Know What's Happening in American Stocks
Know What's Happening in American Stocks
S&P 500 may find a 6,000 floor by May, analyst says
Analyst Mark Hulbert predicts the S&P 500 could settle around 6,000 by May, marking the low point of the current market correction. He cautions that the brief rally on March 31 and April 1 was typical of weak markets and may not indicate a lasting recovery.
Lawrence Fuller reviews recent economic data, highlighting a strong finish to the year in housing starts and building permits, though noting a four‑year decline trend. He points out a better‑than‑expected 0.7% rise in January industrial production, driven by consumer goods manufacturing and tax‑law‑induced depreciation acceleration. Fuller emphasizes that these positive changes set the stage for tomorrow’s pivotal Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index release, which he views as the key gauge of consumer health and inflation.
Value now of $1 invested 25 years ago: Monster Beverage: $8,025 Apple: $779 Nvidia: $761 Amazon: $301 Booking .com $217 Autozone $144 Sherwin-Williams:42 Caterpillar $35 Deere $29 Costco $23 Lowe’s $20 Starbucks $16 Adobe: $14 Microsoft: $14 McDonald’s $11 Nike: $10
The episode opens with a market snapshot and escalating US‑Iran tensions before diving into earnings from DoorDash (DASH), Booking Holdings (BKNG), eBay (EBAY), Carvana (CVNA) and FIG. DoorDash reported strong 4Q25 growth in gross order value and EBITDA but missed...
📺 STOP WAITING FOR THE BREAKOUT, TRADE THE RANGE FOR NOW Get today's newsletter: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F My core message to everyone today: stop expecting big follow-through and start trading the range that’s actually in front of you. That’s the environment right now: quick pushes,...
Amazon reported $716.9 billion in 2025 revenue, overtaking Walmart's $713.2 billion for the first time. The shift ends Walmart's 13‑year streak as Fortune's top‑revenue company and highlights Amazon's transformation into a tech‑services powerhouse. Growth is now driven by Amazon Web Services, advertising...
(In contrast to the bullish view expressed yesterday on the Fin TV show - see SLINK's confident consumer outlook on @cnbc), we remain cautious on the consumer. This week we put on a three way pairs trade - long $AMZN/Short $COST...
Uber announced it will tighten driver background checks by permanently barring anyone convicted of violent felonies, sexual offenses, and child or elder abuse, regardless of how long ago the crime occurred. The move follows a New York Times investigation that...
Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $67,202 after reports Nvidia will supply Meta with large‑quantity processors, lifting tech and semiconductor stocks. Jefferies highlighted Chinese AI startup MiniMax’s strong model performance and cost‑effective architecture, initiating coverage with a buy rating and a HK$1,118...
The Dow Jones slipped Thursday as investors weighed fresh earnings reports and a sharp rally in oil prices. Brent crude surged up to $72 a barrel, its highest level since the summer, driven by heightened geopolitical tension surrounding U.S. naval...
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...
The episode examines Live Nation’s (LYV) recent legal landscape, focusing on a summary judgment that could keep the company’s proposed breakup off the table. It breaks down the court’s reasoning, the potential financial and operational impacts for Live Nation, and...
One more note on the Fed minutes: Sometimes it's interesting what they don't say. Last year at every meeting until December, the staff forecast called for inflation to return to 2% by 2027. In December, the forecast pushed this back to...
If you’re a $HOOD investor, you’ve probably suffered a wild ride in recent months. The company just issued its latest earnings, which reminded the market of the dangers of Robinhood’s business model.
Home Depot, Lowe’s and Amazon together captured 56% of the U.S. home‑improvement market in 2025, leaving independent hardware retailers struggling. Independent stores such as C&H Hardware and the 53‑year‑old Blossom True Value in Mountain View have shut down or announced...
Chart of the Week - Defensives With tech in trouble (+a number of macro risks lurking on the horizon), defensives are starting to look interesting… Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 —after...
S&P 500 is up 77% over the last 5 years. These tech stocks didn't beat it: Amazon: +27% Netflix: +46% And these stocks got destroyed: Nike: -55% Disney: -42% PayPal: -86% Shopify: -18% Past winners aren't always future winners.
The equal‑weighted S&P 500 continues a well‑defined uptrend, indicating intermediate‑term bullish momentum. In contrast, the broader, cap‑weighted U.S. equity averages remain confined to tight trading ranges, reflecting short‑term indecision. Meanwhile, the VVIX—volatility of the VIX—has stayed above the 100 threshold, underscoring...
Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH
We're LIVE with my accountable teammates - kicking things off with a BUY Hershey $HSY rundown by Biolsi @Hedgeye_Staples , also analyzing toilet paper
The Nasdaq Composite posted the strongest advance among U.S. indexes, rising 0.8% as risk‑on sentiment persisted amid solid earnings and encouraging economic data. Federal Reserve officials remain divided on rates, while housing starts jumped 6.2% to a five‑month high and...
