Know What's Happening in American Stocks
Know What's Happening in American Stocks
S&P 500 climbs 3% on Trump‑Iran talks and easing oil prices
The S&P 500 jumped 3% on Tuesday, marking its strongest weekly gain since November and ending a five‑week decline. The rally was driven by President Trump’s remarks on a possible US‑Iran cease‑fire and a temporary dip in oil prices, while the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF stays 7% below its January peak.
Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan raised FedEx's price target to $412 from $328 and kept a Buy rating after the company's 2026 Investor Day outlined a mid‑term roadmap to 2029. FedEx targets 4% compound‑annual revenue growth and an 8% operating margin, aiming for $98 billion in revenue and $8 billion in operating income by 2029. Morgan Stanley also nudged its target to $220, highlighting expected growth after the Network 2.0 rollout in early 2027. The strategic plan emphasizes premium verticals, AI‑driven digital services, and network redesign to lift profitability.
RBC Capital raised its price target on Prologis to $135, up from $132, after the REIT posted a fourth‑quarter FFO beat and signaled stronger market conditions. Analyst Michael Carroll reiterated a Sector Perform rating, citing confidence in the company’s expanding...
⚠️US Dollar weakness is historically BAD news for US stocks: AVERAGE ANNUALIZED RETURNS during the 5 major Dollar bear markets since 1967: S&P 500: +6.4% annualized Gold: +43.1% annualized EM stocks: +23.7% annualized👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
The so‑called "Magnificent Seven" mega‑cap stocks have broken a critical support level and are now testing the 200‑day moving average. Their relative performance chart is forming an inverted saucer top, a pattern often seen before sharper declines. Analysts warn that...
Recall @HalftimeReport Slink's confidentally quoting (on almost a daily basis) of the robust GDP Now projections by the Atlanta Fed (among the worst forecasters extant) to support her "the economy is great" and bullish market thesis? That is the...
The Supreme Court Ruling In a 6–3 decision (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump), the Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 does not give the President the authority to impose tariffs.
Employers Holdings (EIG) posted a Q4 2025 loss of $23.4 million, with revenue slipping 21.3% year‑over‑year to $170.5 million. The full‑year net income collapsed from $118.6 million in 2024 to $10.8 million, while the GAAP combined ratio deteriorated to 106% in the quarter and...
I joined the @MilkRoadMacro show this week. Laid out why we remain overweight equities, but you want to still own other parts of the 🌍. https://t.co/X8faci8XLY
JPMORGAN: “.. many trade deals negotiated to date have relied on IEEPA tariffs and have not yet been formalized as trade agreements. With the legal basis for these tariffs now invalidated, the fate of these deals is in question. These...
DoubleLine strategists Ryan Kimmel and Mark Kimbrough highlighted a sector rotation this week, with communications services, financials and industrials gaining while traditional “old economy” sectors such as utilities and real estate fell. In fixed income, investment‑grade yields edged higher, but...
Wall Street is bracing for President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new 10% global tariff after the Supreme Court ruled his earlier IEEPA tariffs unlawful. The decision could spark lengthy refund litigation for importers and may give the Federal Reserve...
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s emergency tariffs, sending the S&P 500 up 0.69% to 6,909 and the Dow up 230 points. The decision lifted a macro headwind for import‑dependent consumer‑discretionary firms, with Nike, Yeti and SharkNinja posting gains....
The Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in a 6‑3 decision, covering both reciprocal trade‑deficit tariffs and fentanyl‑related duties. Over half of the tariff revenue collected in recent years...
Lawrence G. McMillan notes the S&P 500 is trapped in a tight range, with resistance near 7,000 and support between 6,720 and 6,800. Equity‑only put‑call ratios have risen to their most bearish levels since late January, indicating heavy downside protection...
⚠️Apple has almost NEVER decoupled from its Tech Peers like this before: $AAPL, 40-day price correlation with the Nasdaq 100 dropped to 0.2, the lowest since 2006. This is down from 0.92 in May 2025, a truly historic divergence. This comes as Apple...
An equity risk premium which has recently turned into an equity risk discount. (Historically, an awful launnching pad for future returns) Policy turmoil, slowing domestic economic growth, sticky inflation, circular financing deals in AI (holding up the econ data) and traditional...
The Federal Reserve’s January FOMC minutes confirm that inflation remains entrenched in the United States, contrary to earlier optimism. Core consumer‑price index rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, keeping annual inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. The minutes show policymakers acknowledging persistent price...
A fun(?) 🧵 on how nerdy government accounting rules had a big impact on Q4 GDP. And how they reflect how wasteful the 43-day government shutdown was. TL;DR: Small reduction in nominal federal spending in Q4. But a big decline in...
