Nickel Nationalism Holds Back Indonesia’s Clean Tech Ambitions – by Riandy Laksono (East Asia Forum – March 5, 2026)
Indonesia’s 2020 ban on raw‑nickel exports sparked a surge in domestic smelting and processing, positioning the country as a textbook case of resource‑based industrialisation. Yet its clean‑technology ambitions remain modest: EV exports totaled only US$12 million in 2024, dwarfed by Thailand’s US$363 million and Vietnam’s US$192 million. Battery shipments grew from US$9 million in 2021 to nearly US$600 million in 2024, still trailing Malaysia’s US$1 billion and Singapore’s US$721 million. Analysts argue that a nationalist, resource‑driven approach is throttling Indonesia’s integration into the global EV supply chain.
Interview with Dunagun Kaiser
Alasdair Macleod warns that an escalating conflict with Iran could ignite a global financial crisis, driving energy prices higher and pushing bond yields sharply upward. He argues that U.S. equities are perched in a dangerous bubble vulnerable to rapid correction....
Daily Mineral Prices – 5 March 2026
The Daily Mineral Prices report for March 5 2026 highlights notable movements across several key commodities. Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices range from $12,000 to $27,000 per tonne, reflecting heightened volatility linked to electric‑vehicle battery demand. Spodumene concentrate surged to $2,190‑$2,260 per...
Mid-Week Macro (3/4/2026)
Gold and silver rallied sharply before a 7.7% correction, while the HUI miner index fell from a record 978 to 902. The S&P 500 stayed within a hundred points of its all‑time high, showing little reaction to the Middle East conflict....
Iran War Leads To Commodity Force Majeures
Gold and silver prices rebounded on Wednesday as the market digested escalating tensions in Iran. Gold futures rose $28 to $5,152 per ounce while silver futures gained 29 cents to $83.77. The conflict has revived fears of commodity force‑majeure events,...
Ethanol Production Profits in 2025
U.S. ethanol producers posted a sixth consecutive year of profitability in 2025, with a representative Iowa dry‑mill plant earning an average of $0.21 per gallon. Net nominal profit reached $23.2 million, well above the long‑run average. The rise was driven by...
Back to Normal? For How Long?
The latest Energy Information Administration data show U.S. crude inventories increasing by 3.2 million barrels in March, while exports rose to 5.1 million barrels, approaching record levels. Imports declined by 1.8 million barrels, indicating stronger domestic demand. Refinery utilization climbed...
North American Oil Data Deck (March 2026)
The March 2026 edition of the North American Oil Data Deck, a subscription‑only, 47‑page visual report, shows petroleum liquids output falling 353 kbpd month‑over‑month to 31,075 kbpd, the lowest level since August. U.S. crude production slipped for a second straight month, while Canada...
Good News, Bad News, Stupid News
Barclays released a research paper flagging the risk of stranded transition assets, suggesting that wind and solar projects could lose value despite soaring oil and gas prices. The paper arrives amid heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which has...
Russian Oil & Gas Monthly - February, 2026
The February 2026 edition of Russian Oil & Gas Monthly highlights a sudden escalation in Middle‑East tensions, specifically the outbreak of hostilities involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. The conflict, which unfolded at the end of February, disrupted global...
The Real Commodity Story
Under the Bretton Woods gold standard, oil was effectively pegged at about $2.60 per barrel, delivering remarkable price stability from 1950 until the system’s collapse. When the United States abandoned the gold‑linked dollar in the early 1970s, oil prices became...
Projected Prices and Volatility Factors for 2026
The Risk Management Agency released 2026 projected prices and volatility factors for corn and soybeans after February’s price‑discovery period. Corn’s projected price fell to $4.62 per bushel, $0.08 below 2025, while soybean’s rose to $11.09, $0.55 higher than last year....
Critical Minerals in Focus as Major Toronto Mining Conference Underway – by Ian Bickis(CTV News Northern Ontario – March 2,...
The Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto, drawing over 27,000 attendees, has placed critical minerals at the forefront of its agenda. Industry leaders warned that geopolitical fragmentation is heightening supply‑chain vulnerability for metals such as copper,...
Diesel Prices Rise Sharply, While Gas Increases Remain Modest Across the U.S.
U.S. diesel prices jumped 10 cents to $3.809 per gallon for the week ending Feb. 23, with the Midwest posting the steepest regional rise of 13 cents. The West Coast continues to lead in absolute cost, averaging $4.465. By contrast, gasoline...
Jack Lifton Interviews James Deckelman on Deep Sea Minerals and the Strategic Push Into Seabed Critical Minerals
Jack Lifton interviewed Deep Sea Minerals CEO James Deckelman about the company’s push into polymetallic seabed nodules as a new source of critical minerals. Deckelman highlighted a projected doubling of demand by 2040, a widening supply gap, and soaring copper...
Brownfield Exploration Gives Copper Supply Breathing Time
The rate of discovering new copper deposits has fallen by half over the past decade, driven by a roughly 60% drop in grassroots exploration funding. In contrast, brownfield and mine‑site exploration has supplied four times more copper than greenfield discoveries,...
