Marginal Well Models and Russia's Weak Wellhead Economics
Russian oil drilling contracted 3.4% in 2025, marking the first decline since 2021, with a sharp 10% drop in the second half of the year. The slowdown is attributed to a weaker Urals crude price and a stronger ruble, which together eroded the economics of new wells. To quantify this effect, the author revived a proprietary marginal well model that translates macro variables into a single profitability metric. The analysis suggests that deteriorating wellhead economics are now a primary driver of reduced upstream investment in Russia.
China Boosts Russian Oil Purchases – Oligopsony Looms
China has stepped in to purchase Russian crude that India declined, pushing Russian oil exports to their highest levels in two years. The shift has concentrated buying power among a few Asian importers, driving the Urals‑grade discount to a multi‑year...
UK Cuts Electricity Bills by Raising Taxes
Britain’s energy regulator announced that electricity bills will hit their lowest level in almost two years starting in April. The decline stems from a policy shift that moves a portion of renewable‑energy support costs from consumer bills onto general taxation....
Detour Mine Expansion to Accelerate as Agnico Eagle Boosts Spending – by Staff (Northern Ontario Business – February 24, 2026)
Canada’s largest gold producer Agnico Eagle announced an accelerated expansion of its Detour Lake mine and ongoing construction of the Upper Beaver project, aiming to boost output by up to 30% and exceed 4 million ounces by the early 2030s. The...
Why Copper May Give Silver a Major Boost
The author’s long‑standing bullish thesis on copper is now materialising, with the base metal entering a sustained up‑trend that also benefits silver. Recent market data shows copper prices accelerating as renewable‑energy projects, electric‑vehicle production, and infrastructure spending drive demand. At...
U.S. and Brazil Soybean Competitiveness: Farm-Level Costs and Returns
A recent Purdue Ag Economy Barometer survey shows 80% of U.S. soybean growers are concerned about Brazil’s growing export advantage. Farm‑level data from 2020‑2024 reveal Brazilian soybean operations in Mato Grosso have lower total costs per ton than Iowa farms, despite...
The Coffee Reset: From Scarcity to Comfort
The episode breaks down the recent slide in ICE Coffee C futures, highlighting how a projected record Brazilian harvest of 66.2 million bags is driving bearish sentiment despite near‑term export tightness. Vietnam’s robusta surge and rebuilding inventories in both arabica...
Gold Daily Call for February 23rd, 2026
In the February 23, 2026 Gold Daily Call, Florian Grummes analyzes the current gold market, noting a sideways consolidation phase with higher lows and higher highs suggesting a potential breakout toward the $5,350 level. He highlights the bullish momentum in...
Commodity Market Movers Report - Portfolio Update 22.02.2026
In this episode the hosts review their recent commodity trades, highlighting a 50% profit take on a short cocoa position after hitting the first target and the closure of a long heating oil trade following two strong rally days driven...
New FCAS Resources Dominate Enabled Levels in 2025
The Generator Statistical Digest 2025 (GSD2025) shows that new FCAS resources now dominate all ancillary service categories, with grid‑scale batteries providing the bulk of enabled capacity. Ancillary‑service units classified as "Electricity" also hold a sizable share, especially in raise regulation...
Copper Rebound Anchors CAFCA’s Q1 Performance as Export Demand Surges
CAFCA Limited posted a 3% year‑on‑year increase in total sales volumes for Q1 2025, propelled by a 21% surge in copper product volumes. Export shipments to regional markets leapt 77% after the company overhauled its distribution model and eliminated consignment...
Commodities, Rates, and the Repricing of Scarcity
In this episode of Lead‑Lag Live, Will Rhind, founder and CEO of GraniteShares, explains why platinum is experiencing a resurgence due to a structural supply deficit and the waning of peak‑ESG assumptions, while gold continues to hit new highs but...
Interview with Arigato Investor ありがとう投資家 04.02.2026
In this episode, The Macro Butler interviews the Arigato Investors to explore why gold remains a safe‑haven asset during market turbulence and how its appeal is evolving. They discuss the shifting financial centre of gravity toward Asia, highlighting Hong Kong and...
Interview with Andrew Maguire of Kinesis
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod and Andrew Maguire of Kinesis dissect the ongoing silver squeeze, highlighting how massive short positions in China and robust physical demand are forcing paper markets to the brink. They explain the eastward shift of price...
Weekly Recap (2/20/2026)
The episode reviews the week’s market data and focuses on the Supreme Court’s decision that President Trump cannot use the Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, prompting him to invoke Section 122 for a temporary 10% tariff that expires...
Wall Street Bears Turn Tail After Gold Rises to $5,100/Oz, Main Street Bullishness Unchanged as Iran Tensions Mount – by...
Gold prices rebounded from early‑week weakness, reclaiming the $5,000 support level and climbing to $5,100 per ounce by week’s end. The initial dip was tied to reduced Chinese demand during the Lunar New Year, but safe‑haven buying spurred by rising...
