post argues that investors should look beyond today’s Magnificent Seven stocks, noting that market leadership inevitably rotates to newer companies with expanding cash flows and scalable models. Analysts have compiled a free report titled “These 7 Stocks Will Be...
Wall Street Trap
May 1, 1975 marked the SEC’s deregulation of brokerage commissions, sparking the rise of discount brokers and lower trading costs for investors. Decades of research, from Alfred Cowles to Barber and Odean, show that individual stock‑picking and active fund management consistently underperform...
Buying One Staple Stock That's Been Crushed
The author argues that investors should consider buying a heavily discounted staple stock that still offers a 5.6% dividend, betting on a turnaround as the company resolves its operational issues. The piece highlights the recent underperformance of consumer staples, multiple...
Premium: Inference Waves
NVIDIA’s stock surged 78% over the trailing twelve months, rebounding 20% in April to end the year up 5% despite macro headwinds. The company posted a record quarter of net new revenue and guided an even faster Q1, all without...
THE MOST CONCENTRATED MARKET IN HISTORY: A.I. at 45% of the S&P 500, the $1.4T Debt Trap & Why Gold...
Goldman Sachs data shows AI‑related equities now represent 45% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, a 20‑point jump since ChatGPT’s launch and surpassing the tech sector’s 35% peak during the dot‑com bubble. Simultaneously, AI‑linked investment‑grade debt has ballooned to $1.4 trillion, accounting...
Rethinking Trend Following: Optimal Regime-Dependent Allocation
A new paper separates regime detection from position sizing, deriving Sharpe‑optimal weights for each market state. Applying the framework to two‑ and four‑regime specifications lifts out‑of‑sample Sharpe ratios from 0.208 to 0.506 and from 0.496 to 0.628, respectively, across 18...
Rule Change so SpaceX Should Join Sp500 6 Months After IPO
The S&P Dow Jones Indices has proposed rule changes that would let megacap firms such as SpaceX qualify for index inclusion after just six months of public trading, cutting the current twelve‑month waiting period. The proposal also removes the 10 %...
Lou Simpson: The Investor Who Ran GEICO's Portfolio and Quietly Outperformed for Decades
Lou Simpson managed GEICO’s investment portfolio from 1979 to 2010, steering a markedly higher equity allocation than typical insurers. By concentrating 35‑45% of the float in a handful of high‑quality stocks—often just 8‑15 holdings—he generated a 20.3% compound annual return,...
Air Canada 1Q26: Record Everything, Except Certainty
Air Canada posted a record first‑quarter with $5.8 billion in operating revenue, a 61% jump in adjusted EBITDA to $623 million, and free cash flow of $1.6 billion. Passenger traffic rose 5.6% to 11 million, while premium and corporate revenues grew double‑digits. The carrier...
Stellantis Reports Q1 Profits as Revival Plan Appears to Take Hold
Stellantis posted a Q1 2026 net profit of $440 million, a swing from a $455 million loss a year earlier. Revenue grew 6% and adjusted operating income reached $1.2 billion, reflecting stronger sales and cost‑discipline. Global shipments rose 12% and North American shipments...
Position Sizing
Dean outlines a judgment‑driven approach to position sizing, emphasizing that it’s the single biggest driver of portfolio outcomes. He recommends starting with 5‑10% of capital for an initial idea, using 2‑3% “half‑positions” for basket components, and scaling up or down...
5 Things Warren Buffett Says To Never Invest In or Buy (Avoid at All Costs)
Warren Buffett’s investment doctrine is defined by five categories he refuses to touch: businesses outside his circle of competence, cheap mediocre firms, non‑productive assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, and hype‑driven IPOs. He argues that capital preservation comes first, and only...
Andersen Group – a Beneficiary of Bureaucracy and Box-Ticking Culture
Andersen Group, a boutique tax and financial advisory firm, went public in December 2025, raising $176 million and pricing its shares at $16. Since the IPO, the stock has more than doubled to $34, driven by strong client retention, cross‑selling opportunities,...