Turkey Sells Billions in Gold to Prop Lira
Turkey is selling gold to support the lira. Over the past two weeks, the central bank has sold around 58 tons (~$8 billion). At the same time, since 2020, Turkey has been among the top three gold buyers (alongside China and Poland). https://t.co/n7LnhCGWVf
Europe’s Gas Prices Double US Levels Post‑Hormuz
Before the Battle for Hormuz, Europeans were paying about 3x more for nat gas than US consumers. Today, they are paying about 6x. Europe has to drill. Chart below is from my latest piece. https://t.co/pfIpV5UZy3
Rising Oil Prices Hurt Importers, Boost U.S. Exporter
"More expensive oil is bad for Europe, Japan and Korea, all big importers. It is actually a net benefit to the U.S., as an exporter and the world’s biggest producer." — The Wall Street Journal Russia and the Middle East also benefit.
2026 Gold and Crude Face Pump‑Then‑Dump Risk
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
Rising Diesel Prices Signal Delayed Inflation Surge
Diesel: $3.89 → $5.37/gal. Every truck. Every delivery. Every shelf. The inflation pipeline hasn't fully hit yet. Freight costs are the slow burn that shows up 60-90 days later. You haven't felt this yet. You will. $XLE $IYT https://t.co/OaV580UlNv
US Insulated From Global Gas Shocks After LNG Imports Surge
Correct. In the mid-2000s, FERC was full of applications to build LNG import terminals. In that world, global gas shocks like 2022 and today would cause US prices to spike, but today the U.S. is largely insulated.
Lithium Prices Could Double by 2026 Amid China Supply Panic
Interesting take. Always tough to predict #lithium price. I think a doubling from here in 2026 is rich but not impossible. China’s current supply freak-out is real.
Kalshi Predicts WTI Oil Hitting $139 by Year‑end
How high will WTI oil get by the end of the year? @kalshi market says $139 https://t.co/d9FiMu2DQS https://t.co/2ac3ey45Us
Power Costs Set to More Than Double Within Decade
Generac $GNRC investor day had some pretty frightening commentary on power costs and how it will impact consumer/business budgets Power costs are going to double, more than double in the next decade.
Weather Stress Signals Rapid Wheat Repricing Ahead
Wheat isn’t tight yet—but the setup is turning, writes @gaurav_kochar Weather stress & weaker global crops are building risk that can reprice fast. #Wheat #Commodities #FoodSecurity #Markets
Helium Shortage Threatens Chip Production, 40% offlineHelium Shortage Threatens Chip Production, 40% Offline
40% of global helium is offline It's critical for computer chips and there's only a few weeks of inventory https://t.co/NrxRXjRzCl
Australia's LNG Outage Slashes Exports, Leaves Market Bufferless
Australia LNG offline for weeks. Half its exports hit. This market has no buffer left. https://t.co/wV9mseaJW8 #LNG #EnergyCrisis #Oil #Geopolitics
Local Conflict Could Keep Brent Above $125 Longer
This is the advantage of having the conflict on your home turf and close targets. How does Brent not go above 125 and stay higher for longer if this escalates? https://t.co/gDEQNzeiGJ
Japan Redirects Naphtha Imports Amid Middle East Reliance
Japan is switching naphtha imports from the Middle East to other countries, says Prime Minister Takaichi 🇯🇵 ⛽️ Japan relies on the Mid East for >70% of naphtha imports, and has 20 days of stockpiles Shortages threaten supply of petrochemicals, plastics,...
Oil Upside Limited Even With Iranian Embargo, Brent at $115
I'm starting a new weekly video every Saturday morning on markets and macro. The first episode was yesterday. I discussed why upside to oil is limited even if we embargo Iranian oil. Brent at $115 already prices significant disruption. You...
Chokepoint Threats Spark Oil Volatility Opportunities
Smart take from @HolaPrimeTrade on the Hormuz situation 🎯 When key chokepoints get threatened, commodity traders need to be ready. Oil volatility = opportunity for those positioned right. Check https://t.co/pKoy2KGz8x for firms with the best energy trading conditions 🛢️⚡
Subtract 300k Bpd From 2026 Oil Demand Forecasts
⭕️For now, whatever your estimates of global oil consumption growth for 2026, subtract about 300 kb/d from it. This number will change as we move forward.