Nutrien Sees Potash Demand Growing Again This Year After Record Harvest – by Daniel Johnson (CP24/Canadian Press – February 19,...
Nutrien Ltd. projects potash demand to expand for a fourth straight year, targeting sales of 14.1‑14.8 million tonnes in 2026. Benchmark potash prices are roughly 20% higher than a year earlier, reflecting tighter market fundamentals. CFO Mark Thompson highlighted constrained...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the overnight futures market, noting mixed grain movements and modest profit taking in soybeans. A pivotal moment came when the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, ruled that President Trump’s tariffs were invalid because only Congress...
Historical Cropping Patterns for Illinois Grain Farms
The Illinois Farm Business Management Association’s data show that from 2015 to 2024 corn acreage declined across all three regions, with northern farms dropping from 61.6% to 56.4% of tillable land. Central Illinois farms hovered near a 50/50 corn‑soybean split,...
Global Oil Data Deck (February 2026)
The February 2026 Global Oil Data Deck reveals that the worldwide liquids market, still heavily oversupplied, finally tightened in December—the first such move in six months—signaling the end of the most oversupplied year since 2020. Production fell in December mainly...
Tungsten Breaks Into CMI Top 5 Consideration as Supply Risks Reshape the Critical Minerals Watchlist
The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) has elevated tungsten to a top‑5 candidate on its 2025 watchlist, citing China’s 80%‑plus production share and the lack of domestic U.S. sources. In the interview, Director Alastair Neill also highlighted copper, gallium, cobalt, uranium and...
Copper: Imminent Supercycle or Mostly Hype?
In this episode, Doomberg examines the recent surge of interest in copper, dissecting whether the metal is on the brink of a genuine supercycle driven by supply constraints and booming demand, or if the hype is largely speculative. He outlines...
A Defensive Rally.
The episode examines the surprising year‑to‑date rally in oil and gas equities, highlighting that despite a "risk‑off" environment, energy stocks are outpacing all S&P sectors. The host attributes this to improving momentum, stronger global manufacturing PMIs, a weaker U.S. dollar,...
Gold and Silver Recovering
The episode reviews a recent rally in gold and silver prices, noting modest gains in Europe and unusually low trading volumes on the U.S. Comex market due to a holiday. It highlights the scant speculative interest and low open interest...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 20 February 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery published its February 20 2026 gold buying rates for Zimbabwe, listing prices per gram and per troy ounce across several purity categories. The fire‑assay cash price for gold above 100 g is $152.66 per gram ($4,748.26 per ounce), while the...
Interview with BFM 89.9 Malaysia 20.02.2026
In this emergency interview on BFM 89.9 Malaysia, The Macro Butler warned that a combination of rising oil prices and increasing unemployment could derail the Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2026, bolster the US dollar, and pressure retail stocks...
Storm-Powered Mega Draw: U.S. Crude Inventories Plunge 9 Million Barrels – Biggest in 5 Months!
The episode breaks down the sudden 9‑million‑barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories—the steepest decline in five months—driven by a powerful storm that disrupted refinery operations and boosted demand for heating fuel. Analysts explain how the draw reshapes the supply‑demand balance,...
Namibia’s Strategic Ascent in the Global Uranium Supply Chain
The episode outlines Namibia’s rise to become the world’s third‑largest uranium producer, delivering 7,333 tonnes in 2024 and targeting 8,000‑9,000 tonnes in 2025. It highlights the country’s three flagship mines—Husab, Rössing, and the revived Langer Heinrich—along with their robust infrastructure,...
Trader PhD Survey Predicts More Soybean Acres, Strong Corn Plantings
Trader PhD’s February 2026 acreage survey shows U.S. corn plantings slipping 1.4% to 97.3 million acres, while soybean acres climb 3.5% to 84.2 million. Wheat acreage is projected at a record‑low 42.2 million acres, a 7.3% decline. Sixty‑two percent of growers cite normal crop...
Bond Break Out – Gold Bullish Pattern – Silver Retracement – Uranium Hits Setup Zone
Technical analysts note a bond breakout as yields pierce a key resistance, suggesting upward momentum in fixed‑income markets. Meanwhile, gold charts display a bullish continuation pattern, reinforcing optimism for further price gains. Silver is experiencing a short‑term retracement, testing a...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 19 February 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) released its official gold buying rates for Zimbabwe on 19 February 2026, quoting prices per gram and per troy ounce. The top tier – Fire Assay cash for gold above 100 g – is $152.01 per gram ($4,728.04 per...
Who Killed FCAS?
FCAS (Frequency Control Ancillary Services) prices in Australia’s NEM have plummeted since late 2023, falling to well below $2/MW h after a multi‑year decline. The collapse coincides with a rapid expansion of registered FCAS capacity, driven largely by utility‑scale batteries, demand‑response...
Proof That Precious Metals Are Just Getting Started
The episode argues that the recent pullback in precious metals is a short‑term correction within a much larger, still‑early secular bull market. The host cites a new report showing that affluent American investors have only modestly participated so far, suggesting...
