INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: Creative Destruction On Speed
On Dec 7, 2025 we reduced the S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors from overweight to market weight, noting they now comprise 45% of the index’s market cap and rising uncertainty over AI investment returns. Since then, hyperscalers have demonstrated profitable semiconductor operations and record‑setting forward earnings—now 42% of S&P 500 earnings—softening AI risk concerns. We maintain market‑weight exposure to preserve diversification, while Energy is easier to overweight at just 3.3% of market cap. The IT sector is up 8% YTD, but hardware firms are outpacing software and services, illustrating Schumpeterian creative destruction, and high‑tech capital spending has risen to a record 53.8% of nominal spend.
8 Best Small Cap EV Stocks to Buy Right Now
The article spotlights eight small‑cap electric‑vehicle (EV) stocks, arguing that the most compelling opportunities now lie with supply‑chain enablers rather than headline automakers. It highlights Polestar Automotive, which posted a 34% year‑over‑year sales jump to 60,119 units and bolstered its...
Driving Prices
Lucid Motors surged from $4 million revenue in 2020 to over $1 billion in 2025, posting a 68% sales jump that year, yet its shares fell more than 89% as the company logged a $3.8 billion loss on $1.3 billion of sales. Production hiccups,...
Investing Fundamentals: A Simple Guide for Beginners
The article breaks down investing fundamentals for beginners, stressing that cash left in savings loses value to inflation and that owning shares or diversified index funds can preserve purchasing power. It explains how stocks are bought through brokerages and why...
Flash Drives and Funny Numbers: What Elevance Health’s Earnings Really Reveal
Elevance Health posted Q1 adjusted earnings of $12.58 per share, surpassing analysts' forecasts and lifted its full‑year adjusted EPS outlook. The company simultaneously disclosed a $935 million charge representing its best estimate of potential Medicare Advantage overpayments tied to seven years...
Elixir Energy (EXR.AX): Imminent Catalysts and a 50% Peer Discount
Elixir Energy (EXR.AX) has expanded its booked contingent resources by 24% to 3,455 BCFe, lifting its intrinsic baseline. Near‑term de‑risking events include the Xstate Diona‑1 well test in April and Elixir’s Lorelle‑3 horizontal test in June. The company’s market cap of...
TESLA Q1 Was Confusing. Technical and Business Decoding Is Required
Tesla’s Q1 2026 report showed rising free cash flow, expanding margins and an earnings beat, but investors were spooked by higher capital expenditures and the absence of a firm timeline for scaled unsupervised robotaxis. Full Self‑Driving (FSD) subscriptions jumped to...
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[NEW] Cliff Note #140: From Bust to Boom: A Founder-Led Microcap Riding the Inventory Unwind
The European distribution sector experienced a four‑year boom‑bust cycle, with distributors over‑ordering during COVID, then halting purchases as inventory piled up to 6‑12 months. A leading European player succumbed to creditors in 2024 after a €100 million (≈$108 million) loss, and peers...
Opportunity: April 2026
The April 2026 Opportunity Report spotlights a niche firm that outperforms peers in a rapidly expanding market. The company boasts gross margins above 60%, capex under 1% of sales, and a net‑cash balance sheet. Its founders retain over 40% ownership...
The Disposition Effect: Why Losing Investors Keep Getting Worse
New research on 189,530 Chinese retail investors shows that prior losses amplify the disposition effect by roughly 10%, while prior gains dampen it. The bias—selling winners early and holding losers—creates a self‑reinforcing “doom loop” that hurts portfolio performance, especially for...
Raiffeisen Bank International – the Ukraine Proxy Still on Sale
Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), a Vienna‑listed bank with a market cap of roughly $15.4 bn, has seen its share price climb from about $13 in 2023 to $52 this week. Despite exposure to Russia and governance concerns, the stock trades at...
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value
Johnson & Johnson’s latest discounted cash flow model values the stock at $165‑170 per share, well below its roughly $240 market price, implying a roughly 30% overvaluation. The analysis incorporates an 8% discount rate, 3% terminal growth, and projects free...
