Oversold Markets Call for Tactical Trades, Steady Investing
$SPX is ~10% off highs and QQQ ~11%, with many names 40–60% off, so it feels like we’re close to an oversold bounce but still not seeing traction. If you trade for a living, be tactical and pick spots carefully; if you invest, stay the course with monthly flows and be ready to space it out.
Market Breadth Holds Despite Universal Index Red Days
Every index closed red yesterday — but breadth didn't make a new low. Stocks above the 20-day, McClellan Oscillator, and 40-day all held. Divergence worth watching. https://t.co/qZQl08IwnK
TRACE Reveals Massive Negative Gamma, Expect Intraday Volatility
This is TRACE, the most accurate SPX GEX map you can get. It also updates faster than any GEX map 😏. Remember: +50% of SPX flow is 0DTE and so if you are tracking gamma, you need to see that...
Bellwether Index Hits Year‑to‑Date Lows, Leading Stocks Falter
The Bellwether stock index just broke to year-to-date lows. The market’s most important stocks are starting to roll over. https://t.co/HYKpegS8Sa
S&P Sector Breadth Hits Cycle Low, Participation Declines
Breadth just made a new cycle low. Only 36% of S&P sectors are above their 200-day average. Participation keeps deteriorating... https://t.co/MmLbtricNf
Average S&P Stock Falls 20% vs 9% Index Drop
The index is down 9% from its highs. But the average S&P 500 stock is down 20%. The damage under the surface is much deeper. https://t.co/AQyL2MnwTL
All US Indexes Below Key Averages, Trendless Market
No trends left in this market... None of the six major US stock indexes is above any key moving average. The entire market sits below trend. Do the bulls take it back? 👉 https://t.co/snpaC8nOF1 https://t.co/Ja5b34Ybbm
Russell IWM Poised for Bounce After 11.2% Q3 Drop
Post an -11.2% #Quad3 Drawdown, let's see how much they can bounce the Russell $IWM this morning
Bearish on SPX, Awaiting 5‑7% Pullback Before Selling
SPX ( US500 ) : I remain bearish but as I said for Gold ; due to no new G.P escalation over the weekend , due to EOM & EOQ flows & due to extreme bearish positioning / fear , I am...
Analyst Predicted TWI's S&P600 Removal—Now Confirmed
Teammember Anjana Amasuriya who does S&P500/400/600 predictions (among other things) earlier wrote an update saying he expected TWI to get the boot from SP600 when the Versigent spinoff came. Last night it was announced as such. https://t.co/USzrxfAXkE
Bear Markets Start Fast; Current Dip Is Unusually Slow
Could the S&P 500 go down 20%? Anything is possible, but looking at the other 11 bear markets since the S&P 500 became 500 stocks shows that they usually start with a quick drop from ATHs. In fact, down 5% in only...
Trump’s Iran Fatigue May Halt Market Bleed, Futures Rise
Trump getting bored of the Iran "excursion" only thing that will stem the market bleed. Futures up 0.8%
Bullish Divergence Signals Short‑term Nasdaq, S&P Bounce
We have an interesting development after today's action and close. NYMO entered oversold territory last week but NAMO still has not. However, today we're sitting at a potential bullish divergence in that the indices close red to extend last week's...
Oversold SPX Signals Potential Bounce, VIX Also Falling
#SPX: Be careful about being too bearish in the short term, as the $VIX also closed in the red. The similarity to 2025 is impressive, especially with the RSI below 30 and the lower Bollinger Band breached; both oversold conditions...
Semis Break Support, Software Slides, QQQ Near Bottom
"Semis" cracked support of its 4-mth H&S today which i spoke about a bit last week but bears repeating. While $QQQ getting closer to support, this is notable short-term headwind as Software has roundtripped from Feb while $SMH and...
