The Small-Cap Rotation Is Real
Small‑cap indices have surged, with the S&P 600 up about 9% YTD and the S&P 400 gaining over 8%, while the S&P 500 remains flat. The rally is tied to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, which has lowered rates to 3.5‑3.75% and eased inflation pressures. Energy and materials lead sector gains, and value stocks finally outpace growth for the first time in years. International markets, especially Europe and emerging economies, are also posting strong returns, reshaping the global asset‑allocation landscape.
Never Sell: MBI Interviews Asianometry
MBI’s “Never Sell” podcast featured a conversation with Asianometry, the popular YouTube educator known for deep dives into semiconductor technology. The episode explored the entire semiconductor value chain, from design through testing, and highlighted the creator’s ability to simplify complex...
Stick to What You Know
The article warns investors that geopolitical crises, such as the current Middle East conflict, trigger instinctive, emotion‑driven actions that clash with sound investing. It highlights the impossibility of forecasting short‑ and long‑term market reactions to such events. Instead, it reminds...
Frontier AI Economics
Frontier AI model developers operate under highly speculative economics, with valuations suggesting they will capture strong net‑profit margins over time. The range of possible outcomes remains broad, from modest profitability to potential monopoly power, as illustrated by a hypothetical Anthropic...
Stanley Druckenmiller: Massive Disruption Ahead
In a recent Morgan Stanley interview, legendary macro investor Stanley Druckenmiller explained that contrarianism is often overrated and that true returns come from anticipating shifts in perception. He highlighted his successful bets on Teva Pharmaceuticals, which doubled after the market...
Top Superinvestors Are Buying Brookfield Corp. (BN)
Top institutional investors have markedly increased their holdings in Brookfield Corp. (BN) during the latest quarter, with Pershing Square, Akre Capital, Lone Pine and others adding billions of dollars in equity. The purchases reflect confidence in Brookfield’s diversified alternative‑asset platform,...
Finding Value in Numbers With Ehsan Ehsani – The Special Situations Report Episode 56
Episode 56 of the Special Situations Report features Ehsan Ehsani, executive director at Crescendo Partners and Columbia Business School adjunct, promoting his new book "Finding Value in Numbers." The interview delves into quantitative investing tools, the Kelly Criterion for portfolio...
How Elephants May Die
Hendrik Bessembinder’s research shows that roughly 4% of U.S. stocks have generated virtually all excess returns over Treasury bills since 1926. The article links this concentration to investors’ shrinking time horizons, which heighten sensitivity to valuation spikes and disruptive narratives....
March, 2026 Investing Update
The author launched a new monthly investing feature for 2026, highlighting business‑cycle‑driven portfolio management. The aggressive “Adrenaline” portfolio posted a 10.3% annualized return YTD, while the defensive “Market‑Neutral” portfolio surged 57.3% annualized, both outpacing a slightly negative S&P 500. The post...
JL Collins Goes Global - And Why That Feels Familiar
JL Collins, author of *The Simple Path to Wealth* and long‑time advocate of a single‑fund U.S. strategy, announced a shift to include Vanguard's Total World ETF (VT) alongside VTI. The change moves his allocation from 100% U.S. equities to roughly...
Citi, Stifel Bullish on Olema (OLMA) Despite COO Departure
Citi reaffirmed its Buy rating on Olema Pharmaceuticals, setting a $60 price target, while Stifel initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $48 target, modeling peak 2035 sales of $3.1 billion for the lead asset palazestrant. The bullish outlook follows...
Why Expected Returns Matter More than Index Concentration
The S&P 500’s top‑seven stocks now represent more than 30% of market value, sparking industry warnings about concentration risk. Academic research shows this level mirrors historic peaks from the 1930s and is a natural outcome of firm‑specific volatility, not a market...
Digital Advertising Industry Snapshot 4Q'25
The fourth quarter of 2025 reveals a shifting balance in digital advertising, with Meta’s market share rising to 34 percent and Alphabet’s falling to 48.1 percent after a four‑year decline. Meta’s incremental share has consistently exceeded 40 percent over the past three years,...
The Berkshire Beat: February 27, 2026
Greg Abel, Berkshire Hathaway’s new CEO, will publish his inaugural letter to shareholders alongside the 2026 annual report tomorrow, marking a symbolic handoff from Warren Buffett. Analyst Christopher Bloomstran estimates Berkshire’s intrinsic value grew 9.3% in 2025, reaching $1.23 trillion, or...
