The Cocoa Crash: Is the Bottom Finally In?
The episode dissects the recent turbulence in the cocoa market, highlighting a modest 0.77% price bounce despite a projected 287,000 MT surplus and a 22% sales drop from major players. It explores the concept of "supply ghosts"—beans stranded at Ivorian ports—and the demand slump in Europe, which has hit a 12‑year low. Analysts weigh a technical support zone around $4,200 against a critical $4,050 break point that could trigger a slide to $3,600, while also examining weather risks, the Nigeria export decline, and disease pressures on farms.
A Precious Metals & Miners Update
The episode reviews the recent market turbulence, highlighting how precious metals and mining stocks held up better than tech and crypto sectors during Thursday's massive sell‑off. A surprisingly mild U.S. CPI report on Friday helped the metals complex rebound, erasing...
Friday Footnotes: What Are The Cash Markets Trying To Say
In this episode, host examines the disconnect between grain futures narratives of abundant supply and weak demand and the reality observed in cash markets, emphasizing that U.S. farmers are still selling despite thin margins. The discussion highlights how rising cash...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the day's agricultural market activity, noting a shift toward consolidation and profit‑taking ahead of the President’s Day holiday, which typically boosts contract positioning. It highlights mixed South American weather impacts, with particular focus on Argentina’s continued crop...
Prospects for Swine Feed Costs in 2026
Indiana corn prices averaged $4.45 per bushel in 2025 and futures suggest 2026 prices will cluster between $4.11 and $4.73 per bushel. Based on these projections, feed‑cost indices for farrow‑to‑finish and swine‑finishing operations are expected to dip slightly below 2025...
Gold & Silver Rebound, And A Look Inside The Indian Silver Market
The episode reviews the recent rebound in gold and silver prices, with gold back above $5,000 per ounce and silver futures climbing to $77.89. It delves into the Indian silver market, highlighting rapid price spikes, profit‑taking, and a sharp correction...
Reuters Reports on Recent China, India Coal Projections
The episode reviews recent Reuters reports on coal outlooks for China and India, highlighting projections from the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association and a NITI Aayog study. In China, output is expected to edge up modestly in 2026 while...
Lingering Storm Impact Still Visible in Latest US Weekly Oil Figures
The episode examines the latest U.S. weekly oil inventory data, highlighting how the lingering effects of a recent storm continue to distort supply figures. Analysts discuss the discrepancy between reported crude builds and actual market conditions, noting that refinery outages...
HCC Q4 2025 Earnings Outlook
The episode examines Warrior Coal Company's Q4 2025 earnings outlook, emphasizing the stable performance of its legacy mines and the growing influence of the Blue Creek operation. It highlights the uncertainty around Blue Creek's steady‑state production as it gains market...
CommodityChat: February WASDE Boosts Corn Export Outlook
The USDA’s February 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report introduced modest revisions to U.S. and global grain balances, notably a slight increase in projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/26. The higher stocks lift the corn export...
Chinese Traders Amplified Gold Volatility
The episode examines how Chinese traders, long recognized for aggressive speculation, sparked a dramatic swing in gold prices—from a surge to $5,600 in late January to a plunge to $4,423 within days. The host recounts a December report predicting this...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the afternoon market dynamics for corn, soybeans, wheat, and livestock futures, noting a shift from steady to lower overnight prices before a positive day‑trade bounce driven by soy meal and oil strength and weather concerns in South...
Thermal (and Industrial) Coal Update - 10 Feb
In this episode, the host reviews recent price movements in South African thermal and industrial coal, highlighting a notable price rally driven by strong demand from Indian sponge‑iron and cement producers. The discussion references insights from the McCloskey OPIS coal...
U.S. Secretary Of State: Brazil & China To 'Trade In Own Currencies & Get Around The Dollar'
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted Brazil's new trade agreement with China that will use their own currencies instead of the U.S. dollar, signaling a shift toward a secondary, dollar‑independent global economy. He warned that as more nations transact...
