China's 90% Model Threatens 20 Industries—Act Now
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's 90% Model is and how it directly affects your business—whether you operate in China or not 🔹The 10 industries already destroyed and the 10 industries being targeted right now—is yours one of them? 🔹How $7.5 trillion from global trade is funding China's rise—and what that means for your supply chains, your competitors, your margins 🔹What the most predictive CEOs and boards are doing to stay ahead 🔹Specific actions you can take immediately to protect and position your business Register for the event by March 4th and submit your questions: https://t.co/tZmj0J1iz9 20 minutes of insights from me. No slides. No jargon. 40 minutes of Q&A. Submit your questions here (deadline 4th March): https://t.co/9veMOOyb1v I want to hear what is keeping you up at night. For more context on the event, check out my latest newsletter: https://t.co/SmGYGcWLTA
Outbound Tender Rejections Surge to 14% Cycle High
Outbound tender rejection rates hit new cycle high at 14%. This rally is not slowing. https://t.co/LgTV2YoYEW
English Violation Rate Hits Record 103 Daily
The compliance momentum is increasing. English proficiency out of service violations are up to 103 per day, the highest in history. https://t.co/3Zplufl4lC
Last Tickets: Fireside Chat with RXO CEO on Freight Market
Still some tickets left to our first event of the year. We have a great speaker lineup and I am very excited to speak with RXO’s CEO in a fireside chart to discuss state of this crazy freight market.
Burning Out on AI, Missing Family, Game Release
I have this insatiable urge to work 100 hour weeks to deploy the latest AI @flexport, and struggling to find time to be with my family and then they have to go and drop the most perfect video game ever...
Shippers Pull Freight From Load Boards, Favor Direct Carriers
We have spoken with large brokers and hearing a trend - some shippers are demanding that their freight is not posted on load boards for fear of theft or compliance shutdowns. This is an emerging policy. The winners in this are asset...
Nvidia's Obligations Surge, Raising Structural Risk
Short Thought: Nvidia Ratchets Up the Risk Michael BurryFeb 26 Welcome to one short thought. Just going through the Nvidia numbers. I would like to highlight for you one specific aspect of their financials that I find troubling. The 2026 Form 10K...
Zimbabwe's Lithium Ban Likely Short‑Lived, Minimal GDP Impact
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
China's Rare Earth Export Curbs Still Limit US Supply
Chinese rare earth export controls are still choking off lots of material to the US
Nvidia Gaming GPU Supply Remains Tight for Quarters
Nvidia's gaming graphics chip production will be tight for a couple of more quarters, CFO says. https://t.co/V7qkJlyb5l
AI Boom Fuels Data Demand for Small Innovators
SONAR is having the best quarter in years. One of my board members asked if I were concerned about the rise of AI and if it would be a drain our data business. I told her that we are seeing...
USNS Mercy Heads Toward Panama Canal, Not Greenland
Hospital Ship Update: Latest AIS data shows USNS Mercy making a steady south-southeast run across the central Gulf towards the Yucatán Channel — pointing to the Panama Canal, not Greenland. https://t.co/LOKjvzQxcI
Trucking Fleets Peaked June 2023, Now on Decline
The number of trucking fleets increased over the past 20 years, without slowing down. That all changed in June 2023, when the number of fleets peaked and has dropped ever since. We expect that number to continue to shrink over...
Compliance Crackdown Reshapes US Carrier Market, Says RXO CEO
RXO CEO: the compliance crack down is the biggest structural change to the U.S. carrier market since industry deregulation https://t.co/72I5GCAt7d
Dalilah Law Could Double Trucking Rates, Cut Drivers
Trucking rates could enter a super cycle if The Dalilah Law passes in Congress. A doubling of trucking spot rates would be possible and the effects felt almost immediately with approx 20% of the truck driver population being...
Proposed Law Threatens Trucking Capacity by Revoking Non‑Citizen CDLs
This law, if passed, would immediately revoke CDLs for non citizens or those that don’t have lawful permanent residency or work permits. It wills be far more impactful to trucking capacity than any other action, largely because it is immediate and...
Carrier‑engineered Congestion Fuels Blank Sailings, Dropping Rates
Carriers engineering congestion. Blank sailings. Empty ships and soft supply chain demand. To lesson rate drop.
Nvidia’s HBM Grab Mirrors Apple’s iPod Storage Monopoly
Been hearing via supply chain friendlies, NVIDIA has secured most of the HBM, making it scarce for competitors. Reminds me of iPod days when Apple secured all the storage as others were trying to compete with them in MP3 players.