Fragile Markets Reward Patient Bears Amid Rising Risks
Fragile Markets For Banks, Bonds & OPEX $XLF $TLT $SPX Shorts on "support" but markets are not safe. Rising #crudeoil, yields, dollar & VIX still reward patient bears. OPEX flows may offer brief stabilization - emphasis on *may*. https://t.co/XIcBupeCGG
40‑Day, 5% Pullback Guarantees No Bear Market
Very interesting stat from @StovallCFRA on @CNBCTheExchange with @LesliePicker today. When it takes >40 days for the S&P 500 to have a mild 5% pullback, it has never moved into a bear market. https://t.co/9Yjk8jEYOD
Midday Rally Fades as Bond and Gold Risks Rise
Stocks were up on the day when we recorded this midday on Wall St, but growth risk dynamics in bonds and gold suggested they'd struggle to hold up. The S&P 500 gave up gains by day's end, Nasdaq closed down,...
S&P Could Drop $6,000 to Liberation Day Lows
"The downside can be around $6,000 in the S&P. That would take you to 'Liberation Day' lows." @ramahluwalia https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
Markets Tumble: Is War Driving Deeper Correction?
5 straight down weeks. S&P -7% YTD. Nasdaq in correction. Is this just war… or something bigger? https://t.co/PMWscZMbTn
SPY Closes After Morning Strength Sale, New Reference Point Set
$spy post close as the morning strength was sold. We did get a new point of reference https://t.co/1rDzWM0HtZ
Dow Reaches 2024 High, Puts Boomers to Test
The Dow is back at the 2024 high. This is a big test for boomers. $DJI $DIA https://t.co/WC4vkunASs
Market Index Hides Sector Dispersion in Late Cycle
The market loves one big number. The real story is dispersion: sectors ripping apart while the index masks it. That’s late-cycle behavior with better branding. https://t.co/pbx2LGChSN
Big Tech Slide Drags S&P 500 Down 16% YTD
Mag 7 Malaise: What Big Tech’s Slide Means for the S&P 500 $SPY My Monday $MAGS musings on @stockcharts ... which is now -16.4% YTD https://t.co/hrMFx68w4r https://t.co/5qnmDHeO0y
Lower Rates Lift Yield‑Sensitive S&P Sectors, Not Small‑Caps
Lower rates today helping yield-sensitive S&P 500 sectors.. but not the small caps... 8/11 SPX sector ETFs up with the index -0.15% https://t.co/1d07AUB0cD
S&P 500’s YTD Dip Could Rank Second‑worst Since 2009
The S&P 500 is currently down 6.6% on the year If it finished the year at those levels (a big if) it would be the second worst year since 2009 To be fair there have only been 2 down years in that...
S&P 500 Endures Its Worst Quarter in Four Years
This looks to be the worst quarter for the S&P 500 in nearly four years. https://t.co/k9hOEkNWoU
NYA Bull Trend Holds, Testing Rising Channel Top
Bull trend remains in play for the $NYA index Testing the top of its rising channel with RSI a little lofty. $SPY $QQQ $TLT https://t.co/toEmLdxINB
Powell Says Fed Tools Can't Curb Supply Shocks, Halting Hikes
*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS This is in my opinion the right take, and it completely punctures the probability of rate hikes in the US. They are going to sit this one through
Opening SPY Strength Sold Off; Mixed, Unconvincing Market
$spy morning glance as opening strength was sold in first 30 minutes. Very mixed stock action. Not very compelling https://t.co/YdmQWdWFF2
Liquidity, Not Valuation, Drives SPY's Downward Moves
$SPY can be ‘cheap’ and still go lower. Valuation isn’t a catalyst. Liquidity is. And liquidity doesn’t care about your spreadsheet. https://t.co/pbRg1YLM5V
Market Erases $400B as Trump Peace Hopes Fade
$400 BILLION HAS BEEN WIPED OUT FROM THE U.S. STOCK MARKET IN THE LAST HOUR. The market does not seem to believe Trump's peace talks anymore. 👀 https://t.co/FWqmUuUglS
Energy Rally Signals Macro Stress, Not Rotation
Energy leadership is getting absurd: XLE/SPY up ~42% in 3 months. That’s not a ‘rotation’. That’s a macro stress signal wearing an equity costume. https://t.co/QVnWJHwVgi
Big Tech's YTD Decline Outpaces S&P, Margins Squeeze
Big Tech is selling off faster than the market. S&P 500 -6.9% YTD Big Tech (MAGS) -15.9% YTD $MSFT -26.2% YTD Capex hit $37.5B in a single quarter. Gross margins dropped to 68% (3-year low). Free cash flow is under pressure. AI is scaling,...