How much confidence do you have in $BRK.B now that it sells its Apple stock to buy the New York Times? For me, it is time to sell Berkshire https://t.co/YR01TZTPdL
Despite the NYSE Advance-Decline line hitting new all-time highs again yesterday, the American Association of Individual Investors reported this morning that there are actually more bears the bulls for the first time since Thanksgiving. What do you think they're so...
In this episode the host reviews a recent earnings event and observes that the stock is stabilizing, hinting at potential upward momentum. To capitalize on this, they outline a covered‑call strategy that generates upfront premium, reduces the effective cost basis,...
The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years, and is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets in that next few years. This points to why this could challenge the broader industry:...
BofA Clients Sold Stocks at Near-Historic Levels via Bbrg: “Clients dumped US equities last week, with outflows reaching near-historic levels.” “Outflows were the *third highest* since records began in 2008.” [$8.3 Billion] *Who will be right: Retail/HFs or Institutions?
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring...
Bitcoin's drop has coincided with a decline in the Russell 1000's Pure Growth P/E. What do they have in common? Both are long-duration, and are being shunned during the underlying rotation into shorter-duration (cyclical) securities (think value, dividend payers, Energy...
Bearish RSI divergences can hint at a major top — but only if price & key levels confirm. Momentum can fade while price still grinds higher. Patience & confirmation are essential. My latest article on @StockCharts: https://t.co/sDlIJ3WADG
‘No landing’ has emerged as the prevailing global macro outlook, suggesting the economy will remain in a state of indefinite uncertainty rather than a clear recession or recovery. The author points to persistent inflation, aggressive AI investment, and AI‑induced job...
Recent rotation has helped resolve some of U.S. large cap stocks’ valuation excesses, but risks remain to the downside for U.S. multiples. Large cap growth’s sales multiple is still near its all-time high, at about 6X, and growth’s earnings multiple may...
Software is getting hit on fear of substitution more than evidence of structural deterioration in enterprise spending. When price action gets ahead of reality, the re-rating can be violent if the narrative cools.
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world. That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their...
I was astonished that Bryn Talkington's feet were not held to the fire today after she recommended (confidentally) $PANW yesterday. Four hours later the company guided lower and the stock tanked. Does the network basically not give a shit (about their most...
The show panelists (don't be shocked, they are bullish) love retail/consumer stocks - we shorted $COST and $WMT in the last 24 hours. We are looking for more consumer shorts. We believe lower home and stock prices will take away from the...
Here's ETF flows for the first six weeks of the year historically. This year is off to the best start almost by double. One reason is growing depth of cash vacuum cleaners. VOO, SPYM hoovering as always but there's already...
⚠️Almost everybody is piling into the SAME TRADE: Hedge fund net allocation to Magnificent 7 stocks is up to a RECORD 22%. This is more than DOUBLE the level seen in 2022. At the same time, these stocks remain among the most popular...
Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 meeting laid bare a lingering divide over where to set the bar for further rate cuts. In Fed speak, "some" is larger than "several" which means the group of "some" officials that includes those with...
Can Micron do it again? $MU heading back towards record territory as memory shortages continue.
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
WHAT A DAY, the S&P 500 has gained around $500 BILLION in market cap, up 0.8%. The index is now up 0.3% YTD 📈 Gold is also trading higher, back above $5,000/oz, as global tensions start to escalate 😳 Mark your calendars...
Last year, the S&P 500 gained 16.4%, but if you missed the best 10 days that dropped to minus 9.5%. Since '90, stocks have gained 7.7% a year, but if you missed the 10 best days each year? It goes down...
Key paragraph of the FOMC minutes from January. (I am honestly a bit confused by the 'minutes math.') The main takeaway is that there is considerable disagreement. Cut, hold, and (even possibly) hike all got a nod. https://t.co/eV9ldjldl1 https://t.co/K53g1yqKJ8
4 new Real-Time Alerts (2 Longs, 2 Shorts) fired off today Every. Single. One. #timestamped since 2008 https://t.co/alAFTYikLd
FWIW - The sentiment data suggests its not a "boomcession" we're experiencing but a "maniapression." Those at the top can't put enough into the markets, while those at the bottom fall further and further behind on their loans.
Herbalife $HLF apparently is AI-proof Nice move since 11/20 when they came hard for calls and it continues https://t.co/G7vt2JRhuJ
Periods of high return dispersion are an opportunity for investors. As return performance gaps widen and valuation spreads develop, the ability to quantify the current rotation regime and anticipate the next one can deliver outperformance relative to...
While the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have SUFFERED in 2026, GOLD IS UP over 13%. It's time to turn away from SILLY VALLEY. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/PZTIJFhPOp
The Great Rotation: From Growth to Asset Rich Value My job is timing sector rotation & picking the best stocks long/short within it. That & sizing up macro event risk & market structure support. That's how I could time the...