Gold Daily Call for March 3rd, 2026
Midas Touch Consulting issued its Gold Daily Call for March 3, 2026, projecting that spot gold will initially trade sideways before turning lower. The technical chart highlights a near‑term support zone around $2,050 per ounce and resistance near $2,150. The note cites...
Sugar’s Bounce Has a Problem: The Surplus Story Has Not Moved
White sugar prices barely moved in May 2026, closing at $407.7/tonne, as futures steadied above $400 after a five‑year low. Despite the tactical bounce, surplus projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27 dominate market sentiment, limiting upside. Brazil’s modest output dip and...
Qatar’s LNG Crisis: The Massive Geopolitical Risk Premium—And How You Can Profit From It
Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, faces a supply crunch as regional geopolitical tensions and export‑capacity constraints tighten the market. The disruption has injected a hefty risk premium into spot and forward LNG prices, pushing contracts up 15‑20% year‑over‑year. Buyers...
Gold Soars Again Following Latest War, While Silver Pulls Back
Gold futures surged roughly $100 on Monday, briefly topping $5,400 as investors fled to the traditional safe‑haven amid a new Middle East conflict. In contrast, silver futures slipped $3.62, ending near $89.80 after a volatile swing between $86.73 and $97.30....
Reactions to the US-Israel Attack on Iran; Prepping for the Two Sessions; Science and Technology Insurance
The United States and Israel launched a strike against Iran, dominating global headlines as China prepares for its annual Two Sessions. Beijing’s response has been limited to diplomatic condemnations, mirroring its usual stance in such crises. Iranian crude accounts for...
New Commodity Program Base Acres
The USDA’s Farm Service Agency will automatically add up to 30 million new commodity base acres for the 2026 crop year, making them eligible for ARC and PLC payments. Farms qualify if they planted or were prevented from planting a covered...
The Hormuz Standoff: Global Energy Flow Severs After 'Epic Fury' Strikes
The Strait of Hormuz, a 21‑mile narrow waterway, was shut after a severe incident dubbed “Epic Fury.” The closure halted the transit of roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, about one‑fifth of global consumption. Heightened tensions between Iran and...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat opened the month with firm trade but moved to mixed pricing as the night session progressed. Market focus shifted to geopolitics after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, prompting risk‑led buying and sharp...
Commodity Market Movers Report - Portfolio Update 01.03.2026
The Commodity Market Movers Report released on March 2, 2026 details a new set of long positions across key commodities. The team added half‑position longs in gold, silver and platinum, each capped at 45 basis‑points of risk, and opened a long position in...
Iran Conflict Creates Opportunity and Risk for Australian Grain
Escalating conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States has forced the Strait of Hormuz shut, pushing crude oil prices up 8‑10% and reverberating through agricultural markets. Higher energy costs raise nitrogen fertilizer prices and boost biofuel demand, tightening grain...
Iran Conflict Triggers Tangible Oil & Gas Supply Losses – Production Down, Exports Stranded (Short Video)
The outbreak of armed conflict in Iran has immediately curtailed the country’s oil and gas output, with crude production dropping roughly 15% and gas processing operating at about half capacity. Export pipelines and terminal facilities have been forced to suspend...
The Minerals of War: Criticality in an Age of AI and Artillery
The article expands the "mineral imperative" concept, arguing that global demand for metals and critical minerals must roughly double by 2050 to sustain development, decarbonisation, digitalisation and now defence. While population growth, urbanisation, electrification and AI have already driven material...
Khamenei Eliminated — Hormuz Strait Semi-Shut — All Eyes on OPEC+ V8 Decision This Sunday
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been eliminated, sparking a regional power vacuum and heightened political uncertainty. The Strait of Hormuz is operating at reduced capacity, causing semi‑shutdown conditions that disrupt global oil shipments. Market participants are closely watching...
Attack on Iran and Iran's Retaliation (Update 2)
Iran has evacuated all large oil tankers from the Persian Gulf, a maneuver that lifted its crude exports to the strongest levels seen since 2017. The clearance follows a recent attack on Iranian interests, which Tehran frames as a catalyst...
Gold to Surge After U.S. Strike on Iran
A U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran broke over the weekend, prompting immediate reactions in precious‑metal markets. Because traditional markets are closed, the first price signal came from crypto‑linked gold tokens, with Tether Gold jumping 1.57% to about $5,341 per...
Friday Footnotes: Soybean Balance Sheet Blind Spots
The article challenges the conventional view that soybean price direction is driven solely by balance‑sheet metrics such as ending stocks. While 2024 forecasts show abundant production and high inventories, cash prices remain firm, suggesting that supply‑side fundamentals are more nuanced....
Oil Context Weekly (W9)
Oil prices stayed flat this week, with Brent hovering between $69‑73 and closing just above $72.5 per barrel. Prompt‑month spreads and Brent Dated‑Forward‑Line moved into contango, indicating freight‑rate pressure on the market structure. U.S. crude inventories rebounded while Europe and...
The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff
Brent crude has nudged into the low $70s as U.S.-Iran tensions rise, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that could be disrupted by conflict....
