The Best Defense: What 222 Years of Data Reveals About Protecting Your Portfolio
Over two centuries, the classic 60% stock/40% bond mix delivered roughly 7% annual returns but suffered drawdowns exceeding 71%. A new study covering 1800‑2021 evaluated dozens of defensive tactics and identified Defensive Absolute Return (DAR4020) and multi‑asset trend‑following as the most effective protectors. DAR4020 generated about 1% per month during the worst 10% of market months, while trend‑following added roughly 0.5% per month in severe downturns. Traditional safe havens like gold, puts and Treasury bonds lagged or proved costly.
63% Upside For This European Space Play
An investment note spotlights a European space‑focused vehicle that could deliver a 63% upside, tying together the booming space‑data market and rising defence spending. Satellites now underpin global logistics, conflict monitoring, and high‑value analytics, making space a critical economic layer....
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Balances Expansion With Execution Risks
Huntington Bancshares completed its merger with Cadence Bank, adding 390 branches and expanding its footprint into Texas and the Southeast. The combined institution now holds roughly $279 billion in assets, $221 billion in deposits and $187 billion in loans across 21 states. DA...
Analysts Reaffirm Buy as Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Normalizes Credit
Capital One (NYSE:COF) posted mixed February credit‑card data that analysts interpreted as a sign of credit normalization. Delinquencies fell month‑over‑month while net charge‑offs rose at a slower pace than historical norms, and loan balances declined 1.3% MoM but grew 2.5%...
Delta Air Lines (DAL) Raises Revenue Outlook Amid Strong Demand and Rising Fuel Costs
Delta Air Lines raised its Q1 2026 revenue outlook, citing robust demand and record corporate travel bookings. The airline reported a 25% year‑over‑year sales increase, $4.5 billion free cash flow and the lowest debt level since 2019, while premium revenues have...
CVS Health (CVS) Strengthens Market Position Amid Analyst Confidence and Industry Shifts
TD Cowen reaffirmed a Buy rating on CVS Health and lifted its price target to $105 after a proprietary consumer pharmacy survey showed CVS as the most preferred retailer with above‑market loyalty. The analyst highlighted an organic growth opportunity as rival...
Wells Fargo (WFC)’s 2026 Outlook: Analyst Revisions and Investor Guidance
Truist Securities analyst John McDonald lowered his price target on Wells Fargo (WFC) to $94 from $98, citing a softer net interest income (NII) outlook. The bank’s FY2026 guidance projects roughly $50 billion in NII, prompting Truist to adjust its margin assumptions....
Forge Insurance Update: A Small P&C Insurer Reaches the Inflection Point
Forge Insurance, a nano‑cap property‑and‑casualty carrier focused on commercial auto, reported 2025 results that signal a decisive inflection point. Net premiums earned jumped 41% to $31.1 million and underwriting income turned positive at $2.4 million after a loss the prior year. Net...
Jeremy Grantham on Market Psychology, AI, and Overinvestment Risk
Jeremy Grantham warns that AI hype mirrors past bubbles, emphasizing that transformative ideas can become overinvested. He notes that railroads, the internet, and AI share a pattern: obvious, serious ideas attract massive capital, leading to valuation excess. Grantham stresses separating...
Top Superinvestors Are Buying Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)
Recent 13F filings reveal that top institutional investors added to Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP). AQR Capital led the charge with a 495,080‑share increase, while Gotham, Fairfax, and Point72 also expanded or initiated positions. The buying spans quantitative, deep‑value, and...
Scott Kennedy’s BDC Series: Blackstone Secured Lending’s NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 11 BDC Peers – Part 2 (Includes Cal...
Blackstone Secured Lending (BSL) reported its Q4 2025 results, showing a NAV increase to $1.12 per share and a dividend yield of 9.2%, positioning it ahead of eleven comparable BDC peers. The fund’s price‑to‑book multiple compressed to 0.9x, reflecting a modest...