Burford Capital – Back From the Dead?
Burford Capital, the world’s largest litigation‑finance firm, presented a refreshed investment case at an online conference, highlighting its expanding portfolio and a strategic shift beyond the high‑profile YPF dispute. While the YPF claim—still pending collection—has driven past volatility, the company...
A Slightly Different (Premium) Thesis
The author proposes a nuanced premium‑valuation thesis that deviates from conventional high‑growth narratives. While the potential upside is modest compared with prior ideas, the investment case rests on differentiated catalysts such as pricing power, niche market positioning, and incremental margin...
Amazon Becomes the Most-Owned Stock Among Hedge Funds:
Amazon has become the most‑owned stock in hedge‑fund portfolios, overtaking Microsoft and Nvidia. The shift reflects Amazon’s transition from a high‑growth, low‑margin e‑commerce model to a cash‑flow‑generating infrastructure platform spanning cloud, logistics and AI. Over the past two years the...
Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2025 Annual Letter
Semper Augustus Investments Group released Chris Bloomstran’s 2025 Annual Letter, warning that a trillion‑dollar AI and datacenter arms race is reshaping capital allocation. Bloomstran challenges the notion that S&P 500 investors can still expect historic Ibbotson returns over the next...
Why Guy Spier Is Returning Capital—And What It Means for Investors
Guy Spier announced he is returning outside capital, citing health concerns rather than performance or market timing. He frames the decision as a fiduciary duty to treat investors’ money with utmost seriousness. The letter underscores liquidity discipline, a preference for...
Lee Ainslie: Concentrating Capital in AI Leaders While Pruning Legacy Positions
Maverick Capital reported a $9.3 billion equity portfolio, with the top ten holdings accounting for roughly 44% of assets. The fund’s biggest positions are concentrated in AI infrastructure and semiconductor leaders such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC and Applied Materials. At...
Banker on Wheels Broker Fee Comparison Tool
A new broker fee comparison tool shows that over a ten‑year horizon SAXO Bank incurs the lowest total trading costs at €318, followed by Interactive Brokers at €407, while Swissquote tops out at €1,879. The fee differential of €1,561 translates...
Protean Eyes Sweet Spot Between Active and Passive in Global Equities
Swedish boutique Protean Funds will launch a Global Aktiesparfond in late 2026, a low‑cost, actively managed global equity fund positioned between high‑fee active funds and cheap index products. The fund’s management fee is set at less than half the industry...
This Week’s Deep-Value Landscape: Acquirer’s Multiple Large-Cap Screen
The Acquirer’s Multiple® Large‑Cap screen highlights a persistent valuation gap where capital‑intensive cyclicals, commodity‑linked firms, and financials trade at deep discounts despite solid operating income and free‑cash‑flow generation. Energy giants like Equinor and Petrobras, steel producer ArcelorMittal, and banks such...
James Choi of Yale Investment Formula Says You Need More Stocks
James Choi, a Yale finance professor, introduced a formula that tailors asset allocation to age, income, savings, and risk tolerance. The Wall Street Journal highlighted that the model often recommends a more aggressive, stock‑heavy mix than conventional rules such as...
Bill Ackman’s Big Pivot: Why Pershing Square Bet $2 Billion on Meta—And Walked Away From Hilton:
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a roughly $2 billion, 10%‑of‑capital stake in Meta Platforms while exiting its long‑held investment in Hilton Worldwide. The move reflects a shift from a fully priced, mature hotel compounder to what Ackman sees as undervalued AI‑enabled...
Mario Gabelli: Value Investing Ideas for 2026
Mario Gabelli highlighted at the Barron’s Roundtable 2026 that value investors should target mispriced experiential assets such as media, sports franchises, and entertainment companies. He cited Madison Square Garden Sports as trading at roughly half its calculated intrinsic value and...
Top Superinvestors Are Buying Linde Plc (LIN)
Recent 13F filings show several top hedge funds and institutional managers expanding their stakes in Linde plc, underscoring confidence in the industrial gases leader. AQR Capital more than doubled its holding to roughly 430,000 shares, while Point72 and Gotham also...