![[CW6] The Washington Minerals Summit (and Its Derivatives), Oak Ridge’s Renaissance, and the Uranium Policy Wave](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lzc6!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01a1bf0f-a07f-4ec1-ad53-1b0487956974_850x850.png)
[CW6] The Washington Minerals Summit (and Its Derivatives), Oak Ridge’s Renaissance, and the Uranium Policy Wave
The episode reviews a wave of concrete investments and policy moves across critical minerals, highlighting the Washington ministerial where the US stepped back from price‑floor schemes while Australia pressed ahead with its Strategic Reserve, and Brazil’s Serra Verde secured a...
US Grain Storage Capacity Growth Has Stopped
US grain storage capacity expanded steadily from 2000 to 2019, adding roughly 350 million bushels per year, but growth has essentially stopped after 2020. Meanwhile, crop production kept rising, pushing the surplus capacity margin down to just 5 % in 2025. On‑farm...
North American Oil Data Deck (February 2026)
The February 2026 North American Oil Data Deck reveals that petroleum liquids output hit a record 31.4 million barrels per day, driven by a surge in Canadian production that more than compensated for flat U.S. and Mexican output. Meanwhile, continental...
Free Webinar: Venezuela’s Oil Industry
In this free webinar, host Doug Garber brings together oil market veteran Paul Sankey and AlphaSense researcher Xavier Smith to dissect the current state of Venezuela’s oil sector. They explore the country’s production potential, the political and operational barriers that...
Interview with Triangle Investor
In this episode, economist Alasdair Macleod outlines a 2026 outlook where a tightening silver market, driven by massive physical shortages and surging demand from China and India, is creating a sharp premium between Shanghai and Western markets. He warns that...
Germany Puts Wind, Solar on the Hook for Grid Connections
The episode examines a draft German law that would require wind and solar developers to cover the costs of connecting their projects to the electricity grid, a move prompted by a surge of connection requests, especially from large‑scale battery storage...
Gold Daily Call for February 9th, 2026
In this episode Florian Grummes reviews gold’s recent price action, noting that the metal has retaken the USD 5,000 level and established a bullish higher low at USD 4,655 after a pull‑back. He explains that the market is now in a sideways...
I Talk Silver with Danny of CapitalCosm
In this episode Alasdair Macleod talks with Danny from CapitalCosm about the current state and outlook for silver as an investment. They explore silver's price dynamics, its relationship to gold, and the macroeconomic factors—like inflation, monetary policy, and industrial demand—shaping...
Silver Post-Smash Outlook
Alasdair Macleod analyzes the aftermath of a recent sharp drop in silver derivatives, noting that hedge fund long positions are near a 20‑year low while physical liquidity in COMEX and London vaults is extremely thin. He warns that a massive...
Oil Context Weekly (W6)
In this week’s Oil Context Weekly, the host reviews flat crude prices slipping below $68 a barrel after geopolitical chatter between the U.S. and Iran, while noting a modestly backwardated term structure with a "smiley‑faced" futures curve extending to 2027....
Friday Footnotes: What's Happening In China
In this episode, the host examines the current state of China's grain market, focusing on its ability to meet President Trump's promised soybean purchases of 8 million metric tons (294 million bushels) and the anticipated 25 million metric tons of new crop. The...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the mixed early‑trade futures landscape, noting grain prices slipping while soybeans rose on expectations of sustained demand despite uncertain Chinese imports. It highlights Brazil's soybean dynamics—rising harvests but limited exports due to domestic crusher buying and a...
Gold Daily Call for February 6th, 2026
The Gold Daily Call episode for February 6th, 2026 breaks down the latest movements in the gold market, focusing on price trends, macroeconomic drivers, and upcoming central bank policy decisions. Host analysis highlights the impact of recent inflation data, US...
US Weekly Oil Data
The episode breaks down the latest U.S. weekly oil production and inventory figures, highlighting recent shifts in crude output, refinery utilization, and stockpile levels. It explains how these data points are influencing price movements and market sentiment, especially in the...
Hormuz on the Brink?
U.S. forces escalated the standoff with Iran after an F‑35 shot down an Iranian drone that approached a carrier in the Arabian Sea. Both sides have scheduled high‑level talks in Istanbul, raising hopes for a diplomatic de‑escalation. The dispute centers...
