Gold's Surge Signals Return of Safe‑Haven Appeal
Bull Trap or the safe heaven status is back ? Gold has been on the rise for the past few days meanwhile Geopolitical tensions & inflation fears are still on the rise. Let me share my 2 cents on what's happening & what's likely coming next 🧵
U.S. Corn Inspections Beat Forecasts; Soybeans Lag, China Leads Demand
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export inspections topped all trade expectations, but soybeans fell slightly below. 46% of the inspected soybean cargoes were destined for China. https://t.co/qtmgF00LfJ
Gold Falls Despite Inflation; Real Rates Drive Moves
Gold can drop hard while inflation headlines stay hot. That’s not ‘gold is broken’. That’s real rates and margin calls. Correlations don’t die. They just take vacations. https://t.co/LB3g5NQWP9
Corn Leads USDA Export Inspections, Soybeans Follow
USDA inspections for export in the week ending Mar. 26 (mln bu); #corn 70.4, grain sorghum 7.1, #soybeans 21.5, #wheat 13.4 #oatt
Commodities Now Trading Across Daily, Weekly, Monthly Timeframes
Pick your timeframe Copper, natural gas, and oil (Brent / WTI) markets are now trading across daily, weekly, and monthly Commodities have entered the chat ↓ https://t.co/dxPGVrURQL
Iran War Creates Unprecedented Oil Shortage, No Spare Capacity
The Iran war has disrupted a greater share of oil supplies than any previous shock. And this time, there is virtually no spare capacity available to make up the gap. @wsj
US Diesel Prices Soar Above $190 on Tight Margins
Brent Crude: $114/bbl US diesel crack spread (refining margin): $77/bbl US diesel wholesale market price > $190 per barrel
Gold Correction Won't Dent Earnings; War May Spark Rally
New audio podcast with bullion dealer @MoneyMetals... We discuss the potential impacts of the war, the recent correction in gold and why it won’t affect earnings that much, and what could lead the next leg higher in #gold stocks. Begins at the...
Brent May Futures Expire, June Takes Over at $108
A reminder that the Brent May futures contract, currently trading ~$115 a barrel, expires tomorrow. From Wednesday, the front-month futures would be the Brent June contract, currently trading at ~$108 a barrel. Liquidity has already moved from May to...
Brent Bulls Trim Positions Amid Hints of Negotiations
Wartime Brent bulls only slightly deflected by talk about talks Investors trimmed bullish positions in Brent slightly early last week after the U.S. government paused plans to attack Iran’s electricity generation plants and announced it was making progress in negotiations to...
Energy Price Surge Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Yields Climb, Stocks Slip Despite Oil and VIX Peaks
i'm still looking at March 9th, 2026... 🧐 crude oil peaked... volatility $VIX peaked... but 10-year yields $TNX ignored oil/VIX & still rising... and stocks $SPX ignored oil/VIX & still falling... https://t.co/8DK3OPCAJa
Oil Rises While Rate‑Hike
Oil up across the curve the past week and rate hike odds contracting in the back half of that oil rise feels ominous
Lithium Rebound Lifts Aussie Producers, but Fuel Costs Threaten Gains
Observing the rebound in lithium prices and its positive effect on Australian producers. That said, the rising fuel costs could well offset any gains this quarter.
Jet Fuel Surge Threatens Airline Profits, Spurs Fare Hikes
🇺🇸 ✈️ United: Jet fuel prices have more than doubled in three weeks, if continues, annual fuel bill would exceed $11 billion (more than double its best-ever annual profit) New York–London fares up 177% (week-on-week) 📈 🇺🇸✈️ Delta: $400 million hit due...
2026 U.S. Corn Plantings Dip yet Stay Above Average
🇺🇸 2026 U.S. corn plantings are seen sharply lower year-over-year but still well above average. Soy area is seen up 5%. USDA's Tuesday report will shed more light. 💡Fun fact: The corn estimates (avg, hi & lo) are nearly identical to...
Asian LNG Buyers Turn to Coal Amid Shipment Cuts
"With a cutoff in shipments imminent, Asian countries, the biggest importers of liquefied natural gas from the Middle East, are already burning more coal and reducing consumption." https://t.co/U74LIL7DHC "the entire concept of L.N.G. being a reliable fuel is undermined," 😔 https://t.co/mYeNrKdiYC
Renewable Intermittency Solved; Gas Supply Shocks Devastate Markets
Everyone keeps talking about intermittency. Let me show you two kinds. Wind and solar output varies hourly. It follows weather patterns that we can forecast days in advance. It has a well-understood distribution. We have storage, interconnection, demand response, and decades...
LNG Shortage Threatens Coal Decline, Nations Reopen Plants
The LNG supply crunch puts at risk forecasts that coal consumption will begin to fall this decade 🇩🇪 Germany is considering restarting mothballed coal-fired plants 🇯🇵 Japan will expand use of less efficient coal plants 🇰🇷 Korea may exit its own...
Jet Fuel Prices Double, Asian Markets Hit Hard
JET FUEL prices have more than doubled since the onset of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. Jet fuel swaps in Singapore are trading at more than $200 per barrel up from just over $90 before the...
Strait Closure Will Trigger Oil Price Spike, Curb Consumption
“The world still hasn’t grasped the severity of the situation…If the strait stays closed, the world will have to significantly reduce its oil and gas consumption – but not before prices spike to a level that forces consumers and businesses...