Alphabet: From Search to AI to "AGI"
The author revisits his deep‑dive model on Alphabet, highlighting the company’s transition from a search‑centric giant to an AI and emerging AGI powerhouse. After selling the stock in 2023 over post‑ChatGPT search concerns, he re‑entered in early 2025 and now...
The Investor’s Second Self
Vishal’s new book *The Long Game* is now available for pre‑order, featuring reflections from thirty investors who have survived multiple market cycles. It introduces the concept of the “second self,” the emotional persona that emerges during market downturns and can...
Links - 02/22/2026
Joe Koster’s Feb 22 2026 "Links" newsletter delivers a concise reminder that successful investing requires disciplined policies rather than gut instinct. The post features a quote emphasizing the need for pre‑established rules and procedures before any decision. It also serves as a...
The Long-Term Reality of Hyperscalers: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Scenarios
OpenAI disclosed that its adjusted gross margin on inference dropped to 33% in 2025, down from 40% the previous year, as inference costs quadrupled. The company also projected training expenditures to rise sharply, reaching $32 billion this year and $65 billion next...
Stock Market Model – Current Signal
TrendInvestorPro, a subscription‑based platform, markets systematic trading strategies and market‑timing models for stocks and ETFs. The service bundles video tutorials, trade setups, momentum scores, and alerts behind a paid login or free trial. It targets active retail investors seeking data‑driven...
The Berkshire Beat: February 20, 2026
Peter Lynch sat down for a reflective interview, reiterating his “invest in what you understand” mantra, while Berkshire Hathaway released its final 13‑F of the Warren Buffett era, showing modest portfolio tweaks—adding Chevron and Domino’s, trimming Apple and Bank of...
The Inner Life of a Long-Term Investor
Vishal announces his new book, *The Long Game*, now available for pre‑order, featuring reflections from 30 seasoned long‑term investors. The book explores how self‑awareness, patience, and philosophical inquiry can help investors navigate market cycles and avoid emotional pitfalls. Pre‑orders start...
Booking vs Airbnb's 4Q'25, Booking's Response to Existential Question
Booking Holdings reported a 12% year‑over‑year revenue increase in Q4 2025, reaching $4.3 billion, while Airbnb posted a 9% rise to $2.1 billion. Both companies saw higher gross booking value, but Booking’s net profit margin grew to 8.5% versus Airbnb’s 6.2%. Occupancy rates...
The Eternity of Intelligent Investment
Benjamin Graham taught that investing success hinges on a proper psychological attitude, famously quoting Spinoza’s “sub specie aeternitatis” to stress an eternal perspective. The lesson, recalled by his disciple Marshall Weinberg, urges investors to detach from daily market noise and...
The Really Long Game
Vishal Niveshak announces his new book *The Long Game*, now available for pre‑order with shipping slated for the end of February 2026. The work distills lessons from 30 seasoned investors on cultivating patience, resisting short‑term market noise, and building a...
Investing Notes
Greenlight Capital highlighted Global Payments (GPN) after re‑acquiring shares at $77.85, noting its two‑step deal to sell issuer processing and acquire Worldpay. The firm projects $5 billion of free cash flow by 2028 and plans to return roughly $7 billion to shareholders,...
Weekly Summary
This week’s Value Investing World roundup highlighted several investment themes. Ian Cassel’s “From Disaster to Triumph” case studies underscored resilient micro‑cap turnaround strategies, while Ben Thompson’s conversation with John Collison explored AI‑driven advertising and its implications for SaaS. Multiple analysts—including...
Why TAA Is Performing Well Now: Outperformance Attribution
Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies have outperformed the traditional 60/40 benchmark throughout 2025 and into early 2026. A detailed attribution shows 57% of the excess return stems from the diversified asset mix TAA typically holds, while 43% comes from active...
Amazon: 2026 Update
The author has refreshed his proprietary Amazon valuation model using the company’s latest 10‑K filing, projecting financial performance through 2026. The update incorporates recent trends in e‑commerce, cloud services, and advertising revenue streams. Detailed assumptions and calculations are hosted behind...
Uncommon Sense: Warren Buffett in Milan
In May 2008 Warren Buffett concluded a four‑day European roadshow in Milan, where he fielded questions from MBA students about investing, management, and life. The trip was part of Berkshire Hathaway’s hunt for family‑owned businesses to add to its decentralized...