Supreme Court Tariff Win Boosts Ports—But Likely Short‑Lived
Moody's: Port Import Gains From Supreme Court Tariff Ruling May Prove Fleeting. And supply chains? https://t.co/MTwlEv05YS
Undoing Theft Is Hard, yet Still Unjustifiable
"It’s hard to undo almost a year’s worth of theft, but that doesn’t make theft permissible." 🔥 https://t.co/AiOvVFnwCJ https://t.co/S2CR1IBtrL
South Korea Partnership Boosts U.S. Shipbuilding Capacity
“Working with South Korea brings industrial capacity to the US and will allow America to press fast forward on shipbuilding,” Alex Wong, Hanwha https://t.co/BIwicYBkDb
Rare Metals Power Massive Data Centers and National Security
To build a data center the size of Manhattan, as Mr. Zuckerberg intends to, we need some metals that you’ve probably never heard of in quantities than you cannot fathom… These metals are not just 1 or 2 letters on your...
US, South Korea, Greece Unveil Major Shipbuilding Partnership
At DOT with Ambassador Guilfoyl, Alex Wong and US Merchant Marine Commandant Steve Carmel for a big shipbuilding announcement between the US, South Korea and Greece. Stay tuned to @gCaptain for details coming soon. https://t.co/TkMB2MwgEI
Tariff Hikes Boost Inflation Expectations, Curb Durable Purchases
New @ClevFedResearch paper finds US tariff hikes & tariff uncertainty increase consumers' inflation expectations, while uncertainty "strongly discourage[s] consumers from buying durables, especially cars and big-ticket items." https://t.co/IhbQU2Pc4M https://t.co/6C1XUPmqch
Mercy Hospital Ship Heading Toward Panama Canal, Not Greenland
I hate to break it to you, folks… Mercy's AIS Track Points to Panama Canal—Not Greenland—as Hospital Ship Steams South https://t.co/EJNcVSIlSm
Spot Market Overtakes Contracts, Signaling Freight Recession End
The spot market is finally crossing over and passing the contract market. Why does this matter? Because it provides the best data we've seen yet that the Great Freight Recession is ending. Is this a blip or a permanent shift? Is @rxoinc...
Scrutinize Defense Procurement, Invest Across Supply Chain
Germany’s @_FriedrichMerz is right to scrutinize defense #procurement—which can be rather murky. Spending w/ start-ups & young cos. will likely foster innovation, though the money should spread across the #supplychain. Via @laurapitel & @ChassNews @FT https://t.co/MFeG0WiDwx
Strategic Reserve Could Stabilize Mineral Markets, Unlock Capital
Last night’s State of the Union address tied AI dominance to power plants, permits, and domestic mining. Earlier in the day, the House Energy & Minerals Subcommittee debated how to actually fix the mineral markets behind that ambition via the SECURE...
Even Dissenting Judges Agree Section 122 Inapplicable Today
"Even the dissenting judges on the Court of Appeals who upheld the [IEEPA] tariffs found Section 122 doesn’t apply to current international circumstances" https://t.co/nWGSiYpBLN https://t.co/RgrI9hEpxx
China Warns US Trade Probe Could Spark New War
China warns about US trade probe. And tariffs. Will there be another trade war? And what then for supply chains?
Brace for the Next Trade Storm After Tariff Blizzard
After the Tariff Blizzard, Are You Ready for the Next Storm? - https://t.co/syg5yLFZmi @joinindago #TrumpTariffs #IEEPA #SupremeCourt #globaltrade #supplychain #logistics #tradecompliance
AI Turns Reverse Logistics From Cost to Competitive Edge
New article from McKinsey - From cost center to competitive advantage: Modernizing reverse logistics with AI https://t.co/Ukil6mBCjn
US Policies Amplify Global Inflation Beyond Shared Goods
"How U.S.-Centric is the Inflation Problem?" https://t.co/536nv3SjWg "whatever common elements are shared by globally traded consumer and business goods have been augmented by country-specific decisions in the United States, Germany, and Canada." https://t.co/QflnhV9CDt
Treasury Secretary Admits Tariffs Pretext, Investigations Reverse‑engineered
Also, it's nice to see the Treasury Secretary openly admit the new Section 301 investigations will be reverse-engineered to justify new tariffs. Not even a hint that the investigation might go negative. It's all just a pretext. https://t.co/HDwm3f4gpE https://t.co/U1olE8kLdE
Bessent Hints at IEEPA Tariff Refunds, Slams FedEx CEO
Maybe a small bit of good news in Bessent's latest comments on IEEPA tariff refunds (along with a pathetic smear of FedEx's CEO) https://t.co/fhxh3BfgSM https://t.co/TscpCKYG6i https://t.co/9s3Wfx6jGn
US May Seize Chip Foundries Amid China‑US GPU Race
This isn’t new. Here’s an article from 2024. US Generals have publicly indicated 2027, but the recent PLA leadership purge should be alarming. And China realizes they need bleeding edge GPU to keep pace with US models and datacenters. Alarmed...