The U.S. Farm Machinery & Equipment Market: Sales, Inventories, and Tariff Headwinds
The U.S. farm machinery market entered a deep downturn in 2025, with tractor sales falling 9.9% to 195,857 units and combine sales plunging 35.6% to 3,579 units. Manufacturer inventories shrank 20.8% to $5.72 billion, while dealer surveys showed over two‑thirds reporting...
Making Room for Venezuela
Venezuelan heavy crude is reentering the unsanctioned global market for the first time in seven years after the United States assumed control of PDVSA. The bulk of the renewed shipments are expected to flow to the U.S. Gulf Coast, with...
Market Price Cap to Increase to $23,200/MWh From 1st July 2026
The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) announced that the National Electricity Market (NEM) Market Price Cap (MPC) will increase to $23,200 per megawatt‑hour (MWh) for the 2026‑27 financial year, effective 1 July 2026. This follows a staged rise from $17,500/MWh in FY 2024‑25...
CME Goes Down Again, While Tariff Lawsuits Pile Onto Market Volatility
Gold and silver futures edged lower on Thursday, with gold slipping $10 to $5,217 per ounce and silver dropping $2.13 to $88.86. The market is nearing the March COMEX delivery cycle, but most contracts have been rolled over, easing immediate...
It May Be a Long Wait for the Next Big Rally in Nickel Prices – by Brian Donovan (Globe and...
Nickel prices began climbing in mid‑December 2025 as Indonesia signaled tighter supply, nudging the benchmark above US$17,000 per tonne. The market’s earlier volatility – a US$100,000‑per‑tonne spike in March 2022 that forced an LME trading halt – contrasts with the...
Re: Dear Kwame: Cocoa Trade Letters #1
The article uses Salomey’s experience in Ghana to illustrate a systemic cash‑flow squeeze at the farmgate of the cocoa trade. Farmers deliver beans, yet payments are delayed because the state‑run marketing board routes sales through a long, opaque export chain....
Weekly Notes (2/25/2026)
Avino Silver released its 2026 guidance, targeting 2.5 million ounces at a $26 per ounce all‑in sustaining cost (AISC), a figure that falls short of analyst expectations but signals continued organic production growth. Discovery Silver disclosed a robust $410 million cash balance,...
The New 1 Oz Gold Futures Are Catching On
CME Group introduced a 1‑ounce gold futures contract in January 2025, expanding its COMEX product suite. Daily trading volume has risen steadily, with a pronounced uptick since September, indicating growing market acceptance. The contract’s performance contrasts with many new derivatives...
Silver Breaks Back Over $90, AS Metal Continues To Leave The Comex
Silver futures surged past $90 per ounce, marking a significant rebound after recent sell‑offs. Gold futures also climbed, adding $47 to reach $5,224 per ounce. The rally suggests a new potential trading range for silver between $60 and $120, moving...
Monster 16 Mb Build Rocks EIA Data – But Market Shrugs It Off Amid Iran War Drums & Near Record...
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released data showing a massive 16 million‑barrel‑per‑day increase in crude output, the largest build in years. Despite the headline‑grabbing surge, equity and commodity markets barely moved, as traders remain fixated on escalating Iran‑Israel tensions. Simultaneously, the...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures opened narrowly mixed as traders focused on month‑end positioning, with limited fresh news and low volume. In South America, Brazil soybean quality is slipping due to excess moisture, raising concerns for both soy and upcoming corn crops. Meanwhile, wildfires...
Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of No Half-RIN and Higher RVOs on Projected Biomass-Based Diesel Production and Feedstock Use...
The EPA is expected to drop the controversial half‑RIN rule and raise biomass‑based diesel renewable volume obligations (RVOs) to 5.25 billion gallons in 2026 and 5.61 billion gallons in 2027, roughly a 20% increase over the June proposal. Using an average equivalence...
Global Gas Prices Diverge as Asian LNG Strengthens While European and US Benchmarks Ease
Last week global gas markets split, with Asian spot LNG rallying to the low‑$11/MMBtu range while European TTF and US Henry Hub prices eased. In Northeast Asia, the JKM benchmark rebounded after a brief dip, driven by renewed buying from...
Japan LNG Resales Hit Record as Companies Expand Overseas Trading
Japan’s LNG resales hit a record in fiscal 2024, surpassing the volume imported from any single supplier. Declining domestic consumption, driven by nuclear restarts, efficiency gains and renewable growth, has pushed utilities and trading houses to redirect surplus cargoes to...
A Cartload of Fertiliser
European carbon prices have slumped from over €92 to about €72 per tonne, eroding the financial incentive for low‑carbon fertilizer production. The author highlights a stark price contrast by purchasing five kilograms of Russian NPK fertilizer for €6.60, underscoring how...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 25 February 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) released its gold buying rates for 25 February 2026, listing prices from $149.39 to $157.69 per gram (approximately $4,646.55‑$4,904.71 per ounce) across purity tiers. The highest cash price applies to fire‑assay gold above 100 g with no sample deduction,...