Trump Pump Fades as Market Doubts President, Capitulation Looming
As expected, the "Trump Pump" losing its power... All pops being sold into aggressively, the market no longer trusting the President's words. A final flush (capitulation) likely lies ahead before a durable reversal.
War and AI Doubts Split S&P Price From Earnings
S&P 500 12M forward earnings estimates 8% S&P 500 8% War and AI doubts have fueled an unprecedented divergence between stock prices and earnings estimates https://t.co/op1buWsF30 https://t.co/F9QcLD2WC2
S&P 500’s War‑Era Sell‑Off Remains Surprisingly Orderly
This feels like the most orderly sell-off of all time These are the daily moves in the S&P 500 since the start of the war No big down days yet at all https://t.co/atbg2iids3
S&P 500 Valuation Drops 17% as Earnings Surge 14%
Worth pointing out that the $SPX multiple has compressed 17% and now stands at 19x forward estimates. And at the same time earning are accelerating and are now expected to grow 14% y/y.
War Triggers Divergent Market Moves: Stocks Fall, Oil Soars
How markets have performed since February 28 (start of the Iran war) 🔴 SP500 -7.5% 🔴 MAG 7 -6.5% 🔴 Gold -13% 🟢 Bitcoin +3% 🟢 (WTI) Oil +53% 🟢 (Brent) Oil +50% 🔴 10 yr US Treasury Yields ~+25–40 bps 🟢 VIX +50% So much winning https://t.co/YpeGMs8fpe
Top Stocks Shift Since Israel‑U.S. Iran Conflict
here's the % change of the biggest stocks since the Israel/U.S. vs. Iran war started: https://t.co/SuIscwwQ0w
ATR Model Flags First Bearish S&P Signal Since 2025
my S&P 500 $SPX ATR model turned upwards last week, creating the first bearish equity signal since early 2025... #DCATR https://t.co/d12cVeyvwP
Expect SPY to Rebound From $633 to $650
The last oversold $spy bounce went from $647 to $661ish If this does the same. It can go from $633 to $650ish. We will go day by day. Map out levels. And we’ll see how certain stocks and groups...
War Spurs Record EPS Upswings Across All Sectors, Tech Leads
Wild chart from @WSJmarkets here. Since the war started, all 11 sectors now have higher 12-month EPS forecasts than before and tech EPS had one of the largest jumps in EPS estimates in history. 🤔 https://t.co/ObyETJ4E3o
Bears Dominate: NYSE Posts 17 Consecutive Low‑High Imbalance
New lows are taking over NYSE new lows > new highs for 17 straight sessions. The bears control participation. When does the new low list stop expanding? 👉 https://t.co/TDXk8SmB1d https://t.co/h2g2QbQ4x9
Most S&P 500 Stocks Slide 10%, Half Drop 20%
76% of the S&P 500 stocks are down 10% from their highs. Nearly half the market is down 20%... https://t.co/gojXiterri
Earnings Cycle Accelerates Despite S&P 500 Drop
"The S&P 500 index is down 9.2% from its recent highs, and the P/E ratio is down 18%. That 9 percentage point difference can be explained by an earnings cycle that is not only holding up but accelerating higher:" Fidelity's...
SPX Futures Rebound, Patience Required for Today’s Trade
$spx futs +35 reversed off the overnight lows. Makes today’s set up different. It means more patience and we’ll see if early strength holds/fades or builds. We will map out some levels And trade the market in front of us....
Bull Market Likely to Endure Beyond Three
After a historic nine month win streak, the S&P 500 has pulled back about 9%. This is fairly normal, but the big question is could the bull market be over? We say no. In fact, 7 of the past 8 bull markets...
Market Bears in Control: S&P Down, VIX Spikes
•The S&P has dropped for 5 straight weeks. •VIX above 30. •Breadth collapsing. •This isn’t a dip. The rules have changed. More here: https://t.co/uh4QHy6u6s https://t.co/AWURzXrR6l
Thursday's S&P
This is no early April Fools' joke, but Thursday is down an annualized 147.6% this year for the S&P 500. Monday is up 108.2% at least, but that isn't making up for Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. https://t.co/mtIAIGB4Q8