Congo’s Sovereignty, Not Ownership, Controls Cobalt Supply
China’s cobalt strategy assumed that owning mines guaranteed supply. Congo’s export controls show that sovereignty trumps ownership. China controls processing; Congo controls the tap. https://t.co/sBpdLF03jS #Cobalt #CriticalMinerals #China #SupplyChains #Geopolitics @ctindale
UK’s Single Trade Window: Shaping Tomorrow’s Customs Efficiency
I wrote a short blog on the future of the UK’s Single Trade Window on the back of last week’s FT article co-authored by @pmdfoster /1 https://t.co/b4rmt3AXzu
Bureaucracy Stifles Innovation: Decision Latency Kills Supply Chains
🔴 Red Tape is quietly killing innovation in your business. Here's how. Let me be blunt. In most companies I've worked with — across continents, across industries — the biggest enemy of innovation isn't a lack of ideas. It's bureaucracy. Red tape. The...
Mercy Heads South From Mobile Toward Yucatan Channel
Mercy is in the Gulf and heading south from Mobile. She is not showing her next destination, but is on course for the Yucatan Channel. https://t.co/jURUO0nrgF
China’s Scale‑Subsidy Strategy Decimates Global Industries
China didn’t compete. It demolished entire industries through one ruthless strategy: build massive scale, use subsidies and currency manipulation, export at prices no one can match. Furniture, Solar Panels, Telecom Infrastructure, Textiles, Toys, etc. Gone. And 10 more industries are already under attack. My...
US Rolls Out Pax Silica to Safeguard AI Silicon Supply
US launches Pax Silica to secure polysilicon inputs and expand allied semiconductor partnerships for AI growth. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/pax-silica-silicon-supply-chain.html
Import Terminal Repurposed by Fracking Boom
Fun fact: this was originally built as an IMPORT terminal. Then the fracking revolution happened and they had to reverse course. 🇺🇸
Fear Outpaces Greed: New Data Confirms
Flexport's tariff refunds webinar today had 2,305 attendees compared with 2,339 attendees for the Liberation Day webinar after the tariffs were first announced. Fear is a bigger driver than greed, now statistically confirmed.
Uranium Enrichment Capacity, Not Reactors, Limits Supply
Uranium enrichment is running straight into a hard physical bottleneck Enrichment capacity, not reactors, is the constraint The US is still deeply dependent on Russian enrichment https://t.co/UzZh17Lcy5 #NuclearEnergy #Uranium #EnergySecurity #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics
Hegseth Threatens to Label Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk
There's a word for this. Starts with an F. "Hegseth said he could label [Anthropic] a supply-chain risk, a move typically reserved for companies linked to adversaries, or invoke the Defense Production Act to force the company to work with the...
Tariffs Boost Steel Jobs, Undermine U.S. Manufacturing
"Trump’s Tariffs Are Adding Steel Mill Jobs, and Crushing American Factories" https://t.co/EdQKmnKPzv You guys will never believe this, but heavily taxing a vital manufacturing input isn't good for manufacturing. https://t.co/6IRvgAXzPH
Five Probable Paths to End Ukraine War
As the conflict enters its fifth year, I’ve mapped the most credible pathways to how it ends: ceasefire, collapse, escalation... Five scenarios. Assigned probabilities. Clear drivers and risk implications. My latest Substack is below, or the link is in my bio. https://open.substack.com/pub/geopoliticalguy/p/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
Germany's De‑risking From China Exposes Costly Dependencies
Germany is finding out that “de-risking” from China is painful when dependencies have previously been knowingly created. Chinese price advantages & deliberate dumping are hurting German cos. via @JamesAngelos @Jordyn_Dahl @POLITICOEurope https://t.co/g7oYgu9xEX
VCs Misuse Dual‑use Hype; Stop Relying on Grants
Certainly GTM is very different. And there are supply chain issues in current environment. Would add: NOT doing dual use is not an excuse to rely on grants and research money, stuff becoming too expensive, and not being able to...