BellRing Brands, Inc. (BRBR): Deeply Undervalued Fast-Growing Branded Nutrition Company
BellRing Brands, Inc. (BRBR) is a fast‑growing consumer packaged goods company that sells premium protein shakes, powders and nutrition bars under brands like Premier Protein and Dymatize. The firm posted $2.32 billion of revenue last twelve months, generating $250 million+ of free...
Pricing Exhaustion and Bifurcation: The Two-Stage Architecture of Intra-Theme Capital Exit
The article distinguishes two intra‑theme capital‑exit mechanisms—Repricing, where institutions rotate out a fully priced asset into a cheaper node within the same theme, and Bifurcation, where capital jumps to a structurally adjacent beneficiary as AI compresses demand for the original...
NeurAxis (NRXS): The Pieces Are Lining Up
NeurAxis (NRXS) released preliminary Q1 data showing the first full quarter under the new Category I CPT code and expanded insurance coverage that took effect at the end of 2025. The results exceeded the analyst’s expectations, prompting a renewed bullish stance...
“Dividends Play No Role Whatsoever in Capital Accumulation…”
Meb Faber argues that dividends no longer drive wealth creation, noting the S&P 500’s dividend yield is slipping toward the 1.1% trough first seen in 2000. In a recent podcast with Michael Mauboussin and Kai Wu, the hosts explore how an...
CHART: Freeport-McMoRan Stock Craters on Grasberg Ramp-Up Delay – by Frik Els (Mining.com – April 23, 2026)
Freeport‑McMoRan reported Q1 earnings that beat profit estimates thanks to higher copper prices, yet the stock tumbled more than 13%, pushing its market value below $90 billion. Investors focused on the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, where a September mud‑rush halted production....
No, Stocks Are Not a Good Inflation Hedge
A new Reuters analysis argues that U.S. equities fail as an inflation hedge, with real returns slipping sharply once inflation exceeds 3%. The piece notes that recent market rallies, driven by a tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire and oil prices falling under...
Lululemon’s 12% Sell-Off
Lululemon’s stock plunged 12% after the board announced former Nike executive Heidi O’Neill as its next CEO. The appointment comes amid a brewing boardroom showdown with founder Chip Wilson, who has launched a rival technical‑apparel platform and is vying for...
TSMC's Margins in Uncharted Territory
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) posted a 66.2% gross margin in Q1, the weakest quarterly level on record yet still above the usual seasonal dip. Revenue rose 6.4% sequentially to $35.9 billion, beating its own guidance. The margin gain of 3.9...
The S&P 500 Bump That Doesn’t Last Stocks Added to the Index Get a Short-Lived Boost but Often Lag Comparable...
A new study by Sandifer, Smith, and Impink finds that while S&P 500 additions enjoy a short‑term price surge, they underperform comparable non‑index peers over the long run. The research expands beyond the usual days‑or‑weeks window, tracking performance for several...
Tesla's Terafab Dream
Tesla disclosed its ambitious Terafab project, a joint venture with SpaceX and xAI valued at roughly $25 billion. The plan envisions a 2 nm semiconductor fab capable of 1 terawatt of annual compute—about 50 times current global capacity—and an initial research fab at Giga...
Novo Nordisk: Value Trap or Value Investment?
Novo Nordisk, once Europe’s most valuable company, has seen its share price tumble more than 56% from a 52‑week high after a series of setbacks. The obesity drug CagriSema failed to meet its primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial, prompting...
Guggenheim Adjusts Amgen Inc. (AMGN) PT to $351, Cites Updated Model Ahead of Earnings
Guggenheim Securities raised its price target for Amgen Inc. (AMGN) from $347 to $351 while keeping a Neutral rating, citing an updated financial model ahead of the company’s Q1 earnings release on April 30. The adjustment comes as Amgen reported...
BofA Flags Investor Caution on The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Despite Solid Quarterly Performance
Bank of America Securities trimmed its price target on Goldman Sachs (GS) to $1,050 from $1,100 while keeping a Buy rating, citing strong first‑quarter results but elevated market expectations. The firm also cut its earnings forecasts for the next several...