Heritage Global: A Distressed Asset Platform Trading at 5x EV/EBIT and Near Liquidation Value
Heritage Global Inc. (NASDAQ:HGBL) operates a multi‑segment distressed‑asset platform that trades at less than 70% of book value and roughly 5.5 × EV/EBIT, placing it near liquidation pricing. The San Diego‑based firm has posted profits every year since 2018 and exhibits counter‑cyclical...
Career Risk and Conviction: Inside Jeremy Grantham’s Investment Philosophy
Jeremy Grantham, co‑founder of GMO, has built a reputation for spotting market bubbles and enduring career risk, from the Japanese asset surge to the dot‑com crash and the 2008 housing crisis. His quantitative value‑quality model delivered strong outperformance for decades,...
Increases CAPE Ratio Predictability with a Simple Adjustment
A new working paper demonstrates that a simple adjustment to the cyclically adjusted price‑earnings (CAPE) ratio—aligning index constituents and applying market‑cap weights—significantly sharpens its ability to forecast ten‑year equity returns. The revised Component CAPE delivers an out‑of‑sample R² of 0.575,...
When AI Erases Moats, What Happens to Markets?
The piece argues that AI will erode traditional competitive moats, making five‑year cash‑flow forecasts unreliable and forcing a shift from discounted‑cash‑flow models to valuations based on current cash flow multiples. Drawing on Elon Musk’s first‑principles thinking, it challenges the century‑old...
Checking In on SILA Realty Trust
Six quarters after its IPO, SILA Realty Trust reports mixed results. The health‑care REIT maintains a low 30% debt‑to‑gross‑assets ratio and 2.2% average rent escalators, while its weighted‑average lease term extends to ten years by 2025. However, a high dividend,...
Mohnish Pabrai: Why Simple Ideas and Asymmetry Drive Outsized Returns
Mohnish Pabrai’s SXSW presentation highlighted that simple, fully‑committed ideas outperform complex strategies. He linked disciplined valuation, incentives and behavioral edges into a cascading "Lollapalooza" effect. Trust, exemplified by Costco’s pricing discipline, becomes a durable moat that compounds over time. The...
Chris Hohn Portfolio Analysis: Core Holdings, Concentration & Strategy
TCI Fund Management, led by activist investor Chris Hohn, reported a $53.6 billion equity portfolio that is almost entirely concentrated in its top ten holdings. The fund’s core positions include General Electric, Visa, Microsoft, Moody’s and S&P Global, reflecting a bias...
15 Best Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Seth Klarman
Billionaire investor Seth Klarman, who runs Baupost Group’s $5.2 billion 13F portfolio, reiterated his value‑focused philosophy in a May 2025 interview with Goldman Sachs’ John Waldron. He emphasized a strict margin‑of‑safety discipline, the need for differentiation, and a portfolio structure that...
5 Best Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Seth Klarman
Billionaire investor Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group has added Union Pacific (UNP) to its 13F portfolio, now representing roughly 7% of its holdings. The railroad giant announced a $3.3 billion capital‑improvement plan for 2026, aiming to tighten its operating ratio despite macro‑economic...
Invested Assets Growth Bolsters UBS Group AG (UBS) Net Profit
UBS Group AG reported a strong 2025 performance, with invested assets climbing 15% to over $7 trillion, reinforcing its status among the world’s largest wealth managers. Net profit rose to $7.7 billion, driven by a 56% jump in fourth‑quarter earnings to $1.2 billion...
Exasol FY2025: The Turnaround Is Complete. Now Comes the Hard Part.
Exasol AG reported FY2025 results that confirm its cost‑structure turnaround, delivering $4.5 million EBITDA, $3.3 million net income and $4.3 million free cash flow. Annual recurring revenue in its focus verticals reached $29 million, but growth slowed to 10 % year‑over‑year, down from 24 % the...
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[ShareScope] Small-Cap Spotlight Report: BRAVE BISON
Brave Bison, an £83 million small‑cap marketing‑technology firm, recently took a 28% stake in advert‑testing company System1 through a £7 million share‑swap with founder John Kearon. The transaction sparked speculation that Bison might be a superior investment, especially after its January update...