Watch Out for Japan’s Election on Sunday
The episode analyzes the recent collapse in gold and silver prices, attributing it to extremely low speculative open interest on COMEX and a lack of buyers, which created a price vacuum. It notes that the market has now stabilized as...
Interview with Jasmine of Money Magpie
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod discusses the potential collapse of the fiat currency system, drawing parallels to the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation and the subsequent surge in gold prices. He argues that fiat money depends on confidence and credit, but governments...
Interview with Jesse Day of Commodity Culture
In this episode, host Alasdair Macleod and guest Jesse Day of Commodity Culture explore the theory that China is amassing silver to eventually back the yuan with a silver standard, a move that could accelerate the dollar’s decline. They discuss...
No Glut in Sight: Why Oil Bears Remain Mistaken—Despite OPEC+ V8 Easing the Taps in April
The episode explains that recent oil price gains are driven primarily by sharp production cuts in the United States and Mexico caused by an unusually harsh winter, rather than by OPEC+ policy changes. Geopolitical tension, including rumors of a possible...
Inventories Before and During the Storm: A Reliable Predictor of… Nothing
The episode examines U.S. oil inventory data, highlighting that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has accumulated more barrels since early 2025 than the increase in domestic crude production. This discrepancy undermines claims of a true global oil surplus, as much...
Iraq’s January Oil Exports Surge: A Short Explanation.
The episode examines recent Kpler data showing Iraq’s seaborne crude oil exports jumping to an average of 3.457 million barrels per day in January, a rise of roughly 208 kb/d from December. It notes that pipeline shipments to Turkey have stayed steady...
Gasoline Inventories Rise to Highest Level Since 2020
The episode examines the recent surge in U.S. gasoline inventories, which have climbed to their highest level since 2020, and explores the factors driving this buildup, including weaker demand, refinery outages, and seasonal storage patterns. Analysts discuss how the inventory...
Assisted Thinking
The episode “Assisted Thinking” dissects the stark contrast between China’s massive reliance on coal—accounting for 58% of its primary energy in 2024—and the Western media narrative that paints Beijing as a climate leader. By examining data from the Statistical Review...
Annual Review of EU’s Gas Market in 2025 and the Outlook for 2026
The episode reviews the EU gas market in 2025, noting a modest 1.2% demand rebound after two years of decline and a sharp increase in LNG imports that offset a 15 bcm loss of Russian pipeline gas following the end of...
Are the Attacks on Kazakhstan’s Petroleum Sector Potentially Linked to Retaliation Against Trump’s Venezuela Strategy?
In this episode, A.F. Alhajji examines a sudden decline in OPEC+ oil output, focusing on recent attacks on Kazakhstan’s petroleum infrastructure and their possible connection to U.S. policy toward Venezuela under former President Trump. He argues that the disruptions may...
Weekly Indicators for January 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha’s weekly indicators for Jan 12‑16 highlight a normalizing yield curve and mortgage rates at three‑year lows, which are reviving the housing market. At the same time, gasoline prices have slipped to their lowest level in almost five years, creating...
Counterparty Risk in Silver Exposed
The episode examines the recent price dynamics of precious metals, noting gold's steady rise to $4,606 and silver's rapid surge to $90.75, driven by heightened open interest on the COMEX. It highlights the emerging counterparty risk in the silver market,...
The Gasoline Build Paradox: Weather and Shale Vs. Economic Growth?
The episode explores the paradox of rising gasoline consumption despite advances in shale production and the influence of weather patterns on fuel demand. It examines how economic growth, seasonal temperature shifts, and the resilience of the oil market interact to...
Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran: Key Wildcards Driving Oil Price Volatility
The episode examines three emerging wildcards that could destabilize oil markets: a sharp decline in Kazakhstan’s crude exports due to Ukrainian drone attacks and weather‑related production cuts, political and operational uncertainties in Venezuela, and renewed sanctions and geopolitical tension surrounding...
Annual Review of the Global LNG Market in 2025 and Outlook for 2026
The 2025 global LNG market was driven by strong European demand as the region reduced reliance on Russian pipeline gas and rapid import growth in the MENA region, especially Egypt, while Asian demand, notably China, softened due to higher domestic...