American Express Company (AXP) PT Slashed by JPMorgan on Uncertain Macro Outlook
JPMorgan trimmed its price target on American Express (AXP) from $375 to $325, maintaining a Neutral rating as macroeconomic uncertainty rattles the consumer‑finance sector. The downgrade precedes Amex’s first‑quarter earnings and reflects heightened volatility in consumer spending and credit demand....
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Launches Broad Rural Health Initiative to Strengthen Underserved Communities
UnitedHealth Group announced a nationwide expansion of its rural health initiative on April 20, aiming to improve access and lower costs for underserved communities. The program will accelerate reimbursement for roughly 1,500 rural and Critical Access Hospitals by up to...
Jefferies Sees International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Upside, Trims Price Target on Valuation Ahead of Earnings
Jefferies trimmed its IBM price target from $370 to $320 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing expectations of an 11% year‑over‑year software revenue surge in the first quarter. The brokerage sees upside potential despite the lower valuation. Separately, the U.S....
The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) Price Target Reduced to $167 by BofA Amid Higher Resin Cost Expectations
Bank of America Securities lowered its price target for Procter & Gamble (PG) to $167 from $171, citing higher resin input costs, while keeping its buy rating and a Q3 earnings‑per‑share estimate of $1.55. The firm also trimmed its fiscal...
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) PT Reduced to $130 as Barclays Reassesses Media Sector Outlook
Barclays lowered its price target for The Walt Disney Company to $130 from $140, while keeping an Overweight rating, as it reassesses earnings visibility across the media sector. The revision reflects broader cyclical pressures and a more cautious growth outlook...
Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) PT Reduced as Piper Sandler Flags Rising AI Competition in Enterprise Software
Piper Sandler cut Salesforce’s price target to $215 from $250, warning that a surge in AI‑driven enterprise software will tighten competition through 2026. The firm kept an Overweight rating but flagged valuation pressure as investors reassess long‑term earnings multiples. In...
Pat Dorsey Explains How to Find Companies With Real Moats
Pat Dorsey told The Long View Podcast that a moat is simply a structural competitive advantage that gives a business pricing power. He warned investors not to mistake popular products or services for durable moats, citing PayPal’s slipping relevance as...
Tom Russo’s Investing Style: Global Brands, Quality Compounders, Long-Term Value
Tom Russo’s Gardner Russo & Quinn LLC manages roughly $9.26 billion, with a highly concentrated portfolio where the top ten holdings account for about 81% of assets. The fund leans heavily toward global consumer staples, luxury brands, payments and select media...
What’s the Consensus on $AAPL?
Apple (AAPL) enjoys a strong analyst consensus, with an average price target of $297.46 and 31 Buy ratings versus just 2 Sell ratings among 48 analysts. Citi and Morgan Stanley stand out, each assigning a higher $315 target, reflecting above‑average...
Two Stocks, One Buyout Idea
The author revisits a long‑standing speculation that two unnamed companies could be the target of a mutual buyout. Recent corporate developments have made the scenario appear more credible, prompting the writer to double‑down on the thesis. The post notes a...
Tesla Earnings: Financial Expectations and What We Should to Hear About
Tesla is slated to report Q1 2026 earnings after market close, with Wall Street forecasting EPS of $0.36 and revenue of $22.35 billion, up from $0.27 and $19.34 billion a year earlier. The company beat expectations in the prior quarter but saw...
When Stock Market Valuations Actually Matter: The Power of Extremes
Javier Estrada’s February 2026 paper analyzes 150 years of U.S. market data to test when valuation multiples best forecast 10‑year real returns. The study finds that extreme values—top and bottom 25%—of dividend yield, earnings yield, and CAPE yield deliver far...
Regime Classification Framework for Mean-Reverting and Trending Markets
The paper introduces a regime‑classification framework that labels markets as mean‑reverting or trending, using return thresholds of 0.5%, 0.75% and 1% on SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM from 2000‑2024. Three machine‑learning models—Random Forest, Neural Network (MLP) and XGBoost—are tested with...