What Happens To Stocks When Bond Yields Go Down?
The article explains that falling bond yields typically lift stock prices, as lower interest rates make equity cash flows more valuable and shift investor appetite toward riskier assets. A backtest using SPY and TLT from 2003‑2025 shows that going long...
Russell Napier’s Warning: The Great Portfolio Reset
Russell Napier warns that investors face a "great portfolio reset" as bond markets lose appeal, U.S. equities become riskier, and financial repression intensifies. He argues that prolonged low‑interest rates will erode fixed‑income returns, prompting a shift toward real assets and...
Visional (4194 JP)
Visional, a Japanese HR‑tech firm valued at roughly $1.9 billion, evolved from the BizReach platform founded by Soichiro “Swimmy” Minami. The service hosts over three million candidate profiles in a private, subscription‑based database, charging users about $30 per month and taking...
Is MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
MercadoLibre (MELI) traded at $1,732.33 on March 16, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 43.97 and 25.77 respectively. The company posted 39% year‑over‑year revenue growth in Q3 2025, marking its 27th straight quarter above 30% growth, and operating income rose 30%...
Is Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Intuitive Surgical dominates robotic surgery with about 70% market share and roughly 12,000 da Vinci systems installed worldwide. The company generates nearly 85% recurring revenue and performed over three million procedures last year. Its latest da Vinci 5 platform adds...
Is PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
PayPal (PYPL) traded at $44.90 on March 13, reflecting a trailing P/E of 8.3 and forward P/E of 8.5. The company posted Q4 2025 revenue of $8.68 billion (+4%) and full‑year 2025 revenue of $33.17 billion (+4%) with $5.6 billion free cash flow. A surprise...
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Duke Energy (DUK) trades around $133 with a trailing P/E of 21 and a PEGY of 2.08. The utility serves 8.6 million electricity customers and 1.7 million gas customers across six states, and is executing a $103 billion five‑year capital plan focused on...
Is Parsons Corporation (PSN) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Parsons Corporation (PSN) trades around $55 with a trailing P/E of 24.98. While the firm recently lost an air‑traffic control contract, it quickly replaced the revenue with new billion‑dollar defense and intelligence deals, underscoring its shift toward high‑margin, technology‑integrated solutions....
Explaining the Resilient S&P 500
The S&P 500 has shown unexpected resilience, slipping only about 7% from its peak despite Brent crude breaching $100 per barrel. Analysts attribute this stability to robust corporate earnings, a sector tilt toward defensive stocks, and continued monetary support. While...
Macro: The Holy Grail Of Investing
The article argues that macro forces now dominate equity performance, yet most investors shy away because timing cycles is notoriously difficult. Historical examples from Keynes to Warren Buffett illustrate repeated macro‑timing failures. Howard Marks’ calibrated, probabilistic approach is presented as...
$3 Trillion S&P 500 Gatecrashers
Three of the largest private tech firms—SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic—are slated for IPOs later this year, together representing roughly $3 trillion in private market value. With the S&P 500 valued at about $60 trillion, their entry could reshape the composition of the world’s...
How Often Do U.S. Stock Market Corrections Evolve Into Bear Markets?
Larry Greenberg examines how often S&P 500 corrections—defined as 10% declines—turn into bear markets, which require a 20% drop. Since 1929, 34 of 56 corrections failed to become bears, meaning most corrections are short‑lived. The analysis notes an average 18% intra‑year...
Ignoring the Noise Is Impossible
Financial advisors increasingly confront an unrelenting stream of market noise, making traditional "ignore the noise" counsel impractical. The article distinguishes "good advice"—generic, static recommendations—from "effective advice," which integrates durable portfolio construction with behavioral safeguards. Citing Fisher Black’s research and Charles...
100 Years, 29,000 Stocks, 46 Winners: The Case for Indexing Just Got Stronger
A new century‑long study by Hendrik Bessembinder shows that just 46 out of nearly 30,000 U.S. stocks accounted for half of $91 trillion in shareholder wealth creation, down from 89 firms in his 2018 analysis. The median stock delivered a -6.9%...