Oil Surge and Strong USD Favor Energy Exporters
Macro: Tadawul -0.13%; financials, real estate & retail lag. Oil jump (Brent $105) and firmer USD drive divergence. Risk: oil volatility, FX swings. Trade: buy energy exporters. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Turkey Alone Sells Gold Amid Fragile Currency Peg
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...
War‑Driven Energy Shock Pushes Importers Toward Alternatives
As the outbreak of a regional war disrupts global energy markets for the second time in four years, oil & gas importing countries will be motivated to find alternatives; coal, nuclear, renewables and EVs alike, as @bradplumer & Rebecca Elliott...
LNG Shortfall Threatens Global Gas‑Fired Power Generation
Gas-fired generation will be squeezed by LNG shortfall Global gas-fired electricity generation is likely to be among the hardest hit sectors following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the loss of production as a result of damage to two...
UK Cuts Gas Imports Despite Energy Security Risks
Latest instalment in the “Miliband is a moron” series Britain’s gas imports to be cut despite energy security threat https://t.co/EsJkZMM8LL
Hormuz Oil Flow Down 40%, Now Mostly Crude
Pre-war Strait of Hormuz flow (crude + products): ~20m b/d. My updated flow assumptions: Iran: ~1.5m b/d (SoH) UAE: ~1.0m b/d (Fujairah above pre-war) KSA: ~5.0m b/d (Yanbu above pre-war) Plus ~1.0m b/d (Non-Iranian SoH tankers) Plus >2.0m...
Refined Product Stress Spikes, California Diesel Tops $8
Taking stock 1 month into oil market madness: The stress is in refined products. Diesel Price topping $8 in California is picture perfect 👌
Indonesia's 2026 Nickel Quotas Tighten Feedstock, Not Oversupply
Indonesia nickel ore quotas may tighten feedstock supply in 2026 without solving oversupply in downstream nickel products. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/indonesia-nickel-ore-quotas-risk.html
Japan, Australia Currencies Slide Together
The upside to Japan’s risk aversion – ample petroleum reserves The Yen has weakened against the US$ since the Iran war drove the oil price higher, but so too has the AU$. Japan imports most of its energy needs, so a...
Houthis' Missile Threat Could Disrupt Red Sea Oil Flow
FEDWATCH: “.. the Houthis have entered the conflict by launching ballistic missile attacks ..; their next move could be targeting vessels in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb into the Red Sea .. The oil market, rightfully, is sensing that...
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Fuels Inflation, Stalls Rate Cuts
The war in Iran has set off a chain of events, with soaring oil prices driving higher inflation expectations, lower rate cut odds, and a pullback in precious metals.
Past $90‑$100 Oil Deemed Normal, Now Sparks Panic
Pretty wild how WTI crude oil averaged $90-$100 from late 2010 to late 2014.. and everyone just assumed that was normal. Total freakout today... (even with significantly higher average and median hourly earnings) https://t.co/L6XCC4Wf8y
Gas Prices Near $4, Expected Spike to $4.20 Soon
Gas prices steady under $4, but I think the average will jump quickly to $4.20 by mid next week @gasbuddy @gasbuddyguy https://t.co/AWxp7hHZsD
Sugar Prices Poised for Explosive Breakout, Societal Impact
Sugar prices are just starting to move after rebounding from a key historical support level. This could turn into a highly explosive move in my view Few assets carry such significant societal implications if they begin to rally. Similar setups here: https://t.co/Z2VnzWMQwd https://t.co/u0ocJ7NrVj
Fertilizer Shortage Triggers Crop Switch, Exposes Biofuel Policy Flaws
Given the nitrogen fertilizer shortages leading to more corn to soybean planting switches, I'll bet the eventual cost of the biofuel mandates is more than this. An idiotic policy.
Europe Must Drill Oil and Gas Immediately
As the Battle for #Hormuz continues, European consumers are getting hammered by soaring oil and natural gas prices. Why? Europe’s leaders have outsourced their energy security. The path forward is obvious: #Europe has to start drilling for #oil and gas...