Boeing’s BCA: Margin Still Red, But Turning
Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) reported a Q1 operating margin of –6.1%, a modest improvement from the –6.6% recorded a year earlier and better than the –7.5% to –8% range the CFO cited in March. The company now projects the margin...
At the Money: Looking Beyond Market Cap Weighted Indexes
Rob Arnott, the founder of Research Affiliates, argued that market‑cap‑weighted indexes like the S&P 500 suffer from concentration risk, costly “flip‑flop” trades, and a bias toward over‑priced mega‑caps. He promoted fundamental‑weighting—using sales, profits, book value and dividends—to better reflect a company’s...
Adobe’s Massive $25 Billion Stock Buyback
Adobe announced a $25 billion stock buyback, representing roughly 25% of its $101 billion market capitalization. The program, authorized through 2030, follows a prior $25 billion buyback in 2024 and adds to the 13% of shares the company has retired over the past...
Finally, Boeing’s Recovery Is Production-Based
Boeing posted Q1 2026 revenue of $22.2 billion, a 14% year‑over‑year rise that beat Wall Street forecasts, while narrowing its net loss to $7 million. Free cash flow improved to a $1.45 billion deficit, far better than the $2.6 billion shortfall analysts expected. Commercial...
SaaS Is In Even More Trouble Than The Hype Would Have You Believe
The SaaS sector is facing a multi‑front crisis as AI reshapes value creation and legacy vendors lose market share. Salesforce has slid more than 40% and Adobe 34%, reflecting investor anxiety about AI monetization. Research from Goldman Sachs predicts slower...
Kevin Bambrough Is 'All In' On Hydrograph Clean Energy
Kevin Bambrough, the former Sprott asset‑manager who oversaw roughly $10 billion, sat down for a marathon interview to discuss Hydrograph Clean Energy (CSE:HG). He argues the company’s yet‑to‑be‑commercialized graphene technology could generate "billions and billions" of revenue. The hour‑long video has...
Data Update — March 2026
Baiguan announced the launch of Baiguan Pro, a professional‑tier subscription delivering monthly Chinese equity outlooks, quarterly sector themes, and deeper company analysis. Existing paid subscribers receive a complimentary upgrade if they respond by June 30, 2026. The March 2026 data...
Valmont Industries Reports Record Q1 EPS and Raises Full-Year 2026 Guidance
Valmont Industries posted a record first‑quarter diluted EPS of $5.51, a 27.5% jump, as net sales rose 6.2% to $1.03 billion. The Infrastructure segment led the surge, with North America Utility sales up 27.5% and overall segment revenue climbing 14.1% to...
Protected Profits: How the World’s Largest Condom Maker Turned a Global Crisis Into a "Covered" Investment Opportunity
Karex, a Malaysia‑listed firm, is the world’s largest condom manufacturer, producing over five billion units annually for brands such as Durex, Trojan and public‑health buyers like the NHS and UN. Amid the US‑Iran conflict, shipping delays have doubled transit times,...
Scott Kennedy’s mREIT Earnings Series: Assessing Annaly Capital’s Performance For Q1 2026
Annaly Capital Management reported its Q1 2026 results, delivering $1.2 billion net income—a 15% increase year‑over‑year. The mREIT’s weighted‑average coupon rose to 5.3% as higher‑yielding agency MBS offset a modest dip in portfolio size. Dividend payouts climbed to $0.55 per share, reflecting...
Howard Marks on Avoiding Losers and Building Wealth Consistently
In a recent Wharton School interview, Howard Marks warned that market optimism often lifts prices while bad news is ignored, leaving valuations elevated longer than many expect. He emphasized that the S&P 500 is not cheap by history but is...
This Week’s Deep-Value Landscape: Acquirer’s Multiple Large-Cap Screen
The Acquirer’s Multiple® large‑cap screen shows that cash‑rich companies across energy, financials, housing and mature franchises are trading at compressed multiples despite strong free‑cash‑flow yields and active shareholder returns. Market sentiment remains skewed toward AI‑driven growth narratives, leaving value‑oriented businesses...