Interview With The Building Financial Podcast February 2026.
The Macro Butler interviewed Junus Eu of The Building Financial Podcast, framing investing as a form of adulting guided by a clear roadmap. He emphasized using the business cycle as a financial GPS to pinpoint the right assets without relying...
The Coca-Cola Company (KO): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value
Analysts applied a discounted cash flow model to The Coca‑Cola Company, estimating an intrinsic share value of roughly $18‑19. The model uses an 8% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth, and projects free cash flow reaching $6.7 billion by 2029, yielding a...
ZEQT vs VEQT vs XEQT: Why Is Everyone Ignoring This ETF?
ZEQT, VEQT and XEQT are Canada’s leading all‑equity asset‑allocation ETFs, but VEQT and XEQT command tens of billions in assets while ZEQT lags far behind. The three funds share almost identical global equity exposures, diversification across U.S., international and emerging...
How to Properly Size Investment Positions
The article explains how investors can boost risk‑adjusted returns by properly sizing positions rather than merely finding ideas. It introduces a simple upside‑to‑downside framework, illustrates it with PayPal and Perimeter Solutions, and ties the ratio to a practical allocation rule...
‘No Near-Term Catalyst,’ KeyBanc on Apple Stock
KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel says Apple lacks a near‑term catalyst, keeping the stock’s upside limited despite a neutral sector‑weight rating. The firm’s consumer‑spending tracker shows a 9% month‑over‑month decline in February, adding uncertainty to demand. KeyBanc raised its FY2026 revenue...
Fundsmith’s Terry Smith Explains Underperformance and Sticks to Strategy
At Fundsmith’s annual meeting, CEO Terry Smith admitted the fund’s performance over the past year was “poor.” He rejected excuses, emphasizing that the short‑term underperformance stems from broader market structural shifts rather than a flaw in the firm’s process. Smith...
This Week’s Deep-Value Landscape: Acquirer’s Multiple Large-Cap Screen
The Acquirer’s Multiple® Large‑Cap screen shows that capital‑intensive cyclicals, energy producers, financial institutions and mature franchises are generating strong operating income, free cash flow and shareholder returns, yet they trade at compressed acquisition multiples. Market pricing remains skewed toward long‑duration...
UBS Eyes Possible Bottom In Airline Stocks After Bear Market
UBS analysts say US airline stocks may be nearing a bottom after a 22% drawdown in the S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index, driven by a sharp jet‑fuel price surge linked to Middle‑East disruptions. The firm expects most carriers to hit...
Bill Ackman Explains Why AI Competition Is Reshaping Corporate Investment
Bill Ackman told the FII Institute that artificial intelligence is sparking a competitive arms race that will reshape corporate earnings. He argued that growth will stem from infrastructure spending, tax incentives, and massive private capital directed at data centers and...
Top Superinvestors Are Buying Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT)
Rocket Companies (RKT) attracted substantial institutional buying in the latest 13F filings, with hedge funds and asset managers adding over $1 billion in new stakes. Dan Loeb's Third Point, Point72, and Leon Cooperman led the surge, signaling confidence in a mortgage‑volume...
Did You Miss the Value Trade?
The latest five‑year data shows a pronounced resurgence in value investing, with a 9.0% global value premium and regional premiums ranging from 7.2% in the United States to 19.4% in Japan. Charts from Ken French’s data library and Verdad research...
The Neocloud Trojan Horse
Recent disclosures show neocloud players CoreWeave and Nebius planning $30‑35 billion and $16‑20 billion capex respectively by 2026, roughly a third of AWS's projected spend. Nvidia is repeatedly financing these firms, while Meta has pledged $12 billion for Nebius AI capacity through 2027...
When the Supply Chain Breaks, Europe’s Boring Small Caps Quietly Win
The market narrative claims supply‑chain disruptions have crushed European small‑cap stocks, driving investors toward large U.S. mega‑caps. In reality, many European firms with modest market capitalisation have insulated earnings through diversified suppliers and localized production. Their valuations have fallen disproportionately,...