Gold & Silver Rebound After Latest Selloff, While Warsh's 'Treasury Accord' Looms...
Gold and silver prices bounced back after a recent sell‑off, with gold futures climbing $121 to $5,026 and silver futures up $4.50 to $78.04, while the Shanghai silver market remains closed for a holiday. The episode notes regional price differences,...
Antimony Price Spike Puts Critical Mineral in Spotlight as Jim Atkinson Advances Antimony Resources’ Bald Hill Project
Antimony Resources Corp. is accelerating development of its Bald Hill project after a serendipitous discovery of the Marcus Zone, a new stibnite‑rich mineralized area. The metal’s price has rocketed from roughly $12,000 to $60,000 per metric ton, driven by defense...
Egypt LNG Supply Shaped by Israel–Egypt Gas Interdependence
Egypt’s LNG export volumes are increasingly tied to domestic power demand and Israeli pipeline imports, according to Cedigaz analysis. Israel’s offshore gas surplus now flows to Egypt, stabilizing its electricity system but leaving LNG output dependent on residual gas. Fluctuations...
Russian Drilling Falls in 2H25 – What Does It Mean?
The episode examines the sharp decline in Russian oil and gas drilling in the second half of 2025, with total meters drilled falling 3.4% year‑over‑year and the share of horizontal wells dropping from 67.8% to 59.3%. It links the slowdown...
Gold Daily Call for February 18th, 2026
In this episode Florian Grummes reviews the gold market’s sideways action around the $100 per ounce level as Asian markets, especially China, celebrate the New Year. He highlights the volatility within the range, noting that while price swings are frequent,...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 18 February 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery published its official gold buying rates for 18 February 2026. Prices are quoted in US dollars per gram and per troy ounce, ranging from $148.79/gram ($4,627.89/oz) for 90%+ purity to $141.70/gram ($4,407.37/oz) for 5‑10 g samples. The fire‑assay cash price...
Sandawana Production to More Than Double as Mutapa Energy Unveils US$250 Million Concentrator, US$36 Million Infrastructure Drive
Mutapa Energy’s Sandawana lithium mine will more than double its concentrate output to 162,000 tonnes in FY2026, a 122% increase over the prior year. The company has secured US$250 million to build a new concentrator plant, with construction slated to start...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the mixed performance of corn, soybeans, and wheat, highlighting soybean support from Argentine crop stress and strong soy oil contracts, while noting Brazil's advancing harvest and modest quality concerns. It discusses the ongoing acreage debate, with USDA...
Gold & Silver Prices Crash Again - But Is Rally Finally Over?
The episode reviews the latest sharp declines in gold and silver futures, noting gold down $170 to $4,876 and silver down $5.71 to $72.26. Despite the sell‑offs, the hosts emphasize that both metals are still up dramatically year‑over‑year—gold nearly $2,000...
Cotton’s Technical Lift Meets Demand Restraint
ICE March 2026 cotton futures rose modestly to 62.11 cents per pound, driven primarily by short covering and technical repositioning rather than fresh demand. Export sales and mill buying remained cautious, indicating muted underlying demand despite a relatively firm US...
Industry Needs $90/Bbl.
The episode explains that the oil industry needs oil prices around $90 per barrel to achieve a 10% return on capital, the threshold where oil stocks typically outperform the S&P 500. It highlights that current reinvestment rates are just above...
Wheat at the Ceiling: Is This Rebound Real?
The episode examines the recent rebound in wheat prices, noting a 3.6% weekly gain that places futures just below the long‑term technical ceiling. While global production remains near record levels—841.8 million tonnes—with strong output from Russia, Argentina, and the EU, U.S....
Quick Take: Thermal Coal Prices Rising
In this brief episode, the host highlights a recent surge in API2 (Northwest Europe) thermal coal futures for March delivery, which have risen roughly $5 per metric tonne over five trading sessions, briefly breaching $108/mt before settling near $107.50/mt. The...
Gold Daily Call for February 16th, 2026
In this episode Florian Grummes provides a technical outlook for gold, highlighting a sideways market with key resistance levels at 5012‑5126 and support zones from 5000 down to 4907. He notes the lack of clear directional bias due to closed...
Commodity Market Movers Report - Portfolio Update 15.02.2026
In this episode, Lukas Kuemmerle reviews his commodity portfolio, highlighting a 50% profit take on a short coffee position after hitting the first target and the initiation of a short trend‑continuation trade in cocoa, capitalizing on a brief consolidation. He...
Silver Paper's Problem
The episode examines the severe liquidity crunch in both physical and paper silver, highlighted by a sharp drop in COMEX open interest and widening spreads that deter speculators. It explains how banks and traders are constrained by the high value...
The True Value of Gold Beyond Price - Podcast
In this episode, The Macro Butler breaks down why gold’s worth extends far beyond its market price, emphasizing its role as a historical store of value, a hedge against systemic risk, and a cultural symbol of wealth. He explains how...