Trump Biofuels Bailout Hikes Gas, Food Prices, Harms Environment
The Trump administration's new biofuels bailout means higher US gas and food prices and worse environmental outcomes. But at least farmers will get another $3-4B from the government. https://t.co/OCutylNA8t
Arab Light Is Medium Sour, Not Brent‑compatible Light
💥Saudi Arab Light crude is not light; it is medium sour. Dubai/Oman crudes are medium sour. Brent is light sweet. Pricing Arab Light off Brent doesn’t make sense, whether geographically or quality-wise. https://t.co/AAkqiuh6HA
EU Commissioner Mulls Gas Price Cap Amid Shortages
As reported by the respected French newspaper Le Monde, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen considers capping gas prices "a possibility" amid oil shortages. IT'S TIME FOR THE EU'S JORGENSEN TO GET REAL AND PULL OUT A PHOTO OF THE GAS LINES...
Middle East Conflict Fuels Oil Surge, Exposing Europe’s Fragility
Energy shock exposes Europe’s vulnerability as oil prices surge Linda Yueh explains how Middle East conflict is driving oil volatility and heightening risks https://t.co/j96NMGNF8A
U.S. Gas Prices Up 30%, Still Below $5
Not all oil prices are created equal. There's only one that matters: what Americans pay at the pump. That price is up 30% from before the war (bottom right). That's up, but - at $4 a gallon - we're nowhere...
War‑Driven Supply Shock Meets Fading Peak‑Demand, Fueling Post‑Conflict Boom
Gulf War III is far from over. Long-term impacts are très TBD. But it's noteworthy that, just prior to the outbreak, the consensus peak-demand narrative for oil and gas began to crumble. Folks started to realize we're short...
Quarter of Global LNG Supply Offline After Attacks, Cyclone
And just like that, a quarter of global LNG supply is offline 🚢 ⚠️ Hormuz/Iran attacks have disrupted deliveries from Qatar and UAE Cyclone temporarily knocks out plants in Western Australia (Nice graphic from IEA’s Greg Molnar) https://t.co/ymJmTrTZGx
Oil May Rally to $109 Before Confirming Top
$USOIL - As I've already stated I think it made a major top at 119.48 but the top will not be confirmed until there's a weekly close below 90. The weekly candle is bullish and indicates that it may rally...
Silver Poised for Short‑term Bounce, Bull Market Ended
$Silver - Made a multi week low at the yearly pivot at 61. I expect a multi week bounce into late April/early May. The bounce could get to as high as the 1st yearly resistance at 94. The bull market...
Gold Poised for Multi‑week Bounce to $5,028
$Gold - The weekly candle is bullish and indicates that it made a multi week low this week. I think it made a major top in late January and is following the 2011 price pattern. I expect a multi week...
US Natgas Deficit Narrows, Spot Price Slides to $
U.S natural gas comparative fell 19 bcf to a deficit of 3 bcf week ending March 20 Spot price fell $0.08 to $3.11 as markets normalize Gulf War effects for US fundamentals #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/wucXOSeNAM
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Mining Metal Supply Crisis Needs More Than Prices
I’m sure higher energy prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing wars will go a long way in solving the problem of getting mines to produce the metals we desperately need. The world still underestimates the scale of the problem: A lack of...
Dissecting Iran War, Oil Shock: Macro, Narrative, Flow Insights
However you want to analyze the Iran war and oil shock, @CultishCreative and I have it covered on the latest Last Call on @excessreturnpod. @dampedspring on macro @EpsilonTheory on narrative @spotgamma on flows @ericpachman on what the jobs data misses https://t.co/bbX3cSwFWe
Rising Nominal Rates, Falling Real Rates Boost Gold
Many are attributing the fall in precious metals to rising real interest rates. That's wrong. Real rates (red) have fallen. The rise in nominal interest rates (black) is all about break-even inflation (blue) rising. That's fundamentally good for gold... https://t.co/5amZtGPz0B https://t.co/t11fMQc7JV
War Spikes Oil, Gold Falls, Bonds Surge Globally
Many things are happening simultaneously. War in the Middle East is spiking oil prices, gold has fallen and all the uncertainty is pushing up long bond yields, like in Japan where they're back to the highs. I'll talk about all...
US LNG in High Demand After Qatar Plant Shutdown
Many such cases 🇺🇸 🚢 Asian and European LNG buyers are chasing the limited number of shipments still available from US suppliers after the world’s largest export plant in Qatar was shut Importers from Japan and Germany are among those in...