Europe Faces Imminent Jet Fuel Shortage, Airlines Warned
Also - a serious jet fuel shortage is less than a week away across multiple different markets, including at some major European airport hubs - who are informing airlines to prepare for a potential ‘no-fuel available here’ scenario
Asia May Shift to Coal, Accelerate Renewables, Cut Gas
“If you’re sitting in Asia, going through this again, it’s possible you change your strategy long term — rely more on coal for longer, build out your renewables faster and reduce your exposure to natural gas.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-29/iran-war-s-gas-supply-shock-pushes-top-consumers-back-to-coal
Historic Oil Supply Shock Marks One Month, Crisis Looms
The biggest oil supply shock in history has reached the one-month mark And the energy industry is warning that the crisis is only beginning 👇⚠️ https://t.co/AZ661hxNtt https://t.co/HF3YvOdLZx
Oil's Calm Surge Ends: Volatility Looms Ahead
why oil price rises have been so orderly so far, and why that is about to change.. https://t.co/TAIdkwIkdQ
War‑Driven Oil Shortage Forces Demand Destruction
COLUMN: Five weeks into the Third Gulf War, the math of oil-barrel counting is intractable: The world is short of the black stuff. Enter demand destruction. @Opinion https://t.co/Y2DPUcHM8s
Al Taweelah Outage Threatens UAE Aluminium, Bauxite, Freight Markets
Al Taweelah smelter damage raises new risks for UAE aluminium supply, bauxite flows, and Gulf freight markets. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/al-taweelah-smelter-damage-raises-new.html
Oil Price Surge Drives Markets to Four‑month Low
JUST IN: Markets dropped to a four-month trough as the oil price surge unnerved traders.
Trump, Iran Tensions Spike Oil Prices
JUST IN: Trump's Strait of Hormuz warning and Iran's counter-threats are making oil prices jumpy.
Goldman Sachs Lifts 2026 Brent Forecast to $85
JUST IN: Goldman Sachs now sees Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel in 2026, an $8 increase to their prior forecast.
WGC Urges Aussies to Buy Gold Amid Rate Hikes
World Gold Council says Australian investors should buy bullion’s price dip despite RBA rate rises https://t.co/xE9qJc1wol
Refiners Shift to Brent as Dubai Benchmark Falters
JUST IN: Some oil refiners turn to Brent Oil as Dubai benchmark becomes increasingly unstable https://t.co/t3Ib44eX0I
Hormuz Closure’s Oil “Air Pocket” Hits Regions Sequentially
I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in...
Asian Demand Drives Brent Above $115 per Barrel
JUST IN: Asian buyers are bidding up Brent Crude Oil, paying steep premiums as supply tightens Pushing global oil prices upwards of $115/ barrel https://t.co/kh3DZ9EpdH
Oil Prices Surge to Target, Maintaining Brent Long Position
Oil going straight up to levels we were looking for - staying Long in Brent $BNO terms https://t.co/MJlPz9oFW6
Middle East Tensions Push Gold to 4537.70 ORB
🌏 Asia ORB Set | GC High: 4537.70 | Low: 4511.80 🎬 Live trade 9am: https://t.co/UFRUqEw6Kf ─────── 🌍 Middle East tensions spike, driving safe-haven bids. ─────── 📊 Gold futures grinding higher, testing 4535.00 resistance. ─────── 🎯 Watch 4537.70 ORB high—break ignites bullish surge.
Speculators' Bullishness Matches 2021‑22 Despite Ample Supply
📈Speculators' grain & oilseed bullishness has reached the levels of late March 2021 & 2022, times when balance sheets certainly looked tighter than today. But are supplies at risk this year? Fewer corn acres? Big bean oil demand? Weather scare? Trade...
Small Brent Move Wipes Out $100 Profit
Just mentioned to my business partner (wife) that Brent opened at $16.25 Realized I’m now dropping the leading $100
US Gas Hits $4.10, Biggest 4‑week Jump in 30 Years
Gas prices in the US rose to $4.10 per gallon last week, their highest level since August 2022. The 33% increase over the last 4 weeks ($3.07/gallon to $4.10/gallon) is the biggest 4-week spike we've seen in the past 30 years....
Fertilizer Prices Surge 52%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. https://t.co/KYmqkbca60
Iran War Triggers Double‑digit Commodity Price Surges
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
Physical Oil Prices Set to Pull Paper Market Up
My latest with @davidlin_TV on physical vs. paper oil markets: "The physical markets are trading well above the paper market prices. Eventually, the paper market is going to be MUGGED BY REALITY, & the price of the paper market will be...
Oil Could Spike to $150, Ignoring Market Risks
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
2025‑26 Marks Oil Peak; Prolonged Disruption Likely Contracts Market
2025–26 likely marks the peak plateau for global oil @acidiclemon2 Everything depends on duration A quick resolution could trigger a price-driven rebound (low probability) Longer disruption==> contraction defines the years ahead (high probability) #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
US Officials Anticipate Oil Soaring to $200 per Barrel
“.. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel.” @business https://t.co/jKbSZuzsl7 https://t.co/RvefSmh0vP
10‑Year Treasury Yield Signals Oil’s Impending Downturn
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
US Gas Prices Stay Low, Softening Energy Shock Impact
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Gold Jumps 10% Post‑Crash: Bottom or Bull Trap?
Gold Price Forecast: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges 10% After Crash—Bottom In or Bull Trap? https://t.co/CwnEhFzNtn $XAUUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/NoYtoXTuYs
Hormuz Shutdown Creates Unprecedented Oil Supply Shock
Lotta people love to play with Hormuz offset balance math—and boy, oh boy, the numbers I've seen bouncing around... But let's keep it dead simple and focus on pure output: There's now ~10 MMbpd of crude oil production shut-ins confirmed across the...
Oil Hits $99 Amid Tensions; Economy’s Resilience Tested
Oil spiked above $99 as Middle East tensions escalate. This week's jobs and confidence data will show if the economy can handle the shock or if cracks are starting to emerge. 🟢 Open https://t.co/muP4Yrt2q1