🚨 GOLD DEEP DIVE | FEB 20, 2026 🚨 Gold: $5,048/oz (+1.25% today | +71.82% YoY) Silver: $81.94 (+151% YoY) GDX Miners ETF: $104.23 (+21% YTD) The most telling signal: gold is surging today while stocks ALSO rally on the Supreme Court tariff ruling....
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations. This marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in the preceding quarter and is the slowest expansion since...
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
The market sentiment for Humanity flipped bearish 2 days ago. Support is identified, offering a compelling short opportunity of approximately 35% (more with leverage). #Trading #ShortOpportunity #IvanClips https://t.co/vNtVS3D8mw
$NCI never doubt spider sense 😎 Nice long bias today @IUTraders for potential $BNAI Friday night replication. https://t.co/sEPvEtmdVc
Mystery solved via Ben re the $17b in $IQMM on Day One. The call is coming from inside the house, literally, ProShares own funds are all now using IQMM now for their cash positions. Big time BYOA and not as...
Historic Dispersion From Growth To Value Rotation - some quant talk to highlight growing risks in market structure. #CTA #IRAN $NVDA https://t.co/ZcfZDnpE7l
Prepping for presentation I found this slide from last year, it's a bit strong but I stand by it re what will be the main impact of MFs adding on ETF share classes (which should kick off in next few...
Since our bullish call on Korea last August… EWY +99.27% SPY +7.78% Money counting time. https://t.co/EKTw9HANNh
$SPX closed back above 6900 to end the week. $GOOGL $AMZN and $NFLX powered the rally, silver surged 8%, and I tackled viewer questions on $CAT entries, $MSFT Fibonacci risk, $ENPH breakout and the Hindenburg Omen. Full CHART THIS Mailbag: https://t.co/HpUIXN5kHi https://t.co/AiL2WR6RDf
In my weekly markets video for clients, I highlighted how investors have gone from “7 to Staples”. Usually, growing macro risks lead to Staples leadership. This time macro isn’t the issue, but it could be due to Mag 7’s idiosyncratic...
That was just the highest weekly close in the history of the NYSE Composite Index https://t.co/jxcFWw2qDi
T-minus 5 days until $NVDA reports. I expect guidance to come in ahead of expectations for CY26. That said, the real question is: what about 2027? My take: Growth in CY27 will be closer to 40% vs. the Street at...
Another Friday, another “Friday Night Dirty” from @VD718 @Seawolfcap & myself from our “WAWD” Substack. A throwback to “Electric Company”: $CVNA $OWL & you will be hearing the name “Vipin Arora” who heads the BEA which is responsible for reporting...
ludacris day means that sometime in the day the s and p turns negative after being substantially higher. the s and p did turn negative (briefly) qualifying as a ludacris day.
S and P now down on the day (reversing 45 handles in last few minutes) From an hour ago... on @thestreetpro Dougie Kass Ludacris Day? @dougkass
Markets flat near the highs + valuations near the upper end of history. Tom Martin of Globalt breaks down what that actually means—and what could sustain (or break) it in 2026! Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/nA9bmU87rf...
Value ex-US ripping again this year, spreading to US value too. Not a lot of discussion about it in my world yet. Every advisor we speak to still way underallocated relative to benchmark...
TTMI, GLW, COHR, LITE, CIEN, FN AI connectivity group stays super hot to close the week
Markets can be tricky... SCOTUS tariffs ruling giveth...then taketh away... SPDR S&P Retail ETF intraday...upside volatility...that has been slowly eroded in the last 45 min...now trading where it was before announcement. Let's see how things shake out by closing bell 🤔 $XRT https://t.co/d2XrrhSSlC
With tensions high around Iran, here's an updated table of major geopolitical events and how the stock market did after. Yes, some of them definitely caused volatility, but the longer-term median returns are fairly normal. https://t.co/477EvHtgAn
$amzn nice week. RDR Tuesday around $197 pivot. Cleared $207 and now it’s $210+ to manage.
$GE Feb 330/350 call spreads from earnings snapshots now near $13 from $7, often pays to give extra time when playing a high quality name
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
CHART OF THE DAY: This Is A First Round Knockout, YTD We Are Crushing The Competition https://t.co/ohQwlRHqY4 via @hedgeye
"...$7.7 trillion ain’t what it used to be: Compared with the combined market capitalization of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, he points out that it’s on the low side, at about 12%." @Spencerjakab https://t.co/dd4PRJs203 https://t.co/f2BPA4Qw7V
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
