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Shockwave of War Is Rippling Through the Global Economy

The first collective economic health check since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran is underway, with purchasing‑manager indexes (PMIs) across the U.S., euro zone and other major economies expected to fall. Rising energy prices from disrupted shipping and production are pushing inflation higher, prompting a wave of central‑bank reactions—from the UK shelving rate cuts to the ECB adopting a tightening bias and Australia delivering another hike. The upcoming release of the OECD’s combined war‑era outlook and Germany’s Ifo gauge will provide early signals of the broader macro impact. Investors are bracing for tighter monetary conditions and elevated commodity volatility.